Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CELIA-22
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 290411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 29.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.0N 121.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.06.2022 0 23.0N 121.8W 1007 24
1200UTC 29.06.2022 12 23.4N 123.7W 1010 21
0000UTC 30.06.2022 24 23.9N 125.2W 1012 21
1200UTC 30.06.2022 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 10.0N 87.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.07.2022 96 9.9N 88.5W 1006 28
1200UTC 03.07.2022 108 10.1N 91.2W 1007 31
0000UTC 04.07.2022 120 10.0N 95.1W 1006 30
1200UTC 04.07.2022 132 10.5N 98.5W 1006 31
0000UTC 05.07.2022 144 11.1N 101.9W 1004 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290411

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 290411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.0N 121.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.06.2022 23.0N 121.8W WEAK
12UTC 29.06.2022 23.4N 123.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.06.2022 23.9N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 10.0N 87.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.07.2022 9.9N 88.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.07.2022 10.1N 91.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.07.2022 10.0N 95.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2022 10.5N 98.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2022 11.1N 101.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290411

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 282200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 049//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 049
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 22.4N 120.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 120.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 23.3N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 24.0N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.5N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 24.8N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
282200Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 121.5W.
28JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
650 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z
IS 11 FEET.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 282031
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Celia Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Organized deep convection associated with Celia ceased entirely
earlier today and the cyclone is now a remnant low. Therefore, this
is the last advisory. A partial ASCAT pass near 1800 UTC indicated
winds of 25-30 kt, so the advisory intensity is set at 30 kt. Celia
should gradually weaken as it spins down over cold water during the
next couple of days, and all of the dynamical guidance indicates it
will dissipate by late Thursday or early Friday. The cyclone is
moving west-northwestward near 9 kt, and should continue on that
general heading at a slightly slower forward speed until it
dissipates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 22.6N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 29/0600Z 23.3N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1800Z 24.0N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0600Z 24.5N 125.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1800Z 24.8N 126.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 282030
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Celia Advisory Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022

...ADVISORIES CONCLUDE ON CELIA NOW THAT IT IS A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 121.4W
ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Celia
was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 121.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 10
mph (17 km/h). Celia is forecast to continue west-northwestward
with gradually decreasing forward speed for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected during the next day or two. Celia is
expected to dissipate by late Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 282030
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
2100 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 121.4W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 121.4W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 120.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.3N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.0N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.5N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.8N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 121.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 281600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 048//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 22.1N 120.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 120.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 23.0N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.7N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.2N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 24.6N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
281600Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 120.6W.
28JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
654 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282200Z, 290400Z, 291000Z AND 291600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 281448
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
800 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022

The slow but steady decay of Celia has continued this morning. The
coldest cloud tops near the center of Celia have warmed to around
-40 deg C, a sign that it is no longer producing organized deep
convection. The depression is moving over water colder than 22 deg
C, so further decay is inevitable. It is likely that Celia will
become a post-tropical remnant low later today.

The estimated intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. Weakening
is likely during the next few days while Celia is steered
west-northwestward by a ridge extending southwest from the
southwestern United States. Various dynamical models indicate that
Celia will dissipate into a trough in about 2-3 days. No changes of
note were made to the NHC forecast, which is near the multi-model
consensus for both track and intensity.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 22.3N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 23.0N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1200Z 23.7N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0000Z 24.2N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z 24.6N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 281447
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
800 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022

...CELIA SLOWLY FADING AWAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 120.5W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 120.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h). Celia is expected to continue moving west-northwestward at a
slightly slower speed during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Celia is forecast to weaken and become a remnant low later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja
California peninsula through the day today. These conditions could
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 281447
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
1500 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 120.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 120.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 120.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.0N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.7N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.2N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.6N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 120.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 281000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 047//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 047
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 21.6N 119.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 119.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.5N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 23.2N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.8N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.2N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
281000Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 119.7W.
28JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
674 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281600Z, 282200Z, 290400Z AND 291000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 280840
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
200 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Celia's convective organization has been gradually decaying
overnight, and only a few small cells with cloud-top temperatures
below -60 C remain near the center. Subjective satellite estimates
are gradually decreasing, and the latest objective satellite
estimate from ADT is down to T2.0/30 kt. Assuming the wind-field has
spun-down further from the earlier scatterometer-derived wind
values, Celia is downgraded to a tropical depression with winds of
30 kt.

The cyclone's motion remains west-northwestward at 295/10 kt. The
low- to mid-level steering should keep Celia on this same general
track for the next several days. This track brings Celia over even
cooler waters into a more stable environment, and if more organized
convection does not soon return over Celia's vortex, it is likely to
become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The latest NHC track and
intensity forecast is little changed from the previous advisory,
though the system is now made a post-tropical remnant low in 12 h,
with the remnant low opening up into a trough by Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 21.8N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/0600Z 23.2N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1800Z 23.8N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0600Z 24.2N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 280838
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
200 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022

...CELIA EXPECTED TO CEASE BEING A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 119.6W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 119.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Celia is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low
later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja
California peninsula through the day today. These conditions could
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 280837
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0900 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 119.6W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 119.6W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 119.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.2N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.8N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.2N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 119.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 280400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 046//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 118.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 118.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.0N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.7N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.3N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.8N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
280400Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 119.0W.
28JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 699 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281000Z, 281600Z, 282200Z AND 290400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 271541
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022

This morning's satellite presentation consists of a single curved
band of deep convection in the south semi-circle of the cyclone.
Over the past several hours, this banding feature has decreased in
areal extent, and the cloud tops have warmed. A 0945 UTC AMSR2
microwave image revealed a vertically tilted structure with the
surface circulation displaced to the southeast of the mid-level
feature. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimate T numbers and a
recent SATCON member consensus have decreased. Therefore,
the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.

Celia should continue to spin down slowly during the next few days
while traversing decreasing sea surface temperatures. Inhibiting
thermodynamic environmental conditions are also expected to
contribute to its eventual dissipation toward the end of the
week. The NHC forecast is similar to last night's advisory and
closely resembles a blend of the IVCN and HCCA model intensity
predictions.

Celia's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
295/9 kt, and the system is embedded in the mid-level steering flow
generated by a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone.
Little change in motion and forward speed is expected until
dissipation. The official track forecast is not much different
from the previous one and lies in the middle of the model guidance
suite.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 20.8N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 21.4N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 22.2N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 23.6N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0000Z 24.1N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 271600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 044//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 20.6N 116.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 116.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.4N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.2N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.9N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.6N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.1N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
271600Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 117.1W.
27JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 727 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272200Z, 280400Z, 281000Z AND 281600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 271000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 20.2N 115.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 115.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.0N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.7N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.5N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 23.2N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.8N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
271000Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 116.2W.
27JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 755 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z AND 281000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 270853
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
200 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022

Celia appears to be deteriorating based on geostationary
satellite imagery. The storm continues to have small bursts of
convection on the western and southern portion of the circulation,
however any significant convection in the northern semicircle has
disappeared. A scatterometer pass over the inner core at 0430 UTC
showed only a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, mostly in
the northwest quadrant of the storm, with peak winds of only 35-40
kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt to
account for potential undersampling. Dynamic and statistical model
guidance all forecast Celia to gradually weaken as the system moves
over cooler waters and into a dry, stable environment. The
official forecast predicts the system will become a post-tropical
remnant low by 36 h, when it will likely be devoid of deep
convection, and dissipated within a few days.

The storm is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. A mid-level ridge
extending over the eastern North Pacific is expected to continue
steering Celia at this approximate speed and direction until the
system dissipates. The NHC forecast is quite similar to the
previous forecast advisory and remains within the tightly
clustered model guidance.

Despite not becoming a hurricane, Celia is now tied for the 5th
longest-lasting June tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 20.4N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 21.7N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 22.5N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1800Z 23.8N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 270233
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
800 PM PDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Unexpectedly, the satellite presentation of Celia has improved this
evening. A recent SSMIS microwave pass revealed a distinct mid-level
eye with a ring of deep convection surrounding the center of the
cyclone. Infrared cloud top temperatures near and over the center
have cooled during the past several hours, and overall the cloud
pattern appears more organized than earlier today. The initial
intensity is set at 50 kt based on a blend of the objective SATCON
estimate (46 kt) and consensus T3.5/55 kt Dvorak classifications
from SAB and TAFB.

Celia is still moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt, as it is
steered by a mid-level ridge that extends over the eastern North
Pacific. This general motion is expected to continue during the next
several days until Celia dissipates. The track guidance is still
tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast remains very
close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.

Despite the recent uptick in intensity, Celia is still expected to
weaken during the next few days as it moves over cooler waters and
into a drier, more stable environment. Model-simulated satellite
imagery suggests that Celia will struggle to maintain deep organized
convection by Tuesday, and so the NHC forecast still calls for the
cyclone to become post-tropical in 36 h. Then, the system will
continue weakening as it gradually spins down over sub-22 deg C
waters. By late Thursday, the remnant low is forecast to open into a
trough and dissipate.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 20.0N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 20.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 21.3N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 22.1N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1200Z 23.4N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z 23.9N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 270232
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
800 PM PDT Sun Jun 26 2022

...CELIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 115.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 115.0 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Celia is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone within the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of
west-central Mexico during the next couple of days. These
conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 270232
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0300 UTC MON JUN 27 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 115.0W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 115.0W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.6N 116.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.3N 118.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.1N 120.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.4N 124.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.9N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 115.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 262035
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022

The storm continues to exhibit a well-organized cloud pattern on
satellite imagery, with a low-level eye-like feature and well
defined spiral cloud lines. However, the associated convection is
not very deep and most of the heavier showers and thunderstorms are
confined to the southeastern portion of the circulation. A
scatterometer pass missed most of the system but did show that
tropical-storm-force winds extended out about 90 n mi over the
eastern semicircle. The intensity is held at 45 kt for this
advisory, in accord with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB.

Celia has continued to move west-northwestward, or 290/6 kt, but is
just slightly north of the previous track. A mid-level high
pressure ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should maintain
this direction of motion, with a little acceleration, for the next
few days. The official track forecast follows the corrected
dynamical model consensus, HCCA, very closely.

The cyclone is crossing the gradient of SST and moving over
progressively cooler waters. This, along with a drier and more
stable air mass should cause Celia to degenerate into a remnant low
pressure system within a couple of days. The official intensity
forecast is at or above the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 19.5N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 20.1N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 20.9N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 21.7N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1800Z 22.6N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0600Z 23.2N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 23.7N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 262035
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022

...CELIA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW BUT LIKELY TO BEGIN
WEAKENING SOON...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 114.0W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 114.0 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Celia is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone within the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of
west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 262034
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
2100 UTC SUN JUN 26 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 114.0W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 114.0W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 113.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.1N 115.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.9N 117.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.7N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.6N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.2N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.7N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 114.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 261610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.1N 42.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.06.2022 0 8.1N 42.1W 1012 26
0000UTC 27.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 113.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.06.2022 0 19.2N 113.2W 996 34
0000UTC 27.06.2022 12 19.7N 115.0W 997 34
1200UTC 27.06.2022 24 20.5N 116.5W 999 34
0000UTC 28.06.2022 36 21.6N 118.6W 1002 31
1200UTC 28.06.2022 48 22.4N 120.5W 1005 26
0000UTC 29.06.2022 60 23.4N 122.4W 1008 24
1200UTC 29.06.2022 72 24.2N 124.5W 1011 22
0000UTC 30.06.2022 84 24.4N 126.3W 1013 23
1200UTC 30.06.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 9.4N 55.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.06.2022 48 9.4N 55.5W 1011 30
0000UTC 29.06.2022 60 10.2N 59.6W 1011 32
1200UTC 29.06.2022 72 11.2N 63.3W 1011 34
0000UTC 30.06.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.9N 77.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2022 120 13.1N 79.0W 1006 32
0000UTC 02.07.2022 132 12.8N 82.5W 1005 28
1200UTC 02.07.2022 144 11.9N 85.5W 1006 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261610

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 261610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.1N 42.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.06.2022 8.1N 42.1W WEAK
00UTC 27.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 113.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.06.2022 19.2N 113.2W MODERATE
00UTC 27.06.2022 19.7N 115.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.06.2022 20.5N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.06.2022 21.6N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2022 22.4N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.06.2022 23.4N 122.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.06.2022 24.2N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.06.2022 24.4N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 9.4N 55.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.06.2022 9.4N 55.5W WEAK
00UTC 29.06.2022 10.2N 59.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.06.2022 11.2N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.9N 77.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.07.2022 13.1N 79.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.07.2022 12.8N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.07.2022 11.9N 85.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261610

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 261434
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022

This morning's satellite presentation shows very little change in
Celia's cloud pattern. However, the cloud tops associated with the
deep convection are beginning to warm. The latest AMSR2 microwave
revealed a symmetric cyclone with an eye-like feature in the
low-frequency band. Therefore, the initial intensity is
conservatively held at 45 kt and is supported by a blend of the
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.

Celia should gradually weaken while it moves into a stable and
dry surrounding atmosphere, and over cooler oceanic surface
temperatures. Accordingly, Celia is expected to degenerate into a
post-tropical cyclone on Monday and dissipate toward the end of the
week, and this scenario is in agreement with the latest statistical
and dynamical intensity guidance.

Celia's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
285/6 kt, just a little bit to the left of the previous advisory
motion. The forecast track philosophy remains the same. A
mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the eastern North Pacific
should steer the cyclone on a continued west-northwestward course
through the forecast period. The official NHC forecast is based on
the various tightly clustered consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 19.5N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 20.3N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 21.1N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 23.2N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 261433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022

...CELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 113.7W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 113.7 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next several
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast and Celia is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of
west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 261433
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
1500 UTC SUN JUN 26 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.7W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.7W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N 116.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.1N 118.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.2N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 113.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 261000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 112.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 112.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.7N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.2N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.0N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.7N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.4N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 23.1N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
261000Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 113.3W.
26JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261600Z, 262200Z, 270400Z AND 271000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 260838
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022

...CELIA GRADUALLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 113.1W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 113.1 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next several
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast and Celia is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of
west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 260400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 038//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 18.9N 112.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 112.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.4N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.9N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.4N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.0N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.7N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.3N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.0N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
260400Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 112.8W.
26JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 869 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 261000Z, 261600Z, 262200Z AND 270400Z.
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 260240
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022

While Celia continues to maintain a relatively symmetric convective
appearance on satellite imagery, the coldest convective cloud tops
are gradually warming as the storm slowly succumbs to cooler ocean
waters underneath. A blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates
still support an initial intensity of 50 kt, though I suspect this
remains generous and hopefully overnight scatterometer data can
provide additional assessment of the wind-field around the storm.
Sea-surface temperatures will continue gradually decreasing as the
system moves into an increasingly stable environment. Thus, gradual
weakening is expected to continue. The latest NHC forecast now
anticipates Celia will lose its remaining convection in about 48
hours, marking its transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The
intensity forecast shows a bit faster rate of weakening, largely
discounting the recent GFS solutions which unrealistically keep deep
central convection near the center over a very unfavorable
thermodynamic environment.

