Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,
06 Feb 2020 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (06 Feb 19:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 79 km/h 0.3 m 449 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 83 km/h 0.5 m 947 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

83 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 04 Feb 2020 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Feb 2020 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 06 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Feb 2020 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMadagascar3,276 
50-100 mmMadagascar58,050 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 00:00 245 -
- - - - - Seychelles
Blue 2 04 Feb 2020 12:00 494 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Feb 2020 00:00 389 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 292 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 06 Feb 2020 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 06 Feb 2020 12:00 1161 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Andrangazaha, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 06 Feb 2020 19:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Manompana Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Vatobe Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Tanambe Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 13:15 Voloina Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 13:15 Manambia Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 13:15 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 13:15 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 13:15 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 13:15 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Manehoko Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 15:30 Manakalana Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 15:30 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 15:30 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 15:30 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 21:30 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 13:15 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 17:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:30 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:30 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:30 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:30 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:30 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:30 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:45 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 15:30 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 17:45 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 19:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 15:45 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 19:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 19:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 19:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 17:30 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 17:30 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 17:30 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Antananabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 22:00 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 22:00 Fararano Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 22:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 22:00 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 22:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 22:00 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 22:00 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 17:30 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 16:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 17:30 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 15:45 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 15:45 Fenerive Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 15:45 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 15:45 Mahambo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 15:45 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:45 Andranira Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:45 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:45 Mandrorohabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:45 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:45 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Antsisikala Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Antsahalalina Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Andranovondronina Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Betsimiranja Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Ambinanililabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Antseranana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Andasoa Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Amoronjia-Orangea Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:45 Antotoro Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:45 Ampohana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 18:30 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 18:30 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 17:45 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 17:45 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Metuge Mozambique  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Mussange Mozambique  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Acache Mozambique  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Messequero Mozambique  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Atolo Mozambique  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Murrebue Mozambique  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Luguni Mozambique  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Tari Mozambique  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Ambariomena Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Antsahabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 12:45 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 15:45 Behavoa Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 15:45 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 15:45 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Maromandia Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 15:30 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 15:30 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:45 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:45 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:45 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:45 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:45 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 17:30 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 17:30 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 17:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 17:30 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 18:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:15 Mangaoka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:15 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:15 Andohonko Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:15 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 13:30 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 13:30 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Ankilahila Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Dzamandzar Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 13:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:45 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:45 Ambazoa Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:45 Ankazomanitsy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:45 Beaniky Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:30 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:30 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:30 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:30 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:30 Onara Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:30 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:00 Ampondrahazo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 12:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:45 Talaky Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:45 Iambaro Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 13:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 17:45 Bevoalavo Est Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 15:45 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Boala Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:45 Mtwara Tanzania  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:45 Msangamkuu Tanzania  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:45 Msimbati Tanzania  0.1
06 Feb 2020 17:30 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 17:30 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:00 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:00 Tsinjorano Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Vila de Mocimboa da Praia Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Libambai Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Meronvi Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Quissengue Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 18:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Baly Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Ampasimena Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 15:45 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 15:45 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 16:15 Savana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 16:15 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 16:15 Tataho Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 16:30 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 16:30 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 16:30 Taratasy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 15:45 Ampalaza Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:45 Esanta Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 14:00 Madimba Tanzania  0.1
06 Feb 2020 14:00 Assane Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 14:00 Mwambo Tanzania  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:45 Ankilihago Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 13:00 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 13:00 Metula Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 13:00 Momade Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 13:00 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Ambalihabe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Ambodizaotra Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 15:15 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:00 Bawala Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:00 Olumbe Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:00 Andringahely Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:00 Ampisikanana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Miquindane Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Lurio Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Ombauine Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 14:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 14:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 14:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Palma Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 22:45 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Matahibory Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:15 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:15 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:15 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:15 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:00 Ankomany Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:00 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:00 Mariarano Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:00 Berafia Madagascar  0.1
07 Feb 2020 00:00 Antavy Atsimo Madagascar  0.1
07 Feb 2020 00:00 Ampary Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Marere Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Lucete Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Quiterajo Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Pangome Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Arimba Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 21:00 Tavari Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:15 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Madirobe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Anompaka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 18:45 Ampataka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 18:45 Amboboka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 18:45 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 18:45 Tsivala Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Tamatave Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 23:45 Elanja Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 22:45 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 22:45 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
07 Feb 2020 00:00 Point Marianne British Indian Ocean Territory  0.1
07 Feb 2020 00:00 East Point Plantation British Indian Ocean Territory  0.1
06 Feb 2020 15:30 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 15:30 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 19:30 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:15 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
07 Feb 2020 00:00 Ambalanosy Madagascar  0.1