Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,
10 Feb 2020 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (10 Feb 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 65 km/h 0.3 m 150 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 83 km/h 0.5 m 947 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

83 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 10 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 04 Feb 2020 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Feb 2020 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 06 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Feb 2020 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 07 Feb 2020 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 07 Feb 2020 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 08 Feb 2020 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 09 Feb 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 09 Feb 2020 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 10 Feb 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 10 Feb 2020 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Reunion912
+
Madagascar93 
Reunion819 
50-100 mmMadagascar, Reunion775,373
+
Madagascar439,077 
Reunion336,296 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 00:00 245 -
- - - - - Seychelles
Blue 2 04 Feb 2020 12:00 494 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Feb 2020 00:00 389 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 292 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 06 Feb 2020 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 06 Feb 2020 12:00 449 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 07 Feb 2020 00:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 07 Feb 2020 12:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Feb 2020 00:00 310 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 08 Feb 2020 12:00 472 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 09 Feb 2020 00:00 278 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 09 Feb 2020 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 10 Feb 2020 00:00 387 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 10 Feb 2020 12:00 510 Few people
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Ampanakana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Feb 2020 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Feb 2020 23:00 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.3
10 Feb 2020 23:00 Fararano Madagascar  0.3
10 Feb 2020 23:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.3
10 Feb 2020 23:00 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.3
10 Feb 2020 23:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.3
10 Feb 2020 23:00 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.3
10 Feb 2020 23:00 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.3
10 Feb 2020 13:45 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 13:45 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 13:45 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 13:45 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 13:45 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 13:45 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 13:45 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 19:45 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 19:45 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 18:45 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 18:45 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 18:45 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 18:45 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 18:45 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 18:45 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 18:45 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 18:45 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 18:45 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 19:30 Behavoa Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 19:30 Befamata Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 19:30 Zavo Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 18:45 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 20:45 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 20:45 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:15 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 18:45 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 21:45 Metuge Mozambique  0.2
10 Feb 2020 21:45 Mussange Mozambique  0.2
10 Feb 2020 21:45 Acache Mozambique  0.2
10 Feb 2020 21:45 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.2
10 Feb 2020 21:45 Messequero Mozambique  0.2
10 Feb 2020 21:45 Atolo Mozambique  0.2
10 Feb 2020 21:45 Murrebue Mozambique  0.2
10 Feb 2020 21:45 Luguni Mozambique  0.2
10 Feb 2020 21:45 Tari Mozambique  0.2
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Antananabe Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 19:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 19:30 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 19:30 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 21:45 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 21:45 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 19:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 19:15 Lavanono Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 18:45 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 18:45 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 19:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 19:30 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 19:15 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:30 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 22:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2020 14:15 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 19:45 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 19:15 Bevoalavo Est Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Bevoay Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Maromandia Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:15 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 14:45 La Ferme Mauritius  0.1
10 Feb 2020 14:45 Port Mathurin Mauritius  0.1
10 Feb 2020 19:15 Ampalaza Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:45 Meronvi Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:45 Quissengue Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:45 Olumbe Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 19:45 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:30 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 18:45 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 18:45 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:45 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:30 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:30 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:30 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:15 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:15 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:15 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:45 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:45 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Ambariomena Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Antsahabe Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:30 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:30 Metula Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:45 Vila de Mocimboa da Praia Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:45 Libambai Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:30 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:30 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:30 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 21:30 Palma Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 21:30 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 21:30 Boala Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 21:30 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 21:30 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:00 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:00 Marovoha Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:45 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:45 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:45 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:15 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:15 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:15 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:15 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 21:45 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:30 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:30 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:30 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:30 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:30 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:30 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:30 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:15 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:15 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:15 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:15 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:30 Bawala Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:15 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:30 Saint-Antoine Mauritius  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:30 Riviere du Rempart Mauritius  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:30 Momade Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:30 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Tsinjorano Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:15 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:00 Ampasimena Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 19:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 19:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 19:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 19:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:15 Lucete Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:15 Ambalihabe Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:15 Ampohana Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:15 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:15 Dzamandzar Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:30 Mangaoka Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:30 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:30 Andohonko Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:30 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 19:15 Ambalanosy Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:15 Marere Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:15 Quiterajo Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2020 21:45 Antotoro Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 21:45 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 21:45 Mandrorohabe Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 21:45 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 21:30 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:00 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 19:15 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 19:15 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:45 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 23:30 Ambodizaotra Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:45 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 22:45 Berafia Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 21:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 19:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 19:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:30 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:30 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 20:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 19:15 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 21:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 21:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2020 21:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1