Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
10 Feb 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Indonesia, Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 97 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (10 Feb 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 97 km/h 0.3 m 112 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 205 km/h 0.7 m 1068 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 1 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndonesia, Australia1,041
+
Indonesia599 
Australia442 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Feb 2023 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Feb 2023 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2023 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Feb 2023 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 07 Feb 2023 12:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 07 Feb 2023 18:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 08 Feb 2023 00:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Feb 2023 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 08 Feb 2023 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 08 Feb 2023 18:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 09 Feb 2023 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 09 Feb 2023 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 09 Feb 2023 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 09 Feb 2023 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 10 Feb 2023 00:00 148 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa19,498,407
+
Indonesia18,859,580 
Mozambique366,432 
Malawi70,865 
Zimbabwe201,165 
South Africa363 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, East Timor, Tanzania, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Mayotte, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho103,883,386
+
Indonesia91,030,276 
Democratic Republic of the Congo110,302 
East Timor47,363 
Tanzania3,616 
Mozambique4,237,770 
Malawi3,089,583 
Zambia10,343 
Mayotte5,878 
Madagascar243,491 
Zimbabwe1,554,050 
South Africa2,601,444 
Eswatini505,612 
Lesotho443,652 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Feb 2023 06:00 195 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 2 06 Feb 2023 12:00 154 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 06 Feb 2023 18:00 190 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Feb 2023 06:00 232 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 07 Feb 2023 12:00 245 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Madagascar
Blue 7 07 Feb 2023 18:00 242 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 08 Feb 2023 00:00 157 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Feb 2023 06:00 307 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 08 Feb 2023 12:00 228 -
- - - - - Tanzania, Madagascar
Blue 11 08 Feb 2023 18:00 249 Few people
- - - - South Africa, Eswatini
Blue 12 09 Feb 2023 00:00 130 Few people
- - - - South Africa
Blue 13 09 Feb 2023 06:00 123 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 14 09 Feb 2023 12:00 209 -
- - - - - Botswana
Blue 15 09 Feb 2023 18:00 239 -
- - - - - Madagascar, South Africa
Blue 16 10 Feb 2023 00:00 301 19.5 million
- - - - Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, East Timor, Tanzania, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Mayotte, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC