Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
07 Feb 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 140 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (07 Feb 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 140 km/h 0.4 m 102 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 205 km/h 0.7 m 1068 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Feb 2023 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Feb 2023 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2023 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

1068 mm

Up to 2.5 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Indonesia, Zambia, Tanzania, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Eswatini2,498,974
+
Indonesia143,253 
Democratic Republic of the Congo2,863 
Tanzania13,256 
Zambia20,993 
Madagascar39,097 
Zimbabwe101 
South Africa1,716,765 
Other countries7,051 
Eswatini555,591 
50-100 mmKenya, Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, East Timor, Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho13,882,175
+
Kenya66,756 
Indonesia1,829,651 
Democratic Republic of the Congo584,517 
Tanzania679,040 
Zambia420,763 
East Timor16,631 
Mozambique1,083,219 
Madagascar758,904 
Malawi966,821 
Zimbabwe28,237 
South Africa5,749,492 
Botswana697 
Other countries250 
Eswatini600,294 
Lesotho1,096,895 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Feb 2023 06:00 195 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 2 06 Feb 2023 12:00 154 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 06 Feb 2023 18:00 190 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 526 2.5 million
- - - - Kenya, Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, East Timor, Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Botswana, Other countries, Eswatini, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC