Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 108 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (06 Apr 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 108 km/h 0.4 m 204 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 133 km/h 2.5 m 625 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

133 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 06 Apr 2021 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 158 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Apr 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmIndonesia4,369,591 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 274 280 thousand
- - - - Timor-Leste, Indonesia
Blue 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 160 50 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 155 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 127 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 233 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 542 -
- - - - - Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Derby, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Apr 2021 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Apr 2021 12:00 Derby Australia  0.4
06 Apr 2021 09:15 Broome Australia  0.4
06 Apr 2021 09:15 Thangoo Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 08:30 Pender Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 08:30 Kollan I Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Mardie Australia  0.3
06 Apr 2021 06:45 Waterbank Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 11:15 Wickham Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 11:15 Point Samson Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 11:15 Cossack Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 07:45 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 12:00 Port Hedland Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 12:00 Wedgefield Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 12:00 Karratha Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 08:45 Menango Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 08:45 Tandjungkarang Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 08:45 Telukbetung Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 08:45 Tarahan Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 12:00 Dampier Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 08:45 Kekatang Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 12:00 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 09:00 Kiluan Indonesia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 06:30 Pardoo Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 06:45 Condon Australia  0.2
06 Apr 2021 08:30 Vasse Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 08:30 Broadwater Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 08:30 Busselton Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 08:30 Wonnerup Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 08:30 Ludlow Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 09:15 Umbulan Pepanggar Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 09:15 Kalianda Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 11:30 Maoe Ndai Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 11:30 Manoeran Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 11:30 Pigadjawa Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 11:30 Nangaboa Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 11:30 Waroe Kasoe Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 11:30 Wassa Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 12:00 Pasuruan Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:45 Oeboeah Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:45 Hansisi Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:45 Naioni Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:45 Tenau Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:45 Manoelairoti Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:45 Namosain Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:45 Kupang Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:45 Soelamoe Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:45 Maoelafa Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:45 Pitai Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:45 Manikin Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:45 Pariti Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:45 Naimoeti Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 07:00 Learmonth Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 11:00 Tjikawung Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 11:00 Sumur Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 11:00 Aerdjeruk Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 11:00 Babakancibeber Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 09:30 Kendal Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 09:30 Mangkang-Kulan Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 09:30 Djomblang Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 09:30 Semarang Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 09:30 Karangroto Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Onslow Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 12:00 Laboean Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Ah Chong I Australia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 12:00 Baliga Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 12:00 Sumberkuning Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 11:00 Chilachap Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 11:00 Adipala Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Koekoewerang Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Throng Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Adoenara Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Lamakera Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Papelawe Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Sagu Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Wotanglolong Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Lewokeling Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Witihama Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Boleng Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Nereng Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Lewoleba Indonesia  0.1
06 Apr 2021 06:00 Lamanuna Indonesia  0.1