Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
07 Feb 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 148 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (07 Feb 14:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 148 km/h 0.6 m 245 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 205 km/h 0.7 m 1068 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Feb 2023 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Feb 2023 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2023 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Feb 2023 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 07 Feb 2023 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

1068 mm

Up to 4.7 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmSouth Africa120,820 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Madagascar, Zambia, South Africa, Mozambique, Eswatini4,535,220
+
Indonesia821,216 
Mozambique41,365 
Madagascar20,240 
Zambia224,220 
South Africa2,440,940 
Eswatini987,236 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, East Timor, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zambia, Malawi, South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho28,409,138
+
Indonesia17,973,770 
Democratic Republic of the Congo56,388 
Tanzania1,087,131 
East Timor77,883 
Mozambique2,274,840 
Madagascar321,268 
Zambia480,193 
Malawi3,707 
South Africa5,130,233 
Eswatini295,392 
Lesotho708,327 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Feb 2023 06:00 195 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 2 06 Feb 2023 12:00 154 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 06 Feb 2023 18:00 190 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Feb 2023 06:00 232 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 07 Feb 2023 12:00 497 4.7 million
- - - Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, East Timor, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zambia, Malawi, South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC