Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LINCOLN-24 in Australia from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LINCOLN-24

in Australia

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LINCOLN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	47 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.9 m (17 Feb 03:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	47 km/h	0.9 m	92 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	1.3 m	727 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	15 Feb 2024 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	15 Feb 2024 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2024 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 Feb 2024 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	638,650	+
	Indonesia	531,470
	Papua New Guinea	102,930
	Australia	4,249
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	20,897,092	+
	Indonesia	20,605,516
	Papua New Guinea	275,211
	Australia	16,363

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 00:00	209	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
2	15 Feb 2024 12:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
3	16 Feb 2024 00:00	114	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	89	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
5	17 Feb 2024 00:00	341	640 thousand		-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.9m in Karumba, Australia. This height is estimated for 17 Feb 2024 03:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 Feb 2024 03:15	Karumba	Australia	0.9
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Bing Bong	Australia	0.6
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Kowanyama	Australia	0.6
	17 Feb 2024 01:00	Alyangula	Australia	0.6
	17 Feb 2024 00:30	Caburinga Village	Australia	0.6
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Kulinchin	Australia	0.6
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Gove	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Yirrkala Mission	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Yirrkala	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 05:15	Numbulwar	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Mapoon	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Nhulunbuy	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Weipa	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Weipa South	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Badu	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Hammond I	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Port Kennedy	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Cowel Creek	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Bula	Papua New Guinea	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Jara	Papua New Guinea	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Mari	Papua New Guinea	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Kondomiraf	Indonesia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Seisia	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Bamaga	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:30	Cape York	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Barattar	Indonesia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Tais	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:30	Tamerau	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Tamarike	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:00	Misiki	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:00	Giwaretore	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:00	Gibu	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:00	Ibou	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:00	Morigio I	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:00	Mapoi'a	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Sarire	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:15	Soeam	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:30	Dumande	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:30	Onggalie	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:30	Kumbe	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:30	Anansai	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Asaramio	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Tapapi	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Amagoa	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Sisiama No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Tugara	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Bamio	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Orapoi	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Buniki	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Bina No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Airua	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Bunigi	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Matara	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Urum	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Merauke	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 01:15	Wendu	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Segero	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Dibiri	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Oropai	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Tirere	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 01:00	Boigu	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 01:00	Bugi	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:30	Kotad	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 01:00	Daub	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 08:15	Aibinio	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 08:15	Umuda I	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:00	Auti	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:00	Daware	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:00	Mibu	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:00	Iasa	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:15	Moegaigare	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:15	Alakoe	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:15	Alatepi	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Okaba	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:45	Kobiem	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:15	Ipisia	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:15	Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Koravaki	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Mariki	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Ara'ava	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Kinipo	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:15	Heits	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Welab	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Saibai	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Hamlet of Togo	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Waidoro	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 05:45	Running Creek	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:30	Ekeirau	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:15	Pai-a	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:15	Namaituri	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 04:15	Dauan	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Papisote	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Agobara	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Samari	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:30	Goari	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:30	Ubua	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:30	Dopima	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Ture Ture	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Boze	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Ume	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Daru	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Dorogari	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:00	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:00	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:00	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:15	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:30	Moinamu	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 09:15	Akoma	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 09:15	Kapai	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 05:45	Aloszville	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 09:00	Apiope	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 09:00	Ravi-kevau	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 09:00	Marea	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 09:00	Iuku	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 09:30	Herekera	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Komoran	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Wamal	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Dokib	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Gelib	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Kandala Jawal	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Dodalim	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Yulbabuti	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Ok Village	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Mirua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:15	Pasirputih	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Dolatanden	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 02:00	Wan	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 02:00	Konerau	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 02:00	Selemit	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Sabon	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Kladar	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Tor	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Taroea Anim	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Kuria	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Derby	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 08:45	Broome	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 08:45	Thangoo	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 02:45	Per	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 02:45	Amborip	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 02:45	Biwarlaut	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 02:45	Jow	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 03:15	Otsjanep	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Birab	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 00:45	Jofar	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 01:15	Agats	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Brassan	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Muntjar	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Blimbing	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Dadapan	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Banjuwangi	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Penginoeman	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Belimbingsari	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Derby	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 01:30	Amamapare	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:15	Minjilang	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:15	Toegrama	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:00	Pono	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:00	Kobadangar	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:00	Basada	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:00	Kobroor	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:00	Djamboeai	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:00	Barakan	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 00:30	Ndapurutiri	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 02:15	Rabal	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 02:15	Kangoerma	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 01:45	Kedjabi	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 10:45	Podena	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 10:45	Armopa	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 01:15	Keojabi	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 00:30	Timuka	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.