Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
08 Feb 2023 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 151 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (08 Feb 08:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 151 km/h 0.5 m 307 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 205 km/h 0.7 m 1068 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2023 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia04 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Feb 2023 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Feb 2023 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2023 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Feb 2023 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 07 Feb 2023 12:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 07 Feb 2023 18:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 08 Feb 2023 00:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Feb 2023 06:00 158 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

1068 mm

Up to 3.2 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2023 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmSouth Africa, Eswatini503,377
+
South Africa479,872 
Eswatini23,505 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Tanzania, East Timor, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Eswatini2,740,765
+
Indonesia236,192 
Tanzania49,018 
East Timor6,395 
Mozambique37,244 
Madagascar7,710 
Zimbabwe131,742 
South Africa1,531,917 
Eswatini740,544 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, East Timor, Mozambique, Zambia, Madagascar, Malawi, Australia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho56,615,222
+
Indonesia40,333,687 
Democratic Republic of the Congo3,754 
Tanzania1,187,033 
East Timor183,105 
Mozambique2,061,187 
Zambia9,109 
Madagascar301,346 
Malawi874,103 
Australia05 
Zimbabwe904,597 
South Africa9,992,286 
Eswatini490,013 
Lesotho274,990 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Feb 2023 06:00 195 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 2 06 Feb 2023 12:00 154 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 06 Feb 2023 18:00 190 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Feb 2023 06:00 232 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 07 Feb 2023 12:00 245 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Madagascar
Blue 7 07 Feb 2023 18:00 242 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 08 Feb 2023 00:00 157 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Feb 2023 06:00 457 3.2 million
- - - Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, East Timor, Mozambique, Zambia, Madagascar, Malawi, Australia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2023 06:00 UTC