Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LINCOLN-24 in Australia from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LINCOLN-24

in Australia

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LINCOLN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	50 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (17 Feb 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	50 km/h	0.4 m	135 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	1.3 m	727 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	25

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	15 Feb 2024 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2024 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 Feb 2024 00:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 Feb 2024 12:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Indonesia	369
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	706,344	+
	Indonesia	593,953
	Papua New Guinea	109,532
	Australia	2,857
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	17,065,212	+
	Indonesia	16,473,332
	Papua New Guinea	570,927
	Australia	20,952

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 00:00	209	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
2	15 Feb 2024 12:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
3	16 Feb 2024 00:00	114	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	89	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
5	17 Feb 2024 00:00	92	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 12:00	578	710 thousand			-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Alyangula, Australia. This height is estimated for 17 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Alyangula	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Bing Bong	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Numbulwar	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Asaramio	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Tapapi	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Amagoa	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Sisiama No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Tugara	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Bamio	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Orapoi	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Buniki	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Bina No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Airua	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Bunigi	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:15	Auti	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:15	Daware	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:15	Mibu	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:15	Iasa	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 17:30	Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 17:30	Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 17:30	Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:30	Aibinio	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:30	Ipisia	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:30	Segero	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:30	Dibiri	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:30	Oropai	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:30	Tirere	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:30	Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:15	Giwaretore	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:15	Ibou	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Running Creek	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 17:15	Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 17:15	Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 17:15	Umuda I	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:30	Agobara	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:30	Samari	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:30	Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Mapoi'a	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Karumba	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 14:00	Aloszville	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Caburinga Village	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Ekeirau	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Pai-a	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Namaituri	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Goari	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Ubua	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Dopima	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 20:15	Misiki	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 20:15	Gibu	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 20:15	Morigio I	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:00	Moinamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Koravaki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Mariki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Ara'ava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Kinipo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Daru	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Dorogari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Akoma	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Kapai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Apiope	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:00	Ravi-kevau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:00	Marea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:00	Iuku	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Herekera	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Gove	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Yirrkala Mission	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Yirrkala	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:00	Mirua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Kuria	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:30	Nhulunbuy	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:00	Ture Ture	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:00	Boze	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:00	Ume	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 15:00	Ok Village	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 15:15	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 15:15	Saibai	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 15:15	Hamlet of Togo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 15:15	Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 15:15	Waidoro	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:00	Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 13:00	Cape York	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:15	Port Kennedy	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 13:15	Derby	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:30	Derby	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:30	Badu	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Hammond I	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:30	Dauan	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Cowel Creek	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Seisia	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Bamaga	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:15	The Palms	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:15	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:15	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:15	Parap	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:15	Darwin	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:15	Nightcliff	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:15	Ludmilla	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:15	Bagot	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:15	Leanyer	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:15	Knuckeys Lagoon	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:15	Berrimah	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Boigu	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Bugi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Tais	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 21:00	Wyndham	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 17:30	Bapuju	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 17:30	Bahaur	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Kowanyama	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:30	Jara	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:30	Mari	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 17:45	Kualalupak	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Kondomiraf	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 23:45	Toegrama	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Kulinchin	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Mapoon	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Weipa	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Weipa South	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 18:30	Aluhaluh	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 18:30	Tambakkarangan	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 18:30	Bawahalajung	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 15:00	Brassan	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 15:00	Muntjar	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 15:00	Blimbing	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 15:00	Dadapan	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 15:00	Banjuwangi	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 15:00	Penginoeman	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 15:00	Belimbingsari	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 18:15	Tabanio	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Bula	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Sanindara	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 18:30	Pagetan	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Minjilang	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Tamerau	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Barattar	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 19:15	Port Augusta West	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 19:15	Port Augusta	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 19:15	Stirling North	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 23:45	Roefroefoea	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 23:45	Naoer	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Agatebi	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 20:30	Soeam	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Sakaoeni	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.