Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 169 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.1 m (14 Mar 23:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 169 km/h 2.1 m 626 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique701490 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 169 -
- - - - - Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 3.2 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe26548
+
Mozambique26538 
Zimbabwe10 
250-500 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe1336522
+
Mozambique1307282 
Zimbabwe29240 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe1792830
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo669 
Mozambique1379455 
Madagascar2551 
Zimbabwe410155 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa5237005
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo1415461 
Burundi55050 
Tanzania59810 
Zambia466701 
Malawi714067 
Mozambique1096944 
Madagascar80471 
Zimbabwe1213627 
South Africa134874 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 590 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 592 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 573 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 667 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 643 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 649 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 548 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 626 3.2 million
- - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.1m in Nova Sofala, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 14 Mar 2019 23:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 13 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Nova Sofala Mozambique  2.1
14 Mar 2019 21:00 Damiao Mozambique  1.9
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Nhangau Mozambique  1.9
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.9
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Panaca Mozambique  1.9
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Tama Mozambique  1.9
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Jonja Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Divinhe Mozambique  1.6
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Chiloane Mozambique  1.6
14 Mar 2019 17:00 Bingue Mozambique  1.1
14 Mar 2019 16:15 Rupia Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 16:15 Machesse Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Jo Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Laisse Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 23:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 06:15 Amado Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Afonso Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Catine Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Caulino Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Mariano Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Asneira Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Barra Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 07:00 Colchester South Africa  0.3
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 21:30 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Memba Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Formone Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 20:45 China Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Uetela Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 22:30 Beula Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 22:30 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 22:30 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 22:30 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 22:30 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 01:00 Richmond South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Metula Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 19:45 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:30 Kasouga South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:00 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:00 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Watamu Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Malindi Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:45 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:45 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:45 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:30 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:30 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:30 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1

Calculation folder at this link