Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population 40 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.4 m (11 Apr 08:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 90 km/h 2.4 m 189 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 133 km/h 2.5 m 625 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

133 km/h

Up to 40 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Apr 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Australia36,705 
Tropical StormAustralia35,789 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Apr 2021 06:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 08 Apr 2021 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 08 Apr 2021 18:00 148 40 thousand
- - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Apr 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Australia12,935,808
+
Indonesia12,928,060 
Australia7,748 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 274 280 thousand
- - - - Timor-Leste, Indonesia
Blue 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 160 50 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 155 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 127 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 233 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 204 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 220 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 255 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 296 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 318 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Apr 2021 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 08 Apr 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 08 Apr 2021 18:00 295 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.4m in Useless Loop, Australia. This height is estimated for 11 Apr 2021 08:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Apr 2021 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Apr 2021 08:45 Useless Loop Australia  2.4
11 Apr 2021 10:45 Tamala Australia  2.2
11 Apr 2021 09:00 Dirk Hartog Australia  2.2
11 Apr 2021 14:45 Hamelin Pool Australia  2.1
11 Apr 2021 14:45 Hamelin Australia  2.1
11 Apr 2021 11:45 Nanga Australia  1.9
11 Apr 2021 11:45 Carrarang Australia  1.8
11 Apr 2021 14:00 Gladstone Australia  1.8
11 Apr 2021 09:15 Denham Australia  1.8
11 Apr 2021 13:30 Shark Bay Australia  1.5
11 Apr 2021 13:30 Monkey Mia Australia  1.5
11 Apr 2021 13:30 Geraldton Australia  1.0
11 Apr 2021 13:30 Drummond Cove Australia  1.0
11 Apr 2021 13:30 Popes Landing Australia  1.0
11 Apr 2021 13:30 Waggrakine Australia  1.0
11 Apr 2021 11:45 Kalbarri Australia  0.9
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Denison Australia  0.9
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Port Denison Australia  0.9
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Dongara Australia  0.9
11 Apr 2021 13:15 Horrocks Australia  0.9
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Gregory Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Lynton Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 13:30 Greenough Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 15:30 Illawong Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 15:30 Coolimba Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 09:00 Carnarvon Australia  0.7
10 Apr 2021 09:15 Learmonth Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 15:30 Leeman Australia  0.6
11 Apr 2021 15:45 Green Head Australia  0.5
10 Apr 2021 09:00 Exmouth Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 16:00 Jurien Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 18:00 Mardie Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 07:45 Quobba Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 18:00 Wickham Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 18:00 Point Samson Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 18:00 Cossack Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 06:45 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 21:15 East Lewis I Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 21:15 Dampier Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 18:00 Karratha Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 16:15 Cervantes Australia  0.3
10 Apr 2021 09:15 Onslow Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 20:45 Broome Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 20:00 Ah Chong I Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 20:45 Thangoo Australia  0.3
10 Apr 2021 09:15 Glenroy Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Lancelin Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 22:30 Port Hedland Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 22:30 Wedgefield Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 13:30 Derby Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Fremantle Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 North Fremantle Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Mosman Park Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Cottesloe Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 East Fremantle Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Coogee Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Peppermint Grove Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Swanbourne Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Claremont Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Spearwood Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Bicton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Wattleup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:30 Seabird Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Vasse Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Broadwater Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Busselton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Wonnerup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Ludlow Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 02:45 Warroora Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 03:15 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:45 Two Rocks Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:45 Yanchep Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:45 Quinns Rock Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Guilderton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Mullalloo Beach Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 North Beach Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Scarborough Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Falcon Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Mandurah Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Peelhurst Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Singleton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Karnup Australia  0.2
08 Apr 2021 22:00 Condon Australia  0.2
08 Apr 2021 19:45 Waterbank Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Safety Bay Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Rockingham Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Warnbro Australia  0.2
08 Apr 2021 22:45 Pardoo Australia  0.2
08 Apr 2021 19:30 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:30 Kandangan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:30 Gresik Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:30 Pangkalan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:30 Batoe Porong Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:30 Kebanjar Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Binningup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Myalup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Dunsborough Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Quindalup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Gunyulgup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Yallingup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Dalyellup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Bunbury Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Picton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Eaton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Burragenup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Australind Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 00:15 Cardabia Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:30 Gracetown Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Baliga Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Laboean Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Pasuruan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Sidoardjo Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 17:15 Pender Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Bayeman Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:00 Sumberkuning Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Sampang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Probolinggo Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Gending Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Kraksaan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 16:00 Domas Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 16:00 Tanara Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 16:00 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Karagajar Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:15 Maringgai Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:00 Galis Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:00 Prenduan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:15 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:45 Besuki Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 15:30 Kramat Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:00 Losan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Djate Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Bluto Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 15:15 Merak Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Saroka Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Bundan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Mandingan Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:45 Cengkarengbelakang Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:45 Tipar Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 23:45 Cilancang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 23:45 Cirebon Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Sumenep Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Gedugan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:00 Sidaju Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 21:15 Kendal Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 21:15 Mangkang-Kulan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 21:15 Djomblang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 21:15 Semarang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 21:15 Karangroto Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 23:30 Bulakamba Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 23:45 Karangampel Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 03:00 Chilachap Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 03:00 Adipala Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 03:00 Binangoen Indonesia  0.1