Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (14 Mar 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 176 km/h 0.8 m 590 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar16908 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 176 -
- - - - - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 200 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Malawi196747
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo56469 
Tanzania43520 
Malawi96758 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Burundi, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa4431473
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo1332802 
Tanzania1285438 
Burundi115830 
Zambia1028240 
Malawi218730 
Mozambique97844 
Madagascar6290 
South Africa346299 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 590 200 thousand
- - - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Burundi, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 14 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Tama Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.7
11 Mar 2019 18:30 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 18:30 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 18:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 18:30 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 18:30 Manampea Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 18:30 Antsafy Madagascar  0.5
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.4
11 Mar 2019 18:15 Onara Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 18:15 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 18:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.4
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Amado Mozambique  0.4
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Jo Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.3
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
12 Mar 2019 08:45 Manomba Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 08:45 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 08:45 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 09:15 Belailay Madagascar  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 17:45 Laisse Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 17:45 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Mulia Mozambique  0.3
12 Mar 2019 08:15 Maintirano Madagascar  0.3
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Barra Mozambique  0.3
12 Mar 2019 12:15 Colchester South Africa  0.2
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 12:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 12:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 12:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Afonso Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Catine Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Caulino Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Mariano Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Asneira Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:15 Richmond South Africa  0.2
11 Mar 2019 19:00 Memba Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 19:00 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 19:00 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 19:00 Formone Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 19:00 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 19:00 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 19:00 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 19:00 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:15 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:15 Kasouga South Africa  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:30 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:30 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Chichocane Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:15 China Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Mahoa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 18:15 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:45 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:15 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:15 Uetela Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:45 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:45 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:15 Beula Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:15 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:15 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:15 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:15 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:45 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 12:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 19:45 Mipande Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 19:45 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 19:45 Foque Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 19:45 Ibo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Bandarini Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Kutani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Buuni Village Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 12:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 12:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Kawi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Kipara Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Msasani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Magogoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Mjimwema Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:15 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 12:30 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 19:30 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 19:30 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 19:30 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:30 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:30 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:30 Metula Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 13:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 12:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:45 Momade Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 18:45 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:15 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 12:30 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 12:30 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link