Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 119 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.6 m (11 Apr 08:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 119 km/h 2.6 m 95 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 133 km/h 2.5 m 625 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

133 km/h

Up to Few people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Apr 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Australia13 
Tropical StormAustralia92612 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Apr 2021 06:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 08 Apr 2021 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 08 Apr 2021 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 09 Apr 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 09 Apr 2021 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 09 Apr 2021 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 09 Apr 2021 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 10 Apr 2021 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 10 Apr 2021 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 25 10 Apr 2021 12:00 115 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 26 10 Apr 2021 18:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 11 Apr 2021 00:00 126 Few people
- - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Apr 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Australia1844607
+
Indonesia1796597 
Australia48010 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 274 280 thousand
- - - - Timor-Leste, Indonesia
Blue 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 160 50 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 155 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 127 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 233 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 204 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 220 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 255 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 296 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 318 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Apr 2021 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 08 Apr 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 08 Apr 2021 18:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 09 Apr 2021 00:00 185 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 09 Apr 2021 06:00 131 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 09 Apr 2021 12:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 09 Apr 2021 18:00 74 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 10 Apr 2021 00:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 10 Apr 2021 06:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 10 Apr 2021 12:00 75 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 10 Apr 2021 18:00 70 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 11 Apr 2021 00:00 98 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.6m in Useless Loop, Australia. This height is estimated for 11 Apr 2021 08:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Apr 2021 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Apr 2021 08:45 Useless Loop Australia  2.6
11 Apr 2021 10:30 Tamala Australia  2.3
11 Apr 2021 09:00 Dirk Hartog Australia  2.2
11 Apr 2021 11:30 Nanga Australia  1.9
11 Apr 2021 11:45 Carrarang Australia  1.8
11 Apr 2021 10:30 Hamelin Pool Australia  1.8
11 Apr 2021 10:30 Hamelin Australia  1.8
11 Apr 2021 09:15 Denham Australia  1.8
11 Apr 2021 13:30 Gladstone Australia  1.6
11 Apr 2021 13:15 Shark Bay Australia  1.4
11 Apr 2021 13:15 Monkey Mia Australia  1.4
11 Apr 2021 11:45 Kalbarri Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 08:45 Carnarvon Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 12:30 Gregory Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 12:30 Lynton Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 12:30 Horrocks Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 13:30 Geraldton Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 13:30 Drummond Cove Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 13:30 Popes Landing Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 13:30 Waggrakine Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 13:45 Greenough Australia  0.6
11 Apr 2021 14:15 Denison Australia  0.6
11 Apr 2021 14:15 Port Denison Australia  0.6
11 Apr 2021 14:15 Dongara Australia  0.6
11 Apr 2021 07:45 Quobba Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 14:30 Illawong Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 15:15 Coolimba Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 07:45 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Leeman Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 05:45 Learmonth Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 15:30 Green Head Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Dalyellup Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Bunbury Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Binningup Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Myalup Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Picton Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Eaton Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Burragenup Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Australind Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 07:00 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Vasse Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Broadwater Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Busselton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Wonnerup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Ludlow Australia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 03:15 Maringgai Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 20:30 Jurien Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:30 Cengkarengbelakang Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:30 Tipar Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:00 Tanara Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:00 Ketapang Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:00 Kramat Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:30 Domas Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 02:45 Warroora Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:00 Balubuk Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Falcon Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Safety Bay Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Mandurah Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Warnbro Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Peelhurst Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Singleton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Karnup Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:00 Merak Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Gunyulgup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Yallingup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Dunsborough Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Quindalup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 20:30 Cervantes Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:00 Rockingham Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:00 Wattleup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 05:00 Exmouth Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:30 Kandangan Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:30 Gresik Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:30 Pangkalan Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:30 Batoe Porong Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:30 Kebanjar Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Fremantle Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 North Fremantle Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Mosman Park Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Cottesloe Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 East Fremantle Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Coogee Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Peppermint Grove Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Swanbourne Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Claremont Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Spearwood Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Bicton Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:30 Pedes Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:00 Ketapang Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 16:00 Eucla Motel Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 14:15 Sungaibuntu Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 21:45 Losan Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 21:30 Cilancang Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 