Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LINCOLN-24 in Australia from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LINCOLN-24

in Australia

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LINCOLN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (20 Feb 14:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	72 km/h	0.4 m	110 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	1.3 m	727 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 20 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	15 Feb 2024 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	15 Feb 2024 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2024 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 Feb 2024 00:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 Feb 2024 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 Feb 2024 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 Feb 2024 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	19 Feb 2024 00:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	19 Feb 2024 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	20 Feb 2024 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	20 Feb 2024 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	163,078	+
	Indonesia	151,299
	Papua New Guinea	11,778
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia	8,148,199	+
	Indonesia	7,434,581
	Papua New Guinea	688,635
	East Timor	959
	Australia	24,023

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 00:00	209	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
2	15 Feb 2024 12:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
3	16 Feb 2024 00:00	114	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	89	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
5	17 Feb 2024 00:00	92	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 12:00	135	9 thousand		-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
7	18 Feb 2024 00:00	131	-	-	-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, Australia
8	18 Feb 2024 12:00	235	Few people		-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
9	19 Feb 2024 00:00	132	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea
10	19 Feb 2024 12:00	227	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
11	20 Feb 2024 00:00	103	Few people		-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
12	20 Feb 2024 12:00	272	160 thousand		-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Port Augusta West, Australia. This height is estimated for 20 Feb 2024 14:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	20 Feb 2024 14:45	Port Augusta West	Australia	0.4
	20 Feb 2024 14:45	Port Augusta	Australia	0.4
	20 Feb 2024 14:45	Stirling North	Australia	0.4
	20 Feb 2024 13:15	Port Germein	Australia	0.4
	20 Feb 2024 13:15	Port Pirie	Australia	0.4
	20 Feb 2024 13:15	Solomontown	Australia	0.4
	20 Feb 2024 13:15	Telowie	Australia	0.4
	20 Feb 2024 13:30	Port Bonython	Australia	0.4
	20 Feb 2024 13:15	Port Davis	Australia	0.3
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Whyalla	Australia	0.3
	20 Feb 2024 21:30	Wyndham	Australia	0.3
	20 Feb 2024 13:45	Port Broughton	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 14:00	Running Creek	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Soeam	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 13:30	Wallaroo	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 13:30	Tickera	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 13:15	Alyangula	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:00	Aloszville	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:30	Heits	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 15:45	Aibinio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 15:45	Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 15:45	Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 15:45	Umuda I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:15	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:15	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:15	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:15	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:15	Koravaki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:15	Mariki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:15	Ara'ava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:15	Kinipo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 16:00	Auti	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 16:00	Daware	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 16:00	Mibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 16:00	Iasa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 13:30	Warburto	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 23:15	Kapai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 23:15	Apiope	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 23:15	Ravi-kevau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 23:15	Marea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 23:15	Iuku	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 23:15	Herekera	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 14:00	Ipisia	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 14:00	Agobara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 14:00	Samari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 14:00	Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 15:45	Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 13:45	Numbulwar	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Caburinga Village	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 13:30	Port Hughes	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 13:30	Port Moonta	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 13:30	Moonta Bay	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 13:30	Moonta	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Segero	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Sisiama No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Tugara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Bamio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Dibiri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Orapoi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Oropai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Buniki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Tirere	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Bina No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Bunigi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:45	Karumba	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:45	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:45	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:45	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 23:45	Akoma	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 20:45	Ekeirau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 20:45	Pai-a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 20:45	Moinamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 20:45	Namaituri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 20:45	Goari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 20:45	Ubua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 20:45	Dopima	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 20:45	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 16:15	Ok Village	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 20:00	Daru	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 20:00	Dorogari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 20:00	Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 20:00	Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Bing Bong	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 23:15	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:00	Misiki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:00	Giwaretore	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:00	Gibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:00	Ibou	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:00	Morigio I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:00	Mapoi'a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:15	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	The Palms	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Parap	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Darwin	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Nightcliff	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Ludmilla	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Bagot	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Leanyer	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Knuckeys Lagoon	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Berrimah	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Boigu	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Bugi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 15:15	Ume	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Dauan	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Saibai	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Hamlet of Togo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Gove	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Yirrkala Mission	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Yirrkala	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Tais	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Ture Ture	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Boze	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:45	Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:45	Waidoro	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 17:15	Cape York	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Tapapi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Amagoa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Airua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:15	Asaramio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Badu	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 17:30	Port Kennedy	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 14:30	Nhulunbuy	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Mirua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 16:00	Hammond I	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 17:30	Taroea Anim	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 13:30	Cowell	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Mari	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 16:00	Cowel Creek	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 16:00	Seisia	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 16:00	Bamaga	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 20:30	Birab	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 21:30	Kuria	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 20:30	Otsjanep	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 20:30	Jow	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 21:15	Setiroek	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:30	Bapuju	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:30	Bahaur	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 14:00	Balgowan	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Busselton	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Wonnerup	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Ludlow	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Dalyellup	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 20:30	Pagatan	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 20:15	Kualalupak	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 20:00	Windy Harbour	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:15	Dolatanden	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 14:30	Derby	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Soengaiamang	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Weipa	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Weipa South	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Tamerau	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Barattar	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Bunbury	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Picton	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Eaton	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Australind	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Jara	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Point Soultar	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Point Turton	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Warooka	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Minlacowie	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Brentwood	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 23:30	Sabui	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:45	Port Gibbon	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Kulinchin	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Per	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Amborip	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Biwarlaut	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:45	Brassan	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:45	Muntjar	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:45	Blimbing	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:45	Dadapan	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:45	Banjuwangi	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:45	Penginoeman	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:45	Belimbingsari	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:15	Red Cliffs	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:15	Port Victoria	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Aluhaluh	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Tambakkarangan	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Bawahalajung	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:15	Port Rickaby	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Kowanyama	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:15	Vasse	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:15	Broadwater	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 12:00	Kondomiraf	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:45	Tabanio	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 17:30	Milyeannup	Australia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.