Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LINCOLN-24 in Australia from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LINCOLN-24

in Australia

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LINCOLN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia
Exposed population	1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	0 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (22 Feb 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	0 km/h	0.5 m	169 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	1.3 m	727 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

Up to 100 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 5	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia	902,937	+
	Indonesia	890,262
	Papua New Guinea	3,943
	East Timor	3,029
	Australia	5,703
CAT. 4	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia	38,666	+
	Indonesia	37,503
	Papua New Guinea	231
	East Timor	636
	Australia	295
CAT. 3	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	16,969	+
	Indonesia	16,854
	Papua New Guinea	08
	Australia	107
CAT. 2	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	34,375	+
	Indonesia	34,160
	Papua New Guinea	52
	Australia	162
CAT. 1	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia	41,659	+
	Indonesia	41,395
	Papua New Guinea	154
	East Timor	20
	Australia	88
Tropical Storm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	98,899	+
	Indonesia	98,322
	Papua New Guinea	302
	Australia	274

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	15 Feb 2024 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2024 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 Feb 2024 00:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 Feb 2024 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 Feb 2024 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 Feb 2024 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	19 Feb 2024 00:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	19 Feb 2024 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	20 Feb 2024 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	20 Feb 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	21 Feb 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	21 Feb 2024 12:00	-	1 million							Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	944,834	+
	Indonesia	840,763
	Papua New Guinea	103,230
	Australia	840
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia	15,894,193	+
	Indonesia	15,013,343
	Papua New Guinea	861,919
	East Timor	4,863
	Australia	14,066

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 00:00	209	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
2	15 Feb 2024 12:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
3	16 Feb 2024 00:00	114	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	89	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
5	17 Feb 2024 00:00	92	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 12:00	135	9 thousand		-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
7	18 Feb 2024 00:00	131	-	-	-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, Australia
8	18 Feb 2024 12:00	235	Few people		-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
9	19 Feb 2024 00:00	132	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea
10	19 Feb 2024 12:00	227	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
11	20 Feb 2024 00:00	103	Few people		-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
12	20 Feb 2024 12:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
13	21 Feb 2024 00:00	99	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea
14	21 Feb 2024 12:00	317	940 thousand		-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Derby, Australia. This height is estimated for 22 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Derby	Australia	0.5
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Derby	Australia	0.4
	21 Feb 2024 21:00	Kollan I	Australia	0.3
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Augusta West	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Augusta	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Stirling North	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:45	Port Germein	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:45	Port Pirie	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:45	Solomontown	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:45	Telowie	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:00	Port Davis	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:30	Running Creek	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Aloszville	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Bonython	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Aibinio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Segero	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Dibiri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Oropai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Tirere	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Umuda I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:15	Whyalla	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:45	Tugara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:45	Bina No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:15	Port Broughton	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:30	Ok Village	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:45	Misiki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:45	Giwaretore	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:45	Gibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:45	Ibou	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:45	Morigio I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:45	Mapoi'a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 23:45	Pender	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 16:00	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 16:00	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 16:00	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 16:00	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 16:00	Koravaki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 16:00	Mariki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 16:00	Ara'ava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 16:00	Kinipo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:15	Ekeirau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:15	Pai-a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:15	Moinamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:15	Namaituri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:15	Goari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:15	Ubua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:15	Dopima	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:15	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Apiope	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Marea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Iuku	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Herekera	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:30	Akoma	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:30	Kapai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Ravi-kevau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Auti	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Daware	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Mibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Iasa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:15	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:00	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:00	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:00	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 17:00	Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 17:00	Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 17:00	Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	Bunigi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Buniki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Ipisia	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Sisiama No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Bamio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Orapoi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:15	Agobara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:15	Samari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:15	Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 21:30	Daru	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 21:30	Dorogari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 23:00	Ture Ture	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 23:00	Boze	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 23:00	Ume	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Tickera	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Asaramio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Tapapi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Amagoa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Airua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:30	Mirua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 22:30	Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Wallaroo	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 22:30	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:30	Saibai	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:30	Hamlet of Togo	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:30	Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:30	Waidoro	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 19:00	Streaky Bay	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 15:45	Kuria	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:45	Dauan	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 19:15	Soeam	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 21:15	Cape York	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 18:45	Per	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 18:45	Amborip	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 18:45	Biwarlaut	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 18:45	Jow	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 17:30	Eyre	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 18:30	Heits	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Warburto	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 19:15	Haslam	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 17:45	Jofar	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 17:45	Agats	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 20:45	Badu	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:00	Boigu	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:00	Bugi	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Cowel Creek	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Seisia	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Bamaga	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 17:00	Thundulda	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:30	Port Hughes	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:30	Port Moonta	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:30	Moonta Bay	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:30	Moonta	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 20:45	Port Kennedy	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Hammond I	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 19:00	Denial Bay	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 19:00	Thevenard	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 19:00	Ceduna	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 19:45	Otsjanep	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 19:45	Birab	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Sarire	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Tamarike	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 20:45	Pardoo	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Kotad	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Dumande	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Onggalie	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Okaba	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Moegaigare	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Alakoe	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Alatepi	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Kumbe	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Anansai	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Wendu	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Matara	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Urum	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Kobiem	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Wyndham	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Merauke	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Daub	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 17:30	Taroea Anim	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 15:30	Point Soultar	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 15:30	Point Turton	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 15:30	Warooka	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 15:30	Port Minlacowie	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 15:30	Brentwood	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	The Palms	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Parap	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Darwin	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Nightcliff	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Ludmilla	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Bagot	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Leanyer	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Knuckeys Lagoon	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Berrimah	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	Salt Lake	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	Muston	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	American River	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 21:45	Dolatanden	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Tamerau	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Barattar	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Welab	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:00	Brassan	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:00	Muntjar	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:00	Blimbing	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:00	Dadapan	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:00	Banjuwangi	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:00	Penginoeman	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 13:00	Belimbingsari	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Papisote	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.