Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 101 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.4 m (11 Apr 12:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 101 km/h 2.4 m 117 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 133 km/h 2.5 m 625 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

133 km/h

Up to 100 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Australia31 
Tropical StormAustralia99,243 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Apr 2021 06:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 08 Apr 2021 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 08 Apr 2021 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 09 Apr 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 09 Apr 2021 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 09 Apr 2021 12:00 130 Few people
- - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Australia3,780,634
+
Indonesia3,764,649 
Australia15,985 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 274 280 thousand
- - - - Timor-Leste, Indonesia
Blue 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 160 50 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 155 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 127 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 233 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 204 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 220 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 255 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 296 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 318 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Apr 2021 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 08 Apr 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 08 Apr 2021 18:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 09 Apr 2021 00:00 185 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 09 Apr 2021 06:00 131 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 09 Apr 2021 12:00 385 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.4m in Tamala, Australia. This height is estimated for 11 Apr 2021 12:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Apr 2021 12:30 Tamala Australia  2.4
11 Apr 2021 10:45 Useless Loop Australia  2.4
11 Apr 2021 10:30 Dirk Hartog Australia  2.2
11 Apr 2021 12:30 Hamelin Pool Australia  2.0
11 Apr 2021 12:30 Hamelin Australia  2.0
11 Apr 2021 13:30 Nanga Australia  1.9
11 Apr 2021 13:45 Carrarang Australia  1.9
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Gladstone Australia  1.8
11 Apr 2021 11:00 Denham Australia  1.7
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Shark Bay Australia  1.4
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Monkey Mia Australia  1.4
11 Apr 2021 13:45 Kalbarri Australia  0.9
11 Apr 2021 14:15 Gregory Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 14:15 Lynton Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 14:45 Horrocks Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 17:00 Denison Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 17:00 Port Denison Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 17:00 Dongara Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 15:30 Geraldton Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 15:30 Drummond Cove Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 15:30 Popes Landing Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 15:30 Waggrakine Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Carnarvon Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 16:15 Greenough Australia  0.6
10 Apr 2021 09:45 Learmonth Australia  0.5
11 Apr 2021 17:00 Illawong Australia  0.5
11 Apr 2021 17:00 Coolimba Australia  0.5
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Leeman Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 07:45 Quobba Australia  0.3
10 Apr 2021 09:15 Exmouth Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 17:30 Green Head Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 07:45 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 21:15 Mardie Australia  0.3
10 Apr 2021 08:45 Onslow Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 17:30 Jurien Australia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 08:45 Glenroy Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Broadwater Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Busselton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Wonnerup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Ludlow Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Dalyellup Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 13:30 Derby Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 20:00 Wickham Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 20:00 Point Samson Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 20:00 Cossack Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Binningup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Myalup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Burragenup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Gunyulgup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Yallingup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Dunsborough Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Quindalup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Vasse Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 19:15 Karratha Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Bunbury Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:15 Picton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Eaton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 19:30 Australind Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 07:30 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 19:30 Dampier Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 20:15 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:30 Cervantes Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Kandangan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Gresik Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Pangkalan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Batoe Porong Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:15 Kebanjar Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 07:00 Warroora Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Ah Chong I Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Safety Bay Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Rockingham Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Fremantle Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Warnbro Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 North Fremantle Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 East Fremantle Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Coogee Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Spearwood Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Wattleup Australia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 18:30 Broome Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Lancelin Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Falcon Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Mandurah Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Peelhurst Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Singleton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:45 Karnup Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 02:45 Maringgai Indonesia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 09:00 Thangoo Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Mosman Park Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Cottesloe Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Peppermint Grove Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Swanbourne Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Claremont Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Bicton Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:00 Baliga Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:00 Laboean Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Seabird Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Guilderton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 North Beach Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Scarborough Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 03:00 Kramat Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 03:00 Cengkarengbelakang Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 03:00 Tipar Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 03:00 Domas Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 03:00 Tanara Indonesia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 03:00 Ketapang Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Mullalloo Beach Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:45 Two Rocks Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 19:15 Port Hedland Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 19:15 Wedgefield Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Yanchep Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Quinns Rock Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Sidoardjo Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Pasuruan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:45 Sumberkuning Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 20:00 Gracetown Australia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:00 Balubuk Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 07:00 Cardabia Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 03:15 Merak Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Sampang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Bayeman Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Probolinggo Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 02:45 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Gending Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Kraksaan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Karagajar Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 10:15 Kendal Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 10:15 Mangkang-Kulan Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 10:15 Djomblang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 10:15 Semarang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 10:15 Karangroto Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 08:45 Losan Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 09:15 Cilancang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 09:15 Cirebon Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Galis Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 09:15 Bulakamba Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:00 Prenduan Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 05:30 Sidaju Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 10:00 Wedung Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 10:00 Kedungmalang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 08:45 Klampok Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:30 Pardoo Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 03:00 Bakau Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 20:00 Menango Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 20:00 Tandjungkarang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 20:00 Telukbetung Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 20:00 Tarahan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:30 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Besuki Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 10:00 Bugel Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 09:00 Karangampel Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 09:30 Sidja Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 17:15 Pender Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Djate Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Bluto Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Saroka Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Sumenep Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Bundan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Condon Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 09:45 Jepara Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 09:45 Karanggondang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 09:30 Petaroekan Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 09:30 Sigedang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 09:30 Pekalongan Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 08:45 Tegal Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 08:45 Wanasari Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Mandingan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Gedugan Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 09:30 Esperance Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 09:30 Doombup Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Kiluan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Kekatang Indonesia  0.1