Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
26 Feb 2023 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries South Africa, Botswana
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (26 Feb 07:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 90 km/h 0.2 m 129 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 205 km/h 0.7 m 1068 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Feb 2023 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormSouth Africa, Botswana16,161
+
South Africa16,118 
Botswana43 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Feb 2023 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Feb 2023 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2023 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Feb 2023 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 07 Feb 2023 12:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 07 Feb 2023 18:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 08 Feb 2023 00:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Feb 2023 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 08 Feb 2023 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 08 Feb 2023 18:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 09 Feb 2023 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 09 Feb 2023 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 09 Feb 2023 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 09 Feb 2023 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 10 Feb 2023 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 10 Feb 2023 06:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 10 Feb 2023 12:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 10 Feb 2023 18:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 11 Feb 2023 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 11 Feb 2023 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 11 Feb 2023 12:00 169 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 23 11 Feb 2023 18:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 12 Feb 2023 00:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 12 Feb 2023 06:00 - 1.1 million
Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, East Timor, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Australia, Botswana
GREEN 26 12 Feb 2023 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 12 Feb 2023 18:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 13 Feb 2023 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 13 Feb 2023 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 13 Feb 2023 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 31 13 Feb 2023 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 32 14 Feb 2023 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 33 14 Feb 2023 06:00 - 1.1 million
Tanzania, Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Australia, Namibia, Botswana
GREEN 34 14 Feb 2023 12:00 - 2.5 million
Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, East Timor, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Australia, Madagascar, Botswana
GREEN 35 14 Feb 2023 18:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 36 15 Feb 2023 00:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 37 15 Feb 2023 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 38 15 Feb 2023 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 39 15 Feb 2023 18:00 191 - - - - - - -
GREEN 40 16 Feb 2023 00:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 41 16 Feb 2023 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 42 16 Feb 2023 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 43 16 Feb 2023 18:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 44 17 Feb 2023 00:00 198 - - - - - - -
GREEN 45 17 Feb 2023 06:00 198 - - - - - - -
GREEN 46 17 Feb 2023 12:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 47 17 Feb 2023 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 48 18 Feb 2023 00:00 198 - - - - - - -
GREEN 49 18 Feb 2023 06:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 50 18 Feb 2023 12:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 51 18 Feb 2023 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 52 19 Feb 2023 00:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 53 19 Feb 2023 06:00 180 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 54 19 Feb 2023 12:00 194 -
- - - - - Mauritius
GREEN 55 19 Feb 2023 18:00 176 -
- - - - - Mauritius
GREEN 56 20 Feb 2023 00:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 57 20 Feb 2023 06:00 162 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Lesotho, South Africa
GREEN 58 20 Feb 2023 12:00 180 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion, Lesotho, South Africa
GREEN 59 20 Feb 2023 18:00 169 -
- - - - - Reunion
GREEN 60 21 Feb 2023 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 61 21 Feb 2023 06:00 166 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 62 21 Feb 2023 12:00 180 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 63 21 Feb 2023 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 64 22 Feb 2023 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 65 22 Feb 2023 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 66 22 Feb 2023 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 67 22 Feb 2023 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 68 23 Feb 2023 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 69 23 Feb 2023 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 70 23 Feb 2023 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 71 23 Feb 2023 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 72 24 Feb 2023 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 73 24 Feb 2023 06:00 133 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 74 24 Feb 2023 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 75 24 Feb 2023 18:00 130 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 76 25 Feb 2023 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 77 25 Feb 2023 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 78 25 Feb 2023 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 79 25 Feb 2023 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 80 26 Feb 2023 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 81 26 Feb 2023 06:00 108 -
- - - - - South Africa, Botswana
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Feb 2023 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMozambique189,220 
250-500 mmMozambique432,590 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, East Timor, Mozambique3,524,858
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo32,427 
