Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Indonesia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 119 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (05 Apr 12:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 119 km/h 0.4 m 203 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 133 km/h 2.5 m 625 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndonesia169,605 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 148 -
- - - - - Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:

Rainfall

625 mm

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndonesia15,469 
50-100 mmIndonesia18,147,949 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 274 280 thousand
- - - - Timor-Leste, Indonesia
Blue 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 160 50 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 155 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 127 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 680 20 thousand
- - - - Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Derby, Australia. This height is estimated for 05 Apr 2021 12:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
05 Apr 2021 12:30 Derby Australia  0.4
05 Apr 2021 15:45 Kollan I Australia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 16:15 Pender Australia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 12:30 East Lewis I Australia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 12:30 Dampier Australia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 16:00 Broome Australia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 15:45 Thangoo Australia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 14:45 Menango Indonesia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 14:45 Tandjungkarang Indonesia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 14:45 Telukbetung Indonesia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 14:45 Tarahan Indonesia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Wickham Australia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Point Samson Australia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Cossack Australia  0.3
05 Apr 2021 13:45 Kandangan Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 13:45 Gresik Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 13:45 Pangkalan Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 13:45 Batoe Porong Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 13:45 Kebanjar Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 15:15 Pardoo Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Onslow Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 12:30 Karratha Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 14:45 Kiluan Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 14:45 Kekatang Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 14:45 Safety Bay Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 14:45 Rockingham Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 14:45 Fremantle Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 14:45 Warnbro Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 14:45 North Fremantle Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 14:45 East Fremantle Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 14:45 Coogee Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 14:45 Spearwood Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 14:45 Wattleup Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 13:45 Mardie Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 13:15 Baliga Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 13:15 Laboean Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Pasuruan Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Sidoardjo Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 12:45 Domas Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 12:45 Tanara Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 12:45 Ketapang Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 13:00 Kramat Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 13:00 Cengkarengbelakang Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 13:00 Tipar Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Sumberkuning Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Maringgai Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 13:30 Waterbank Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Merapo Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 13:15 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Aplame Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Woereh Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Lewohajong Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Koekoewerang Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Throng Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Adoenara Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Lamakera Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Papelawe Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Sagu Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Wotanglolong Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Lewokeling Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Witihama Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Boleng Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Nereng Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Boedae Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Sampang Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 16:00 Condon Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Sidaju Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 14:30 Peelhurst Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 14:30 Singleton Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 14:30 Karnup Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Merak Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Tanahkadukung Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Baing Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 14:30 Falcon Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 14:30 Mandurah Australia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Manoekangga Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Ege Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Galis Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Padangan-wetan Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Kalipang Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Lemanbang Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Tambakbaja Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Ngalu Indonesia  0.2
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Bayeman Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Probolinggo Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:15 Sapulu Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:15 Tlagabiru Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:15 Banjoeates Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Kraksaan Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Kotahawoe Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 13:00 Vasse Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 13:00 Broadwater Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 13:00 Busselton Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 13:00 Wonnerup Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 13:00 Ludlow Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:15 Aermata Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:15 Klampis Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:30 Tapil Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Prenduan Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:15 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Gending Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Karagajar Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Djate Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Bluto Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Saroka Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Sumenep Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Bundan Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:45 Kota Boddo Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:45 Wawarei Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:45 Seba Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:45 Balubuk Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Gedugan Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 14:15 Tjikawung Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 14:15 Sumur Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 14:15 Aerdjeruk Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 14:15 Babakancibeber Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:15 Kelapang Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:15 Sokabana Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 14:00 Mosman Park Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 14:00 Cottesloe Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 14:00 Peppermint Grove Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 14:00 Swanbourne Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 14:00 Claremont Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 14:00 Bicton Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Lapatawang Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Kirihei Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Kampoeng Melolo Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Melolo Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Jawang Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Lewoleba Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Lamanuna Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Besuki Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Oetefoe-besar Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Besdale Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Silain Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Oetefoe-ketjil Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Butuinan Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Hala Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Oeboeah Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Hansisi Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Naioni Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Tenau Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Manoelairoti Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Namosain Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Kupang Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Soelamoe Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Maoelafa Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Pitai Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Mandingan Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Djangdjangan Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Lalindi Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:45 Manikin Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:45 Pariti Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:45 Naimoeti Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:45 Ambunten-timu Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:45 Belukares Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:15 Semanding Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:15 Podang Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:15 Brondong Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 13:30 Pedes Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 13:30 Sungaibuntu Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:00 Lakohembi Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Situbondo Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:15 Port Hedland Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:15 Wedgefield Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:45 Below Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:45 Adipala Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:45 Binangoen Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Baah Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Plosokere Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Djenu Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Tuban Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Remen Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 13:00 Maoe Ndai Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 13:00 Manoeran Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 13:00 Pigadjawa Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 13:00 Nangaboa Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 13:00 Waroe Kasoe Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 13:00 Wassa Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:15 Batuputihkenek Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:30 Sangkapura Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:45 Tambak Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:45 Ajah Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 16:45 Chilachap Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 14:30 Umbulan Pepanggar Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 14:30 Kalianda Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Kesambirampak Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:00 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Oenggae Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Nordale Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Korlo Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Suaha Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Keoen Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Daeoerendale Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Akle Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Eahun Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Pepela Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Roti Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Batuidu Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Usulain Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Oisina Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:15 Tablolong Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 17:30 Lamararap Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 14:15 North Beach Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 14:15 Scarborough Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 14:15 Mullalloo Beach Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Waingapu Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Matawai Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Pajeti Indonesia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 12:30 Learmonth Australia  0.1
05 Apr 2021 18:00 Lasem Indonesia  0.1