Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,
06 Feb 2020 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (06 Feb 02:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 79 km/h 0.3 m 215 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 83 km/h 0.5 m 947 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

83 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 04 Feb 2020 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Feb 2020 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 06 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMadagascar1,317 
50-100 mmComoros, Madagascar55,277
+
Comoros7,544 
Madagascar47,733 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 00:00 245 -
- - - - - Seychelles
Blue 2 04 Feb 2020 12:00 494 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Feb 2020 00:00 389 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 292 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 06 Feb 2020 00:00 1343 1 thousand
- - - - Comoros, Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Bevatry, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 06 Feb 2020 02:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Feb 2020 02:15 Bevatry Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 02:15 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2020 07:15 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 07:15 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 07:15 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 07:15 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 07:15 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 07:15 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:15 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 01:30 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 01:30 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 01:30 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 01:30 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 01:30 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 01:30 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 10:15 Antsisikala Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 10:15 Antsahalalina Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 10:15 Andranovondronina Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 10:15 Betsimiranja Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 10:15 Ambinanililabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 10:15 Antseranana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 10:15 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 10:15 Andasoa Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 10:15 Amoronjia-Orangea Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 10:15 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 07:30 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 07:30 Fenerive Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 07:30 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 07:30 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 07:30 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 07:30 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:45 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 11:15 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 11:15 Fararano Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 11:15 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 11:15 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 11:15 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 11:15 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 11:15 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Mangaoka Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Andohonko Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 01:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 01:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:00 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:00 Androlavy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:45 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:45 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 01:30 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:45 Marofototra Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:45 Voalavo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:15 Antananabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:15 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:15 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:15 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:15 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:15 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:15 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:15 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:15 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:15 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 01:45 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:45 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 03:15 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 03:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 03:15 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:00 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 02:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 01:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 00:45 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2020 01:45 Palma Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 01:45 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 01:45 Boala Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 01:45 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 01:45 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 02:30 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 08:15 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 08:15 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 08:15 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 08:15 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 08:15 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 08:15 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:30 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:30 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:30 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Metuge Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Mussange Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Acache Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Messequero Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Atolo Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Luguni Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Tari Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 07:15 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 07:15 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 00:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Anompaka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 02:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 02:45 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:30 Marere Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:30 Lucete Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:30 Quiterajo Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 07:30 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 07:30 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 02:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 02:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 02:30 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 02:30 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 00:15 Bawala Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 00:15 Olumbe Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 00:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 01:45 Baly Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 02:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 01:45 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 01:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 01:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Meronvi Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:45 Quissengue Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 00:45 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 00:45 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 00:45 Mandrorohabe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 00:45 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 00:45 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 07:00 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 07:00 Taratasy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 07:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 07:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 04:15 Behavoa Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 04:15 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 07:45 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:15 Madimba Tanzania  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:15 Assane Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:15 Mwambo Tanzania  0.1
06 Feb 2020 11:15 Msimbati Tanzania  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 00:45 Antotoro Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 00:45 Ampohana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 06:30 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 06:30 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 06:30 Savana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 00:30 Ampondrahazo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 07:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 07:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 07:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1