The center of Celia is moving west-northwestward at a bit faster
pace, or 290/8 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same, as
mid-level ridging should keep the cyclone on a west-northwestward
heading. A turn westward at the end of the storm's life is
anticipated as it becomes a shallow remnant low, steered primarily
by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is nearly
identical to the previous forecast, though now shows dissipation in
120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 19.1N 112.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 19.4N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 19.9N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 20.4N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 21.0N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 28/1200Z 21.7N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z 22.3N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z 23.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 260236
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022

...CELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 112.6W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 112.6 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next several
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Celia is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of
west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 260235
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0300 UTC SUN JUN 26 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 112.6W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 112.6W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.4N 113.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.9N 115.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.4N 117.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.0N 119.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.7N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.3N 124.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 23.0N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 112.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 252055
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Celia passed just south of Socorro Island this afternoon. Microwave
data and conventional satellite imagery indicate the inner-core
convection has become fragmented into small bands around the
low-level center. The deepest convection associated with the storm
is occurring in bands over 200 n mi east and southeast of the main
circulation. A blend of the subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and
TAFB supports an initial intensity of 50 kt, which could still be
generous based on the latest objective intensity aids and wind
observations from Socorro Island. Unfortunately, no recent ASCAT
data was available for Celia.

The center of Celia is moving west-northwestward, or 295/7 kt. The
track forecast reasoning has not changed, as a mid-level ridge to
the north of Celia should keep the cyclone moving to the
west-northwest for the next several days. As Celia becomes a weaker
and shallower system, it is forecast to turn westward and accelerate
a bit within the low-level flow by days 4-5. The track guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the latest NHC forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one with no major changes.

Celia is now centered north of the 26 deg C isotherm, and the latest
track forecast brings the system into an increasingly unfavorable
thermodynamic environment through early next week. Therefore,
gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Celia is
likely to lose its organized deep convection and become a
post-tropical low by Tuesday. Then, the remnant low is expected to
spin down over cooler waters within a drier, more stable
environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement
with the previous advisory and the various intensity consensus aids,
including IVCN and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 18.6N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.0N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.5N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 19.9N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 20.5N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 21.2N 120.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/1800Z 21.8N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z 22.6N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 252055
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022

...CELIA MOVING AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 111.6W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 111.6 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Celia is
likely to become a post-tropical remnant low by Monday night or
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. An automated Mexican navy weather station on
Socorro Island recently reported a wind gust of 40 mph (64 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of
west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 252054
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
2100 UTC SAT JUN 25 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 111.6W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 111.6W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 111.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.0N 112.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.9N 116.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.5N 118.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.2N 120.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.8N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.5N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.6N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 111.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 251600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 18.3N 110.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 110.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.8N 111.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.2N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.7N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.2N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.8N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.5N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.5N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.9N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 110.9W.
25JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 936 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 251611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 25.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.4N 35.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.06.2022 0 8.4N 35.5W 1012 25
0000UTC 26.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 110.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.06.2022 0 18.5N 110.6W 993 38
0000UTC 26.06.2022 12 18.9N 112.3W 993 42
1200UTC 26.06.2022 24 19.4N 113.9W 994 41
0000UTC 27.06.2022 36 19.9N 116.0W 996 40
1200UTC 27.06.2022 48 20.6N 118.1W 998 39
0000UTC 28.06.2022 60 21.1N 120.4W 1001 34
1200UTC 28.06.2022 72 21.9N 122.6W 1004 28
0000UTC 29.06.2022 84 22.7N 124.9W 1007 26
1200UTC 29.06.2022 96 23.3N 127.5W 1011 24
0000UTC 30.06.2022 108 23.2N 130.5W 1013 24
1200UTC 30.06.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251610

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 251611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.4N 35.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.06.2022 8.4N 35.5W WEAK
00UTC 26.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 110.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.06.2022 18.5N 110.6W MODERATE
00UTC 26.06.2022 18.9N 112.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2022 19.4N 113.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.06.2022 19.9N 116.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.06.2022 20.6N 118.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.06.2022 21.1N 120.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2022 21.9N 122.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.06.2022 22.7N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.06.2022 23.3N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.06.2022 23.2N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251610

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 251451 CCA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 36...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Corrected for missing central pressure statement

...CELIA'S CENTER APPROACHING SOCORRO ISLAND...
...GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 110.8W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 110.8 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed
is expected through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next several days,
and Celia is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low by Monday
night or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. An automated Mexican navy weather station on
Socorro Island recently reported a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of
west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 251439
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Celia's convective organization is slightly better this morning,
with a broken ring of cold cloud tops noted in infrared imagery.
However, a recent SSMIS microwave pass shows that the near-core
convection is limited to the southwest of the center. The storm has
extensive convective banding within the eastern and southeastern
parts of the circulation. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers remain
3.5 from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity remains 55 kt.

Celia took a temporary turn toward the northwest overnight, but the
motion appears to have settled out to west-northwestward, or 300/6
kt. Mid-level ridging to the north is expected to keep Celia on a
west-northwestward motion for the next 4 days or so, with a gradual
increase in forward speed. As a weaker, shallower system, the
remnant low should turn westward by day 5. The GFS is a little
slower than the other models, but otherwise the model guidance is
tightly packed. Therefore, no significant changes were made to the
previous forecast.

Even though deep-layer shear is now low, the thermodynamic
environment has kept the storm from strengthening over the past day
or so. Celia's center is now over 26 degrees Celsius water and
heading toward even colder waters, and therefore gradual weakening
is anticipated during the next few days. Celia is likely to cease
producing organized deep convection and thus become a post-tropical
low by day 3. The updated intensity forecast is similar to the
previous forecast and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 18.5N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 18.8N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 19.2N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 19.7N 115.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 20.8N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/1200Z 21.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z 22.9N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 251438
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022

...CELIA'S CENTER APPROACHING SOCORRO ISLAND...
...GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 110.8W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 110.8 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed
is expected through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next several days,
and Celia is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low by Monday
night or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. An automated Mexican navy weather station on
Socorro Island recently reported a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of
west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 251438
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
1500 UTC SAT JUN 25 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 110.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.8N 111.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.2N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.7N 115.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.8N 118.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 22.5N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.9N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 110.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 17.9N 109.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 109.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.4N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.9N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.4N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.0N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.6N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.1N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.0N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 22.5N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 110.3W.
25JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 972 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND 261000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 250842
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022

The convective organization of Celia has not improved over the
past several hours. While banding features are still present,
cloud top temperatures near the center are warming. Given
the mixed satellite signals, the initial intensity is
held at 55 kt and this could be generous.

Celia is now encountering more marginal sea surface temperatures
(SSTs), slightly below 26 C. It appears the system has run
out of time for further intensification. While the shear remains
low, the atmosphere is gradually becoming more stable and dry.
This should result in Celia weakening and later this weekend,
losing convection in 2 or 3 days. The official intensity
forecast is reduced from the previous one, on the lower end of the
guidance since Celia has been under-performing.

The system is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. This motion is
expected to continue for the next few days, with a gradual increase
in forward speed as the storm is steered by a building mid-level
ridge. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope and only minimal changes have been made from the previous
track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 18.0N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.4N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.9N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.4N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 20.0N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 20.6N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/0600Z 21.1N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 22.5N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 250842
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022

...CELIA EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING LATER THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 110.3W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 110.3 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued
west-northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed
is expected through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Celia is expected to gradually weaken for the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California
peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico today. These
conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 250842
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0900 UTC SAT JUN 25 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.3W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.3W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 109.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 112.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.4N 114.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.0N 116.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.6N 118.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.1N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 22.0N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 22.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 110.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 250409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 7.8N 33.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.06.2022 0 7.8N 33.3W 1013 21
1200UTC 25.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 109.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.06.2022 0 17.7N 109.0W 995 38
1200UTC 25.06.2022 12 18.6N 110.7W 996 36
0000UTC 26.06.2022 24 18.6N 112.5W 995 36
1200UTC 26.06.2022 36 19.2N 114.1W 996 38
0000UTC 27.06.2022 48 19.7N 116.0W 997 39
1200UTC 27.06.2022 60 20.3N 118.3W 999 37
0000UTC 28.06.2022 72 20.8N 120.9W 1001 33
1200UTC 28.06.2022 84 21.3N 123.5W 1004 28
0000UTC 29.06.2022 96 21.9N 126.1W 1008 26
1200UTC 29.06.2022 108 21.9N 129.6W 1011 26
0000UTC 30.06.2022 120 21.3N 133.1W 1012 23
1200UTC 30.06.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250409

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 250409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 7.8N 33.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.06.2022 7.8N 33.3W WEAK
12UTC 25.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 109.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.06.2022 17.7N 109.0W MODERATE
12UTC 25.06.2022 18.6N 110.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 18.6N 112.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2022 19.2N 114.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.06.2022 19.7N 116.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.06.2022 20.3N 118.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.06.2022 20.8N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2022 21.3N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.06.2022 21.9N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.06.2022 21.9N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.06.2022 21.3N 133.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250409

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 250400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 17.6N 109.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 109.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.2N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.7N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.1N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.7N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.2N 117.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.9N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.8N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 22.5N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
250400Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 109.7W.
25JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 999 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251000Z, 251600Z, 252200Z AND 260400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 250242
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Core convection, while waning somewhat over Celia this evening,
remains fairly well-organized, with obvious banding features
wrapping around the western semi-circle of the tropical cyclone.
Several microwave passes, including a GPM pass at 0042 UTC also
depict this organization, with an attempt at a banding-type
eye feature open to the southeast. The latest round of satellite
estimates are mostly unchanged from earlier today, but given the
previous lackluster scatterometer data, the initial intensity has
been held at 55 kt this advisory.

Celia continues to move to the west-northwest with a current motion
at 300/6 kt. The forward motion of the cyclone is expected to
gradually increase by early next week as northward mid-level ridging
strengthens and expands westward. Once again there are few changes
to the track forecast from the prior cycle, and the latest NHC
forecast is just a hint faster, blending the reliable consensus aids
TVCE and HCCA.

Per the latest SHIPS guidance, Celia is now over sub 26 C
sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). These SSTs are expected to remain
between 25-26 C over the next 36 hours as Celia passes over the cold
wake of Blas, which moved over this general location a week ago.
While vertical wind shear is expected to remain low (below 10 kt)
with sufficently high mid-level moisture, Celia's radial wind-field
has become diffuse on its eastern side, without a distinct radius of
maximum wind. This structural change is partially related to the
ongoing convection well away from Celia's core to the southeast,
associated with monsoonal flow over warmer SSTs. The GFS and SHIPS
guidance still insist on Celia becoming a hurricane, while the most
recent HWRF/HMON runs (which are atmosphere-ocean coupled) indicate
weakening. A compromise of these two possibilities is to indicate
only slight additional strengthening for Celia over the next 12-24
hours, with gradual weakening beginning thereafter. The latest NHC
intensity forecast lies between IVCN and HCCA guidance and no longer
makes Celia a hurricane. As the storm moves over increasing cool
SSTs, it is expected to gradually lose its convection, becoming a
remnant low by the end of the forecast period. This status could
occur sooner than forecast, as suggested by the ECMWF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.8N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 18.2N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 18.7N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 19.7N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 20.9N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 21.8N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 22.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 250238
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...CELIA STILL A 65 MPH TROPICAL STORM...
...RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO INTENSIFY FURTHER...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 109.6W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 109.6 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued
west-northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed
is expected through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible over the
next day or so, followed by gradual weakening beginning on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California
peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico on Saturday. These
conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 250237
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0300 UTC SAT JUN 25 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 109.6W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 109.6W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.2N 110.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.7N 112.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.7N 115.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.9N 119.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 21.8N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 22.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 109.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 108.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 108.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.6N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.1N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.6N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.1N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.6N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.2N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.3N 123.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.9N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
242200Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 109.0W.
24JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1046
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 242035
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Celia has the appearance of becoming better organized, with
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates of
T4.0 all suggesting it's at hurricane strength. However, two
recent scatterometer passes only showed winds as high as 35-40 kt,
so any strengthening of the wind field is apparently lagging the
improved convective structure. Because of this large discrepancy
in estimates, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The
scatterometer data also indicate that Celia is asymmetric, with no
tropical-storm-force winds on the west side.

Celia's speed has slowed further, and the initial motion estimate
is 285/5 kt. This is about the slowest Celia is expected to move,
and its forward speed is forecast to gradually increase over the
next five days as the ridge to the north strengthens and expands
westward. There are no significant changes to the track forecast
reasoning on this cycle, and the updated NHC track prediction is
basically an update of the morning forecast.

Celia still has a small window of time for the wind field to
strengthen and catch up to the satellite presentation, and the NHC
forecast continues to show it becoming a hurricane in the next 12
to 24 hours. This forecast closely follows the HCCA consensus aid.
However, cooler waters ahead of the storm are expected to induce
weakening after 36 hours, and Celia is likely to become
post-tropical by day 4 when it loses its deep convection.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 17.2N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.6N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 18.1N 111.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 18.6N 112.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 19.1N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 19.6N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 20.2N 118.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 21.3N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1800Z 21.9N 128.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 242034
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...CELIA HEADED TOWARD COOLER WATERS BUT COULD STILL BECOME A
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 108.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 108.9 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A continued
west-northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed
is expected through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Celia could become a
hurricane tonight or on Saturday. Gradual weakening is expected to
begin on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California
peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico today and Saturday.
These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 242033
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
2100 UTC FRI JUN 24 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.9W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.9W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.6N 109.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.1N 111.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.6N 112.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.1N 114.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.6N 116.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.2N 118.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 21.3N 123.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 21.9N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 108.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 241611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 24.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 4.7N 30.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.06.2022 0 4.7N 30.7W 1013 18
0000UTC 25.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 108.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.06.2022 0 17.1N 108.8W 997 33
0000UTC 25.06.2022 12 17.8N 109.7W 997 34
1200UTC 25.06.2022 24 18.3N 111.5W 998 34
0000UTC 26.06.2022 36 18.3N 113.5W 998 31
1200UTC 26.06.2022 48 18.7N 114.8W 998 33
0000UTC 27.06.2022 60 19.1N 117.1W 999 35
1200UTC 27.06.2022 72 19.6N 119.3W 1000 34
0000UTC 28.06.2022 84 20.0N 121.9W 1001 32
1200UTC 28.06.2022 96 20.6N 124.5W 1004 30
0000UTC 29.06.2022 108 21.1N 127.5W 1006 28
1200UTC 29.06.2022 120 21.1N 130.6W 1009 26
0000UTC 30.06.2022 132 21.1N 133.6W 1011 25
1200UTC 30.06.2022 144 20.5N 136.9W 1012 23


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 241611

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 241611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 4.7N 30.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.06.2022 4.7N 30.7W WEAK
00UTC 25.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 108.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.06.2022 17.1N 108.8W MODERATE
00UTC 25.06.2022 17.8N 109.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 18.3N 111.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 18.3N 113.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2022 18.7N 114.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.06.2022 19.1N 117.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.06.2022 19.6N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.06.2022 20.0N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2022 20.6N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.06.2022 21.1N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.06.2022 21.1N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.06.2022 21.1N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2022 20.5N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 241611

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 241600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 108.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 108.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.4N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.9N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.5N 111.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.1N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.6N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.2N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.5N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.4N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
241600Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 109.1W.
24JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1044
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 241439
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Little by little, Celia is becoming better organized. Deep-layer
shear has decreased markedly from a few days ago, but the cyclone
still appears to be in the process of mixing out some of the dry
air that got into the circulation. Subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates now range from 55 to 65 kt, therefore
Celia's estimated intensity is increased to 55 kt on this advisory.

Celia is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (290/7 kt) to the
south of a mid-level ridge that stretches across the southern
United States and northern Mexico. The ridge is not particularly
strong, however, and this pattern is likely to cause Celia to slow
down further to around 5 kt during the next 12-24 hours. After 24
hours, the ridge is expected to strengthen and expand westward,
causing Celia to gradually accelerate through day 5. The guidance
envelope is tightly packed, and the updated NHC track forecast is
unchanged from the 09z forecast.

