Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for FREDDY-23 in Mozambique, Madagascar from 06 Feb 2023 06:00 UTC to 12 Mar 2023 00:00 UTC

12 Feb 2023 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	155 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (12 Feb 14:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	155 km/h	0.4 m	181 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	205 km/h	0.7 m	1068 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	54

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	06 Feb 2023 06:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	06 Feb 2023 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	06 Feb 2023 18:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	07 Feb 2023 00:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	07 Feb 2023 06:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	07 Feb 2023 12:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Feb 2023 18:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	08 Feb 2023 00:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	08 Feb 2023 06:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Feb 2023 12:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	08 Feb 2023 18:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	09 Feb 2023 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	09 Feb 2023 06:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	09 Feb 2023 12:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	09 Feb 2023 18:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	10 Feb 2023 00:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	10 Feb 2023 06:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	10 Feb 2023 12:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	10 Feb 2023 18:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	11 Feb 2023 00:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	11 Feb 2023 06:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	11 Feb 2023 12:00	169	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
23	11 Feb 2023 18:00	166	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	12 Feb 2023 00:00	180	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	12 Feb 2023 06:00	-	1.1 million							Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, East Timor, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Australia, Botswana
26	12 Feb 2023 12:00	155	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa	3,988,278	+
	Other countries	59,019
	Indonesia	3,390,857
	Zimbabwe	413,864
	Mozambique	677
	Botswana	78,444
	South Africa	45,415
50-100 mm	Indonesia, East Timor, Mauritius, Australia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Madagascar, Botswana, South Africa, Eswatini	12,521,199,483,099,800,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000	+
	Other countries	12,521,199,483,099,800,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
	Indonesia	11,284,272
	East Timor	125,696
	Mauritius	224
	Australia	82,332
	Zimbabwe	2,588,020
	Mozambique	1,126,873
	Madagascar	140
	Botswana	282,586
	South Africa	2,205,141
	Eswatini	03

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	06 Feb 2023 06:00	195	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
2	06 Feb 2023 12:00	154	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
3	06 Feb 2023 18:00	190	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
4	07 Feb 2023 00:00	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	07 Feb 2023 06:00	232	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
6	07 Feb 2023 12:00	245	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Madagascar
7	07 Feb 2023 18:00	242	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	08 Feb 2023 00:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	08 Feb 2023 06:00	307	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Feb 2023 12:00	228	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Madagascar
11	08 Feb 2023 18:00	249	Few people			-	-	-	-	South Africa, Eswatini
12	09 Feb 2023 00:00	130	Few people			-	-	-	-	South Africa
13	09 Feb 2023 06:00	123	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
14	09 Feb 2023 12:00	209	-		-	-	-	-	-	Botswana
15	09 Feb 2023 18:00	239	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar, South Africa
16	10 Feb 2023 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	10 Feb 2023 06:00	210	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	10 Feb 2023 12:00	141	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	10 Feb 2023 18:00	215	-		-	-	-	-	-	Zimbabwe
20	11 Feb 2023 00:00	155	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique
21	11 Feb 2023 06:00	151	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique, Eswatini, South Africa
22	11 Feb 2023 12:00	213	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Eswatini, South Africa
23	11 Feb 2023 18:00	266	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
24	12 Feb 2023 00:00	216	-		-	-	-	-	-	Malawi
25	12 Feb 2023 06:00	204	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
26	12 Feb 2023 12:00	784	4 million			-	-		-	Other countries, Indonesia, East Timor, Mauritius, Australia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Madagascar, Botswana, South Africa, Eswatini

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC

Impact

GDACS Score

Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Wind Impact Timeline

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Rain Impact Timeline

StormSurge

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations