Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,
11 Feb 2020 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 58 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (11 Feb 11:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 58 km/h 0.3 m 220 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 83 km/h 0.5 m 947 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

83 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 04 Feb 2020 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Feb 2020 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 06 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Feb 2020 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 07 Feb 2020 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 07 Feb 2020 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 08 Feb 2020 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 09 Feb 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 09 Feb 2020 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 10 Feb 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 10 Feb 2020 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 11 Feb 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Reunion843
+
Madagascar836 
Reunion07 
50-100 mmTanzania, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Reunion571,168
+
Tanzania450 
Mozambique13,719 
Comoros5,601 
Madagascar390,073 
Reunion161,325 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 00:00 245 -
- - - - - Seychelles
Blue 2 04 Feb 2020 12:00 494 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Feb 2020 00:00 389 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 292 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 06 Feb 2020 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 06 Feb 2020 12:00 449 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 07 Feb 2020 00:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 07 Feb 2020 12:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Feb 2020 00:00 310 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 08 Feb 2020 12:00 472 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 09 Feb 2020 00:00 278 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 09 Feb 2020 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 10 Feb 2020 00:00 387 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 10 Feb 2020 12:00 150 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 15 11 Feb 2020 00:00 275 Few people
- - - - Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Ambato, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 11 Feb 2020 11:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Manehoko Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 10:00 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 10:00 Fararano Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 10:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 10:00 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 10:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 10:00 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 10:00 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Voloina Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Manambia Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 00:30 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 00:30 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Andranira Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Mandrorohabe Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 00:15 Metuge Mozambique  0.2
11 Feb 2020 00:15 Mussange Mozambique  0.2
11 Feb 2020 00:15 Acache Mozambique  0.2
11 Feb 2020 00:15 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.2
11 Feb 2020 00:15 Messequero Mozambique  0.2
11 Feb 2020 00:15 Atolo Mozambique  0.2
11 Feb 2020 00:15 Murrebue Mozambique  0.2
11 Feb 2020 00:15 Luguni Mozambique  0.2
11 Feb 2020 00:15 Tari Mozambique  0.2
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Antananabe Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Antotoro Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Ampohana Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 05:15 Saint-Antoine Mauritius  0.2
11 Feb 2020 05:15 Riviere du Rempart Mauritius  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 10:30 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 10:30 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 07:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Ampasimena Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Quinga Mozambique  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Metula Mozambique  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Momade Mozambique  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Metopa Mozambique  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 09:30 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 09:30 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 09:30 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 09:30 Androlavy Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 09:30 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2020 01:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 01:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Tsinjorano Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Dzamandzar Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Marovoha Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 00:45 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Baly Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 00:45 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Ankilahila Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Ambalihabe Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Anompaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Ankomany Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Mariarano Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Berafia Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Miquindane Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Lurio Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Ombauine Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:30 Madimba Tanzania  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:30 Assane Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:30 Mwambo Tanzania  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:30 Msimbati Tanzania  0.1
11 Feb 2020 05:15 Riche-en-Eau Mauritius  0.1
11 Feb 2020 05:15 Maheboug Mauritius  0.1
11 Feb 2020 05:15 Grande Reviere Sud Est Mauritius  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:30 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:30 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:30 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:30 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:30 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:30 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:00 Mangaoka Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Madirobe Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 02:00 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 02:00 Andohonko Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 02:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Ambariomena Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Antsahabe Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Onara Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 05:15 La Ferme Mauritius  0.1
11 Feb 2020 05:15 Port Mathurin Mauritius  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Quiterajo Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Ingoane Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Pangane Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 01:45 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 01:45 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 01:45 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 01:45 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:45 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:30 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:00 Bawala Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:00 Olumbe Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:00 Boala Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:00 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:45 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:45 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:45 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:45 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:45 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:30 Ambodizaotra Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 02:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 02:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 02:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 02:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Lucete Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:45 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Libambai Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:00 Ambinany Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:00 Antalaha Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:00 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:00 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:00 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:15 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:15 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 12:00 Marere Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Moliha Mayotte  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Dzoumogne Mayotte  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Chingoni Mayotte  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Dembeni Mayotte  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Longoni Mayotte  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Mamoudzou Mayotte  0.1
11 Feb 2020 10:45 Dzaoudzi Mayotte  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Arire Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Macalopa Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Meronvi Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:00 Quissengue Mozambique  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Mtwara Tanzania  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:30 Msangamkuu Tanzania  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:45 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:45 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 09:45 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2020 11:15 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1