Shear diagnoses from the SHIPS model indicate that deep-layer shear
is likely to be less than 10 kt during the entire 5-day forecast
period. However, the limiting factor to Celia's intensity will be
sea surface temperatures. Celia still has an opportunity to
strengthen further, possibly to a hurricane, during the next 24
hours or so before it begins to cross the tight SST gradient near
Socorro Island. Gradual weakening is forecast after 36 hours over
colder waters, and Celia is likely to lose its deep convection and
become post-tropical by day 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 17.1N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.4N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.9N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.5N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z 22.4N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 241439
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...CELIA STRONGER AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 109.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 109.0 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). Celia is
forecast to slow down later today and tonight but then gradually
accelerate on a west-northwestward course late Saturday into Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Celia
could become a hurricane tonight or on Saturday. Weakening is
expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California
peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico today and Saturday.
These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 241438
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
1500 UTC FRI JUN 24 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 109.0W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 109.0W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.4N 109.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.9N 110.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 111.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 122.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 22.4N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 241000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 16.9N 108.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 108.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.3N 109.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.7N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.2N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.8N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.4N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.0N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.3N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.0N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
241000Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 108.5W.
24JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1066
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z,
250400Z AND 251000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 240838
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that Celia is on a gradual
strengthening trend, with an area of convection near and east of
the center. The latest microwave data, a 0200 UTC F-17 pass, showed
a small inner core in the 91-GHz channel. The subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates range between 45 and 55 kt, and
the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt.

Wind shear over the storm is slowly decreasing, and Celia has a
short window in the next day or so where environmental conditions
are expected to be favorable for additional strengthening. Beyond
about 48 h, the system is expected to be over increasingly cooler
waters and encountering a drier airmass. These factors will
cause Celia to begin weakening and eventually transition to a
remnant by the end of the forecast period. The official intensity
forecast follows the overall model consensus and is quite similar
to the previous advisory.

Celia continues its west-northwestward trek at about 7 kt around a
mid-level ridge located over the southern United States. This
motion is expected to slightly slow over the next couple days
before increasing in speed at the end of the forecast period as
the ridge builds to its north. The NHC track forecast is a bit
faster than the previous advisory and lies close to track model
consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 17.0N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 17.3N 109.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.7N 110.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.2N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 18.8N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 19.4N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 20.0N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 21.3N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0600Z 22.0N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 240837
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...CELIA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 108.4W
ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 108.4 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Celia
could become a hurricane later today or tomorrow. The storm is
expected to begin weakening by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California
peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico today and Saturday.
These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 240837
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0900 UTC FRI JUN 24 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.4W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 60SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.4W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 108.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.3N 109.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.7N 110.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.2N 111.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.4N 114.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.0N 116.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 21.3N 120.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 22.0N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 108.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 240409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 24.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.1N 25.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.06.2022 0 8.1N 25.8W 1013 18
1200UTC 24.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 107.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.06.2022 0 16.5N 107.9W 997 36
1200UTC 24.06.2022 12 16.9N 109.3W 998 33
0000UTC 25.06.2022 24 17.0N 109.9W 997 32
1200UTC 25.06.2022 36 18.3N 110.9W 997 36
0000UTC 26.06.2022 48 18.5N 113.0W 998 33
1200UTC 26.06.2022 60 18.5N 114.6W 999 31
0000UTC 27.06.2022 72 18.9N 116.7W 999 30
1200UTC 27.06.2022 84 19.2N 118.4W 999 31
0000UTC 28.06.2022 96 20.3N 120.5W 1000 33
1200UTC 28.06.2022 108 21.3N 122.8W 1003 33
0000UTC 29.06.2022 120 22.1N 125.6W 1006 31
1200UTC 29.06.2022 132 22.5N 128.7W 1008 27
0000UTC 30.06.2022 144 22.8N 131.8W 1011 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 36.7N 67.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.06.2022 12 38.2N 66.1W 1008 34
0000UTC 25.06.2022 24 41.2N 64.1W 1010 29
1200UTC 25.06.2022 36 44.1N 62.9W 1013 28
0000UTC 26.06.2022 48 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240409

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 240409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.1N 25.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.06.2022 8.1N 25.8W WEAK
12UTC 24.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 107.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.06.2022 16.5N 107.9W MODERATE
12UTC 24.06.2022 16.9N 109.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.06.2022 17.0N 109.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 18.3N 110.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 18.5N 113.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2022 18.5N 114.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.06.2022 18.9N 116.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.06.2022 19.2N 118.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.06.2022 20.3N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2022 21.3N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.06.2022 22.1N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.06.2022 22.5N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.06.2022 22.8N 131.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 36.7N 67.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.06.2022 38.2N 66.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.06.2022 41.2N 64.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 44.1N 62.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240409

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 240400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 16.6N 107.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 107.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.0N 108.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.4N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.7N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.3N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.0N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.7N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.0N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.5N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
240400Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 107.6W.
24JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1105
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 240237
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Celia continues to become better organized, as a ragged central
dense overcast has developed and widespread outer convective bands
are forming in the southeastern semicircle. Unfortunately, no
microwave overpasses are available to show what the structure is
under the overcast. The various subjective and objective intensity
estimates have not yet responded to the improved cloud pattern, so
the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 45 kt.

Celia is now in an environment of light to moderate shear, and these
conditions are likely to persist through the forecast period.
However, the cyclone is running out of warm water over which to
strengthen. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the forecast
track decrease to about 26C in about 12 h, are in the 25-26C range
from 12-48 h, and then decrease below 25C after 60 h. Based on this
and the intensity guidance, Celia should strengthen for 24-36 h, and
the intensity forecast continues to show it becoming a hurricane
during this time. After 36 h, the cyclone is expected to slowly
weaken as it moves over the cooler water, eventually decaying to a
remnant low over 21C SSTs by 120 h. The new intensity forecast
follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance and shows lower
intensity than the previous forecast from 36-96 h.

The initial motion is now 295/8. A mid-level ridge over the
southern United States and northern Mexico is expected to build
westward to the north of Celia over the next few days, and this
should keep the cyclone moving generally west-northwestward with
some variation in forward speed. Near the end of the forecast
period, a more westward motion is forecast as the weakening cyclone
is steered more by low-level easterly flow. The guidance has
shifted a little north since the previous advisory, and the new
forecast track lies slightly north of the old track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 16.7N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.7N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 19.0N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 19.7N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 21.0N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 21.5N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 240236
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

...CELIA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 107.6W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 107.6 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in
forward speed during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Celia
could become a hurricane late Friday or Saturday. The storm is
expected to start weakening by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California
peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico on Friday and
Saturday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and
rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 240236
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0300 UTC FRI JUN 24 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 107.6W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 60SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 107.6W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.7N 110.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 113.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.7N 114.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 107.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 232200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 106.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 106.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.8N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.1N 109.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.4N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.9N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.6N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.3N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.5N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.1N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
232200Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 106.9W.
23JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1148
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240400Z,
241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 232034
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Celia finally looks like a non-sheared tropical storm. The
low-level center is now embedded beneath a burst of convection that
began earlier this morning, and convective banding is becoming more
pronounced. There's quite a large range of intensity estimates--
from 30 to 45 kt--but given the improved structure, the initial
intensity remains 45 kt at the top of that range. With its improved
structure, Celia should be able to take advantage of low deep-layer
shear and waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for strengthening
over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast still
shows Celia becoming a hurricane and most closely follows SHIPS,
COAMPS-TC, and HCCA at the higher end of the guidance. Gradual
weakening is anticipated after 48 hours as the cyclone moves over
cooler waters, and Celia is forecast to degenerate into a remnant
low by day 5.

Celia has turned back to the west-northwest (300 degrees) at a
slightly slower speed of 10 kt. Mid-tropospheric ridging across
the southern United States and northern Mexico is expected to
expand westward over the next few days, keeping Celia on a
west-northwestward course until lower-level winds turn the remnant
low to the west by day 5. The steering currents do weaken a bit,
however, and Celia could be moving around 5 kt in about 36 hours.
The track guidance has slowed down during the middle to latter part
of the forecast, and the updated NHC forecast is therefore also a
little slower than the morning forecast. There is no change to
Celia's predicted trajectory, however.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 16.4N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 16.8N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 17.1N 109.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 17.4N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 17.9N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 18.6N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 19.3N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 20.5N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 21.1N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 232033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

...CELIA TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 106.8W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 106.8 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward track at a slower forward speed is expected into
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Celia
could become a hurricane late Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California
peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico on Friday and
Saturday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and
rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 232033
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
2100 UTC THU JUN 23 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 106.8W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 106.8W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 106.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.1N 109.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.4N 110.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.9N 111.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.6N 112.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.3N 114.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 20.5N 118.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 21.1N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 106.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 231610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 23.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.06.2022 0 15.9N 105.9W 999 38
0000UTC 24.06.2022 12 16.7N 108.5W 998 33
1200UTC 24.06.2022 24 16.6N 109.9W 999 27
0000UTC 25.06.2022 36 16.6N 110.6W 999 31
1200UTC 25.06.2022 48 17.7N 111.3W 999 33
0000UTC 26.06.2022 60 18.3N 113.0W 999 31
1200UTC 26.06.2022 72 18.6N 114.4W 1000 29
0000UTC 27.06.2022 84 19.2N 116.3W 1001 30
1200UTC 27.06.2022 96 19.9N 118.4W 1001 33
0000UTC 28.06.2022 108 20.5N 120.9W 1002 32
1200UTC 28.06.2022 120 21.0N 123.6W 1005 29
0000UTC 29.06.2022 132 20.9N 126.5W 1007 26
1200UTC 29.06.2022 144 20.6N 129.8W 1010 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 34.7N 69.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.06.2022 12 36.3N 68.8W 1004 34
1200UTC 24.06.2022 24 37.8N 67.5W 1008 37
0000UTC 25.06.2022 36 39.5N 65.4W 1010 29
1200UTC 25.06.2022 48 42.0N 63.7W 1013 30
0000UTC 26.06.2022 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 231610

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 231610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.06.2022 15.9N 105.9W MODERATE
00UTC 24.06.2022 16.7N 108.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 16.6N 109.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.06.2022 16.6N 110.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 17.7N 111.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 18.3N 113.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2022 18.6N 114.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.06.2022 19.2N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.06.2022 19.9N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.06.2022 20.5N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2022 21.0N 123.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.06.2022 20.9N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.06.2022 20.6N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 34.7N 69.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.06.2022 36.3N 68.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.06.2022 37.8N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.06.2022 39.5N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 42.0N 63.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 231610

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 15.8N 105.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 105.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.6N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.0N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.3N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.8N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.5N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.1N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.5N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.4N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 106.2W.
23JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1191
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 231437
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Celia is a bit of a conundrum. The strong east-northeasterly shear
which was affecting the system over the past couple of days has
lessened and turned out of the north, but the cyclone may have
ingested so much dry air during that time that it's now struggling
to produce much convection near its center. That said, new
convection has recently been developing just to the east of the
center. The initial intensity is being generously held at 45 kt, at
the upper end of the estimate range, in the hopes that we'll get
some scatterometer data later today.

The storm's 12-hour motion is northwestward, or 315/11 kt, but
there are signs it may be turning back to the west-northwest.
There are no changes in the forecast track reasoning, with
mid-level high pressure over northern Mexico still expected to
drive Celia west-northwestward for the next 4 days or so. A
westward turn is expected by day 5 as a weaker Celia is steered by
lower-level winds. The biggest change this morning is that there
is much tighter spread among the guidance, with the HWRF no longer
a southern outlier as in previous days. Confidence in the track
forecast is therefore higher than it had been.

The big question for intensity is whether the dry air near the
core can be mixed out and allow deep convection to organize near
the center. The environment appears conducive for that to happen,
with shear expected to be generally low and SSTs to be 26 degrees
or higher for the next 2 days or so. The peak intensity in the NHC
forecast has been lowered slightly due to time over warm waters
being a limiting factor, but Celia still has the potential to
become a hurricane during the next couple of days. Much colder
waters and a more stable atmosphere should cause Celia to become
post-tropical by day 5.

The initial 12-foot seas radii have been adjusted and expanded
significantly over Celia's eastern semicircle by TAFB based on data
from a 0730 UTC Cryosat-2 pass.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 16.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.6N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 17.3N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 17.8N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 18.5N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 20.5N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 21.4N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 231437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

...CELIA HAS ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 106.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 106.0 West. Celia is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected later today, accompanied by a
decrease in forward speed on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Celia
could still become a hurricane by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California
peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico on Friday and
Saturday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and
rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 231436
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.0W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.6N 107.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.3N 109.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.8N 110.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 112.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 117.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.4N 122.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 106.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 15.1N 104.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 104.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.3N 106.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.9N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.2N 109.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.5N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.2N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.1N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.3N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.3N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
231000Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 105.3W.
23JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1254
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND
241000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 230836
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

The organization of Celia has deteriorated this morning. The
low-level center is completely exposed to the north of a
ragged-looking area of convection. This unexpected separation of
the low-level center, apparently due to the northerly shear, implies
that there has been no increase of intensity since yesterday. The
initial wind speed is held at 45 kt and given the current
appearance of the system, this may even be a generous intensity
estimate.

Celia has taken a northwestward jog over the past 6 to 12 hours.
This is potentially due to the sheared vortex structure. The storm
is expected to become more vertically coupled and resume a
west-northwestward track beginning later today. The longer-term
motion should be governed by the mid-level high pressure system and
associated ridge to the north and northeast of Celia. The new NHC
track forecast is shifted slightly northward on a account of the
recent more northward movement of the cyclone. This is in close
agreement with the model consensus.

