Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CELIA-22
in Mexico
19 Jun 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CELIA-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (19 Jun 12:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 83 km/h 0.4 m 98 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 162 km/h 0.6 m 621 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

162 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico00
+

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 Jun 2022 18:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jun 2022 00:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jun 2022 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 17 Jun 2022 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 17 Jun 2022 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jun 2022 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jun 2022 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 18 Jun 2022 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 18 Jun 2022 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jun 2022 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 Jun 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 19 Jun 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama4,454,330
+
Mexico523,173 
Belize71,348 
Guatemala1,547,450 
Honduras42,622 
Nicaragua1,715,699 
Colombia76,993 
Costa Rica52,927 
Panama424,114 
50-100 mmMexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama30,649,603
+
Mexico11,874,493 
Belize203,997 
Guatemala5,556,006 
Honduras3,385,665 
Nicaragua3,934,064 
El Salvador1,183,886 
Costa Rica4,284,163 
Panama227,326 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 Jun 2022 18:00 158 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jun 2022 00:00 212 -
- - - - - Costa Rica
Blue 3 17 Jun 2022 06:00 243 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 17 Jun 2022 12:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 17 Jun 2022 18:00 172 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 18 Jun 2022 00:00 202 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 18 Jun 2022 06:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 18 Jun 2022 12:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 18 Jun 2022 18:00 161 -
- - - - - Costa Rica, Panama
Blue 10 19 Jun 2022 00:00 219 Few people
- - - - Mexico, Panama
Blue 11 19 Jun 2022 06:00 96 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 12 19 Jun 2022 12:00 260 4.5 million
- - - - Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC