Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.4 m (11 Apr 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 115 km/h 2.4 m 154 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 133 km/h 2.5 m 625 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

133 km/h

Up to 100 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Apr 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia101,832 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Apr 2021 06:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 08 Apr 2021 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 08 Apr 2021 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 09 Apr 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 09 Apr 2021 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 09 Apr 2021 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 09 Apr 2021 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 10 Apr 2021 00:00 122 -
- - - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Apr 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Australia11,673,131
+
Indonesia11,575,042 
Australia98,089 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 274 280 thousand
- - - - Timor-Leste, Indonesia
Blue 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 160 50 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 155 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 127 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 233 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 204 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 220 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 255 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 296 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 318 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Apr 2021 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 08 Apr 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 08 Apr 2021 18:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 09 Apr 2021 00:00 185 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 09 Apr 2021 06:00 131 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 09 Apr 2021 12:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 09 Apr 2021 18:00 74 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 10 Apr 2021 00:00 231 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.4m in Useless Loop, Australia. This height is estimated for 11 Apr 2021 10:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Apr 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Apr 2021 10:00 Useless Loop Australia  2.4
11 Apr 2021 12:15 Tamala Australia  2.2
11 Apr 2021 10:15 Dirk Hartog Australia  2.1
11 Apr 2021 15:15 Hamelin Pool Australia  1.8
11 Apr 2021 15:15 Hamelin Australia  1.8
11 Apr 2021 13:15 Nanga Australia  1.8
11 Apr 2021 13:00 Carrarang Australia  1.7
11 Apr 2021 10:30 Denham Australia  1.6
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Gladstone Australia  1.6
11 Apr 2021 14:30 Shark Bay Australia  1.3
11 Apr 2021 14:30 Monkey Mia Australia  1.3
11 Apr 2021 13:15 Kalbarri Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 14:15 Gregory Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 14:15 Lynton Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Horrocks Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 14:45 Drummond Cove Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 14:45 Popes Landing Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Geraldton Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Waggrakine Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 16:30 Denison Australia  0.6
11 Apr 2021 16:30 Port Denison Australia  0.6
11 Apr 2021 16:30 Dongara Australia  0.6
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Greenough Australia  0.6
11 Apr 2021 09:00 Carnarvon Australia  0.6
10 Apr 2021 07:45 Learmonth Australia  0.6
11 Apr 2021 16:45 Illawong Australia  0.5
11 Apr 2021 17:00 Coolimba Australia  0.5
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Leeman Australia  0.4
10 Apr 2021 08:00 Exmouth Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Green Head Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 07:45 Quobba Australia  0.3
10 Apr 2021 06:15 Mardie Australia  0.3
10 Apr 2021 07:45 Onslow Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 07:45 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 17:30 Jurien Australia  0.3
10 Apr 2021 07:30 Glenroy Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 17:30 Cervantes Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Broadwater Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Busselton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Wonnerup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Ludlow Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Dalyellup Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 19:00 Eucla Motel Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Vasse Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Bunbury Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Picton Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 22:45 Eyre Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Binningup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Myalup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Eaton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Burragenup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Australind Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 06:15 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Gunyulgup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Yallingup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Dunsborough Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Quindalup Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 16:00 Maringgai Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:30 Domas Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:30 Tanara Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:30 Ketapang Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:15 Kramat Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 03:30 Warroora Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 22:15 Thundulda Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:15 Cengkarengbelakang Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 21:30 Broome Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:00 Merak Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:00 Tipar Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Lancelin Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:00 Balubuk Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Seabird Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Guilderton Australia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 04:30 Ah Chong I Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 21:45 Cilancang Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 21:45 Cirebon Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 21:30 Losan Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 21:30 Bulakamba Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 21:30 Karangampel Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 21:30 Thangoo Australia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 11:30 Derby Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 21:30 Klampok Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 05:45 Doombup Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:15 Ketapang Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Falcon Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Safety Bay Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Mandurah Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Warnbro Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Peelhurst Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Singleton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Karnup Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 20:30 Kendal Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 20:30 Mangkang-Kulan Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 20:30 Djomblang Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 20:30 Semarang Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 20:30 Karangroto Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Fremantle Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 North Fremantle Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Mosman Park Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Cottesloe Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 East Fremantle Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Coogee Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Peppermint Grove Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Swanbourne Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Claremont Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Spearwood Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Bicton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Wattleup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 North Beach Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Scarborough Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 21:15 Tegal Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 21:15 Wanasari Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Rockingham Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 21:30 Pemalang Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 21:30 Petaroekan Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 21:30 Sigedang Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Two Rocks Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Yanchep Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Quinns Rock Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 21:30 Pekalongan Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 06:00 Esperance Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:30 Pedes Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:30 Sungaibuntu Indonesia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 06:30 Cardabia Australia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 20:00 Gracetown Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:45 Kandangan Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:45 Gresik Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:45 Pangkalan Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:45 Batoe Porong Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:45 Kebanjar Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 06:30 East Lewis I Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 20:00 Wedung Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 20:00 Kedungmalang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 21:15 Sidja Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Mullalloo Beach Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 20:30 Bugel Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 20:15 Jepara Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 20:15 Karanggondang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 05:45 Dampier Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:45 Bakau Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:45 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:45 Muaratjilamaja Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:45 Baliga Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:45 Laboean Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 07:15 Wickham Australia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 07:15 Point Samson Australia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 07:15 Cossack Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 19:45 Karangsari Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 04:30 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 20:30 Indramaju Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 04:00 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 16:30 Sidaju Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 19:30 Menango Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 19:30 Tandjungkarang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 19:30 Telukbetung Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 19:30 Tarahan Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 19:45 Taju Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 17:00 Port Hedland Australia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 17:00 Wedgefield Australia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 06:00 Karratha Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 13:30 Sidoardjo Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:00 Sumberkuning Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:45 Anjer-Kidu Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 19:15 Kekatang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:30 Patrol Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:30 Kandanghaur Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:15 Sampang Indonesia  0.1