The global dynamical models forecast some decrease in the
vertical wind shear, which should allow for gradual intensification
of the storm. However, global models do maintain a moderate
level of shear and this, along with cooler SSTs within the
next day or two, could limit strengthening. The official intensity
forecast is a little above most of the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 15.5N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 16.3N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 16.9N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 17.2N 109.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 17.5N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 18.2N 111.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 19.1N 113.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 20.3N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 21.3N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 230836
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

...CELIA STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 105.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 105.2 West. Celia is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a
west-northwestward motion is expected to resume later today and
continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Celia could become a hurricane by late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are increasing along portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the coast through
today. Swells could also reach southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula by Friday. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 230835
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0900 UTC THU JUN 23 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.2W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.2W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.3N 106.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.9N 108.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.2N 109.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.5N 110.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.2N 111.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.1N 113.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 117.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 21.3N 121.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 105.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 230410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 23.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 104.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.06.2022 0 13.9N 104.1W 1000 30
1200UTC 23.06.2022 12 15.8N 106.0W 999 36
0000UTC 24.06.2022 24 16.6N 108.7W 998 30
1200UTC 24.06.2022 36 16.7N 110.4W 1000 26
0000UTC 25.06.2022 48 16.4N 111.3W 999 28
1200UTC 25.06.2022 60 17.2N 111.6W 1000 31
0000UTC 26.06.2022 72 18.2N 113.3W 1000 32
1200UTC 26.06.2022 84 18.6N 114.7W 1000 29
0000UTC 27.06.2022 96 19.6N 116.5W 1001 29
1200UTC 27.06.2022 108 20.5N 118.6W 1002 32
0000UTC 28.06.2022 120 21.0N 121.3W 1004 29
1200UTC 28.06.2022 132 21.5N 123.8W 1006 27
0000UTC 29.06.2022 144 21.5N 126.8W 1008 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 34.1N 72.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.06.2022 12 34.1N 72.8W 1005 34
0000UTC 24.06.2022 24 36.0N 69.6W 1001 36
1200UTC 24.06.2022 36 36.9N 68.4W 1007 33
0000UTC 25.06.2022 48 38.7N 66.1W 1010 29
1200UTC 25.06.2022 60 41.0N 64.0W 1012 30
0000UTC 26.06.2022 72 42.9N 62.5W 1015 25
1200UTC 26.06.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 31.6N 73.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.06.2022 36 31.6N 73.4W 1011 26
0000UTC 25.06.2022 48 31.4N 72.2W 1012 22
1200UTC 25.06.2022 60 31.4N 72.3W 1016 18
0000UTC 26.06.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 230410

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 230410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 104.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.06.2022 13.9N 104.1W MODERATE
12UTC 23.06.2022 15.8N 106.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.06.2022 16.6N 108.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 16.7N 110.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.06.2022 16.4N 111.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 17.2N 111.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 18.2N 113.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2022 18.6N 114.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.06.2022 19.6N 116.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.06.2022 20.5N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.06.2022 21.0N 121.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2022 21.5N 123.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.06.2022 21.5N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 34.1N 72.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.06.2022 34.1N 72.8W WEAK
00UTC 24.06.2022 36.0N 69.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 36.9N 68.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.06.2022 38.7N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 41.0N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 42.9N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 31.6N 73.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.06.2022 31.6N 73.4W WEAK
00UTC 25.06.2022 31.4N 72.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 31.4N 72.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 230410

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 230400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 13.9N 104.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 104.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 14.9N 105.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.7N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.2N 108.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.8N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.4N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.1N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.5N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.5N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230400Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 104.6W.
23JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1333
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 230239
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Celia has changed little in organization since the last advisory,
with the low-level center exposed just to the northeast of the main
convective area by the effects of 15-20 kt of northeasterly shear.
Various satellite intensity intensity estimates are in the 40-55 kt
range, and since there are no significant changes in these since
the last advisory the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

The center has turned to the right during the last several hours,
and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/6. This
northwestward jog is expected to be relatively short-lived, and
Celia is expected to resume a west-northwestward track during the
next 12-24 h on the south side of a large mid- to upper-level
ridge, with the general motion continuing for the remainder f the
forecast period. The new forecast track is similar to the previous
forecast, although it has a slightly more northward motion than the
previous forecast during the first 24-36 h. The new forecast track
is also close to the various consensus models.

The shear is forecast to decrease during the next 12-18 h, and with
Celia remaining over warm water this should allow intensification
to a hurricane in about 36 h. The cyclone should peak in intensity
between 48-60 h, then weaken as it moves over decreasing sea
surface temperatures after that time. The new intensity forecast
is unchanged from the previous forecast, and the forecast peak
intensity of 75 kt is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 14.2N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 14.9N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 15.7N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 16.2N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 16.8N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 17.4N 110.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 18.1N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 19.5N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 20.5N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 230238
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...CELIA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 104.4W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 104.4 West. Celia is now
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-
northwestward motion is expected to resume on Thursday, with that
general motion continuing for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected, and Celia could become a hurricane
Thursday night or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are increasing along portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the coast through
Thursday. Swells could also reach southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula by Friday. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 230237
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0300 UTC THU JUN 23 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.4W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.4W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 104.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.9N 105.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.7N 107.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.2N 108.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.4N 110.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.1N 112.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 20.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 104.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 103.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 103.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.4N 105.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.4N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.0N 108.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.5N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.2N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.0N 111.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.2N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.3N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222200Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 104.3W.
22JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1355
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 222041
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

The convective pattern associated with Celia has been improving this
afternoon. Although the storm is still asymmetric, thunderstorm
activity is beginning to curve around the center of circulation
during the past couple of hours. A recent ASCAT-B pass captured a
portion of the western side of the system, and showed reliable winds
in the 35-40 kt range. Dvorak estimates range from 37 to 55 kt.
Based on a combination of all of this data, the initial intensity is
increased a little to 45 kt.

The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 7 kt, and it is
currently being steered by a strong mid-level ridge centered over
the south-central U.S. This ridge is expected to remain in control
during the next several days, and it should keep Celia on a general
west-northwest track through the forecast period. The NHC track
forecast lies near the southern edge of the guidance in the short
term, partially based on extrapolation, but near the consensus
models after that.

The environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable
for Celia during the next couple of days. The SHIPS model shows the
shear decreasing to about 10 kt during that time while the storm
remains over 27-28 degree C waters. These conditions should allow
Celia to strengthen, and it is expected to become a hurricane in
about 36 hours. By the weekend, however, Celia is expected to cross
the 26 degree C isotherm and move into a drier airmass, which should
end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the HCCA
and IVCN consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 13.8N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 14.4N 105.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 15.4N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.0N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.5N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 17.2N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 18.0N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 19.2N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 20.3N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 222041
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...CELIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 104.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 104.2 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is expected, and Celia
could become a hurricane Thursday night or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are increasing along portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the coast through
Thursday. Swells could also reach southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula by Friday. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 222040
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
2100 UTC WED JUN 22 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 104.2W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 104.2W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 103.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.4N 105.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.0N 108.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 109.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.2N 110.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 111.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.2N 115.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 20.3N 119.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 104.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 221611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 22.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 104.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.06.2022 0 13.2N 104.0W 1002 29
0000UTC 23.06.2022 12 13.9N 104.5W 1000 28
1200UTC 23.06.2022 24 15.8N 106.7W 999 36
0000UTC 24.06.2022 36 16.2N 109.7W 998 30
1200UTC 24.06.2022 48 16.1N 111.4W 998 30
0000UTC 25.06.2022 60 16.1N 112.5W 998 31
1200UTC 25.06.2022 72 16.4N 113.0W 998 35
0000UTC 26.06.2022 84 17.5N 114.1W 997 38
1200UTC 26.06.2022 96 17.8N 115.6W 996 37
0000UTC 27.06.2022 108 18.9N 117.0W 997 34
1200UTC 27.06.2022 120 19.8N 119.0W 999 35
0000UTC 28.06.2022 132 20.8N 121.2W 1000 37
1200UTC 28.06.2022 144 21.4N 123.5W 1003 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 34.0N 72.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.06.2022 24 34.0N 72.7W 1003 35
0000UTC 24.06.2022 36 35.3N 70.1W 999 40
1200UTC 24.06.2022 48 36.4N 68.4W 1004 33
0000UTC 25.06.2022 60 38.6N 66.1W 1004 35
1200UTC 25.06.2022 72 41.6N 64.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 26.06.2022 84 43.4N 62.9W 1010 25
1200UTC 26.06.2022 96 43.3N 62.3W 1015 25
0000UTC 27.06.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221611

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 221611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 104.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.06.2022 13.2N 104.0W WEAK
00UTC 23.06.2022 13.9N 104.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.06.2022 15.8N 106.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.06.2022 16.2N 109.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 16.1N 111.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.06.2022 16.1N 112.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 16.4N 113.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 17.5N 114.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2022 17.8N 115.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.06.2022 18.9N 117.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.06.2022 19.8N 119.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.06.2022 20.8N 121.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2022 21.4N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 34.0N 72.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.06.2022 34.0N 72.7W WEAK
00UTC 24.06.2022 35.3N 70.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 36.4N 68.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.06.2022 38.6N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 41.6N 64.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 43.4N 62.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.06.2022 43.3N 62.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221611

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 221600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 13.6N 103.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 103.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 14.3N 104.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.4N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.1N 107.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.6N 108.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.2N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.9N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.3N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.2N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221600Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 103.8W.
22JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1370
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222200Z, 230400Z, 231000Z AND 231600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 221433
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Strong east-northeasterly shear has not yet abated, and Celia's
center remains offset just to the northeast of the main area of
deep convection. However, low-cloud lines with embedded convective
cells have become more evident in microwave imagery, suggesting that
the circulation has become a little more robust. Celia's estimated
intensity remains 40 kt, with subjective and objective analyses
ranging between 35 and 45 kt.

Stronger-than-normal ridging over the south-central United States
and northern Mexico continues to steer Celia toward the
west-northwest, with a slightly slower motion of 295/10 kt. Even
with this stable steering configuration, the track model spread is
larger than normal during the first couple of days of the forecast,
mainly because the HWRF remains a southern outlier and the GFS is
slower than the main pack of models. Model spread is near or lower
than normal on days 3 through 5. The updated NHC track forecast is
a bit to the right and slower than the previous forecast and the
model consensus aids, hedging toward the GFS and ECMWF on the right
side of the guidance envelope. All in all, Celia should maintain a
general west-northwestward heading through Monday.

Model diagnoses indicate that the current magnitude of
deep-layer shear should continue for another 6 to 12 hours and then
drop to 10 kt or less by 24 hours. With an already-established
low-level circulation and SSTs of about 28 degrees Celsius, the
lower shear should allow Celia to intensify and reach hurricane
strength in a couple of days. That opportunity will be relatively
short lived, however, since the cyclone is likely to reach sub-26C
waters in about 60 hours. After that time, gradual weakening is
anticipated. The NHC intensity is unchanged from the previous
forecast and is slightly above the intensity consensus aids during
the middle part of the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.7N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 14.3N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.4N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 16.1N 107.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.6N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 17.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 17.9N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 19.3N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 221433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...CELIA CRUISING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 103.7W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 103.7 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general
west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed
is expected through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Celia is expected to become a
hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells will increase along portions of the southwestern coast
of Mexico today and spread northward along the coast through
Thursday. Swells could also reach southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula by Friday. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 221432
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
1500 UTC WED JUN 22 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.7W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.7W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 103.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.3N 104.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.4N 106.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.1N 107.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.6N 108.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.2N 110.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.9N 111.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.3N 114.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 103.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 221000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 102.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 102.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.0N 104.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.9N 105.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.7N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.2N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.8N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.4N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.7N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.8N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221000Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 103.0W.
22JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1418
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BLAS) FOR THE FINAL WARNING (WTPN31
PGTW) ON THAT SYSTEM.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 220843
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

The organization of Celia has not changed significantly based
on satellite imagery since the last advisory. A couple of recent
scatterometer passes showed an elongated low-level circulation on
the northeastern edge of a convective burst, likely due to the
effects of the moderate northeasterly shear. Dvorak intensity
estimates range between 35 and 45 kt, and with no increase in the
organization of the cloud pattern in the past several hours, the
initial intensity estimate remains 40 kt. Data from the
scatterometer overpasses suggest that this may be a generous
intensity estimate, however.

Celia continues to move west-northwestward at 295/11 kt along the
southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the southern
United States. This ridge is expected to continue to steer the
tropical cyclone west-northwestward with a gradual decrease in
forward speed through the forecast period. The track forecast
models have come into better agreement, however there are still
some discrepancies over the speed at which Celia will move during
the next several days. The official track forecast is in very good
agreement with the previous NHC prediction and remains close to the
dynamical model consensus.

Based on the dynamical guidance, the moderate shear over the
tropical storm is expected to persist today before decreasing this
evening. Since other environmental factors are already conducive
for intensification, Celia is expected strengthen to a hurricane
within the next 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is near
or above the intensity model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 13.4N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 14.0N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 14.9N 105.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 15.7N 107.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 16.2N 108.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 16.8N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 17.4N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 18.7N 114.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 19.8N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 220840
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...CELIA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 103.0W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 103.0 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Celia
is likely to become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells will increase along portions of the southwestern coast
of Mexico today and spread northward along the coast through
Thursday. Swells could also reach southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula by Friday. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 220840
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0900 UTC WED JUN 22 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.0W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.0W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 102.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.0N 104.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.9N 105.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.7N 107.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.2N 108.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.8N 110.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.7N 114.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 19.8N 117.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 103.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 220409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 22.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 101.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.06.2022 0 12.5N 101.5W 1004 31
1200UTC 22.06.2022 12 13.4N 103.8W 1003 28
0000UTC 23.06.2022 24 14.2N 105.0W 1001 26
1200UTC 23.06.2022 36 15.5N 107.2W 1000 30
0000UTC 24.06.2022 48 16.4N 109.4W 999 27
1200UTC 24.06.2022 60 16.7N 111.4W 1001 28
0000UTC 25.06.2022 72 16.7N 113.0W 1000 30
1200UTC 25.06.2022 84 16.7N 113.7W 1001 31
0000UTC 26.06.2022 96 17.3N 115.1W 1001 34
1200UTC 26.06.2022 108 18.1N 115.5W 1001 33
0000UTC 27.06.2022 120 19.4N 117.0W 1001 30
1200UTC 27.06.2022 132 20.1N 119.1W 1003 32
0000UTC 28.06.2022 144 20.6N 121.8W 1004 30

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 43.1N 1.0E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.06.2022 0 43.1N 1.0E 1006 23
1200UTC 22.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 34.6N 72.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.06.2022 36 34.6N 72.4W 1001 38
0000UTC 24.06.2022 48 36.0N 69.9W 996 39
1200UTC 24.06.2022 60 38.3N 67.6W 1000 42
0000UTC 25.06.2022 72 41.5N 65.2W 1003 34
1200UTC 25.06.2022 84 43.9N 63.5W 1009 36
0000UTC 26.06.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220409

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 220409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 101.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.06.2022 12.5N 101.5W WEAK
12UTC 22.06.2022 13.4N 103.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.06.2022 14.2N 105.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.06.2022 15.5N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.06.2022 16.4N 109.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 16.7N 111.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.06.2022 16.7N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 16.7N 113.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 17.3N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2022 18.1N 115.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.06.2022 19.4N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.06.2022 20.1N 119.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.06.2022 20.6N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 34.6N 72.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.06.2022 34.6N 72.4W WEAK
00UTC 24.06.2022 36.0N 69.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.06.2022 38.3N 67.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.06.2022 41.5N 65.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 43.9N 63.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220409

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 220400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 12.8N 101.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 101.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.5N 103.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 14.3N 104.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.1N 106.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.9N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.5N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.1N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.5N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.5N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220400Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 102.0W.
22JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1472
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BLAS) FOR THE FINAL WARNING (WTPN31
PGTW) ON THAT SYSTEM.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 220234
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Satellite imagery shows little change in the organization of Celia
since the last advisory, with the low-level center located near the
northeastern edge of the main area of convective bursts. This is
due to the effects of about 20 kt of northeasterly shear. Various
objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are in the
35-45 kt range and have changed little over the past several hours.
The initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory.

Celia continues to moves west-northwestward with a slower forward
speed, and the initial motion is now 295/11. A subtropical ridge
centered over the southern United States and Mexico is likely to
keep Celia on a general west-northwestward trajectory for the next
5 days, with a gradual decrease in forward speed expected through
Friday. While the track forecast models are in general agreement
with this scenario, the guidance is somewhat loosely clustered due
to some cross-track spread. The new forecast track is a little to
the north of the previous forecast during the first 72 h, and then
is similar to the previous forecast.

