Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 28.3S 114.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 31 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3S 114.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 32.4S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 36.2S 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 29.3S 115.8E.
11APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED 10 NM EYE FEATURE JUST
CROSSING THE SHORELINE NEAR PORT GREGORY, AUSTRALIA AT THE 111200Z
HOUR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE REGION, THE EIR EYE FEATURE AND
A WELL-DEFINED RADAR EYE COMBINED TO LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KTS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE OF MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM PGTW AND
APRF, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SURFACE PRESSURE READINGS NEAR 976 MB
FROM NEARBY OBSERVATION SITES WHICH SUPPORT AN INTENSITY IN THE 65-
70 KNOT RANGE. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 65 KTS AT THE GERALDTON AIRPORT
PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 26S IS
BEING STEERED RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM RACES SOUTHEAST OVER
INLAND AUSTRALIA IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
SHEAR AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. THE SIMULTANEOUS DEVELOPMENT OF DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THERMAL ADVECTION WILL SIGNAL THE COMMENCEMENT
OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, WITH
FULL TRANSITION EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 24, LIKELY BY TAU 18,
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS
28 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 111500
WARNING ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210411133100
2021041112 26S SEROJA 029 01 135 31 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 283S 1144E 070 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 100 SE QD 055 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 324S 1198E 050
T024 362S 1262E 030
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 029
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 28.3S 114.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 31 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3S 114.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 32.4S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 36.2S 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 29.3S 115.8E.
11APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED 10 NM EYE FEATURE JUST CROSSING THE SHORELINE NEAR PORT GREGORY, AUSTRALIA AT THE 111200Z HOUR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE REGION, THE EIR EYE FEATURE AND A WELL-DEFINED RADAR EYE COMBINED TO LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SURFACE PRESSURE READINGS NEAR 976 MB FROM NEARBY OBSERVATION SITES WHICH SUPPORT AN INTENSITY IN THE 65-70 KNOT RANGE. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 65 KTS AT THE GERALDTON AIRPORT PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 26S IS BEING STEERED RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM RACES SOUTHEAST OVER INLAND AUSTRALIA IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. THE SIMULTANEOUS DEVELOPMENT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THERMAL ADVECTION WILL SIGNAL THE COMMENCEMENT OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, WITH FULL TRANSITION EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 24, LIKELY BY TAU 18, ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 28 FEET.//
2621040112 93S1219E 25
2621040118 96S1218E 25
2621040200 100S1219E 20
2621040206 104S1222E 20
2621040212 110S1223E 25
2621040218 113S1227E 25
2621040300 113S1230E 25
2621040306 111S1232E 25
2621040312 107S1238E 30
2621040318 107S1240E 30
2621040400 105S1241E 30
2621040406 101S1239E 30
2621040412 104S1232E 35
2621040418 105S1229E 45
2621040500 108S1224E 45
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040618 125S1189E 45
2621040700 133S1180E 45
2621040706 142S1168E 45
2621040712 151S1156E 45
2621040718 158S1140E 45
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040818 184S1110E 45
2621040900 190S1101E 45
2621040906 196S1095E 55
2621040912 200S1089E 60
2621040912 200S1089E 60
2621040918 203S1085E 60
2621040918 203S1085E 60
2621041000 206S1082E 55
2621041000 206S1082E 55
2621041006 209S1082E 60
2621041006 209S1082E 60
2621041012 216S1088E 65
2621041012 216S1088E 65
2621041018 227S1096E 65
2621041018 227S1096E 65
2621041018 227S1096E 65
2621041100 242S1105E 65
2621041100 242S1105E 65
2621041100 242S1105E 65
2621041106 261S1120E 70
2621041106 261S1120E 70
2621041106 261S1120E 70
2621041112 283S1144E 70
2621041112 283S1144E 70
2621041112 283S1144E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 26.1S 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 30.2S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 34.7S 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 113.1E.
11APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK EYE FEATURE. A 110630Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT CORE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF THE CIRCULATION AND A WELL DEFINED 7NM WIDE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE EYE FEATURE WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
RADAR DATA FROM THE CARNARVON AIRPORT RADAR SITE. THE COMBINATION OF
THE DATA CONFIRMING THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE RADAR, VISIBLE AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE,
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND APRF, AND KNES AT T5.0 (90 KTS).
ADT WAS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AT T3.1, BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE
MICROWAVE AND RADAR EYE PROVIDED STRONG SUPPORT FOR AN INCREASE IN
THE INTENSITY OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOUR ANALYSIS. TC 26S IS
CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP STR LOCATED TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MOTION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GERALDTON, AUSTRALIA WITHIN THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS
BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT AUSTRALIAN BIGHT. WHILE
STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE, TC 26S IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
INTERACTION WITH THE DRIER, COOLER AIRMASS ENTRENCHED TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
IMMINENTLY. AS IT MOVES OVER LAND THROUGH TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL
COMPLETE ETT NO LATER THAN TAU 24 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DEEP WESTERLIES AND DEVELOPS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM HAS
LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN PRIOR TO
LANDFALL DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS. ONCE
OVER LAND, THE INFLUENCE OF TERRAIN AND VERY HIGH SHEAR VALUES WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT UNDERGOES ETT. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210411071047
2021041106 26S SEROJA 028 01 145 23 SATL RADR 030
T000 261S 1120E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 110 SE QD 055 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 302S 1165E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 347S 1233E 040 R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 028
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 26.1S 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 30.2S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 34.7S 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 113.1E.
11APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK EYE FEATURE. A 110630Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT CORE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF THE CIRCULATION AND A WELL DEFINED 7NM WIDE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE EYE FEATURE WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM THE CARNARVON AIRPORT RADAR SITE. THE COMBINATION OF THE DATA CONFIRMING THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE RADAR, VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND APRF, AND KNES AT T5.0 (90 KTS). ADT WAS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AT T3.1, BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE MICROWAVE AND RADAR EYE PROVIDED STRONG SUPPORT FOR AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOUR ANALYSIS. TC 26S IS CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR LOCATED TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GERALDTON, AUSTRALIA WITHIN THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT AUSTRALIAN BIGHT. WHILE STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE, TC 26S IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF INTERACTION WITH THE DRIER, COOLER AIRMASS ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IMMINENTLY. AS IT MOVES OVER LAND THROUGH TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT NO LATER THAN TAU 24 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP WESTERLIES AND DEVELOPS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM HAS LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS. ONCE OVER LAND, THE INFLUENCE OF TERRAIN AND VERY HIGH SHEAR VALUES WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT UNDERGOES ETT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//
2621040112 93S1219E 25
2621040118 96S1218E 25
2621040200 100S1219E 20
2621040206 104S1222E 20
2621040212 110S1223E 25
2621040218 113S1227E 25
2621040300 113S1230E 25
2621040306 111S1232E 25
2621040312 107S1238E 30
2621040318 107S1240E 30
2621040400 105S1241E 30
2621040406 101S1239E 30
2621040412 104S1232E 35
2621040418 105S1229E 45
2621040500 108S1224E 45
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040618 125S1189E 45
2621040700 133S1180E 45
2621040706 142S1168E 45
2621040712 151S1156E 45
2621040718 158S1140E 45
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040818 184S1110E 45
2621040900 190S1101E 45
2621040906 196S1095E 55
2621040912 200S1089E 60
2621040912 200S1089E 60
2621040918 203S1085E 60
2621040918 203S1085E 60
2621041000 206S1082E 55
2621041000 206S1082E 55
2621041006 209S1082E 60
2621041006 209S1082E 60
2621041012 216S1088E 65
2621041012 216S1088E 65
2621041018 227S1096E 65
2621041018 227S1096E 65
2621041018 227S1096E 65
2621041100 242S1105E 65
2621041100 242S1105E 65
2621041100 242S1105E 65
2621041106 261S1120E 70
2621041106 261S1120E 70
2621041106 261S1120E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 110300
WARNING ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210411012242
2021041100 26S SEROJA 027 01 155 18 SATL 045
T000 242S 1105E 065 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 280S 1142E 060 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 324S 1200E 045
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 108.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 108.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.8S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.2S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 31.6S 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 109.2E.
10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304
NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2621040112 93S1219E 25
2621040118 96S1218E 25
2621040200 100S1219E 20
2621040206 104S1222E 20
2621040212 110S1223E 25
2621040218 113S1227E 25
2621040300 113S1230E 25
2621040306 111S1232E 25
2621040312 107S1238E 30
2621040318 107S1240E 30
2621040400 105S1241E 30
2621040406 101S1239E 30
2621040412 104S1232E 35
2621040418 105S1229E 45
2621040500 108S1224E 45
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040618 125S1189E 45
2621040700 133S1180E 45
2621040706 142S1168E 45
2621040712 151S1156E 45
2621040718 158S1140E 45
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040818 184S1110E 45
2621040900 190S1101E 45
2621040906 196S1095E 55
2621040912 200S1089E 60
2621040912 200S1089E 60
2621040918 203S1085E 60
2621040918 203S1085E 60
2621041000 206S1082E 55
2621041000 206S1082E 55
2621041006 209S1082E 60
2621041006 209S1082E 60
2621041012 215S1087E 60
2621041012 215S1087E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 24.2S 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 110.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 28.0S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 32.4S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 111.4E.
11APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
229 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND A WEAK, FORMATIVE EYE. A 102111Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
NORTH QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO T4.5
(77 KNOTS). TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW POLEWARD OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM HAS COMMENCED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND WILL
QUICKLY COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. TC 26S WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS (25-35 KNOTS) AND
TRACKS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z AND
112100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210410191439
2021041018 26S SEROJA 026 01 140 10 SATL 030
T000 224S 1095E 065 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 255S 1123E 070 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 295S 1168E 055
T036 337S 1231E 045
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 108.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 108.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.8S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.2S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 31.6S 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 109.2E.
10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304
NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2621040112 93S1219E 25
2621040118 96S1218E 25
2621040200 100S1219E 20
2621040206 104S1222E 20
2621040212 110S1223E 25
2621040218 113S1227E 25
2621040300 113S1230E 25
2621040306 111S1232E 25
2621040312 107S1238E 30
2621040318 107S1240E 30
2621040400 105S1241E 30
2621040406 101S1239E 30
2621040412 104S1232E 35
2621040418 105S1229E 45
2621040500 108S1224E 45
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040618 125S1189E 45
2621040700 133S1180E 45
2621040706 142S1168E 45
2621040712 151S1156E 45
2621040718 158S1140E 45
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040818 184S1110E 45
2621040900 190S1101E 45
2621040906 196S1095E 55
2621040912 200S1089E 60
2621040912 200S1089E 60
2621040918 203S1085E 60
2621040918 203S1085E 60
2621041000 206S1082E 55
2621041000 206S1082E 55
2621041006 209S1082E 60
2621041006 209S1082E 60
2621041012 215S1087E 60
2621041012 215S1087E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 22.4S 109.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 109.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.5S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 29.5S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 33.7S 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 110.2E.
