Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,
09 Feb 2020 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (09 Feb 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 68 km/h 0.3 m 155 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 83 km/h 0.5 m 947 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

83 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 04 Feb 2020 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Feb 2020 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 06 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Feb 2020 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 07 Feb 2020 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 07 Feb 2020 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 08 Feb 2020 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 09 Feb 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 09 Feb 2020 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmReunion2,930 
50-100 mmMadagascar, Reunion359,189
+
Madagascar33,858 
Reunion325,331 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 00:00 245 -
- - - - - Seychelles
Blue 2 04 Feb 2020 12:00 494 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Feb 2020 00:00 389 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 292 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 06 Feb 2020 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 06 Feb 2020 12:00 449 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 07 Feb 2020 00:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 07 Feb 2020 12:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Feb 2020 00:00 310 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 08 Feb 2020 12:00 472 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 09 Feb 2020 00:00 278 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 09 Feb 2020 12:00 464 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Ampanakana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Feb 2020 20:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Feb 2020 20:00 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 20:00 Fararano Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 20:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 20:00 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 20:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 20:00 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 20:00 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.3
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 16:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 16:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 16:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 16:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 17:45 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 17:45 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 17:45 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 17:45 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 17:45 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 17:45 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 15:30 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 15:30 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 17:30 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 22:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 22:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 15:45 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 16:15 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 16:15 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 16:15 Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 16:15 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 16:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 16:15 Mananara Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 18:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 15:45 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:45 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:45 Metula Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 15:15 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 15:15 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 15:15 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 15:15 Behavoa Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:00 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:00 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:15 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:15 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:15 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:15 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:15 Vila de Mocimboa da Praia Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:15 Libambai Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:15 Meronvi Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:15 Quissengue Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 15:45 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 14:15 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:30 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:30 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:30 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:30 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:45 Metuge Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:45 Mussange Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:45 Acache Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:45 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:45 Messequero Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:45 Atolo Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:45 Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:45 Luguni Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:45 Tari Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:15 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:45 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:45 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:00 Bawala Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:00 Olumbe Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:00 Boala Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:00 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:00 Palma Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:00 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:00 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Antsisikala Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Antsahalalina Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Andranovondronina Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Betsimiranja Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Ambinanililabe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Antseranana Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Andasoa Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Amoronjia-Orangea Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 17:30 Mangaoka Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 17:30 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 17:30 Andohonko Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 17:30 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Ambinany Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Antalaha Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:15 Berafia Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:15 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:15 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:15 Tsinjorano Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Bevoay Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Maromandia Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:30 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:15 Ambalihabe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:15 Ampohana Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:15 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:15 Dzamandzar Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:30 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:15 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:15 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 15:30 Bevoalavo Est Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:15 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 17:30 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 17:30 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 17:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 17:30 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Antotoro Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Mandrorohabe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:45 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Onara Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 15:15 Ampalaza Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 16:15 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:45 Madimba Tanzania  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:45 Assane Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:45 Mwambo Tanzania  0.1
09 Feb 2020 19:45 Msimbati Tanzania  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:30 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:30 Pangome Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:30 Arimba Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:30 Tavari Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:15 Marere Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:15 Lucete Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 20:15 Quiterajo Mozambique  0.1
09 Feb 2020 18:15 Baly Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 21:45 Lotsohina Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 21:45 Ambatonjanahary Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 17:30 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
09 Feb 2020 17:30 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1