The large-scale models indicate the current shear is likely to
persist for another 24 h or so, and based on this slow
strengthening is forecast during the first part of the intensity
forecast. From 24-60 h, the shear should diminish while Celia is
still over warm sea surface temperatures, and this should allow
for a faster rate of strengthening and for Celia to become a
hurricane. After 60 h, the cyclone should moved over colder sea
surface temperatures, and the new intensity forecast calls for a
little faster weakening than the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 13.0N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 14.3N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 15.1N 106.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 15.9N 107.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 16.5N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 17.1N 110.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 18.5N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 220234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

...CELIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 101.9W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 101.9 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in
forward speed through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next two to three days,
and Celia is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
to the southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells will begin to increase along portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and spread northward along the
coast through Thursday. Swells could also reach southern portions
of the Baja California peninsula by Friday. These conditions could
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 220233
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0300 UTC WED JUN 22 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 101.9W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 101.9W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 101.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.3N 104.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.1N 106.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.9N 107.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.5N 109.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.1N 110.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 101.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 212200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 12.3N 100.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 100.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.0N 102.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.7N 104.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.5N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.3N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.0N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.6N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.8N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.2N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
212200Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 101.5W.
21JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1517
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220400Z, 221000Z, 221600Z AND
222200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BLAS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 212200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 12.3N 100.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 100.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.0N 102.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.7N 104.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.5N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.3N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.0N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.6N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.8N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.2N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
212200Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 101.5W.
21JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1517
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220400Z, 221000Z, 221600Z AND
222200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BLAS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 212034
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Recent scatterometer data suggest that Celia's surface circulation
is stretched from northeast to southwest, and it's possible that the
center is re-forming closer to the deep convection. Tropical-storm-
force winds are confined to the southwestern quadrant (within the
convection), and the least-questionable of the two ASCAT passes
suggests that peak winds are near 40 kt. This is a little higher
than the subjective Dvorak estimates but equal to the latest
UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate.

Celia appears to have turned toward the west-northwest, and with
the center being tugged westward by the convection, has sped up a
little bit with a motion of 285/13 kt. A strong subtropical ridge
centered over the southern United States and Mexico is likely to
keep Celia on a west-northwestward trajectory for the next 5 days,
with a gradual decrease in forward speed expected through Friday.
While the UKMET has come closer in line with the other models on
this cycle, the HWRF remains a southern outlier, likely because it
is showing more immediate intensification to a hurricane within 24
hours. This scenario does not appear reasonable given the current
shear conditions, and the NHC forecast remains farther north,
closer to the model consensus aids and the 1500 UTC forecast.

Moderate-to-strong shear from the east-northeast is likely to
continue affecting Celia for the next 36 hours or so. Some
continued gradual strengthening is still possible, however, and the
NHC forecast is at the low end of the intensity guidance during
that period. After 36 hours, the official forecast is closer to the
model consensus aids ICON and HCCA as deep-layer shear decreases
and SSTs remain above 26C, and Celia is forecast to become a
hurricane by Thursday. Some weakening is anticipated over the
weekend once Celia reaches sub-26C ocean waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 12.5N 101.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 13.0N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 13.7N 104.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 14.5N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 15.3N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 16.0N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 16.6N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 17.8N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 19.2N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 212034
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

...CELIA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 101.3W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 101.3 West. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and it is
expected to continue on this heading with a gradual decrease in
forward speed through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Celia
is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
to the southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells will begin to increase along portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and spread northward along the
coast through Thursday. Swells could also reach southern portions
of the Baja California peninsula by Friday. These conditions could
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 212033
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
2100 UTC TUE JUN 21 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 101.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 101.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 100.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.0N 102.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.7N 104.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.3N 107.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.6N 110.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 17.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.2N 115.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 101.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 211610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 99.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.06.2022 0 11.8N 99.6W 1006 26
0000UTC 22.06.2022 12 12.1N 101.7W 1004 29
1200UTC 22.06.2022 24 13.3N 103.5W 1003 30
0000UTC 23.06.2022 36 14.3N 105.4W 1002 27
1200UTC 23.06.2022 48 15.4N 107.6W 1000 33
0000UTC 24.06.2022 60 16.2N 109.5W 999 32
1200UTC 24.06.2022 72 16.7N 111.6W 1000 30
0000UTC 25.06.2022 84 16.5N 113.7W 1000 29
1200UTC 25.06.2022 96 16.4N 114.9W 1001 28
0000UTC 26.06.2022 108 16.4N 115.8W 1001 31
1200UTC 26.06.2022 120 16.8N 116.1W 1002 31
0000UTC 27.06.2022 132 18.1N 117.2W 1002 37
1200UTC 27.06.2022 144 19.5N 119.3W 1003 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 36.6N 72.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.06.2022 48 36.7N 72.2W 999 39
0000UTC 24.06.2022 60 38.2N 70.0W 1001 39
1200UTC 24.06.2022 72 40.8N 68.2W 1004 38
0000UTC 25.06.2022 84 42.2N 66.4W 1007 32
1200UTC 25.06.2022 96 42.3N 65.8W 1011 30
0000UTC 26.06.2022 108 42.4N 65.4W 1013 22
1200UTC 26.06.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 36.9N 66.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.06.2022 84 36.9N 66.5W 1010 33
1200UTC 25.06.2022 96 42.1N 65.5W 1012 31
0000UTC 26.06.2022 108 42.4N 65.4W 1013 22
1200UTC 26.06.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 211610

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 211610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 99.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.06.2022 11.8N 99.6W WEAK
00UTC 22.06.2022 12.1N 101.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.06.2022 13.3N 103.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.06.2022 14.3N 105.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.06.2022 15.4N 107.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.06.2022 16.2N 109.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 16.7N 111.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.06.2022 16.5N 113.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 16.4N 114.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 16.4N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2022 16.8N 116.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.06.2022 18.1N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.06.2022 19.5N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 36.6N 72.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.06.2022 36.7N 72.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.06.2022 38.2N 70.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 40.8N 68.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.06.2022 42.2N 66.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 42.3N 65.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.06.2022 42.4N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 36.9N 66.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.06.2022 36.9N 66.5W WEAK
12UTC 25.06.2022 42.1N 65.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 42.4N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 211610

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 211600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 020
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 11.6N 98.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 98.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 12.0N 101.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.7N 103.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.4N 104.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 14.3N 106.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.2N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.8N 108.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.0N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.4N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211600Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 99.7W.
21JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1615
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BLAS) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT
SYSTEM (WTPN31 PGTW 1600).
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 211434
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Deep convection has been increasing, but it remains confined to the
west of the center of Celia due to about 20 kt of east-northeasterly
shear. Even though the cyclone is still asymmetric, it does appear
a little better organized than it was several hours ago. The latest
Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin range from 30 to 45 kt, and the initial intensity is
nudged up to 35 kt based on that data. This makes Celia a tropical
storm once again.

Celia is moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 10 kt,
and it is currently being steered by a mid-level ridge that is
centered over the south-central U.S. A turn to the west-northwest is
expected by tonight, and that motion should continue during the next
several days as the storm moves within the flow on the southwest
side of the ridge. Despite the fairly straightforward steering
pattern, there remains a fair amount of spread in the guidance with
the HWRF and UKMET models on the southern edge and the ECMWF model
on the northern side. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle
of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various
consensus aids.

Celia will likely strengthen at a slow pace during the next couple
of days as the system remains in moderate to strong shear
conditions. The overall environment looks best for Celia late this
week and early this weekend, when the shear is expected to decrease
and while SSTs beneath the system remain warm, and it will likely
become a hurricane during that time. However, later in the weekend,
the storm is expected to move over sub 26 C waters, which should end
the strengthening trend and induce some weakening. The NHC
intensity forecast lies at the low end of the guidance during the
next 36-48 hours, but falls near the middle of the envelope beyond
that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 11.6N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 12.0N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 12.7N 103.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 13.4N 104.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 14.3N 106.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 15.8N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 17.0N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 211433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

...CELIA BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 99.5W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 99.5 West. Celia is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected by tonight, and that motion should
continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected, and Celia is forecast to become a
hurricane in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells will likely increase along portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico in a couple of days. These conditions could
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 211432
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
1500 UTC TUE JUN 21 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 99.5W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 99.5W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 98.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.0N 101.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.7N 103.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.4N 104.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.3N 106.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.8N 108.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.0N 111.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 99.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 211000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 98.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 98.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.0N 100.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.5N 102.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.2N 104.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.1N 105.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.0N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.8N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.0N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.5N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211000Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 98.8W.
21JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1646 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BLAS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 210845
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Celia has changed little in organization during the past several
hours. Strong northeasterly shear has been affecting the
depression, with the center of the cyclone near the sharp
northeastern edge of a rather shapeless area of very strong
convection. The system lacks well-defined banding features at this
time, and Dvorak analyses from TAFB and SAB support keeping the
intensity at 30 kt for this advisory.

Based on the SHIPS model output, Celia should continue to be in an
environment of moderate, but significant, vertical shear for
the next day or two followed by a notable decrease of shear
in 48 hours. The official intensity forecast calls for only slow
strengthening in the early part of the period followed by a
slightly faster rate of intensification for a while thereafter. In
3-5 days, however, cooler SSTs should limit strengthening. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus
for the earlier part of the period and a little above it later
on. This is about the same as in the previous NHC forecast.

Celia has been moving slightly south of west, or about 265/11 kt.
A mid-tropospheric ridge extending west-southwestward from a high
centered near the southern U.S. Plains should remain in place to
the north of the tropical cyclone for the next several days. Celia
should move on a generally west-northwestward track on the
southwest side of the ridge for most of the forecast period.
Although the steering pattern seems relatively straightforward,
there are noticeable differences in the track forecasts from some
of the more reliable models. As noted earlier, this could partially
be due to differences in the cyclone vortex depths in these models.
The official track forecast is only slightly south of the previous
one, and follows the corrected multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 11.6N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 12.0N 100.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 12.5N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 13.2N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 14.1N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 15.0N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 15.8N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 18.5N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 210842
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

...CELIA LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 98.5W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 98.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected over the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Celia will likely become a
tropical storm today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 210841
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0900 UTC TUE JUN 21 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 98.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 98.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 98.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.0N 100.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 12.5N 102.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.2N 104.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.1N 105.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.8N 108.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 98.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 210409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 97.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.06.2022 0 11.6N 97.7W 1006 25
1200UTC 21.06.2022 12 12.2N 99.6W 1007 24
0000UTC 22.06.2022 24 12.5N 102.1W 1005 25
1200UTC 22.06.2022 36 13.3N 103.9W 1004 24
0000UTC 23.06.2022 48 14.2N 105.7W 1003 28
1200UTC 23.06.2022 60 15.1N 107.5W 1002 30
0000UTC 24.06.2022 72 16.2N 109.7W 1000 29
1200UTC 24.06.2022 84 16.7N 111.8W 1001 28
0000UTC 25.06.2022 96 16.7N 113.7W 1000 29
1200UTC 25.06.2022 108 16.6N 114.9W 1002 28
0000UTC 26.06.2022 120 16.9N 115.8W 1002 31
1200UTC 26.06.2022 132 17.8N 115.8W 1003 31
0000UTC 27.06.2022 144 18.6N 117.4W 1003 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 35.6N 73.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.06.2022 60 35.8N 72.1W 1002 36
0000UTC 24.06.2022 72 37.5N 69.9W 1002 37
1200UTC 24.06.2022 84 40.0N 68.0W 1005 34
0000UTC 25.06.2022 96 41.2N 67.1W 1009 28
1200UTC 25.06.2022 108 41.3N 66.6W 1012 33
0000UTC 26.06.2022 120 40.5N 66.6W 1013 18
1200UTC 26.06.2022 132 41.1N 65.2W 1014 19
0000UTC 27.06.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210409

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 210409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 97.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.06.2022 11.6N 97.7W WEAK
12UTC 21.06.2022 12.2N 99.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.06.2022 12.5N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.06.2022 13.3N 103.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.06.2022 14.2N 105.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.06.2022 15.1N 107.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.06.2022 16.2N 109.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 16.7N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.06.2022 16.7N 113.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 16.6N 114.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 16.9N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2022 17.8N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.06.2022 18.6N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 35.6N 73.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.06.2022 35.8N 72.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.06.2022 37.5N 69.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 40.0N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.06.2022 41.2N 67.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 41.3N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 40.5N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2022 41.1N 65.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210409

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 210400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 11.8N 96.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 96.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 12.1N 99.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 12.5N 101.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.2N 103.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.9N 104.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 14.9N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.7N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.3N 110.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.5N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210400Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 97.6W.
21JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1676 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211000Z, 211600Z, 212200Z AND 220400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BLAS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 210253
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

The depression has become better organized based on geostationary
and microwave satellite imagery. The center is embedded in the
eastern side of a growing area of deep convection. However,
subjective satellite estimates still support an intensity at 30 kt
and therefore, the initial intensity is set to that value.

Despite moderate east-northeasterly shear, the depression is
expected to gradually re-strengthen in the next day or so. Celia
will likely continue to intensify in the following few days, in part
due to the cyclone moving over warm waters in a low-or-moderate
shear environment. At the end of the forecast period,
intensification will likely halt as the storm encounters cooler
waters. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the
previous one and represents a compromise between the higher
dynamical hurricane models and lower global model intensities.

Celia continues westward (270/11 kt) due to the steering flow of a
mid-level ridge to its north, and this motion should persist for
another day or so. The system is expected to turn west-northwest
and eventually northwestward as it rounds the southwest side of the
ridge. There is a fair bit of model disagreement this cycle in both
cross-track and along-track storm positions. This is possibly due
to a wide variety of forecast model tropical cyclone vortex depths
which experience very different environmental steering flows. The
NHC track forecast lies to the north of the consensus aids, a little
closer to the global models, and is slightly faster than the
previous forecast. The large spread in model guidance makes this
track forecast more uncertain than average.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 11.9N 97.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 12.1N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 12.5N 101.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 13.2N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 13.9N 104.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 14.9N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 17.3N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 18.5N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 210252
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...CELIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 97.4W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 97.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next couple days, followed
by a turn to the west-northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Celia will likely become a
tropical storm on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 210251
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0300 UTC TUE JUN 21 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 97.4W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 97.4W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 96.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.1N 99.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.5N 101.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.2N 103.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N 104.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.9N 106.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 17.3N 110.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 97.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 11.9N 95.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 95.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.1N 98.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.4N 100.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.9N 101.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.4N 103.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.4N 105.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.4N 106.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.1N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.3N 111.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202200Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 96.6W.
20JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1712 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210400Z, 211000Z, 211600Z AND 212200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BLAS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 202036
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Celia remains a sheared tropical cyclone south of southern Mexico
with deep convection confined to the west of the center due to about
20 kt of east-northeasterly shear. Even though the center is still
exposed, deep convection has increased a little today and banding
features are becoming a little better established on the system's
south and west sides. Satellite intensity estimates range from 25 to
37 kt, and the initial wind speed is nudged up to 30 kt based on
that data. Unfortunately, ASCAT missed the system this afternoon.

After moving south of due west for the past 18-24 hours, Celia has
now turned westward and picked up speed. The latest initial motion
estimate is 275/11 kt. Celia is expected to continue westward for
the next couple of days as it remains steered by a mid-level ridge
to its north. After that time, a slightly slower west-northwest
motion is expected as it moves on the southwest side of the ridge.
Although the models generally agree on the large-scale steering
pattern, there is a fair amount of spread in forward speed and
direction. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and still lies to the north of the consensus models,
leaning toward the GFS and ECMWF models.

