Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,
09 Feb 2020 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (09 Feb 03:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 65 km/h 0.3 m 278 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 83 km/h 0.5 m 947 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

83 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 04 Feb 2020 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Feb 2020 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 06 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Feb 2020 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 07 Feb 2020 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 07 Feb 2020 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 08 Feb 2020 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 09 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMadagascar, Reunion69,038
+
Madagascar30,207 
Reunion38,831 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 00:00 245 -
- - - - - Seychelles
Blue 2 04 Feb 2020 12:00 494 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Feb 2020 00:00 389 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 292 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 06 Feb 2020 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 06 Feb 2020 12:00 449 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 07 Feb 2020 00:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 07 Feb 2020 12:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Feb 2020 00:00 310 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 08 Feb 2020 12:00 472 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 09 Feb 2020 00:00 381 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Ampanakana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Feb 2020 03:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Fararano Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 02:45 Bevatry Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 02:45 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Manehoko Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 04:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 01:15 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 01:15 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 01:15 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 01:15 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 01:15 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 01:15 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 10:15 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 10:15 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 10:15 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 10:15 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 10:15 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 03:45 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 04:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 01:15 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 01:15 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 01:15 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 07:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 01:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 01:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 01:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 01:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 04:30 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 04:30 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 04:30 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 01:15 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 06:45 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 07:45 Befamata Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 07:45 Zavo Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 07:45 Lavanono Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 04:30 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 02:45 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 01:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 07:45 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 07:45 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 07:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 01:15 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 01:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 06:30 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 06:30 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 07:30 Behavoa Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 06:45 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 07:15 Bevoalavo Est Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 03:30 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 07:30 Ambalanosy Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 02:45 Antananabe Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 02:45 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 02:45 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 02:45 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 02:45 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 02:45 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 02:45 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 02:45 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 07:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 08:15 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 08:15 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:45 Ampalaza Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:30 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:30 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 04:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:15 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:30 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:30 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:30 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 11:30 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 11:30 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 11:30 Mandrorohabe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 11:30 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 11:30 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:15 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:15 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:30 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:30 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:30 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Bevoay Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Maromandia Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 11:30 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:45 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:45 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:15 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:15 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:15 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:15 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:15 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:15 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:15 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 10:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:45 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:45 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:45 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:45 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 03:30 Antotoro Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 03:30 Ampohana Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 04:15 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 04:15 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:15 Miary Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:15 Behazomby Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:15 Efoetsy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:30 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 01:45 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 01:45 Ampondrahazo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 01:45 Ambolobozokely Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 01:45 Ambaritsatrana Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:15 Ankaratravitra Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:30 Ankazoabo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:30 Lavavolo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:30 Itampolo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:30 Besasavy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:30 Anja-Belitsaka Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 10:30 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:00 Androka Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:00 Tanilahy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:15 Anakao Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:15 Ankiririsa Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:15 Ankilimivony Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:15 Besamata Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 04:45 Metuge Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 04:45 Mussange Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 04:45 Acache Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 04:45 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 04:45 Messequero Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 04:45 Atolo Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 04:45 Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 04:45 Luguni Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 04:45 Tari Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:30 Belefotsy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:45 Mangaoka Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:45 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:45 Andohonko Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:45 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:00 Andringahely Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 02:00 Ampisikanana Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:30 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:30 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:30 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:15 Soalara Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 03:30 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 03:30 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 03:30 Marovoha Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 03:30 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 03:30 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 03:30 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:00 Baly Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:00 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 00:15 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:30 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:30 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:15 Ambolomailaka Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:15 Antseranambe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:15 Belalanda Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 05:15 Lunga Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 05:15 Ali Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 05:15 Injaca Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 05:15 Calajulo Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 05:15 Lumbo Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 05:15 Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 05:15 Mocambique Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:15 Tulear Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 05:00 La Ferme Mauritius  0.1
09 Feb 2020 05:00 Port Mathurin Mauritius  0.1
09 Feb 2020 03:00 Antsisikala Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 03:00 Andranovondronina Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 03:00 Lotsohina Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 03:00 Betsimiranja Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 03:00 Ambatonjanahary Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 03:00 Ambinanililabe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 03:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 03:00 Amoronjia-Orangea Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:15 Ankilibe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:15 Saint Augustin Madagascar  0.1