Indonesia2,817,386 
Tanzania29,857 
East Timor48,038 
Mozambique597,148 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Indonesia, Burundi, Tanzania, East Timor, Zambia, Malawi, Christmas Island, Mozambique, Madagascar, Australia61,136,786
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo2,603,964 
Rwanda252,340 
Indonesia47,554,402 
Burundi482,780 
Tanzania738,020 
East Timor172,804 
Zambia898,296 
Malawi5,633,603 
Christmas Island2,306 
Mozambique2,696,879 
Madagascar100,370 
Australia1,018 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Feb 2023 06:00 195 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 2 06 Feb 2023 12:00 154 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 06 Feb 2023 18:00 190 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Feb 2023 06:00 232 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 07 Feb 2023 12:00 245 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Madagascar
Blue 7 07 Feb 2023 18:00 242 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 08 Feb 2023 00:00 157 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Feb 2023 06:00 307 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 08 Feb 2023 12:00 228 -
- - - - - Tanzania, Madagascar
Blue 11 08 Feb 2023 18:00 249 Few people
- - - - South Africa, Eswatini
Blue 12 09 Feb 2023 00:00 130 Few people
- - - - South Africa
Blue 13 09 Feb 2023 06:00 123 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 14 09 Feb 2023 12:00 209 -
- - - - - Botswana
Blue 15 09 Feb 2023 18:00 239 -
- - - - - Madagascar, South Africa
Blue 16 10 Feb 2023 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 10 Feb 2023 06:00 210 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 10 Feb 2023 12:00 141 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 10 Feb 2023 18:00 215 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe
Blue 20 11 Feb 2023 00:00 155 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 21 11 Feb 2023 06:00 151 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Eswatini, South Africa
Blue 22 11 Feb 2023 12:00 213 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Eswatini, South Africa
Blue 23 11 Feb 2023 18:00 266 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 24 12 Feb 2023 00:00 216 -
- - - - - Malawi
Blue 25 12 Feb 2023 06:00 204 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 26 12 Feb 2023 12:00 181 -
- - - - - Democratic Republic of the Congo
Blue 27 12 Feb 2023 18:00 256 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Zimbabwe
Blue 28 13 Feb 2023 00:00 128 Few people
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 29 13 Feb 2023 06:00 188 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 13 Feb 2023 12:00 204 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 13 Feb 2023 18:00 156 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 32 14 Feb 2023 00:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 33 14 Feb 2023 06:00 135 - - - - - - -
Blue 34 14 Feb 2023 12:00 147 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 35 14 Feb 2023 18:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 36 15 Feb 2023 00:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 37 15 Feb 2023 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 38 15 Feb 2023 12:00 196 -
- - - - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia
Blue 39 15 Feb 2023 18:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 40 16 Feb 2023 00:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 41 16 Feb 2023 06:00 150 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 42 16 Feb 2023 12:00 149 - - - - - - -
Blue 43 16 Feb 2023 18:00 121 -
- - - - - Botswana
Blue 44 17 Feb 2023 00:00 209 - - - - - - -
Blue 45 17 Feb 2023 06:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 46 17 Feb 2023 12:00 171 - - - - - - -
Blue 47 17 Feb 2023 18:00 167 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 48 18 Feb 2023 00:00 158 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 49 18 Feb 2023 06:00 128 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 50 18 Feb 2023 12:00 150 -
- - - - - Namibia, Botswana
Blue 51 18 Feb 2023 18:00 177 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe
Blue 52 19 Feb 2023 00:00 141 - - - - - - -
Blue 53 19 Feb 2023 06:00 129 - - - - - - -
Blue 54 19 Feb 2023 12:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 55 19 Feb 2023 18:00 125 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 56 20 Feb 2023 00:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 57 20 Feb 2023 06:00 143 - - - - - - -
Blue 58 20 Feb 2023 12:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 59 20 Feb 2023 18:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 60 21 Feb 2023 00:00 129 - - - - - - -
Blue 61 21 Feb 2023 06:00 192 - - - - - - -
Blue 62 21 Feb 2023 12:00 153 100 thousand
- - - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Madagascar, Australia
Blue 63 21 Feb 2023 18:00 115 120 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 64 22 Feb 2023 00:00 208 - - - - - - -
Blue 65 22 Feb 2023 06:00 142 4 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Australia, Mozambique
Blue 66 22 Feb 2023 12:00 135 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 67 22 Feb 2023 18:00 89 - - - - - - -
Blue 68 23 Feb 2023 00:00 118 -
- - - - - Democratic Republic of the Congo
Blue 69 23 Feb 2023 06:00 144 -
- - - - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia
Blue 70 23 Feb 2023 12:00 142 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Madagascar
Blue 71 23 Feb 2023 18:00 200 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 72 24 Feb 2023 00:00 90 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 73 24 Feb 2023 06:00 124 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 74 24 Feb 2023 12:00 190 40 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 75 24 Feb 2023 18:00 145 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 76 25 Feb 2023 00:00 90 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 77 25 Feb 2023 06:00 77 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Australia, Mozambique
Blue 78 25 Feb 2023 12:00 131 930 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 79 25 Feb 2023 18:00 195 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 80 26 Feb 2023 00:00 143 - - - - - - -
Blue 81 26 Feb 2023 06:00 763 4.1 million
- - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Indonesia, Burundi, Tanzania, East Timor, Zambia, Malawi, Christmas Island, Mozambique, Madagascar, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Feb 2023 06:00 UTC