Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CELIA-22
in Mexico
26 Jun 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CELIA-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 162 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (18 Jun 06:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 162 km/h 0.6 m 621 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 162 km/h 0.6 m 621 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 26 Jun 2022 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 Jun 2022 18:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jun 2022 00:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jun 2022 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 17 Jun 2022 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 17 Jun 2022 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jun 2022 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jun 2022 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 18 Jun 2022 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 18 Jun 2022 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jun 2022 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 Jun 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 19 Jun 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 19 Jun 2022 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 20 Jun 2022 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 20 Jun 2022 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 20 Jun 2022 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 20 Jun 2022 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 21 Jun 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 21 Jun 2022 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 21 Jun 2022 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 21 Jun 2022 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 22 Jun 2022 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 22 Jun 2022 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 22 Jun 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 22 Jun 2022 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 23 Jun 2022 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 23 Jun 2022 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 23 Jun 2022 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 23 Jun 2022 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 24 Jun 2022 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 31 24 Jun 2022 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 32 24 Jun 2022 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 33 24 Jun 2022 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 34 25 Jun 2022 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 35 25 Jun 2022 06:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 36 25 Jun 2022 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 37 25 Jun 2022 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 38 26 Jun 2022 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

621 mm

Up to 62.4 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Jun 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmPanama11,680 
250-500 mmMexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama4,901,038
+
Mexico427,341 
Guatemala16,600 
Nicaragua103,750 
Costa Rica3,749,843 
Panama603,501 
100-250 mmMexico, United States, Cuba, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama57,507,446
+
Mexico23,853,039 
United States554,421 
Cuba14,103 
Belize273,437 
Guatemala14,522,369 
Honduras5,335,308 
Nicaragua5,547,053 
El Salvador6,083,383 
Colombia76,993 
Costa Rica1,057,990 
Panama189,346 
50-100 mmMexico, United States, Cuba, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador38,189,520
+
Mexico25,245,644 
United States4,716,017 
Cuba3,414,384 
Belize87,283 
Guatemala1,775,931 
Honduras2,489,310 
Nicaragua418,769 
El Salvador42,179 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 Jun 2022 18:00 158 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jun 2022 00:00 212 -
- - - - - Costa Rica
Blue 3 17 Jun 2022 06:00 243 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 17 Jun 2022 12:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 17 Jun 2022 18:00 172 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 18 Jun 2022 00:00 202 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 18 Jun 2022 06:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 18 Jun 2022 12:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 18 Jun 2022 18:00 161 -
- - - - - Costa Rica, Panama
Blue 10 19 Jun 2022 00:00 219 Few people
- - - - Mexico, Panama
Blue 11 19 Jun 2022 06:00 96 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 12 19 Jun 2022 12:00 98 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 13 19 Jun 2022 18:00 98 -
- - - - - Mexico, Guatemala, Panama
Blue 14 20 Jun 2022 00:00 69 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 15 20 Jun 2022 06:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 20 Jun 2022 12:00 119 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 20 Jun 2022 18:00 78 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 18 21 Jun 2022 00:00 171 -
- - - - - Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua
Blue 19 21 Jun 2022 06:00 257 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 21 Jun 2022 12:00 224 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 21 Jun 2022 18:00 153 -
- - - - - Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama
Blue 22 22 Jun 2022 00:00 156 -
- - - - - Mexico, Panama
Blue 23 22 Jun 2022 06:00 191 230 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 24 22 Jun 2022 12:00 218 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 22 Jun 2022 18:00 207 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 23 Jun 2022 00:00 100 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 27 23 Jun 2022 06:00 136 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 28 23 Jun 2022 12:00 110 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 23 Jun 2022 18:00 81 -
- - - - - Mexico, Costa Rica
Blue 30 24 Jun 2022 00:00 121 -
- - - - - Costa Rica
Blue 31 24 Jun 2022 06:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 32 24 Jun 2022 12:00 219 - - - - - - -
Blue 33 24 Jun 2022 18:00 93 -
- - - - - United States, Panama
Blue 34 25 Jun 2022 00:00 107 10 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama
Blue 35 25 Jun 2022 06:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 36 25 Jun 2022 12:00 185 - - - - - - -
Blue 37 25 Jun 2022 18:00 124 -
- - - - - Costa Rica, Panama
Blue 38 26 Jun 2022 00:00 316 350 thousand
- - - - Mexico, United States, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Jun 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mMexico308 
0.25 - 0.5 mMexico, Belize, Costa Rica45,718
+
Mexico42,585 
Belize2,860 
Costa Rica272 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Jun 2022 00:00 UTC