Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Indonesia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 133 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (05 Apr 20:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 133 km/h 0.3 m 233 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 133 km/h 2.5 m 625 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Apr 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndonesia77,771 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 162 -
- - - - - Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:

Rainfall

625 mm

Up to Few people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Apr 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndonesia08 
50-100 mmIndonesia18,723,615 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 274 280 thousand
- - - - Timor-Leste, Indonesia
Blue 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 160 50 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 155 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 127 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 525 Few people
- - - - Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Dampier, Australia. This height is estimated for 05 Apr 2021 20:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Apr 2021 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Dampier Australia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Karratha Australia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 20:45 Derby Australia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 22:30 Pender Australia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 20:00 Wickham Australia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 20:00 Point Samson Australia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 20:00 Cossack Australia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Menango Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Tandjungkarang Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Telukbetung Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Tarahan Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 23:30 Kollan I Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 20:00 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 20:45 Mardie Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Broome Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Kiluan Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Kekatang Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Thangoo Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 19:45 Port Hedland Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 19:45 Wedgefield Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:45 Tanahkadukung Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:45 Baing Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:30 Sidaju Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:30 Gresik Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:30 Pangkalan Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:30 Batoe Porong Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Aplame Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Woereh Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Lewohajong Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Koekoewerang Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Throng Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Adoenara Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Lamakera Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Papelawe Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Sagu Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Wotanglolong Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Lewokeling Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Witihama Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Boleng Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Nereng Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:45 Ngalu Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:45 Tapil Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Vasse Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Broadwater Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Busselton Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Wonnerup Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Ludlow Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Padangan-wetan Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Kalipang Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Lemanbang Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Tambakbaja Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:15 Manoekangga Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:15 Lalindi Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Lewoleba Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Lamanuna Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Safety Bay Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Rockingham Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Fremantle Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Warnbro Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 North Fremantle Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 East Fremantle Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Coogee Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Spearwood Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Wattleup Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Cilancang Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Cirebon Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 23:45 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Losan Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 23:15 Waterbank Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:30 Ah Chong I Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Karangampel Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:15 Remen Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:15 Plosokere Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:15 Djenu Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:15 Tuban Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:15 Semanding Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:15 Podang Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 23:15 Gunyulgup Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 23:15 Yallingup Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 23:15 Dunsborough Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 23:15 Quindalup Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 23:45 Lamararap Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:00 Taju Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:00 Bulumanis Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:00 Batangan Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:00 Rembang Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 19:15 Dalyellup Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 19:15 Bunbury Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 19:15 Binningup Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 19:15 Myalup Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 19:15 Picton Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 19:15 Eaton Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 19:15 Burragenup Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 19:15 Australind Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Bulakamba Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Oetefoe-besar Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Besdale Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Silain Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Oetefoe-ketjil Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Butuinan Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Hala Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Oeboeah Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Hansisi Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Naioni Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Tenau Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Manoelairoti Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Namosain Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Kupang Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Soelamoe Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Maoelafa Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:15 Pitai Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:45 Brondong Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:00 Karangsari Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 23:45 Maoe Ndai Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 23:45 Manoeran Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 23:45 Pigadjawa Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 23:45 Nangaboa Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 23:45 Waroe Kasoe Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 23:45 Wassa Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Merapo Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:00 Mangkang-Kulan Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:00 Djomblang Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:00 Semarang Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:00 Karangroto Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Lasem Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:45 Huu Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:45 Madawa Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:45 Polo Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Tambak Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Sangkapura Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:00 Manikin Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:00 Pariti Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 20:00 Naimoeti Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Sindangsari Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Cijulang Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Cikalong Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Pangadaran Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 22:00 Onslow Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 19:15 Umbulan Pepanggar Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Boedae Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:45 Waingapu Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:45 Matawai Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:45 Pajeti Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:45 Lakohembi Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 22:15 Pekalongan Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 22:15 Sidja Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:45 Maoedoeloeng Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:30 Praigaga Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:30 Omatena Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 19:00 Karanggondang Indonesia  0.1