Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,
04 Feb 2020 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (04 Feb 06:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 86 km/h 0.3 m 245 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 83 km/h 0.5 m 947 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

83 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 04 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMadagascar7,442 
50-100 mmSeychelles, Comoros, Madagascar, Reunion123,835
+
Seychelles306 
Comoros6,569 
Madagascar116,938 
Reunion22 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 00:00 627 7 thousand
- - - - Seychelles, Comoros, Madagascar, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Andrangazaha, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 04 Feb 2020 06:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
04 Feb 2020 06:30 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.3
04 Feb 2020 06:30 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.3
04 Feb 2020 06:30 Manompana Madagascar  0.3
04 Feb 2020 06:30 Vatobe Madagascar  0.3
04 Feb 2020 06:30 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.3
04 Feb 2020 06:30 Tanambe Madagascar  0.3
04 Feb 2020 07:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 03:45 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 03:45 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 03:45 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 03:45 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 03:45 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 03:45 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Onara Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 04:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 03:45 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 03:45 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Appontement Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:45 Ampalaza Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:45 Bevoalavo Est Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 10:15 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 10:15 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 10:15 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 10:15 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Mandrorohabe Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 10:45 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 10:45 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 08:45 Behavoa Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Antotoro Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Ampohana Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 08:15 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 08:15 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:30 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:30 Tsinjorano Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:30 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 08:45 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:30 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 09:30 Faux-Cap Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 09:30 Antavy Atsimo Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 09:30 Ampary Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 09:30 Talaky Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 08:30 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:45 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:45 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:45 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:45 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:45 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:45 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:45 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 08:30 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 08:30 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Metula Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:45 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:45 Baly Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:45 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:45 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 08:30 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Marovoha Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Mipande Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Foque Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Ibo Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:00 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:45 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:00 Momade Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:00 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 09:45 Ankaratravitra Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 10:15 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 10:15 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 10:15 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:00 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:00 Berafia Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 12:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 12:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Ankilahila Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Matahibory Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 05:15 Meronvi Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 05:15 Quissengue Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 05:15 Olumbe Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 09:30 Ambalanosy Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:15 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 08:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 09:30 Iambaro Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 09:30 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Ampasimena Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:15 Dzamandzar Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 05:30 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 10:30 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 10:30 Maniroka Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 10:30 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 10:30 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 10:30 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 05:00 Marere Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 05:00 Lucete Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 05:00 Quiterajo Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 05:45 Vila de Mocimboa da Praia Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 05:45 Libambai Mozambique  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 07:30 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 11:00 La Ferme Mauritius  0.1
04 Feb 2020 11:00 Port Mathurin Mauritius  0.1
04 Feb 2020 05:15 Ambalihabe Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 05:15 Ambodizaotra Madagascar  0.1
04 Feb 2020 06:45 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1