21:30 Cirebon Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 21:30 Bulakamba Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 21:30 Karangampel Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 22:00 Klampok Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:30 North Beach Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:30 Scarborough Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 02:45 Cardabia Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:30 Two Rocks Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:30 Yanchep Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:30 Quinns Rock Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:30 Mullalloo Beach Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Guilderton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Lancelin Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:00 Baliga Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:00 Laboean Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 03:45 Glenroy Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 12:30 Derby Australia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 20:45 Kendal Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 20:45 Mangkang-Kulan Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 20:45 Djomblang Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 20:45 Semarang Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 20:45 Karangroto Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Seabird Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 03:30 Onslow Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 14:45 Bakau Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 22:00 Tegal Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 21:30 Pemalang Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 21:30 Petaroekan Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 21:30 Sigedang Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 22:00 Wanasari Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 21:30 Pekalongan Indonesia  0.2
13 Apr 2021 21:00 Sidja Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:15 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 15:15 Muaratjilamaja Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Gracetown Australia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 20:30 Wedung Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 20:30 Kedungmalang Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 20:15 Bugel Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 20:15 Jepara Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:15 Pasuruan Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:15 Bayeman Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 22:30 Indramaju Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 17:00 Sidaju Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 08:15 Broome Australia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 20:15 Karanggondang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 13:45 Sidoardjo Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 15:30 Sumberkuning Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 19:15 Menango Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 19:15 Tandjungkarang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 19:15 Telukbetung Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 19:15 Tarahan Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 07:45 Thangoo Australia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Ambunten-timu Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Belukares Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Sumenep Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 15:00 Tlagabiru Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 15:00 Banjoeates Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 15:00 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 15:00 Kelapang Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 15:00 Sokabana Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:45 Sampang Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 15:30 Aermata Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 15:30 Klampis Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 15:30 Sapulu Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Probolinggo Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Gending Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Kraksaan Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 14:45 Anjer-Kidu Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 06:45 Eyre Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 19:15 Kekatang Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:45 Galis Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:45 Prenduan Indonesia  0.1
14 Apr 2021 00:00 Patrol Indonesia  0.1
14 Apr 2021 00:00 Kandanghaur Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Karagajar Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 19:15 Kiluan Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 01:15 Mardie Australia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 15:00 Batuputihkenek Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 15:00 Lombang Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 15:30 Tambak Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 15:30 Sangkapura Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 19:00 Taju Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 19:00 Bulumanis Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 19:00 Batangan Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 19:00 Rembang Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Djate Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Bluto Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Saroka Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Bundan Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Gedugan Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Djangdjangan Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Puteran Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Banraas Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Sokaramme Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 23:15 Cangkring Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 19:30 Karangsari Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 15:00 Besuki Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 18:15 Lasem Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:45 Mandingan Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 16:45 Remen Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 16:45 Plosokere Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 16:45 Djenu Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 16:45 Tuban Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 16:45 Semanding Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 16:45 Podang Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 00:45 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 17:30 Padangan-wetan Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 17:30 Kalipang Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 17:30 Lemanbang Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 17:30 Tambakbaja Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Sonok Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 21:15 Esperance Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 21:15 Doombup Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 05:30 Brondong Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 09:00 Tampoena Wo Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 09:00 Wasalangka Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Situbondo Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 11:30 Lautem Timor-Leste  0.1
14 Apr 2021 00:00 Umbulan Pepanggar Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:45 Kalianda Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Grajam Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Gajam Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:30 Katupat Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 14:15 Kesambirampak Indonesia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 19:00 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.1
13 Apr 2021 19:00 Waterbank Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 08:00 Blimbing Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 08:00 Dadapan Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 08:00 Banyuwangi Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 08:00 Banjuwangi Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 08:00 Soega Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 08:00 Gilimanuk Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 08:00 Penginoeman Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 08:00 Belimbingsari Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 08:00 Tjandikesuma Indonesia  0.1