Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population 2 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 104 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.8 m (11 Apr 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 104 km/h 2.8 m 97 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 133 km/h 2.5 m 625 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

133 km/h

Up to 50 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Australia1954 
Tropical StormAustralia54786 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Apr 2021 06:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 08 Apr 2021 12:00 155 2 thousand
- - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Australia5387855
+
Indonesia5384794 
Australia3061 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 274 280 thousand
- - - - Timor-Leste, Indonesia
Blue 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 160 50 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 155 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 127 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 233 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 204 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 220 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 255 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 296 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 318 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Apr 2021 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 08 Apr 2021 12:00 501 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.8m in Useless Loop, Australia. This height is estimated for 11 Apr 2021 08:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Apr 2021 08:00 Useless Loop Australia  2.8
11 Apr 2021 08:15 Dirk Hartog Australia  2.5
11 Apr 2021 10:30 Tamala Australia  2.5
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Hamelin Pool Australia  2.1
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Hamelin Australia  2.1
11 Apr 2021 11:00 Nanga Australia  2.0
11 Apr 2021 08:30 Denham Australia  2.0
11 Apr 2021 11:45 Carrarang Australia  2.0
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Gladstone Australia  1.8
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Shark Bay Australia  1.5
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Monkey Mia Australia  1.5
11 Apr 2021 11:15 Kalbarri Australia  1.1
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Gregory Australia  1.0
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Lynton Australia  1.0
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Horrocks Australia  0.9
11 Apr 2021 07:45 Carnarvon Australia  0.8
10 Apr 2021 10:00 Learmonth Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Drummond Cove Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Popes Landing Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Waggrakine Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Geraldton Australia  0.7
10 Apr 2021 09:30 Exmouth Australia  0.5
11 Apr 2021 06:45 Quobba Australia  0.5
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Greenough Australia  0.5
11 Apr 2021 06:45 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 17:00 Wickham Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 17:00 Point Samson Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 17:00 Cossack Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 17:30 Mardie Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 17:00 East Lewis I Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 17:00 Dampier Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 16:30 Karratha Australia  0.4
10 Apr 2021 07:45 Onslow Australia  0.4
10 Apr 2021 08:00 Glenroy Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 20:45 Broome Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 17:30 Ah Chong I Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 20:45 Thangoo Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 16:30 Port Hedland Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 16:30 Wedgefield Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 03:00 Gnaraloo Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 02:30 Warroora Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 13:30 Derby Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 09:45 Denison Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 09:45 Port Denison Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 09:45 Dongara Australia  0.2
08 Apr 2021 21:30 Condon Australia  0.2
08 Apr 2021 21:30 Pardoo Australia  0.2
08 Apr 2021 19:45 Waterbank Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 09:45 Illawong Australia  0.2
08 Apr 2021 19:30 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Kandangan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Gresik Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Pangkalan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Batoe Porong Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Kebanjar Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 10:00 Coolimba Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 00:15 Cardabia Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:00 Baliga Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:00 Laboean Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 09:45 Leeman Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:45 Sumberkuning Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Pasuruan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Bayeman Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Sidoardjo Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Sampang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Probolinggo Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Gending Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Kraksaan Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:45 Kramat Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:45 Cengkarengbelakang Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:45 Tipar Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 09:45 Green Head Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Karagajar Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Jurien Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Galis Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 16:30 Maringgai Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:00 Prenduan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 15:45 Domas Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 15:45 Tanara Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 15:45 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 06:30 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 00:00 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Besuki Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Djate Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Bluto Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Saroka Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Sumenep Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Bundan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Gedugan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:00 Losan Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Cervantes Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Mandingan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 17:15 Pender Australia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:30 Balubuk Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 15:30 Merak Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:00 Karangampel Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:00 Cilancang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:00 Cirebon Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Situbondo Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 23:45 Bulakamba Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Djangdjangan Indonesia  0.1