Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,
08 Feb 2020 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 58 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (08 Feb 13:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 58 km/h 0.2 m 472 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 83 km/h 0.5 m 947 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

83 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 04 Feb 2020 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Feb 2020 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 06 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Feb 2020 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 07 Feb 2020 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 07 Feb 2020 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 08 Feb 2020 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMadagascar4,096 
50-100 mmMadagascar, Reunion121,205
+
Madagascar97,344 
Reunion23,861 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 00:00 245 -
- - - - - Seychelles
Blue 2 04 Feb 2020 12:00 494 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Feb 2020 00:00 389 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 292 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 06 Feb 2020 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 06 Feb 2020 12:00 449 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 07 Feb 2020 00:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 07 Feb 2020 12:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Feb 2020 00:00 310 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 08 Feb 2020 12:00 524 4 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Andrangazaha, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 08 Feb 2020 13:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
08 Feb 2020 13:15 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 13:15 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 13:15 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 13:15 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 13:15 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 13:15 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 14:45 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 14:45 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 19:15 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 19:15 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 12:30 Antavy Atsimo Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 12:30 Ampary Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 12:30 Talaky Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 12:30 Iambaro Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 12:30 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 22:15 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 22:15 Fararano Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 22:15 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 22:15 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 22:15 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 22:15 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 22:15 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 23:15 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 23:15 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 20:15 Antananabe Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 20:15 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 20:15 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 20:15 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 20:15 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 20:15 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 20:15 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 20:15 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 22:45 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 22:45 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 22:45 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 14:15 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
08 Feb 2020 23:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:30 Ambazoa Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:30 Ankazomanitsy Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:30 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:30 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:30 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:30 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:30 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 14:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:00 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:15 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:15 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:15 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:15 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:15 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:45 La Ferme Mauritius  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:45 Port Mathurin Mauritius  0.1
08 Feb 2020 23:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:30 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:30 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:30 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:30 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:30 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:30 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 14:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 14:15 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:30 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:30 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:30 Bevoay Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:30 Maromandia Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:00 Behavoa Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:00 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:00 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:30 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:30 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:30 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:15 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:15 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:15 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:15 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:15 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:15 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:00 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:15 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:30 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 16:45 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 16:45 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:15 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:30 Beaniky Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:15 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:45 Esanta Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 14:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 22:30 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:15 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:15 Faux-Cap Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:45 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 15:45 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 15:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 15:45 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 15:45 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:30 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:30 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:30 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:30 Anompaka Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:30 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:15 Ankaratravitra Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:45 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 14:15 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:45 Ankilihago Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 15:30 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 15:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 18:15 Andringahely Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 18:15 Ampisikanana Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:30 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 23:30 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 23:30 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 23:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 23:30 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 18:00 Ambinany Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 18:00 Antalaha Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 18:00 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 18:00 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 18:00 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:45 Elanja Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:30 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:45 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:45 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 20:45 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:45 Ampasimpolaka Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:45 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:45 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:45 Taratasy Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:45 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Acache Mozambique  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Messequero Mozambique  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Atolo Mozambique  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Luguni Mozambique  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Tari Mozambique  0.1
08 Feb 2020 19:15 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 19:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 19:15 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 19:15 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 19:15 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 19:15 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 19:15 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:45 Antanandava Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:00 Ambalanosy Madagascar  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Vila de Mocimboa da Praia Mozambique  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Meronvi Mozambique  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Quissengue Mozambique  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Metuge Mozambique  0.1
08 Feb 2020 13:30 Mussange Mozambique  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:45 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:45 Metula Mozambique  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:45 Momade Mozambique  0.1
08 Feb 2020 21:45 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1