Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 97 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (10 Apr 08:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 97 km/h 0.9 m 296 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 133 km/h 2.5 m 625 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

133 km/h

Up to 10 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia9,685 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 180 -
- - - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmIndonesia15,558 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 274 280 thousand
- - - - Timor-Leste, Indonesia
Blue 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 160 50 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 155 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 127 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 233 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 204 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 220 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 255 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 502 -
- - - - - Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.9m in Learmonth, Australia. This height is estimated for 10 Apr 2021 08:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Apr 2021 08:30 Learmonth Australia  0.9
10 Apr 2021 08:00 Exmouth Australia  0.6
10 Apr 2021 08:45 Onslow Australia  0.5
10 Apr 2021 08:00 Mardie Australia  0.5
08 Apr 2021 08:30 Wickham Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 08:30 Point Samson Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 08:30 Cossack Australia  0.4
10 Apr 2021 08:30 Glenroy Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 08:00 Karratha Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 07:15 Dampier Australia  0.4
07 Apr 2021 19:30 Broome Australia  0.4
09 Apr 2021 01:45 East Lewis I Australia  0.4
07 Apr 2021 19:45 Thangoo Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 05:45 Port Hedland Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 05:45 Wedgefield Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 19:00 Ah Chong I Australia  0.3
07 Apr 2021 15:15 Derby Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 06:00 Condon Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 06:00 Pardoo Australia  0.3
07 Apr 2021 18:30 Waterbank Australia  0.3
07 Apr 2021 18:45 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.3
10 Apr 2021 11:15 Warroora Australia  0.3
10 Apr 2021 11:30 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 11:30 Dirk Hartog Australia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 11:30 Useless Loop Australia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 10:30 Carnarvon Australia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 17:15 Kandangan Indonesia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 17:15 Gresik Indonesia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 17:15 Pangkalan Indonesia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 17:15 Batoe Porong Indonesia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 17:15 Kebanjar Indonesia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 09:15 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 09:15 Quobba Australia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 16:00 Pender Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 23:15 Tamala Australia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 12:00 Kollan I Australia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 11:15 Cardabia Australia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 16:45 Baliga Indonesia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 16:45 Laboean Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 23:00 Carrarang Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 23:00 Nanga Australia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 15:15 Pasuruan Indonesia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 16:00 Sidoardjo Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 11:45 Hamelin Pool Australia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 16:00 Sumberkuning Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 08:45 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 08:30 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:15 Maringgai Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:45 Domas Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:45 Tanara Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:45 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 15:30 Bayeman Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 12:00 Shark Bay Australia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 12:00 Monkey Mia Australia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 15:45 Sampang Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 15:15 Probolinggo Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 15:00 Gending Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 15:00 Kraksaan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:30 Kramat Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:45 Cengkarengbelakang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:45 Tipar Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:30 Balubuk Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 15:00 Karagajar Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 22:00 Denham Australia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 15:00 Galis Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 15:00 Prenduan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 23:30 Hamelin Australia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:15 Cilancang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:15 Cirebon Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 15:15 Besuki Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:15 Karangampel Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:15 Losan Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:45 Djate Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:00 Merak Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:30 Bluto Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:30 Saroka Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:30 Sumenep Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:30 Bundan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:00 Bulakamba Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:30 Sidaju Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 13:00 Tambajangan Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 13:00 Kajuwaru Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:30 Mandingan Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:30 Gedugan Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:45 Aplame Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:45 Woereh Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:45 Lewohajong Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:45 Koekoewerang Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:45 Throng Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:45 Adoenara Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:45 Lamakera Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:45 Papelawe Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:45 Sagu Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:45 Wotanglolong Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:45 Lewokeling Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:45 Witihama Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:45 Boleng Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 14:45 Nereng Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 23:15 Klampok Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:30 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 22:15 Pekalongan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 22:15 Sidja Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 07:00 Adipala Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 07:00 Binangoen Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 07:00 Ajah Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 08:15 Maoe Ndai Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 08:15 Manoeran Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 08:15 Pigadjawa Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 08:15 Nangaboa Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 08:15 Waroe Kasoe Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 08:15 Wassa Indonesia  0.1