10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255
NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATED CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 101705Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A
SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURRROUNDING A 35NM MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS IMAGE
ALONG WITH THE 37GHZ IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77
KNOTS). TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW POLEWARD OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 12 AND
WILL QUICKLY COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. TC 26S WILL WEAKEN
STEADILY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS (25-35 KNOTS) AND
TRACKS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 101800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z
AND 112100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 101500
WARNING ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210410132058
2021041012 26S SEROJA 025 02 140 08 SATL 050
T000 215S 1087E 060 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 238S 1107E 065 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 272S 1142E 060 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 316S 1197E 045
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 108.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 108.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.8S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.2S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 31.6S 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 109.2E.
10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304
NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2621040112 93S1219E 25
2621040118 96S1218E 25
2621040200 100S1219E 20
2621040206 104S1222E 20
2621040212 110S1223E 25
2621040218 113S1227E 25
2621040300 113S1230E 25
2621040306 111S1232E 25
2621040312 107S1238E 30
2621040318 107S1240E 30
2621040400 105S1241E 30
2621040406 101S1239E 30
2621040412 104S1232E 35
2621040418 105S1229E 45
2621040500 108S1224E 45
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040618 125S1189E 45
2621040700 133S1180E 45
2621040706 142S1168E 45
2621040712 151S1156E 45
2621040718 158S1140E 45
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040818 184S1110E 45
2621040900 190S1101E 45
2621040906 196S1095E 55
2621040912 200S1089E 60
2621040912 200S1089E 60
2621040918 203S1085E 60
2621040918 203S1085E 60
2621041000 206S1082E 55
2621041000 206S1082E 55
2621041006 209S1082E 60
2621041006 209S1082E 60
2621041012 215S1087E 60
2621041012 215S1087E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 108.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 108.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.8S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.2S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 31.6S 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 109.2E.
10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304
NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATES THAT TC 26S HAS
BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IN THE
FACE OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH THE RE-EMERGENCE OF SOME WELL
DEFINED CURVED BANDING, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
DESPITE THE OVERALL DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE, THE INITIAL POSITION
WAS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE IN A 101059Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW,
APRF AND KNES DUE TO A MUCH LOWER ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS). TC
26S LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE (15-20
KT) VWS, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28C) SSTS. TC 26S HAS
ROUNDED THE STR AXIS AND IS NOW ESTABLISHED ON A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SHORT PERIOD OF
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREAFTER, RAPIDLY
INCREASING SHEAR AND TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL COLLUDE TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN TC 26S. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AT OR JUST AFTER TAU 24 AS IT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOVES UNDER THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST
AUSTRALIA, IT IS EXPECTED TO FULLY TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA-
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z,
110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210410080012
2021041006 26S SEROJA 024 02 180 03 SATL 040
T000 209S 1082E 060 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 225S 1095E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 254S 1120E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 292S 1163E 055 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 095 NW QD
T048 336S 1222E 045 R034 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 20.9S 108.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 108.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.5S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.4S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 29.2S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 33.6S 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 108.5E.
10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
2621040112 93S1219E 25
2621040118 96S1218E 25
2621040200 100S1219E 20
2621040206 104S1222E 20
2621040212 110S1223E 25
2621040218 113S1227E 25
2621040300 113S1230E 25
2621040306 111S1232E 25
2621040312 107S1238E 30
2621040318 107S1240E 30
2621040400 105S1241E 30
2621040406 101S1239E 30
2621040412 104S1232E 35
2621040418 105S1229E 45
2621040500 108S1224E 45
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040618 125S1189E 45
2621040700 133S1180E 45
2621040706 142S1168E 45
2621040712 151S1156E 45
2621040718 158S1140E 45
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040818 184S1110E 45
2621040900 190S1101E 45
2621040906 196S1095E 55
2621040912 200S1089E 60
2621040912 200S1089E 60
2621040918 203S1085E 60
2621040918 203S1085E 60
2621041000 206S1082E 55
2621041000 206S1082E 55
2621041006 209S1082E 60
2621041006 209S1082E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 20.9S 108.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 108.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.5S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.4S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 29.2S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 33.6S 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 108.5E.
10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WRAPPING
INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN HINTS OF DEVELOPING A SMALL
INFRARED EYE, THOUGH IT HAS YET TO FORM FOR LONGER THAN AN HOUR. A
100720Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED A LARGE AND VERY
SYMMETRICAL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO AN
UPDATED INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60
KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW
AND APRF AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.1 (47 KTS). A 100530Z KNES FIX
OBTAINED A T4.5 (77 KTS) ESTIMATE BASED ON THE TRANSIENT EYE AT THAT
MOMENT IN TIME. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CONSISTING OF LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
(28C) SSTS. THE CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS REVEALS 20 KNOTS OF SHEAR,
HOWEVER BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH LITTLE
TILT EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY, ARGUES FOR A LOWER SHEAR
ESTIMATE. BASED ON THE UPDATED INITIAL POSITION, TC 26S APPEARS TO
HAVE STARTED THE LONG AWAITED TURN TO THE SOUTH, HAVING ROUNDED THE
RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOW BEGIN ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WHILE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. THEREAFTER RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS,
MOVEMENT OF LAND AND INTERACTION BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONSPIRE TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 26S. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION JUST AFTER LANDFALL, AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. FULL TRANSITION TO A STRONG, NEAR STORM-
FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 48 ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z,
110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 100300
WARNING ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210410013003
2021041000 26S SEROJA 023 02 235 08 SATL 030
T000 208S 1078E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 221S 1085E 065 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 245S 1104E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 276S 1138E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 070 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 319S 1194E 050
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 20.3S 108.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 108.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.1S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.1S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.8S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 29.4S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 36.7S 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 108.5E.
09APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2621040112 93S1219E 25
2621040118 96S1218E 25
2621040200 100S1219E 20
2621040206 104S1222E 20
2621040212 110S1223E 25
2621040218 113S1227E 25
2621040300 113S1230E 25
2621040306 111S1232E 25
2621040312 107S1238E 30
2621040318 107S1240E 30
2621040400 105S1241E 30
2621040406 101S1239E 30
2621040412 104S1232E 35
2621040418 105S1229E 45
2621040500 108S1224E 45
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040618 125S1189E 45
2621040700 133S1180E 45
2621040706 142S1168E 45
2621040712 151S1156E 45
2621040718 158S1140E 45
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040818 184S1110E 45
2621040900 190S1101E 45
2621040906 196S1095E 55
2621040912 200S1089E 60
2621040912 200S1089E 60
2621040918 203S1085E 60
2621040918 203S1085E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 107.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 107.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.1S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.5S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.6S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 31.9S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 108.0E.
10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
363 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 092124Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING A LARGE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
WESTERLIES AND WARM SST (28C) VALUES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF RANGING FROM T3.5-4.0 (55-65
KNOTS). TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE BY TAU 12 AND ACCELERATE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) COMMENCING AT TAU
24 WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 24, TC 26S WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA, TRACKING WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. TC 26S WILL WEAKEN BY
TAU 36 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. RAPID
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER TAU 36 AS VWS INCREASES TO 25-35
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 092100
WARNING ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210409194742
2021040918 26S SEROJA 022 02 230 05 SATL 020
T000 203S 1085E 060 R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 125 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 211S 1085E 065 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 231S 1097E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 258S 1122E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 070 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 294S 1165E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 367S 1302E 035 R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 20.3S 108.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 108.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.1S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.1S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.8S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 29.4S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 36.7S 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 108.5E.
09APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2621040112 93S1219E 25
2621040118 96S1218E 25
2621040200 100S1219E 20
2621040206 104S1222E 20
2621040212 110S1223E 25
2621040218 113S1227E 25
2621040300 113S1230E 25
2621040306 111S1232E 25
2621040312 107S1238E 30
2621040318 107S1240E 30
2621040400 105S1241E 30
2621040406 101S1239E 30
2621040412 104S1232E 35
2621040418 105S1229E 45
2621040500 108S1224E 45
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040618 125S1189E 45
2621040700 133S1180E 45
2621040706 142S1168E 45
2621040712 151S1156E 45
2621040718 158S1140E 45
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040818 184S1110E 45
2621040900 190S1101E 45
2621040906 196S1095E 55
2621040912 200S1089E 60
2621040912 200S1089E 60
2621040918 203S1085E 60
2621040918 203S1085E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 20.3S 108.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 108.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.1S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.1S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.8S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 29.4S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 36.7S 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 108.5E.
09APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
335 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091800Z GMI
89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
WESTERLIES AND WARM SST (29C) VALUES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF RANGING FROM T3.5-4.0 (55-65
KNOTS). ADDITIONALLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY A
091416Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KNOTS. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE
AFTER TAU 12 AND ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) COMMENCING AT TAU 36 WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 36, TC
26S WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA, TRACKING
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT
BETWEEN TAU 60 TO TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE JET
REGION AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. TC 26S WILL WEAKEN BY TAU
48 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. RAPID
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72 AS VWS INCREASES TO 60 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
27S (ODETTE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 091500
WARNING ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210409132900
2021040912 26S SEROJA 021 02 225 07 SATL 060
T000 202S 1089E 055 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 085 SE QD 090 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 208S 1084E 060 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 222S 1088E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 244S 1107E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 278S 1138E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 355S 1249E 035 R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 408S 1371E 030
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 20.2S 108.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 108.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.8S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.2S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.4S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.8S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 35.5S 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 40.8S 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 108.8E.
09APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2621040112 93S1219E 25
2621040118 96S1218E 25
2621040200 100S1219E 20
2621040206 104S1222E 20
2621040212 110S1223E 25
2621040218 113S1227E 25
2621040300 113S1230E 25
2621040306 111S1232E 25
2621040312 107S1238E 30
2621040318 107S1240E 30
2621040400 105S1241E 30
2621040406 101S1239E 30
2621040412 104S1232E 35
2621040418 105S1229E 45
2621040500 108S1224E 45
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040618 125S1189E 45
2621040700 133S1180E 45
2621040706 142S1168E 45
2621040712 151S1156E 45
2621040718 158S1140E 45
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040818 184S1110E 45
2621040900 190S1101E 45
2621040906 197S1094E 50
2621040912 202S1089E 55
2621040912 202S1089E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 20.2S 108.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 108.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.8S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.2S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.4S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.8S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 35.5S 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 40.8S 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
09APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY(EIR) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY WRAPPING
AROUND A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED UPON THE EIR LOOP AND MULTIPLE
DVORAK AGENCY FIX POSITIONS AND A MICROWAVE EYE OBSERVED ON THE
091113Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED WITH MULTIPLE DVORAK AGENCY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND APRF
WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5(55KTS). KNES IS MARKED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AT T4.0(65KTS), WHILE THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE(ADT) IS LOWER AT
T3.0(45KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
TC26S (SEROJA) AND TC 27S (ODETTE) ARE CONTINUING TO INTERACT AS
THEY ARE ONLY SEPARATED BY AN ESTIMATED 295NM. ODETTE REMAINS THE
SMALLER CYCLONE OF THE TWO AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO PREVENT SEROJA
FROM INTENSIFYING AS ODETTE HAS DECOUPLED AND BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED.
