Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (06 Apr 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 90 km/h 0.4 m 99 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 133 km/h 2.5 m 625 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

133 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 06 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 166 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmIndonesia987,335 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 274 280 thousand
- - - - Timor-Leste, Indonesia
Blue 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 160 50 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 155 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 127 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 233 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 204 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 497 -
- - - - - Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Derby, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Apr 2021 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Apr 2021 13:00 Derby Australia  0.4
06 Apr 2021 17:45 Broome Australia  0.4
06 Apr 2021 16:00 Pender Australia  0.4
06 Apr 2021 17:30 Thangoo Australia  0.4
06 Apr 2021 15:45 Waterbank Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 13:00 Dampier Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 13:00 Karratha Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 15:45 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 13:45 Mardie Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 12:00 Kollan I Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 13:15 East Lewis I Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 12:30 Wickham Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 13:00 Point Samson Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 13:00 Cossack Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 12:15 Port Hedland Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 12:15 Wedgefield Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 15:00 Kandangan Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 15:00 Gresik Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 15:00 Pangkalan Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 15:00 Batoe Porong Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 15:00 Kebanjar Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 14:00 Ah Chong I Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 13:00 Sidoardjo Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Baliga Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Laboean Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 17:15 Pardoo Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 12:30 Pasuruan Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 17:00 Condon Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 16:15 Maringgai Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 13:00 Sumberkuning Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 12:45 Bayeman Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 12:15 Onslow Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 12:30 Sampang Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 13:45 Maoe Ndai Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 13:45 Manoeran Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 13:45 Pigadjawa Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 13:45 Nangaboa Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 13:45 Waroe Kasoe Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 13:45 Wassa Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 12:30 Chilachap Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 12:30 Adipala Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 12:30 Binangoen Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Oeboeah Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Hansisi Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Naioni Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Tenau Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Manoelairoti Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Namosain Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Kupang Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Soelamoe Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Maoelafa Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Pitai Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Manikin Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Pariti Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Naimoeti Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 15:00 Domas Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:00 Blimbing Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:00 Dadapan Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:00 Banyuwangi Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:00 Banjuwangi Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:00 Soega Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:00 Gilimanuk Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:00 Penginoeman Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:00 Belimbingsari Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:00 Tjandikesuma Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 13:15 Probolinggo Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Koekoewerang Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Throng Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Lamakera Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Wotanglolong Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Lewokeling Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Boleng Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Lamararap Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Lewoleba Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:15 Lamanuna Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 15:45 Tanara Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 15:45 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:00 Aplame Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:00 Woereh Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:00 Lewohajong Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:00 Adoenara Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:00 Papelawe Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:00 Sagu Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:00 Witihama Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:00 Nereng Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 15:00 Merak Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 16:30 Tampoena Wo Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 16:30 Wasalangka Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 14:45 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1