The ongoing east-northeasterly shear is expected to persist for
another day, so strengthening will likely be limited in the short
term. However, the shear is expected to lessen after that time, and
given the moist airmass and high SSTs, steady strengthening seems
likely between 24 and 96 hours. By the end of the forecast period,
Celia will likely be moving over cooler SSTs, which should end the
strengthening trend. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly
higher peak than the previous one and is in best agreement with the
IVCN model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 12.0N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 12.1N 98.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 12.4N 100.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 12.9N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 13.4N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 14.4N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 15.4N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 17.1N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 18.3N 111.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 202035
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...CELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 96.4W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 96.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days,
followed by a turn to the west-northwest.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strenghtening is forecast, and Celia
will likely become a tropical storm on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 202035
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
2100 UTC MON JUN 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 96.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 96.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 95.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.1N 98.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.4N 100.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 12.9N 101.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.4N 103.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.4N 105.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.4N 106.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 17.1N 109.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.3N 111.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 96.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 201611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 20.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 113.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.06.2022 0 19.2N 113.4W 1004 25
0000UTC 21.06.2022 12 18.9N 114.7W 1005 23
1200UTC 21.06.2022 24 18.8N 115.6W 1007 19
0000UTC 22.06.2022 36 18.9N 116.2W 1008 18
1200UTC 22.06.2022 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 94.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.06.2022 0 12.0N 94.7W 1007 31
0000UTC 21.06.2022 12 11.7N 97.4W 1006 29
1200UTC 21.06.2022 24 12.2N 99.4W 1007 26
0000UTC 22.06.2022 36 12.7N 102.2W 1005 25
1200UTC 22.06.2022 48 13.3N 104.4W 1004 26
0000UTC 23.06.2022 60 14.2N 106.2W 1002 28
1200UTC 23.06.2022 72 15.3N 108.1W 1002 29
0000UTC 24.06.2022 84 16.2N 110.4W 1000 27
1200UTC 24.06.2022 96 17.1N 112.8W 1003 26
0000UTC 25.06.2022 108 17.2N 115.1W 1002 28
1200UTC 25.06.2022 120 16.8N 117.0W 1004 25
0000UTC 26.06.2022 132 16.5N 118.6W 1004 25
1200UTC 26.06.2022 144 16.9N 119.5W 1006 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 38.1N 73.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.06.2022 72 37.4N 72.6W 1005 34
0000UTC 24.06.2022 84 38.7N 70.5W 1006 31
1200UTC 24.06.2022 96 40.3N 67.5W 1010 28
0000UTC 25.06.2022 108 41.1N 65.2W 1013 28
1200UTC 25.06.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201610

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 201610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 113.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.06.2022 19.2N 113.4W WEAK
00UTC 21.06.2022 18.9N 114.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.06.2022 18.8N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.06.2022 18.9N 116.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 94.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.06.2022 12.0N 94.7W WEAK
00UTC 21.06.2022 11.7N 97.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.06.2022 12.2N 99.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.06.2022 12.7N 102.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.06.2022 13.3N 104.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.06.2022 14.2N 106.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.06.2022 15.3N 108.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.06.2022 16.2N 110.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 17.1N 112.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.06.2022 17.2N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 16.8N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 16.5N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2022 16.9N 119.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 38.1N 73.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.06.2022 37.4N 72.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.06.2022 38.7N 70.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 40.3N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.06.2022 41.1N 65.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201610

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 11.7N 94.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 94.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 11.6N 96.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 11.8N 98.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 12.2N 100.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.8N 102.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.5N 103.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 14.6N 105.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.3N 108.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.4N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 95.1W.
20JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1774 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BLAS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 201433
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Celia remains a poorly organized and weak tropical cyclone.
Geostationary satellite and microwave images show an exposed
low-level center with fragmented curved bands on its west side. The
initial intensity remains 25 kt, and Celia is barely hanging on as a
tropical depression. The depression has been in an environment of
strong east-northeasterly shear during the past day or so, and that
is expected to continue through tonight. Therefore, no change in
strength is expected during that time and it is possible that Celia
could even open into a trough. However, the shear is expected to
lessen after that, and given the conducive environment later in
the week, strengthening seems likely from 24-120 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and a blend of
the HCCA and IVCN guidance.

The system is moving west-southwestward at about 7 kt. A faster
motion to the west and then the west-northwest is expected during
the next several days as the cyclone is steered by a building low-
to mid-level ridge to its north. The NHC track forecast is quite
similar to the previous one and lies a little to the north of the
consensus aids, leaning toward the GFS and ECMWF models, which are
both on the right side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 11.7N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 11.6N 96.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 11.8N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 12.2N 100.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 12.8N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 14.6N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.3N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 17.4N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 201432
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...CELIA STILL STRUGGLING BUT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN A DAY OR
SO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 94.8W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 94.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13
km/h). A slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is
expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. A gradual strengthening trend is forecast to begin by early
Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 201432
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 94.8W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 94.8W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 94.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.6N 96.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 11.8N 98.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.2N 100.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.8N 102.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.6N 105.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.3N 108.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.4N 110.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 94.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 12.0N 93.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 93.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 11.7N 95.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.8N 97.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.1N 99.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.6N 101.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.2N 103.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.0N 104.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.9N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.0N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
201000Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 94.5W.
20JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1780 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z,
210400Z AND 211000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLAS)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 200843
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

There have been a few small bursts of deep convection near the
estimated center of Celia, but easterly shear continues to prevent
significant organization of the thunderstorm activity. The current
intensity estimate remains at 25 kt in accordance with a Dvorak
estimate from SAB. Unfortunately a recent scatterometer pass,
which could have given additional information on the strength
of the system, missed the circulation of the cyclone.

The global models indicate that the persistent easterly shear over
Celia, associated with an upper-level anticyclone over southeastern
Mexico, should gradually diminish as the tropical cyclone moves
farther west. This should allow for some strengthening to commence
within the next day or so. The official forecast shows gradual
intensification beginning at 24 hours and is in good agreement with
the intensity model consensus, IVCN, for the 5-day forecast period.

Celia's center slipped a little south of the previous track but the
best estimate of initial motion is west-southwestward, or 255/8 kt.
A large zonally-oriented subtropical ridge is expected to prevail
to the north of Celia for the next several days. This should
induce a westward and then west-northwestward track over the
period. The official track forecast is similar to the model
consensus and not far from the previous NHC prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 11.9N 94.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 11.7N 95.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 11.8N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 12.1N 99.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 12.6N 101.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 13.2N 103.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 14.0N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 15.9N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 17.0N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 200841
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...CELIA EXPECTED TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 94.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 94.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and a generally westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed
is expected for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
A gradual strengthening trend is forecast to begin by early Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 200840
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0900 UTC MON JUN 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 94.4W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 94.4W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 93.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.7N 95.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 11.8N 97.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.1N 99.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 12.6N 101.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.2N 103.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.0N 104.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 15.9N 108.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 94.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 200400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 93.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 93.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 11.9N 95.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 11.9N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 12.1N 99.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 12.4N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.8N 102.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.5N 104.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.4N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.0N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200400Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 94.1W.
20JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1774 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 200253
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Celia is still struggling in a sheared environment. Some bursts of
convection continue to pulse near the center of the weak depression,
which remains exposed due to easterly shear. The initial
intensity remains at 25 kt, mainly because there have been no new
data to suggest otherwise.

The initial motion is south of due west, or 260/8 kt. The ongoing
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will likely cause the tropical
depression to continue west-southwestward for the next day or so.
Celia is then expected to be steered around the southwestern and
western edge of a ridge centered over the southeast United States
which should turn the tropical cyclone to the west-northwest beyond
the 36 h forecast. The model track guidance is tightly clustered,
and the new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one with a
shift to the west at the end of the prediction period.

The depression is being affected by strong upper-level winds, which
are resulting in about 20 kt of shear. This shear is forecast to
slowly abate in the next day or so which will possibly allow for
some strengthening of Celia by the middle of the week. Celia could
even become a hurricane by the end of the forecast period as the
vertical wind shear decreases and other environmental factors remain
favorable. The official forecast is close to the previous advisory
and on the lower end of the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 12.2N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 11.9N 95.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 11.9N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 12.1N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 12.4N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 12.8N 102.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 13.5N 104.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 15.4N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 200252
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...CELIA STILL STRUGGLING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 93.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM WSW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 93.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a
west-southwestward motion is expected over the next day or so
followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwestward by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours followed
by gradual intensification.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 200252
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0300 UTC MON JUN 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 93.9W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 93.9W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 93.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.9N 95.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.9N 97.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.1N 99.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.4N 101.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.8N 102.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.5N 104.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 15.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 93.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 192200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 12.7N 93.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 93.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.1N 94.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 11.5N 96.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.6N 98.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.1N 100.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.5N 102.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.0N 103.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.7N 106.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.3N 108.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
192200Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 93.7W.
19JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1781 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 192044
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Celia appears to be holding its own this afternoon. While convection
has waned as it typically does approaching the diurnal minimum over
the ocean, there remain a few convective clusters located near the
depression's estimated low-level center. While scatterometer imagery
largely missed Celia's circulation to the west, it did show that
there were 25-30 kt northerly wind-retrievals in the gap wind flow
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These somewhat higher winds are not yet
related to Celia's wind field, but will likely play some role in
broadening the overall cyclonic envelope of the system. Satellite
estimates from SAB and TAFB remain unchanged from this morning, and
so the current intensity remains 25 kt.

The depression is losing some latitude while it has sped up some,
with its current motion estimated at 260/9 kt. A general west-
southwestward motion is expected to continue over the next day or so
because of northward deep-layer ridging in addition to the
northerly gap winds contributing to Celia's steering. Later this
week, a gradual rightward turn to the west-northwest is anticipated
due to the cyclone rounding the southwest side of the deep-layer
ridging. Once again the track guidance has shifted a bit south this
cycle, and the NHC track is also shifted in that direction, which
lies close to the multi-model consensus aids.

There are some interesting variations in the intensity guidance this
afternoon. For example, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance
disagree on how quickly the northeasterly shear over Celia will
subside over the next several days. The ECMWF notably now shows the
shear dropping under 20 kt as soon as 18 hours from now and
remaining under that value for the remainder of the forecast period.
The GFS shear forecast is a good 5-10 kt higher for the next 48
hours. An inspection of the raw model fields, using simulated
IR-Brightness temperature, reveals that the GFS struggles to produce
deep convection near Celia over that time span, while the ECMWF
shows more widespread convection near Celia's center. This
convection may result in more upper-level outflow mitigating the
easterly shear over the cyclone. The ECMWF has also been handling
the convective structure with Celia better today, so some credence
is given towards its overall solution. The NHC intensity forecast
now shows a bit more intensification after 24 hours, and now makes
Celia a hurricane by 96 hours, which is faster than the previous
forecast. This is more in line with the IVCN consensus, but remains
lower than some of the more bullish guidance (HWRF, HMON,
ECMWF-SHIPS).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 12.7N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 12.1N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 11.5N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 11.6N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 12.1N 100.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 12.5N 102.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 13.0N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 14.7N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 16.3N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 192043
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...CELIA HOLDING ITS OWN WHILE MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 93.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 93.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a
west-southwestward motion is expected over the next day or so
followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwestward by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is now forecast, and Celia could become a
tropical storm again on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 192041
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
2100 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 93.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 93.5W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 93.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.1N 94.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.5N 96.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 11.6N 98.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.1N 100.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 12.5N 102.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.0N 103.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 14.7N 106.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 16.3N 108.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 93.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 191609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 19.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 112.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.06.2022 0 19.1N 112.3W 998 36
0000UTC 20.06.2022 12 19.0N 113.0W 1001 27
1200UTC 20.06.2022 24 19.0N 114.0W 1003 25
0000UTC 21.06.2022 36 18.8N 115.3W 1004 24
1200UTC 21.06.2022 48 18.6N 116.3W 1007 22
0000UTC 22.06.2022 60 18.6N 116.7W 1008 19
1200UTC 22.06.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 93.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.06.2022 0 13.8N 93.9W 1008 26
0000UTC 20.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.7N 97.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.06.2022 36 11.4N 98.1W 1006 28
1200UTC 21.06.2022 48 11.8N 100.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 22.06.2022 60 12.5N 102.7W 1004 28
1200UTC 22.06.2022 72 13.1N 105.2W 1002 30
0000UTC 23.06.2022 84 14.4N 107.1W 1000 36
1200UTC 23.06.2022 96 15.3N 109.5W 999 35
0000UTC 24.06.2022 108 16.1N 112.0W 997 33
1200UTC 24.06.2022 120 16.7N 114.0W 998 35
0000UTC 25.06.2022 132 17.2N 116.2W 999 36
1200UTC 25.06.2022 144 17.3N 118.1W 1001 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191609

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 191609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 112.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.06.2022 19.1N 112.3W MODERATE
00UTC 20.06.2022 19.0N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.06.2022 19.0N 114.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.06.2022 18.8N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.06.2022 18.6N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.06.2022 18.6N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 93.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.06.2022 13.8N 93.9W WEAK
00UTC 20.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.7N 97.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.06.2022 11.4N 98.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 21.06.2022 11.8N 100.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.06.2022 12.5N 102.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.06.2022 13.1N 105.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.06.2022 14.4N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.06.2022 15.3N 109.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.06.2022 16.1N 112.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 16.7N 114.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.06.2022 17.2N 116.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 17.3N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191609

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 191600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 12.9N 91.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 91.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 12.4N 93.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 11.8N 95.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 11.7N 97.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 12.0N 99.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 12.4N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.9N 102.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 14.5N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.0N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
191600Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 92.5W.
19JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1822 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BLAS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 191436
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Similar to yesterday, a widespread area of deep convection has
formed along and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, likely in
association with an ongoing gap wind event. There has also been a
few more clusters of deep convection developing just west of Celia's
estimated low-level center. Despite this activity, none of it is
especially well-organized and remains primarily down-shear of
Celia's vortex. However, it is enough coverage for now to keep Celia
as a classifiable tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 25
kt this advisory, favoring the lower SAB Dvorak classification given
the lackluster winds found with overnight scatterometer and a ship
report near the center.

Celia's motion continues off to the west, estimated at 265/7 kt. The
track guidance is in fairly good agreement that a west-southwest
motion will continue for the next 36 h as Celia is steered by a
deep-level ridge to the north supplemented by low-level northerly
flow from a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, a
turn to the west and west-northwest is anticipated as Celia becomes
positioned on the southwest side of the deep-layer ridging. The NHC
track forecast was nudged slightly south again from the prior one
following a southward adjustment in the latest consensus aids (HCCA,
TVCE).

Moderate to strong east-northeasterly vertical wind shear over the
next 24-36 hours still appears likely to keep Celia in check, and
the system is forecast to remain a depression during that time.
Afterwards, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicates
this shear should gradual subside as the system moves over 28-29 C
sea-surface temperatures. The majority of the intensity guidance
responds to this environment by showing intensification, and the
latest NHC intensity forecast was nudged upward just a bit after 36
hours. This forecast is a blend between the lower HCCA and higher
IVCN consensus aids, and is quite close to the most recent COAMPS-TC
(CTCI) forecast in 120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 12.8N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 12.4N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 11.8N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 11.7N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 12.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 12.4N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 12.9N 102.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 14.5N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 16.0N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 191434
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...CELIA MOVING WESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 92.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 92.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a
west-southwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so
followed by gradual strengthening.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 191433
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 92.4W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 92.4W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 91.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.4N 93.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.8N 95.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.7N 97.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.0N 99.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.4N 101.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.9N 102.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 14.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 108.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 92.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 13.1N 90.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 90.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.8N 92.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.2N 94.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 11.8N 96.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.9N 97.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.4N 99.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.0N 101.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.2N 104.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.8N 107.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
191000Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 91.5W.
19JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1855 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190600Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND
201000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 190845
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0900 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 91.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 91.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 90.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.8N 92.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.2N 94.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.8N 96.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 11.9N 97.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.4N 99.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.0N 101.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 14.2N 104.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 91.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 190837
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Celia is a very weak tropical cyclone. Although some sporadic deep
convection has redeveloped within its small circulation, this
activity is not well organized near the center and continues to be
displaced westward by strong shear. The intensity estimate remains
at 25 kt in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB,
however a scatterometer pass over the system and a nearby ship
report from a few hours ago suggests that this may be a generous
estimate.