A PERIOD OF SWIFT INTENSIFICATION REMAINS POSSIBLE AS SEROJA
COMPLETES FORMATION OF AN INNER CORE AND ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS TO
THE WEST THROUGH TAU 36. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO
TAU 48 JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA AS VERTICAL SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS AND THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
JET STREAM, AS WELL AS POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT OF A MID-LATITUDE DRY
AIR MASS. THE FORECAST SHOWS THE PEAK INTENSITY BACKING OFF TO 80KTS
AT TAU 48. LANDFALL OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 48 WITH THE PEAK INTENSITY HAPPENING JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED, WITH A SLOWING OF
FORWARD MOTION EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TC
ODETTE, AND THEN ACCELERATION SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FLANK OF THE
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
LANDFALL NEAR GERALDTON, AUSTRALIA JUST AFTER TAU 48 HAS ABOVE-
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH TC SEROJA WILL BE
SLOWED DOWN BY INTERACTION WITH TC ODETTE PRIOR TO MAKING ITS
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. AFTER LANDFALL THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND RAPIDLY TRANSITION AS AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES OVER THE AUSTRALIAN BITE BY TAU 72 AND
COMPLETE TRANSITION PROCESS OVER THE MUCH COOLER WATER BEFORE TAU
96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 19.7S 109.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 109.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.6S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.4S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.2S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.0S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 33.5S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 40.0S 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 109.2E.
09APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
UPON THE MSI LOOP AND MULTIPLE DVORAK AGENCY FIX POSITIONS AND A
TIMELY 090556Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH INDICATES TWO PRIMARY
BANDS IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES WRAPPING ALMOST
COMPLETELY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY
OF 50 KNOTS IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTIPLE DVORAK AGENCY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND APRF WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0, THE
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) T2.9 (43KTS), A SATELLITE CONSENSUS
(SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 48KTS, AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN KNES T3.5
(55KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-
15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECENT RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM A POINT
SOURCE ALOFT. TC26S (SEROJA) AND TC 27S (ODETTE) ARE NOW INTERACTING
AS THEY ARE ONLY SEPARATED BY AN ESTIMATED 290NM. ODETTE REMAINS THE
SMALLER CYCLONE OF THE TWO AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO PREVENT SEROJA
FROM INTENSIFYING AS ODETTE IS NOW DECOUPLING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE PRESENCE OF TC 27S HAS CAUSED SOME SLIGHT DISRUPTION
AND PULLED SEROJA SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF ITS ORIGINAL TRACK.
HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF SWIFT INTENSIFICATION REMAINS EXPECTED BETWEEN
NOW AND 36 HOURS ONCE SEROJA COMPLETES FORMATION OF AN INNER
CORE AND ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST. A LEVELING OFF OF
INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR TO 20-25 KTS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
JET STREAM, AS WELL AS POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT OF A MID-LATITUDE DRY
AIR MASS. THE FORECAST SHOWS THE PEAK INTENSITY BACKING OFF AND
LOWERED TO 80 KTS AT 48 HOURS, THOUGH SINCE LANDFALL OCCURS BETWEEN
THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS, THE PEAK INTENSITY PRIOR TO
LANDFALL COULD BE A TAD HIGHER. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS UNCHANGED, WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION EXPECTED THROUGH
24 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TC ODETTE, AND THEN ACCELERATION
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FLANK OF THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO SEROJA'S SHORT TERM MOTION, AND
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST BEYOND 24 HOURS, FOLLOWING THE TREND IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE EXACT TIMING OF LANDFALL NEAR GERALDTON,
AUSTRALIA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS HAS ABOVE-AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH TC SEROJA WILL BE SLOWED DOWN BY
INTERACTION WITH TC ODETTE PRIOR TO MAKING ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVE
TOWARD THE COAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210409075519
2021040906 26S SEROJA 020 02 225 10 SATL 045
T000 197S 1094E 050 R034 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 095 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 206S 1085E 055 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 214S 1084E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 232S 1093E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 260S 1118E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 335S 1212E 040 R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 400S 1330E 030
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 19.7S 109.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 109.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.6S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.4S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.2S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.0S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 33.5S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 40.0S 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 109.2E.
09APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2621040112 93S1219E 25
2621040118 96S1218E 25
2621040200 100S1219E 20
2621040206 104S1222E 20
2621040212 110S1223E 25
2621040218 113S1227E 25
2621040300 113S1230E 25
2621040306 111S1232E 25
2621040312 107S1238E 30
2621040318 107S1240E 30
2621040400 105S1241E 30
2621040406 101S1239E 30
2621040412 104S1232E 35
2621040418 105S1229E 45
2621040500 108S1224E 45
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040618 125S1189E 45
2621040700 133S1180E 45
2621040706 142S1168E 45
2621040712 151S1156E 45
2621040718 158S1140E 45
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040818 184S1110E 45
2621040900 190S1101E 45
2621040906 197S1094E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 111.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 111.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.9S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.9S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.7S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.0S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.4S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 33.6S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 39.2S 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 111.1E.
08APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED
TO BE BATTERED BY EASTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED UPON A 081127Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM MULTIPLE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF, AND HEDGED ABOVE SATELLITE CONSENSUS
(SATCON) 44KTS AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T2.7
(41KTS). ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), SLIGHT RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND IMPROVING LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WOBBLE AND
PULL TO THE RIGHT AS A RESULT OF BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S THAT
WILL APPROACH TC 26S TO WITHIN 250NM. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36, A MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN
THE STR. IN RESPONSE, THE TC WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AND
TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
AUSTRALIAN BIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
POTENTIALLY FUEL A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100KTS BY TAU
48. AFTERWARD, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN VWS, COOLING SST, AND
LANDFALL INTO SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA JUST AFTER TAU 72. ONCE OVER LAND,
THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY ERODE DOWN TO 40KTS BY TAU 96 AND UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. JUST BEYOND TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BECOME A COLD-CORE NEAR GALE-FORCE LOW EXITING
INTO THE AUSTRALIAN BIGHT, BECOMING FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BEFORE TAU
120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH
ONLY A 90NM DISPARITY. THE EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S
INCREASES THE ALONG/CROSS TRACK ERROR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL
THE COMPLETION OF THE TURN ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z,
090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S
(TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210408200236
2021040818 26S SEROJA 018 02 210 10 SATL 020
T000 184S 1110E 045 R034 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 192S 1098E 050 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 199S 1090E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 206S 1088E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 223S 1095E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 280S 1146E 080 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 353S 1272E 040 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 419S 1393E 030
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 111.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 111.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.2S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.9S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.6S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.3S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 28.0S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 35.3S 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 41.9S 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 110.7E.
08APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292
NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2621040112 93S1219E 25
2621040118 96S1218E 25
2621040200 100S1219E 20
2621040206 104S1222E 20
2621040212 110S1223E 25
2621040218 113S1227E 25
2621040300 113S1230E 25
2621040306 111S1232E 25
2621040312 107S1238E 30
2621040318 107S1240E 30
2621040400 105S1241E 30
2621040406 101S1239E 30
2621040412 104S1232E 35
2621040418 105S1229E 45
2621040500 108S1224E 45
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040618 125S1189E 45
2621040700 133S1180E 45
2621040706 142S1168E 45
2621040712 151S1156E 45
2621040718 158S1140E 45
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040800 163S1125E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040806 171S1119E 55
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040812 175S1115E 50
2621040818 184S1110E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 111.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 111.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.9S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.9S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.7S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.0S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.4S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 33.6S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 39.2S 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 111.1E.
08APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED
TO BE BATTERED BY EASTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED UPON A 081127Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM MULTIPLE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF, AND HEDGED ABOVE SATELLITE CONSENSUS
(SATCON) 44KTS AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T2.7
(41KTS). ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), SLIGHT RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND IMPROVING LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WOBBLE AND
PULL TO THE RIGHT AS A RESULT OF BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S THAT
WILL APPROACH TC 26S TO WITHIN 250NM. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36, A MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN
THE STR. IN RESPONSE, THE TC WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AND
TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
AUSTRALIAN BIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
POTENTIALLY FUEL A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100KTS BY TAU
48. AFTERWARD, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN VWS, COOLING SST, AND
LANDFALL INTO SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA JUST AFTER TAU 72. ONCE OVER LAND,
THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY ERODE DOWN TO 40KTS BY TAU 96 AND UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. JUST BEYOND TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BECOME A COLD-CORE GALE-FORCE LOW EXITING
INTO THE AUSTRALIAN BIGHT, BECOMING FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BEFORE TAU
120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH
ONLY A 90NM DISPARITY. THE EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S
INCREASES THE ALONG/CROSS TRACK ERROR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL
THE COMPLETION OF THE TURN ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z,
090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S
(TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 071500
WARNING ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210407135458
2021040712 26S SEROJA 013 02 230 11 SATL 060
T000 149S 1159E 045 R034 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 160S 1142E 050 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 172S 1126E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 183S 1114E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 195S 1105E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 220S 1099E 110 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 264S 1130E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 329S 1226E 045 R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 115.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 115.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.0S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.2S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.3S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.5S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.0S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.4S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 32.9S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 115.5E.
07APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 456
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
2621040112 93S1219E 25
2621040118 96S1218E 25
2621040200 100S1219E 20
2621040206 104S1222E 20
2621040212 110S1223E 25
2621040218 113S1227E 25
2621040300 113S1230E 25
2621040306 111S1232E 25
2621040312 107S1238E 30
2621040318 107S1240E 30
2621040400 105S1241E 30
2621040406 101S1239E 30
2621040412 104S1232E 35
2621040418 105S1229E 45
2621040500 108S1224E 45
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040618 125S1189E 45
2621040700 133S1180E 45
2621040706 142S1168E 45
2621040712 149S1159E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210407081833
2021040706 26S SEROJA 012 02 230 15 SATL 060
T000 142S 1168E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 153S 1150E 050 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 166S 1132E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 177S 1119E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 190S 1108E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 208S 1095E 110 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 246S 1108E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 315S 1193E 045
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.2S 116.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 116.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.3S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.6S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.7S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.0S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.8S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.6S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 31.5S 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 116.3E.
07APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF FLARING, SHEARED CONVECTION. A 070525Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE AND A 070645Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LLCC TO GOOD EFFECT AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T2.5-T3.0 (35 TO 45 KTS), AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.0. THE SYSTEM REMAINS COCOONED IN A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, THOUGH THERE IS NO DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNEL AT PRESENT. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH 72, BEFORE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 72, AND THEN ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHARK BAY NEAR TAU 108. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY INTO A GENERALLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND DECREASED VWS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, FROM 60 KNOTS TO 110 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS, VWS DROPS TO THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE AND A COMPACT POINT SOURCE DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD, INCREASING SHEAR, COOLER WATERS AND ULTIMATELY LAND INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER LANDFALL AS IT MOVES EAST OF PERTH. AT THIS POINT, THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TRACK FORECAST, BUT THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A SLIGHT WOBBLE FURTHER WEST IN THE MID-RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE TWO SYSTEMS BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE RECURVE STARTING TO EMERGE. IN PARTICULAR, THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER TO THE WEST IN THE LATEST RUN AND IS NO THE WESTERN-MOST OUTLIER AMONGST THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS A NOD TOWARDS THE ECMWF, BUT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2621040112 93S1219E 25
2621040118 96S1218E 25
2621040200 100S1219E 20
2621040206 104S1222E 20
2621040212 110S1223E 25
2621040218 113S1227E 25
2621040300 113S1230E 25
2621040306 111S1232E 25
2621040312 107S1238E 30
2621040318 107S1240E 30
2621040400 105S1241E 30
2621040406 101S1239E 30
2621040412 104S1232E 35
2621040418 105S1229E 45
2621040500 108S1224E 45
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040618 125S1189E 45
2621040700 133S1180E 45
2621040706 142S1168E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.2S 116.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 116.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.3S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.6S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.7S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.0S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.8S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.6S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 31.5S 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 116.3E.
07APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF FLARING, SHEARED
CONVECTION. A 070525Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE AND A 070645Z GMI
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING
INTO A WELL DEFINED LLCC TO GOOD EFFECT AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T2.5-T3.0 (35 TO 45 KTS), AND AN ADT
ESTIMATE OF T3.0. THE SYSTEM REMAINS COCOONED IN A MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, THOUGH THERE IS NO
DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNEL AT PRESENT. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH 72,
BEFORE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 72, AND THEN ACCELERATING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHARK BAY NEAR TAU 108. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY INTO A
GENERALLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DECREASED VWS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, FROM 60
KNOTS TO 110 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE
AXIS, VWS DROPS TO THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE AND A COMPACT POINT SOURCE
DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD, INCREASING SHEAR, COOLER WATERS AND
ULTIMATELY LAND INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER LANDFALL AS IT MOVES EAST OF PERTH. AT
THIS POINT, THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE TRACK FORECAST, BUT THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A
SLIGHT WOBBLE FURTHER WEST IN THE MID-RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AS THE TWO SYSTEMS BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE RECURVE STARTING
TO EMERGE. IN PARTICULAR, THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST IN THE LATEST RUN AND IS NO THE WESTERN-MOST OUTLIER AMONGST
THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS A NOD TOWARDS THE ECMWF, BUT REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
REMAINS MODERATE IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND
080900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210406195124
2021040618 26S SEROJA 010 02 215 05 SATL 035
T000 123S 1190E 045 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 135S 1174E 045 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 145S 1157E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 159S 1142E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 173S 1127E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 196S 1106E 100 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 228S 1099E 105 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 279S 1148E 075 R064 065 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.5S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.5S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.9S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.3S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.6S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.8S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.9S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 118.6E.
06APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 662
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2621040112 93S1219E 25
2621040118 96S1218E 25
2621040200 100S1219E 20
2621040206 104S1222E 20
2621040212 110S1223E 25
2621040218 113S1227E 25
2621040300 113S1230E 25
2621040306 111S1232E 25
2621040312 107S1238E 30
2621040318 107S1240E 30
2621040400 105S1241E 30
2621040406 101S1239E 30
2621040412 104S1232E 35
2621040418 105S1229E 45
2621040500 108S1224E 45
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040600 114S1200E 55
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040606 116S1197E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040612 119S1193E 50
2621040618 123S1190E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.5S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.5S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.9S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.3S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.6S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.8S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.9S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 118.6E.
06APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 662
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION. A 061712Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC
WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.0
(45 KNOTS), HEDGED ABOVE A 06/1830Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.6 (37 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 72
THEN TURN POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 120 AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHES AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 210NM AT TAU 72 LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE VWS BUT IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 48 AS VWS RELAXES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IMPROVES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PEAK AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 96 WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING ANTICIPATED BY TAU 120 DUE TO INCREASING VWS, COOLER SST
(27-28C) AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND
072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210406081852
2021040606 26S SEROJA 008 02 255 09 SATL 060
T000 115S 1189E 050 R050 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 065 SE QD 085 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 120S 1178E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 128S 1163E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 140S 1148E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 154S 1132E 065 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 185S 1107E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 210S 1094E 105 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 246S 1103E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 11.5S 118.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 118.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.0S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.8S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.0S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.4S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.5S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.0S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.6S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 118.6E.
06APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PULSING CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC. DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH ONLY MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF PGTW, APRF AND KNES FIX POSITIONS
AND ANALYSIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF, AN
ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.2 AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KTS. AN EARLIER
ASCAT-B AT 060110Z INDICATED A SWATH OF 50-55 KNOT WINDS PRESENT IN
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS AND PROVIDED ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS)
EASTERLY VWS AND WEAKLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW OFFSET BY VERY WARM
(30-31C) SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR THROUGH TAU 72. TC 27S WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY ABOUT
TAU 48, SWINGING RAPIDLY AROUND THE NORTH THEN NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF TC 26S, IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL TRACK FORECAST OF TC 26S AS TC 27S WILL BE THE WEAKER OF THE
TWO SYSTEMS AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH DISTANT TO HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TC 26S WILL TURN SOUTH THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96 IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. A PERIOD OF MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96, PEAKING AT 105 KTS AT TAU 96, AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO AN AREA OF DECREASED SHEAR AND TAPS INTO A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS AND EXPERIENCES INCREASING SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 92NM SPREAD AT TAU 48
INCREASING TO 150NM AT TAU 120. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE IMPACT OF THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S.
2621040112 93S1219E 25
2621040118 96S1218E 25
2621040200 100S1219E 20
2621040206 104S1222E 20
2621040212 110S1223E 25
2621040218 113S1227E 25
2621040300 113S1230E 25
2621040306 111S1232E 25
2621040312 107S1238E 30
2621040318 107S1240E 30
2621040400 105S1241E 30
2621040406 101S1239E 30
2621040412 104S1232E 35
2621040418 105S1229E 45
2621040500 108S1224E 45
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040506 110S1219E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040512 111S1214E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040518 113S1206E 50
2621040600 113S1198E 55
2621040600 113S1198E 55
2621040606 115S1189E 50
2621040606 115S1189E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 11.5S 118.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 118.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.0S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.8S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.0S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.4S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.5S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.0S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.6S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 118.6E.
06APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PULSING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC. DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF PGTW, APRF AND KNES FIX POSITIONS AND ANALYSIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.2 AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KTS. AN EARLIER ASCAT-B AT 060110Z INDICATED A SWATH OF 50-55 KNOT WINDS PRESENT IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS AND PROVIDED ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) EASTERLY VWS AND WEAKLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW OFFSET BY VERY WARM (30-31C) SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. TC 27S WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY ABOUT TAU 48, SWINGING RAPIDLY AROUND THE NORTH THEN NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 26S, IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST OF TC 26S AS TC 27S WILL BE THE WEAKER OF THE TWO SYSTEMS AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH DISTANT TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TC 26S WILL TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96 IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. A PERIOD OF MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96, PEAKING AT 105 KTS AT TAU 96, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO AN AREA OF DECREASED SHEAR AND TAPS INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND EXPERIENCES INCREASING SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 92NM SPREAD AT TAU 48 INCREASING TO 150NM AT TAU 120. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE IMPACT OF THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 050900
WARNING ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210405075032
2021040506 26S SEROJA 003 02 235 09 SATL 050
T000 111S 1219E 050 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 117S 1205E 055 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 125S 1190E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 136S 1174E 065 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 148S 1160E 075 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 176S 1126E 090 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 199S 1114E 105 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 230S 1116E 095 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 121.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 121.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 11.7S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 12.5S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 13.6S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.8S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.6S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.9S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.0S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 121.5E.
05APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408
NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 050600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z
AND 060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS
2621040112 93S1219E 25
2621040118 96S1218E 25
2621040200 100S1219E 20
2621040206 104S1222E 20
2621040212 110S1223E 25
2621040218 113S1227E 25
2621040300 113S1230E 25
2621040306 111S1232E 25
2621040312 107S1238E 30
2621040318 107S1240E 30
2621040400 105S1241E 30
2621040406 101S1239E 30
2621040412 104S1232E 35
2621040418 105S1229E 45
2621040500 106S1226E 45
2621040506 111S1219E 50
2621040506 111S1219E 50
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>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 121.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 121.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 11.7S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 12.5S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 13.6S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.8S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.6S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.9S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.0S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 121.5E.
05APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408
NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A REGION
OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD TRACING IN THE MSI
LOOP INTO AN EXPOSED PORTION OF A LARGE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTIPLE
DVORAK AGENCY INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES
AND IN BETWEEN APRF T3.5/55KTS, THE ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF
T3.2/49KTS, AND THE SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) OF 53KTS. TC 26S IS
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST).
THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS IN AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES SLIGHTLY WEST OVER THE FLORES SEA ENHANCING
THE TRAJECTORY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DRIVE TC 26S
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 95KTS BY TAU 120 AS THE CYCLONE
TRACKS MORE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE STEERING STR WEAKENING AND
RECEDING EASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT UP
TO TAU 72. AFTERWARD, NOTABLE ALONG TRACK AND CROSS TRACK ERRORS
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE BETWEEN ALL MODELS, MOST LIKELY DUE TO
EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S, CURRENTLY IN THE INDIAN
OCEAN SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. THAT IS PROJECTED TO APPROACH TC
26S TOWARD THE LATTER TAUS BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF
600NM. THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND IS LAID
OVER BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 72.
AFTERWARD, THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID JUST LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET THE RIGHT MARGIN OUTLIERS OF THE NVGM AND ECMF, AND EEMN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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