Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 119 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (06 Apr 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 119 km/h 0.4 m 220 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 133 km/h 2.5 m 625 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 06 Apr 2021 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 148 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:

Rainfall

625 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Apr 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmIndonesia223,653 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 274 280 thousand
- - - - Timor-Leste, Indonesia
Blue 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 160 50 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 155 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 127 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 233 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 204 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 512 -
- - - - - Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Broome, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Apr 2021 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Apr 2021 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Apr 2021 18:00 Broome Australia  0.4
06 Apr 2021 18:00 Thangoo Australia  0.4
06 Apr 2021 22:15 Dampier Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 22:15 Karratha Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 22:15 Pender Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 21:45 Wickham Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 21:30 Point Samson Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 21:30 Cossack Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 18:15 Kollan I Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 21:30 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 20:45 Derby Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 23:30 Waterbank Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 21:45 Mardie Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 23:45 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 22:00 Port Hedland Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 22:00 Wedgefield Australia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 00:00 Kandangan Indonesia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 00:00 Gresik Indonesia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 00:00 Pangkalan Indonesia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 00:00 Batoe Porong Indonesia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 00:00 Kebanjar Indonesia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 00:00 Baliga Indonesia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 00:00 Laboean Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 22:45 Sidoardjo Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 18:15 Pardoo Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 22:45 Ah Chong I Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 18:30 Condon Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 22:30 Onslow Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 22:30 Pasuruan Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 23:00 Sumberkuning Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 22:30 Sampang Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 00:00 Taju Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 00:00 Bulumanis Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 00:00 Batangan Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 00:00 Rembang Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 22:15 Bayeman Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:45 Maoe Ndai Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:45 Manoeran Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:45 Pigadjawa Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:45 Nangaboa Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:45 Waroe Kasoe Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:45 Wassa Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:15 Aplame Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:15 Woereh Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:15 Lewohajong Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:15 Koekoewerang Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:15 Throng Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:15 Adoenara Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:15 Lamakera Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:15 Papelawe Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:15 Sagu Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:15 Wotanglolong Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:15 Lewokeling Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:15 Witihama Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:15 Boleng Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 18:15 Nereng Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:00 Losan Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:00 Bulakamba Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:00 Klampok Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:15 Oeboeah Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:15 Hansisi Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:15 Naioni Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:15 Tenau Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:15 Manoelairoti Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:15 Namosain Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:15 Kupang Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:15 Soelamoe Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:15 Maoelafa Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:15 Pitai Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:15 Manikin Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:15 Pariti Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:15 Naimoeti Indonesia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 00:00 Lasem Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 22:45 Probolinggo Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 22:00 Gending Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 22:00 Kraksaan Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 22:30 Karagajar Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:15 Cilancang Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 19:15 Cirebon Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 23:45 Sidaju Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 22:15 Galis Indonesia  0.1