The cyclone has begun to move a little faster toward the west and
the initial motion estimate is 270/6 kt. A faster motion toward the
west-southwest is anticipated for the next 48 hours or so while a
mid-level ridge builds to the north. Later in the forecast period,
Celia should turn to the west and west-northwest on the southwest
side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast is only slightly south of
the previous one and close to the solution of the latest corrected
consensus, HCCA.

Dynamical guidance indicates that strong easterly shear, associated
with an upper-level high near southeastern Mexico, should continue
to prevail over Celia for the next couple of days and prevent
intensification. Later in the forecast period, it is anticipated
that the shear will abate somewhat and allow the system to
strengthen. The official intensity forecast follows this reasoning
and is close to the latest LGEM guidance. It should be noted,
however, that the hostile dynamical environment in the short term
could cause Celia to at least temporarily lose its status as a
tropical cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 13.0N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 12.8N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 12.2N 94.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 11.8N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 11.9N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 12.4N 99.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 13.0N 101.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 14.2N 104.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 190836
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...CELIA REMAINS WEAK WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 91.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SSW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 91.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a
west-southwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 190409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 112.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.06.2022 0 18.7N 112.0W 997 37
1200UTC 19.06.2022 12 19.1N 112.5W 1000 31
0000UTC 20.06.2022 24 18.8N 113.9W 1002 27
1200UTC 20.06.2022 36 18.5N 115.0W 1004 26
0000UTC 21.06.2022 48 17.9N 116.3W 1005 25
1200UTC 21.06.2022 60 18.1N 117.1W 1007 22
0000UTC 22.06.2022 72 17.8N 117.7W 1007 21
1200UTC 22.06.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 93.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.06.2022 0 13.7N 93.1W 1008 23
1200UTC 19.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.0N 98.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.06.2022 60 11.8N 100.7W 1007 26
0000UTC 22.06.2022 72 12.5N 102.8W 1005 25
1200UTC 22.06.2022 84 13.1N 105.2W 1004 28
0000UTC 23.06.2022 96 13.9N 107.2W 1002 36
1200UTC 23.06.2022 108 14.9N 109.2W 1001 31
0000UTC 24.06.2022 120 15.8N 111.6W 999 32
1200UTC 24.06.2022 132 16.5N 113.7W 1001 29
0000UTC 25.06.2022 144 16.8N 116.3W 1000 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190409

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 190409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 112.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.06.2022 18.7N 112.0W MODERATE
12UTC 19.06.2022 19.1N 112.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.06.2022 18.8N 113.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.06.2022 18.5N 115.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.06.2022 17.9N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.06.2022 18.1N 117.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.06.2022 17.8N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 93.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.06.2022 13.7N 93.1W WEAK
12UTC 19.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.0N 98.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.06.2022 11.8N 100.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.06.2022 12.5N 102.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.06.2022 13.1N 105.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.06.2022 13.9N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.06.2022 14.9N 109.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.06.2022 15.8N 111.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 16.5N 113.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.06.2022 16.8N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190409

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 190300
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Celia remains a small, shallow vortex with almost no convection
just off the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. The initial
intensity remains at 25 kts based on the earlier scatterometer pass
and the subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB.

Celia is moving westward this evening at about 5 kt, after drifting
slightly further north. Track guidance is tightly clustered and
suggests the system will turn to the west-southwest and move faster
as it moves around a mid-level ridge to the north. The track
guidance this cycle is quite similar to the previous advisory, with
only a slight southward shift of the NHC track at the end of the
forecast period.

Easterly shear continues to inhibit any convective organization
this evening. High to moderate shear is expected for the next
several days which will limit any potential intensification. While
the intensity forecast continues to show little change in strength
over the next 48 hours, it remains possible that Celia could
briefly degenerate as a tropical cyclone or reform further west
closer to more widespread convection. Later in the forecast period,
the vertical wind shear should relax and environmental conditions
are expected to allow for some gradual development. The intensity
forecast is similar to the previous NHC forecast and is below the
model consensus IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 13.0N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 12.8N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 12.5N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 12.2N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 12.1N 96.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 12.4N 98.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 12.9N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 13.9N 104.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 15.3N 107.6W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 190300
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

...CELIA LIMPING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 90.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 90.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this
motion is expected to gradually increase in forward speed and turn
further to the west-southwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 190259
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0300 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 90.5W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 90.5W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 90.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.8N 91.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.5N 93.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.2N 94.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.1N 96.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.4N 98.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.9N 100.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N 104.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 107.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 90.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 182109 CCA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 9...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Corrected for initial motion

...SMALL CELIA STALLS WHILE ALSO A BIT WEAKER...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 90.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
extreme southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress
of this system, though the changes of direct wind impacts are
decreasing.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 90.1 West. The
depression is nearly stationary currently. A motion to the west is
forecast to begin tonight with a gradual increase in forward speed
by early next week.

Earlier satellite wind data indicated maximum sustained winds are
near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is forecast during the next several days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall are expected to the north of
Tropical Depression Celia across portions of far southern Mexico and
Guatemala through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall
may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the
region.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 182045
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Small puffs of deep convection have been occuring off and on
primarily west of the small and shallow vortex of Celia
this afternoon. Earlier, I was fortunate to receive both
ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C passes over the small circulation, and
they revealed the wind field has spun down further, with peak-wind
retrievals of only 25 kt. This value also matches the latest
objective UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) estimate. The
initial intensity this advisory is therefore being lowered to 25
kt.

After appearing to turn leftward earlier today, this afternoon Celia
has either completely stalled or is drifting ever so slightly
northward. Despite this temporary pause, the track guidance remains
adamant that a more distinct westward motion will soon occur, with
even some west-southwestward component of motion in the next 24-48
hours as the mid-level ridge to the north takes over. However, its
possible some of the guidance trackers are also picking up a center
relocation into the persistent convection ongoing south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec and the present vortex is simply too shallow to feel
the increasing easterly mid to upper-level flow currently. In any
event, the track guidance this cycle is quite similar to the
previous advisory, if just a touch slower than before. The NHC track
is fairly close to the previous one, though does show a bit slower
motion the first 12-24 hours due to the initial hesitation in Celia
today. This track lies near the reliable consensus aids.

It is quite clear easterly vertical wind shear continues to disrupt
Celia's convective structure. With the majority of the deep
convection occuring outside of the storm's radius of maximum wind,
this convection is likely doing more harm than good to the small
vortex. While the intensity forecast continues to show little change
in strength over the next 36 hours, it remains possible that Celia
could briefly degenerate as a tropical cyclone or reform further
west closer to more widespread convection. The shear is still
expected to decrease as sea-surface temperatures warm after 60
hours, and assuming Celia is still a coherent system at that time,
intensification remains possible. The intensity forecast for early
next week is identical to this morning and is still very close to
the HCCA and IVCN consensus guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track
across portions of far southern Mexico and Guatemala through Sunday.
This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and
mudslides across the region.

2. Even though Celia remains fairly close to the coast of El
Salvador and Guatemala, its wind field is small and weak and direct
wind impacts are not anticipated.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 13.0N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 12.8N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 12.5N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 12.1N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 11.9N 96.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 12.0N 98.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 12.5N 100.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 13.7N 104.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 15.0N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 182043
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

...SMALL CELIA STALLS WHILE ALSO A BIT WEAKER...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 90.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
extreme southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress
of this system, though the changes of direct wind impacts are
decreasing.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 90.1 West. The
depression is nearly stationary currently. A motion to the west is
forecast to begin tonight with a gradual increase in forward speed
by early next week.

Earlier satellite wind data indicated maximum sustained winds are
near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is forecast during the next several days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall are expected to the north of
Tropical Depression Celia across portions of far southern Mexico and
Guatemala through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall
may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the
region.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 182037
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
2100 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE CHANGES OF DIRECT WIND IMPACTS ARE
DECREASING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 90.1W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 90.1W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 90.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.8N 91.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.5N 92.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.1N 94.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.9N 96.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.0N 98.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.5N 100.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 13.7N 104.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 15.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 90.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 181609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 18.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 111.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.06.2022 0 18.0N 111.1W 994 37
0000UTC 19.06.2022 12 18.8N 112.3W 996 37
1200UTC 19.06.2022 24 18.9N 112.9W 999 35
0000UTC 20.06.2022 36 19.1N 114.4W 1001 30
1200UTC 20.06.2022 48 18.7N 115.6W 1004 27
0000UTC 21.06.2022 60 18.1N 116.7W 1005 25
1200UTC 21.06.2022 72 18.1N 117.7W 1007 22
0000UTC 22.06.2022 84 17.8N 118.1W 1007 22
1200UTC 22.06.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 93.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.06.2022 0 14.2N 93.7W 1008 29
0000UTC 19.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.2N 101.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.06.2022 72 12.2N 101.4W 1007 24
0000UTC 22.06.2022 84 12.5N 103.6W 1004 27
1200UTC 22.06.2022 96 13.2N 106.6W 1003 30
0000UTC 23.06.2022 108 14.2N 108.4W 1000 39
1200UTC 23.06.2022 120 14.7N 110.9W 998 34
0000UTC 24.06.2022 132 15.2N 113.5W 996 34
1200UTC 24.06.2022 144 15.6N 115.3W 997 35

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 31.1N 77.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.06.2022 120 31.1N 77.1W 1006 37
0000UTC 24.06.2022 132 30.8N 75.5W 1003 34
1200UTC 24.06.2022 144 30.8N 74.1W 1006 32


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181609

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 181609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 111.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.06.2022 18.0N 111.1W MODERATE
00UTC 19.06.2022 18.8N 112.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.06.2022 18.9N 112.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.06.2022 19.1N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.06.2022 18.7N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.06.2022 18.1N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.06.2022 18.1N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.06.2022 17.8N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 93.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.06.2022 14.2N 93.7W WEAK
00UTC 19.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.2N 101.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.06.2022 12.2N 101.4W WEAK
00UTC 22.06.2022 12.5N 103.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.06.2022 13.2N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.06.2022 14.2N 108.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.06.2022 14.7N 110.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.06.2022 15.2N 113.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 15.6N 115.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 31.1N 77.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.06.2022 31.1N 77.1W WEAK
00UTC 24.06.2022 30.8N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 30.8N 74.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181609

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 181439
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

After exhibiting a mostly exposed low-level swirl on overnight
satellite imagery, this morning a small but deep burst of
convection has formed just to the west of the center of Celia. Yet,
this activity does not have much organization and already appears
to be impacted by significant easterly vertical wind shear over the
system currently. Morning satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB are at 35 kt and 30 kt, with objective estimates from ADT
and SATCON at 25 kt and 36 kt respectively. The initial intensity
will remain 30 kt for this advisory.

Celia's long awaited left turn appears to be underway, with the
motion now at 290/4 kt. A building ridge to the north of Celia
should continue this westward turn in its track as the deep-layer
steering flow vector shifts out of the east. In general, a westward
motion is anticipated through the forecast period, though with a
more southward inflection over the next 48 hours, and a more
northward inflection thereafter. The new forecast track is just a
touch north of the various consensus aids (TVCE, HCCA) and is
changed little from the previous forecast.

Greater than 20 kt of easterly shear is forecast to continue
affecting Celia for at least the next 36-48 hours. For this primary
reason, the depression is expected to only maintain its intensity,
and it is quite possible the center may become stretched-out or
reform down-shear to the west where the deep-convective activity
should remain focused. After 48 hours, the easterly shear is
forecast to gradually subside, and Celia could have an opportunity
to intensify. The intensity forecast is essentially a carbon copy of
the previous one, and is in general agreement with the consensus
aids.

Key Messages:

1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track
across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador
through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.

2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and
southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
system, although the chances of direct wind impacts continue to
decrease.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 12.8N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 12.8N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 12.5N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 12.1N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.0N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 12.2N 97.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 12.5N 99.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 181435
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

...CELIA CONTINUES TO TURN MORE WESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 90.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
extreme southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress
of this system, though the changes of direct wind impacts are
decreasing.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 90.0 West. The
depression is now moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7
km/h). A further turn to the west is expected by tonight with a
gradual increase in forward speed by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall are expected to the north of
Tropical Depression Celia across portions of far southern Mexico,
Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4
inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides
across the region.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 181435
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE CHANGES OF DIRECT WIND IMPACTS ARE
DECREASING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 89.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.8N 90.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.5N 91.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.1N 93.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.0N 95.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.2N 97.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.5N 99.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 90.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 180834
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Celia is currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds
with the nearest convection about 60 n mi west-northwest of the
center. Various satellite intensity estimates are between 30-45
kt, but there was no scatterometer data to help show the actual
intensity of the system. Given the uncertainty, the initial
intensity remains 30 kt.

The cyclone is now moving a little faster toward the northwest with
an initial motion of 325/4. A building mid- to upper-level ridge
to the north of Celia should cause a turn to the west or west-
southwest during the next 12-24 h, and a general westward motion
at a faster forward speed is likely to continue through the
remainder of the forecast period. The new forecast track lies near
the various consensus models and is changed little from the
previous forecast.

Celia is in an area of strong easterly vertical wind shear, and the
dynamical models forecast the shear to persist for at least the
next 48-72 h. This is likely to prevent intensification during
this time, and it is possible that the cyclone could degenerate to
a remnant low during the next day or two. After that time, the
shear is forecast to gradually diminish, and this should allow the
system to slowly intensify. The new intensity forecast has only
minor adjustments from the previous forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track
across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador
through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.

2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and
southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
system, although the chances of direct wind impacts are decreasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 12.6N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 12.7N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 12.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 12.2N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 11.9N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 12.0N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 12.4N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 13.5N 102.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 14.5N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 180833
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

...CELIA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUING TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 89.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
extreme southeastern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 89.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) A
turn toward the west is expected by tonight, with a westward motion
continuing through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during for the next several
days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Tropical
Depression Three-E across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala
and El Salvador through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall
may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the
region.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 180833
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0900 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 89.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 89.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 89.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.7N 90.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.5N 91.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.2N 92.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.9N 93.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.0N 95.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.4N 97.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 13.5N 102.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 14.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 89.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 180252
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

The satellite presentation of Celia has degraded significantly this
evening, with all deep convection displaced far to the northwest of
the exposed low-level circulation. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates are at 35 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.
Objective Dvorak estimates are trending downward and are currently
at 31 kt. The initial intensity has been decreased to 30 kt in
favor of the lower estimates.

Celia remains in light and variable steering flow and continues to
drift northward with an estimated motion of 360/2 kt. As a mid-level
ridge builds in from the north in the next day or so, the system is
expected to turn to the west or west-southwest and accelerate. The
NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory with some
decrease in forward speed at days 4 and 5 in agreement with
consensus guidance.

Easterly shear has increased over Celia this evening and is expected
to remain high over the next couple of days. This will limit the
future potential for Celia to intensify in the short-term forecast
and further weakening is even possible. Should the tropical cyclone
survive the relatively hostile environment forecast over the next
several days, shear is expected to decrease and therefore,
intensification could resume by early next week. The latest
intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track
across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador
through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.

