Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Indonesia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (06 Apr 04:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 115 km/h 0.3 m 94 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 133 km/h 2.5 m 625 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

133 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Apr 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndonesia08 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 166 -
- - - - - Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Apr 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndonesia2,720 
50-100 mmIndonesia9,845,195 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 274 280 thousand
- - - - Timor-Leste, Indonesia
Blue 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 160 50 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 155 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 127 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 233 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 504 3 thousand
- - - - Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Dampier, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Apr 2021 04:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Apr 2021 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Apr 2021 04:15 Dampier Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 04:15 Karratha Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 05:00 Pender Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 05:45 Mardie Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 04:00 Wickham Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 03:45 Point Samson Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 03:45 Cossack Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 04:00 Port Hedland Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 04:00 Wedgefield Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 05:00 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 03:00 Maringgai Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 05:15 Kollan I Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 02:15 Kramat Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 02:15 Cengkarengbelakang Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 02:15 Tipar Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Waterbank Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Broome Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Derby Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 02:15 Ketapang Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 02:30 Domas Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 02:30 Tanara Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 04:30 Menango Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 04:30 Tandjungkarang Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 04:30 Telukbetung Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 04:30 Tarahan Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 02:00 Balubuk Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:30 Thangoo Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 02:15 Merak Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 04:00 Kekatang Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Aplame Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Woereh Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Lewohajong Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Koekoewerang Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Throng Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Adoenara Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Lamakera Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Papelawe Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Sagu Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Wotanglolong Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Lewokeling Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Witihama Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Boleng Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Nereng Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 02:15 Ketapang Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 04:30 Kiluan Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:15 Cilancang Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:15 Cirebon Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Condon Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Pardoo Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Lewoleba Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Lamanuna Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:15 Oeboeah Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:15 Hansisi Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:15 Naioni Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:15 Tenau Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:15 Manoelairoti Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:15 Namosain Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:15 Kupang Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:15 Soelamoe Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:15 Maoelafa Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:15 Pitai Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:15 Manikin Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:15 Pariti Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:15 Naimoeti Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:00 Losan Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:15 Karangampel Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 03:15 Pedes Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 03:15 Sungaibuntu Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:00 Lamararap Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:00 Bakau Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 01:30 Tambajangan Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 01:30 Kajuwaru Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:30 Ah Chong I Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:15 Bulakamba Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 03:15 Maoe Ndai Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 03:15 Manoeran Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 03:15 Pigadjawa Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 03:15 Nangaboa Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 03:15 Waroe Kasoe Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 03:15 Wassa Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:45 Safety Bay Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:45 Rockingham Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:45 Fremantle Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:45 Warnbro Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:45 North Fremantle Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:45 East Fremantle Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:45 Coogee Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:45 Spearwood Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:45 Wattleup Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:15 Vasse Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:15 Broadwater Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:15 Busselton Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:15 Wonnerup Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:15 Ludlow Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 05:45 Onslow Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:30 Ngalu Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:30 Tapil Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:00 Anjer-Kidu Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 04:15 Umbulan Pepanggar Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 03:30 Lalindi Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 03:45 Kalianda Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 03:45 Kolitjaah Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 03:45 Tjiteureup Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 03:45 Labuhan Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 03:45 Kaduperasi Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 01:30 Manoekangga Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 02:30 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 02:30 Muaratjilamaja Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:45 Oetefoe-besar Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:45 Besdale Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:45 Silain Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:45 Oetefoe-ketjil Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:45 Butuinan Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 00:45 Hala Indonesia  0.1