Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LINCOLN-24 in Australia from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LINCOLN-24

in Australia

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LINCOLN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	58 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.2 m (16 Feb 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	58 km/h	1.2 m	89 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	1.3 m	727 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 16 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	15 Feb 2024 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	15 Feb 2024 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2024 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	432,319	+
	Indonesia	409,034
	Papua New Guinea	22,371
	Australia	914
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	21,773,534	+
	Indonesia	21,050,797
	Papua New Guinea	704,599
	Australia	18,138

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 00:00	209	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
2	15 Feb 2024 12:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
3	16 Feb 2024 00:00	114	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	231	430 thousand		-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

1.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.2m in Karumba, Australia. This height is estimated for 16 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 Feb 2024 12:00	Karumba	Australia	1.2
	16 Feb 2024 16:15	Bing Bong	Australia	1.0
	16 Feb 2024 15:15	Alyangula	Australia	0.8
	16 Feb 2024 12:00	Kowanyama	Australia	0.8
	16 Feb 2024 12:00	Numbulwar	Australia	0.8
	16 Feb 2024 12:00	Kulinchin	Australia	0.7
	16 Feb 2024 14:30	Caburinga Village	Australia	0.7
	16 Feb 2024 14:30	Weipa	Australia	0.7
	16 Feb 2024 14:30	Weipa South	Australia	0.7
	16 Feb 2024 14:15	Mapoon	Australia	0.7
	16 Feb 2024 12:00	Badu	Australia	0.7
	16 Feb 2024 12:00	Hammond I	Australia	0.7
	16 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Kennedy	Australia	0.7
	16 Feb 2024 14:15	Gove	Australia	0.7
	16 Feb 2024 14:15	Yirrkala Mission	Australia	0.7
	16 Feb 2024 14:15	Yirrkala	Australia	0.7
	16 Feb 2024 12:00	Bula	Papua New Guinea	0.7
	16 Feb 2024 12:00	Jara	Papua New Guinea	0.7
	16 Feb 2024 12:00	Cowel Creek	Australia	0.6
	16 Feb 2024 12:00	Mari	Papua New Guinea	0.6
	16 Feb 2024 14:30	Nhulunbuy	Australia	0.6
	16 Feb 2024 12:15	Kondomiraf	Indonesia	0.6
	16 Feb 2024 15:45	Tamerau	Indonesia	0.6
	16 Feb 2024 16:00	Barattar	Indonesia	0.6
	16 Feb 2024 16:00	Tamarike	Indonesia	0.6
	16 Feb 2024 14:45	Sarire	Indonesia	0.6
	16 Feb 2024 15:15	Matara	Indonesia	0.6
	16 Feb 2024 15:15	Urum	Indonesia	0.6
	16 Feb 2024 15:15	Merauke	Indonesia	0.6
	16 Feb 2024 15:15	Daub	Indonesia	0.6
	16 Feb 2024 14:45	Anansai	Indonesia	0.6
	16 Feb 2024 14:45	Wendu	Indonesia	0.6
	16 Feb 2024 15:00	Kumbe	Indonesia	0.6
	16 Feb 2024 14:45	Onggalie	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 15:00	Dumande	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 15:15	Kotad	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 16:00	Kandala Jawal	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 16:00	Wamal	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 16:00	Gelib	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 16:00	Dokib	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 16:00	Dodalim	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 16:00	Yulbabuti	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 12:00	Seisia	Australia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 12:00	Bamaga	Australia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 16:15	Papisote	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 16:00	Welab	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 16:15	Okaba	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 16:15	Moegaigare	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 16:15	Alakoe	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 16:15	Alatepi	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 15:30	Kobiem	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 14:45	Tais	Papua New Guinea	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 12:30	Cape York	Australia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 14:00	Komoran	Indonesia	0.5
	16 Feb 2024 15:15	Boigu	Australia	0.4
	16 Feb 2024 15:15	Bugi	Papua New Guinea	0.4
	16 Feb 2024 14:00	Pasirputih	Indonesia	0.4
	16 Feb 2024 14:15	Selemit	Indonesia	0.4
	16 Feb 2024 13:15	Wan	Indonesia	0.4
	16 Feb 2024 13:15	Konerau	Indonesia	0.4
	16 Feb 2024 13:45	Tor	Indonesia	0.4
	16 Feb 2024 13:45	Kladar	Indonesia	0.4
	16 Feb 2024 14:00	Sabon	Indonesia	0.4
	16 Feb 2024 14:30	Dauan	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Soeam	Indonesia	0.3
	16 Feb 2024 13:15	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	16 Feb 2024 13:30	Saibai	Australia	0.3
	16 Feb 2024 13:45	Hamlet of Togo	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	16 Feb 2024 13:45	Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Heits	Indonesia	0.3
	16 Feb 2024 22:30	Taroea Anim	Indonesia	0.3
	16 Feb 2024 22:45	Dolatanden	Indonesia	0.3
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Running Creek	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Koravaki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Mariki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Ara'ava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Kinipo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Misiki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Giwaretore	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Gibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Ibou	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Morigio I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Mapoi'a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 22:00	Aibinio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 22:00	Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 22:00	Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 22:00	Umuda I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 22:00	Aloszville	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Ipisia	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 22:45	Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 22:45	Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:30	Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:30	Mibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Agobara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Samari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 21:00	Birab	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Segero	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Sisiama No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Tugara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Bamio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Dibiri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Orapoi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Oropai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Buniki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Tirere	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Bina No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Bunigi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:00	Ekeirau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:15	Daru	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:15	Dorogari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:15	Pai-a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:15	Namaituri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:30	Apiope	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:30	Ravi-kevau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:30	Marea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:30	Iuku	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:30	Herekera	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Daware	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:30	Goari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:30	Dopima	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:30	Ubua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:30	Kapai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:30	Akoma	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 21:30	Jow	Indonesia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 21:30	Otsjanep	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Ume	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:45	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 23:15	Moinamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Iasa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Ture Ture	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Boze	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 19:30	Per	Indonesia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 19:30	Amborip	Indonesia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 19:30	Biwarlaut	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Auti	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Tapapi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Amagoa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Airua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Asaramio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 14:15	Waidoro	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 12:15	Ok Village	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 20:45	Agats	Indonesia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 19:00	Minjilang	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 20:45	Jofar	Indonesia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 12:15	Brassan	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 12:15	Muntjar	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 12:15	Blimbing	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 12:15	Dadapan	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 12:15	Banjuwangi	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 12:15	Penginoeman	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 12:15	Belimbingsari	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 22:30	The Palms	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 22:30	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 22:30	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 22:30	Parap	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 22:30	Darwin	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 22:30	Nightcliff	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 22:30	Ludmilla	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 22:30	Bagot	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 22:30	Leanyer	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 22:30	Knuckeys Lagoon	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 22:30	Berrimah	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 21:15	Amamapare	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 23:30	Longar	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 23:30	Baimoeh	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 23:30	Gomo Gomo	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 23:30	Masian	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Mirua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 18:00	Ndapurutiri	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 23:45	Djamboeai	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 23:45	Barakan	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 23:45	Rabal	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 23:45	Kangoerma	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 18:00	Timuka	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.