2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and
southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system,
although the chances of direct wind impacts are decreasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 12.0N 89.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 12.3N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 12.3N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 12.0N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 11.7N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 11.6N 94.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 11.9N 96.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 12.8N 101.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 13.9N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 180251
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...CELIA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 89.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
extreme southeastern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 89.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow
motion toward the north is expected through tonight, followed by a
turn to the west over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Tropical
Depression Celia across portions of far southern Mexico,
Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4
inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides
across the region.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 180250
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0300 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 89.1W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 89.1W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 89.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.3N 89.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.3N 90.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.0N 91.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.7N 92.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.6N 94.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.9N 96.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 12.8N 101.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N 104.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 89.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 172035
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Overall the satellite presentation of Celia is a bit less
impressive this afternoon, with the deepest convective cloud tops
starting to become increasingly displaced from the low-level
circulation center, which is now partially exposed to the east
of the convection. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates for 1800
UTC were unchanged from SAB (T2.5/35 kt) and TAFB (T4.0/45 kt) from
this morning, though objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS Advanced
Dvorak Technique (ADT) and SATCON have decreased some this
afternoon. Unfortunately this afternoon's scatterometer swaths
missed Celia's small wind field. The initial intensity will
remain 35 kt for this advisory.

The northward drift with Celia continues, with the latest motion
estimated at 360/3 kt. As mentioned over the past day, Celia
remains under light and variable steering flow on the south side of
a broader monsoonal circulation parked over Central America. This
broad low-level circulation should gradually break down as a
pronounced mid-level ridge centered over the southern US amplifies
and extends westward over Mexico. This changing synoptic pattern
should result in Celia turning westward or even west-southwestward
as it also gradually accelerates over the next 2-3 days. While there
remains larger-than-average spread in the track guidance this
afternoon, especially in the across-track direction, this general
evolution is favored. The latest NHC track forecast is just a touch
further south and faster compared to the previous advisory, and now
lies pretty near the HCCA consensus aid.

Celia's intensity may have already peaked earlier this morning, as
easterly vertical wind shear now appears to be displacing the
convection further west which is decreasing in overall intensity as
cloud tops warm. SHIPS guidance suggests the current shear will only
increase further over the next 24 hours, and Celia is no longer
expected to intensify further in the short-term. Assuming the
tropical cyclone survives the relatively hostile environment
forecast over the next several days, shear is expected to decrease
towards the end of the forecast period as it moves towards warmer
ocean waters (28-29 C). Therefore, intensification could resume by
early next week. The latest intensity forecast is a bit lower than
this morning, but still remains above most of the guidance over the
next 48 hours. Thereafter, some gradual intensification is shown,
roughly splitting the difference between the HCCA and IVCN
consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track
across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador
through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.

2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and
southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
While Celia is expected to stay offshore, any motion to the north of
the current forecast track, or increase in size could require a
tropical storm watch or warning for part of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 11.8N 89.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 12.1N 89.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 12.3N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 12.2N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 11.8N 92.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 11.5N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 11.6N 95.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 12.5N 100.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 13.7N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 172035
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...CELIA DRIFTING NORTH WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 89.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
extreme southeastern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 89.4 West. Celia is
moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion toward
the north is expected through tonight, followed by a turn to the
west over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several
days.

Celia is a small storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward only 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Tropical
Storm Celia across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and
El Salvador through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall
may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the
region.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 172035
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
2100 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 89.4W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 89.4W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 89.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.1N 89.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.3N 89.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.2N 90.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.8N 92.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.5N 93.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.6N 95.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 12.5N 100.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 13.7N 104.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 89.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 171457
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

The satellite presentation of the system has improved somewhat this
morning, with a well-defined band in its western semicircle and
some deep convection persisting near and just west of the
estimated center. Subjective intensity estimates are up to 35 kt
from SAB and 45 kt from TAFB, while the most recent objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS were in the 40-45 kt range. There
were also a few wind retrievals from overnight scatterometer
imagery in the 34-36 kt range. The initial intensity has been set to
a possibly conservative 35 kt for this advisory, upgrading Tropical
Depression Three-E to Tropical Storm Celia.

Celia still appears to be drifting generally northward, with the
initial motion estimated at 020/4 kt. As discussed in the prior
advisory, the storm is currently embedded within weak steering
currents as a result of being a small vortex embedded within a much
broader low-level cyclonic circulation centered over Central
America, causing Celia to drift just east of due north over the past
12-18 hours. Possibly due to this small size, the model guidance
does not have a good handle on the current position or structure of
the cyclone. For example, the latest GFS run places Celia about 150
nm west of its actual position. The latest ECMWF run was closer to
the correct position but barely depicts Celia as a distinct entity
within the larger gyre circulation. Even the higher-resolution
regional hurricane models are struggling to depict this cyclone.
Given these difficulties, the short-term track forecast is quite
problematic, with the track guidance spread more than double the
typical climatological value in the 24-48 hour period. Generally the
guidance has shifted further south this cycle, when Celia is
expected to be steered by a building mid-level ridge and perhaps
some low-level flow enhanced by a gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. The track forecast this advisory follows suit, and is
further south than the previous advisory after 36 hours, but still
is not as far south as the reliable consensus aids. Given all the
complicating factors above, this track forecast is of low
confidence.

The substantial uncertainty in the track forecast also applies to
the current intensity forecast with Celia. Easterly vertical wind
shear is already starting to increase over the system, as suggested
by both GFS- and ECMWF- based SHIPS guidance, and is forecast to be
above 20 kt in 24-36 hours. The GFS model, which seems to be best
capturing Celia's current structure, quickly shears off the current
deep convection to the east due to the increasing upper-level flow.
In addition, current sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) under the
cyclone are already marginal (26-27 C) and could cool further over
the next 36 hours given Celia's slow motion. The intensity guidance
this cycle is lower than the previous one for the first 48-72 hours,
and only some slight additional intensification is anticipated
before these negative factors limit Celia's intensity. Towards the
end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to decrease and
SSTs warm, which could provide an opportunity for the storm to began
intensifying again. However, it is also possible the negative
factors indicated above may result in Celia weakening or
degenerating into a remnant low, devoid of organized convection, as
suggested by the ECMWF solution.

Key Messages:

1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track
across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador
through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.

2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and
southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
While Celia is expected to stay offshore, any motion to the north of
the current forecast track, or increase in size could require a
tropical storm watch or warning for part of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 11.6N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 11.8N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 12.1N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 12.2N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 12.2N 90.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 11.9N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 11.7N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 12.2N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 13.0N 102.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 171450
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CELIA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 89.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
extreme southeastern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 89.3 West. Celia is
drifting toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow
motion toward the north is expected through tonight, followed by a
turn to the west over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast today
followed by little change in strength over the weekend.

Celia is a small storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward only 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Tropical
Storm Celia across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and
El Salvador through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall
may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the
region.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 171449
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 89.3W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 89.3W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 89.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.8N 89.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.1N 89.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.2N 90.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.2N 90.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.9N 92.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.7N 94.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 12.2N 98.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 13.0N 102.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 89.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 170837
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that there has not been much change in
the organization of Tropical Depression Three-E since the last
advisory, with the system maintaining a small cluster of convection
near and south of the center. However, scatterometer data and a
GMI microwave overpass showed that the center was a bit to the east
of the previous advisory position. Subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates are in the 30-40 kt range, while the
scatterometer data showed winds of 25-30 kt. Based on this, the
initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 360/4. The depression is
currently in an area of weak steering currents associated with a
large low-level cyclonic gyre over Central America. This should
allow a slow northward motion to continue for the next 12-24 h.
After that, a building mid- to upper-level ridge north of the
cyclone should cause a turn toward the west, with a general
westward motion continuing through the forecast period. The new
forecast track has some adjustments from the previous track in the
first 24-36 h based on the more easterly initial position. By the
end of the forecast period, though, it is similar to the previous
track. The new track is north of the consensus models from 36-72
h, and this part of the forecast may need some southward adjustment
in subsequent advisories.

Conditions appear favorable for the cyclone to strengthen during
the next 12-24 h, and the intensity forecast calls for it to become
a tropical storm during this time. After that, the global models
are in good agreement that moderate to strong easterly shear is
going to develop over the system. The intensity guidance shows
some spread, with some models showing little or no strengthening
from 24-120 h while others forecast gradual strengthening. Since
the cyclone will be moving over increasing sea surface temperatures
in a moist environment with strong upper-level divergence, the
intensity forecast calls for some gradual strengthening in spite of
the shear from 24-120 h.

Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and
southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
While the cyclone is expected to stay offshore, any motion to the
north of the current forecast track, or a system that gets larger
than forecast, would require a tropical storm watch or warning for
part of this area. Heavy rains are likely over portions of Central
America regardless of how close the forecast tropical-storm force
winds get to the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 11.3N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 11.8N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 12.2N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 12.4N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 12.5N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 12.4N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 12.2N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 12.5N 97.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 13.5N 101.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 170836
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 89.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
extreme southeastern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 89.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
motion toward the north is expected through tonight, followed by a
turn to the west over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
ome strengthening is forecast through Saturday, and the depression
is likely to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three-E will produce heavy rains over
the southwestern portions of Guatemala and southern portions of the
Mexican state of Chiapas through Sunday night. Rainfall totals of 3
to 6 inches are expected with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches
possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 170836
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0900 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 89.6W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 89.6W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 89.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.8N 89.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.2N 89.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.4N 90.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.5N 91.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.4N 92.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.2N 93.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 12.5N 97.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 13.5N 101.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 89.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 170410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 17.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 82.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.06.2022 0 15.2N 82.9W 1011 25
1200UTC 17.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.06.2022 0 16.4N 105.9W 977 62
1200UTC 17.06.2022 12 17.6N 108.8W 978 63
0000UTC 18.06.2022 24 18.1N 111.4W 991 41
1200UTC 18.06.2022 36 18.6N 112.9W 997 34
0000UTC 19.06.2022 48 19.2N 114.3W 1000 28
1200UTC 19.06.2022 60 19.0N 115.1W 1002 26
0000UTC 20.06.2022 72 18.7N 116.1W 1004 25
1200UTC 20.06.2022 84 18.4N 117.0W 1005 24
0000UTC 21.06.2022 96 17.8N 118.1W 1006 23
1200UTC 21.06.2022 108 17.8N 119.0W 1008 20
0000UTC 22.06.2022 120 17.9N 119.8W 1009 21
1200UTC 22.06.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.0N 89.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.06.2022 0 10.0N 89.7W 1008 28
1200UTC 17.06.2022 12 10.6N 89.0W 1009 23
0000UTC 18.06.2022 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.0N 107.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.06.2022 144 13.7N 109.4W 1003 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170410

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 170410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 82.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.06.2022 15.2N 82.9W WEAK
12UTC 17.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.06.2022 16.4N 105.9W STRONG
12UTC 17.06.2022 17.6N 108.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.06.2022 18.1N 111.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.06.2022 18.6N 112.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.06.2022 19.2N 114.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.06.2022 19.0N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.06.2022 18.7N 116.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.06.2022 18.4N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.06.2022 17.8N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.06.2022 17.8N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.06.2022 17.9N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.0N 89.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.06.2022 10.0N 89.7W WEAK
12UTC 17.06.2022 10.6N 89.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.0N 107.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.06.2022 13.7N 109.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170410

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 170234
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

There has not been much change in the organization of the
depression over the past several hours. The system is
producing a small area of very deep convection mainly over the
southern portion of the circulation, but banding features are not
very well-defined at this time. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are still below tropical storm strength
so the cyclone's intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.

Center fixes from satellite images suggest only a very slow
movement and the current motion estimate is about 350/2 kt. The
system is in an environment of weak steering currents, as it
remains under the influence of a low-level cyclonic gyre over
Central America. This scenario should continue to prevail for the
next day or so, so a slow motion is forecast through 36 hours.
Thereafter, a mid-tropospheric ridge is forecast by the global
models to build to the north of the tropical cyclone, which should
induce a more westward motion in 2-5 days. The track guidance has
shifted somewhat to the left compared to the previous advisory
package, and the official forecast is shifted a little southwest of
the previous NHC prediction. The simple and corrected consensus
tracks are even farther to the left, so some additional adjustments
may be needed in subsequent forecasts.

The cyclone is in a generally conducive atmospheric environment
with high humidity and fairly low shear. However the presence of
a shallow oceanic mixed layer over the far eastern Pacific could
cause the slow-moving system to be influenced by the upwelling of
cooler waters. Therefore only modest strengthening is anticipated
during the next day or so, as in the previous NHC forecast. The
dynamical guidance indicates an increase in easterly shear in a
couple of days, which is expected to limit strengthening. The
official intensity forecast is near or a little above the simple
and corrected consensus predictions, IVCN and HCCA respectively.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 11.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 11.3N 90.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 11.8N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 12.4N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 12.7N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 12.7N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 12.5N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 12.4N 96.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 13.0N 101.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 170233
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 90.1W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
extreme southeastern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 90.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow
motion toward the north is expected over the next day or so,
followed by a turn to the west over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and the
depression is likely to become a tropical storm by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three-E will produce heavy rains over
the southwestern portions of Guatemala and southern portions of the
Mexican state of Chiapas through Sunday night. Rainfall totals of 3
to 6 inches are expected with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches
possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 170233
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0300 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 90.1W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 90.1W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 90.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.3N 90.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.8N 90.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.4N 90.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.7N 91.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.7N 92.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.5N 93.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 12.4N 96.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 13.0N 101.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 90.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 162056
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

Over the past 12 h, there has been a notable improvement on
satellite of the convective structure with an area of low pressure
NHC has been monitoring to the south of the coasts of El Salvador
and Guatemala. An earlier scatterometer pass showed that the system
had developed a well-defined center, with maximum winds between
25-30 kt. These winds also matched a nearby ship observation in the
northern semicircle of the system. Subsequent visible satellite
imagery depicted convection gradually increasing near the
circulation center, especially in a curved band on its western
side. This improving structure is also seen well on a recently
arriving AMSR2 microwave pass. For these reasons, the system now
meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and the initial intensity
will be set to 30 kt for this advisory.

Three-E has been making a slow cyclonic loop over the past 24 hours,
and now appears to be drifting northward, estimated at 355/2 kt. The
track guidance in the short-term is rather tricky, as the steering
currents near the system appear to be light and variable, with the
largest steering influence expected to be monsoonal flow around a
larger-scale circulation over Central America involving another
disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The track guidance
is rather spread out over the first couple of days with the ECMWF on
the left side and GFS on right side of the track guidance envelope.
After 36 hours, a mid-level ridge is expected to gradually build in
to the north of the cyclone, resulting in a gradual bend westward
and some increase in forward motion. The initial track forecast
currently lies near the center of the track suite, close to the HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).

Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some
intensification over the next day or so, with shear under 10 kt,
high mid-level moisture, and sea-surface temperatures above 27 C.
However, easterly shear is expected to increase after 36 hours, and
the slow motion of the system may leave it susceptible to upwelling
cooler waters under a fairly shallow mixed layer depth of warm
waters in the far East Pacific. The initial intensity forecast only
shows a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 hours and holds the system at
that intensity for the remainder of the period. This intensity
forecast roughly splits the difference between higher
statistical-dynamical guidance (SHIPS) versus lower dynamical and
consensus aids (HMON, IVCN). Given the uncertainty in the short-term
track of this depression, this intensity forecast is of relatively
low confidence.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 10.8N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 11.1N 89.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 11.5N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 12.2N 89.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 12.8N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 12.9N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 12.9N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 12.9N 94.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 12.8N 99.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 162051
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 89.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM SSE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
extreme southeastern Mexico should closely monitor the path of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 89.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow
motion toward the north is expected over the next day or so,
followed by a turn to the west over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and the
depression is likely to become a tropical storm by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three-E could produce locally heavy
rainfall across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southeastern Mexico during the next several days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 162050
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
2100 UTC THU JUN 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PATH OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 89.9W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 89.9W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 89.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 11.1N 89.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.5N 89.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.2N 89.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.8N 90.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.9N 91.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.9N 91.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 12.9N 94.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 12.8N 99.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 89.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>