Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population 2 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 97 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.2 m (11 Apr 09:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 97 km/h 2.2 m 131 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 133 km/h 2.5 m 625 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

133 km/h

Up to 100 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Apr 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Australia1,650 
Tropical StormAustralia103,658 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Apr 2021 06:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 08 Apr 2021 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 08 Apr 2021 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 09 Apr 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 09 Apr 2021 06:00 133 2 thousand
- - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Apr 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Australia5,378,021
+
Indonesia5,366,426 
Australia11,595 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 274 280 thousand
- - - - Timor-Leste, Indonesia
Blue 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 160 50 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 155 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 127 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 233 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 204 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 220 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 255 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 296 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 318 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Apr 2021 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 08 Apr 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 08 Apr 2021 18:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 09 Apr 2021 00:00 185 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 09 Apr 2021 06:00 303 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.2m in Useless Loop, Australia. This height is estimated for 11 Apr 2021 09:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Apr 2021 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Apr 2021 09:15 Useless Loop Australia  2.2
11 Apr 2021 10:45 Tamala Australia  2.2
11 Apr 2021 09:15 Dirk Hartog Australia  2.0
11 Apr 2021 10:45 Hamelin Pool Australia  1.9
11 Apr 2021 10:45 Hamelin Australia  1.9
11 Apr 2021 12:15 Nanga Australia  1.8
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Carrarang Australia  1.7
11 Apr 2021 14:00 Gladstone Australia  1.7
11 Apr 2021 09:45 Denham Australia  1.6
11 Apr 2021 14:00 Shark Bay Australia  1.4
11 Apr 2021 14:00 Monkey Mia Australia  1.4
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Kalbarri Australia  0.9
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Gregory Australia  0.9
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Lynton Australia  0.9
11 Apr 2021 13:00 Geraldton Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 13:00 Drummond Cove Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 13:00 Popes Landing Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 13:00 Waggrakine Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 13:00 Horrocks Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 13:15 Greenough Australia  0.6
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Denison Australia  0.6
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Port Denison Australia  0.6
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Dongara Australia  0.6
11 Apr 2021 10:00 Carnarvon Australia  0.6
10 Apr 2021 11:15 Learmonth Australia  0.5
11 Apr 2021 15:30 Illawong Australia  0.5
11 Apr 2021 15:45 Coolimba Australia  0.5
11 Apr 2021 16:15 Leeman Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 16:15 Green Head Australia  0.4
10 Apr 2021 10:30 Exmouth Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 07:45 Quobba Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 16:30 Jurien Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 09:45 Mardie Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 07:45 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 07:30 East Lewis I Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 07:30 Dampier Australia  0.3
10 Apr 2021 06:30 Onslow Australia  0.3
10 Apr 2021 13:15 Glenroy Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Cervantes Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 07:00 Thangoo Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 10:00 Wickham Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 10:00 Point Samson Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 10:00 Cossack Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 07:15 Broome Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 09:15 Ah Chong I Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 10:15 Karratha Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 13:30 Derby Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Lancelin Australia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 14:00 Warroora Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 08:00 Condon Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 08:00 Pardoo Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 08:15 Port Hedland Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 08:15 Wedgefield Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Kandangan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Gresik Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Pangkalan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Batoe Porong Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Kebanjar Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Dalyellup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Bunbury Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Binningup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Myalup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Picton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Eaton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Burragenup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Australind Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Vasse Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Broadwater Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Busselton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Wonnerup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Ludlow Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Dunsborough Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Quindalup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:45 Seabird Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 07:00 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Guilderton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Gunyulgup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Yallingup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Falcon Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Safety Bay Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Mandurah Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Warnbro Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Peelhurst Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Singleton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Karnup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Rockingham Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Wattleup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Two Rocks Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Yanchep Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Fremantle Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 North Fremantle Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 East Fremantle Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Coogee Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Spearwood Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 03:00 Maringgai Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:45 Quinns Rock Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:00 Baliga Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:00 Laboean Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 North Beach Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Scarborough Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Mosman Park Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Cottesloe Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 06:00 Waterbank Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:30 Peppermint Grove Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:30 Swanbourne Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:30 Claremont Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:30 Bicton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Mullalloo Beach Australia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 13:30 Cardabia Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 05:00 Doombup Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Sidoardjo Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Gracetown Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 05:15 Esperance Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Pasuruan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:45 Sumberkuning Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:15 Kramat Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:15 Cengkarengbelakang Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:15 Tipar Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 16:00 Domas Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 16:00 Tanara Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 16:00 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 06:15 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Sampang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Bayeman Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Probolinggo Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Gending Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 15:30 Merak Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 04:45 Sidaju Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Kraksaan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Karagajar Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 03:15 Balubuk Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Galis Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:00 Prenduan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 03:15 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 05:15 Tlagabiru Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 05:15 Banjoeates Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 05:15 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 05:15 Kelapang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 05:15 Sokabana Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 05:45 Aermata Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 05:45 Klampis Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 05:45 Sapulu Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 20:15 Cilancang Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 20:15 Cirebon Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 21:45 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 04:15 Tambak Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 04:15 Sangkapura Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Besuki Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Djate Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Bluto Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Saroka Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Sumenep Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Bundan Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 20:30 Karangampel Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 17:15 Pender Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 04:30 Plosokere Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 04:30 Djenu Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 04:30 Tuban Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 04:30 Semanding Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 04:30 Podang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 04:30 Brondong Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 21:00 Losan Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 03:45 Ambunten-timu Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 03:45 Belukares Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 03:45 Batuputihkenek Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Mandingan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Gedugan Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 20:15 Bulakamba Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Kiluan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Kekatang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Menango Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Telukbetung Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 03:30 Lombang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 03:30 Banraas Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 20:15 Klampok Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 03:30 Bakau Indonesia  0.1