Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
15 Feb 2023 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 173 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (15 Feb 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 173 km/h 0.2 m 173 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 205 km/h 0.7 m 1068 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 15 Feb 2023 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Feb 2023 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Feb 2023 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2023 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Feb 2023 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 07 Feb 2023 12:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 07 Feb 2023 18:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 08 Feb 2023 00:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Feb 2023 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 08 Feb 2023 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 08 Feb 2023 18:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 09 Feb 2023 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 09 Feb 2023 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 09 Feb 2023 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 09 Feb 2023 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 10 Feb 2023 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 10 Feb 2023 06:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 10 Feb 2023 12:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 10 Feb 2023 18:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 11 Feb 2023 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 11 Feb 2023 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 11 Feb 2023 12:00 169 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 23 11 Feb 2023 18:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 12 Feb 2023 00:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 12 Feb 2023 06:00 - 1.1 million
Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, East Timor, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Australia, Botswana
GREEN 26 12 Feb 2023 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 12 Feb 2023 18:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 13 Feb 2023 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 13 Feb 2023 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 13 Feb 2023 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 31 13 Feb 2023 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 32 14 Feb 2023 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 33 14 Feb 2023 06:00 - 1.1 million
Tanzania, Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Australia, Namibia, Botswana
GREEN 34 14 Feb 2023 12:00 - 2.5 million
Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, East Timor, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Australia, Madagascar, Botswana
GREEN 35 14 Feb 2023 18:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 36 15 Feb 2023 00:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 37 15 Feb 2023 06:00 176 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

1068 mm

Up to 1.3 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Feb 2023 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmBotswana11 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa1,336,323
+
Indonesia193,123 
Madagascar16,413 
Zimbabwe1,752 
Botswana279,553 
South Africa845,480 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, East Timor, Tanzania, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Lesotho39,886,706
+
Indonesia25,829,626 
Democratic Republic of the Congo11,875 
Zambia1,914,510 
East Timor281 
Tanzania267,760 
Malawi2,773,430 
Mauritius264 
Mozambique1,872,413 
Madagascar643,978 
Zimbabwe1,876,780 
Botswana495,412 
South Africa3,666,953 
Lesotho533,419 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Feb 2023 06:00 195 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 2 06 Feb 2023 12:00 154 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 06 Feb 2023 18:00 190 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Feb 2023 06:00 232 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 07 Feb 2023 12:00 245 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Madagascar
Blue 7 07 Feb 2023 18:00 242 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 08 Feb 2023 00:00 157 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Feb 2023 06:00 307 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 08 Feb 2023 12:00 228 -
- - - - - Tanzania, Madagascar
Blue 11 08 Feb 2023 18:00 249 Few people
- - - - South Africa, Eswatini
Blue 12 09 Feb 2023 00:00 130 Few people
- - - - South Africa
Blue 13 09 Feb 2023 06:00 123 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 14 09 Feb 2023 12:00 209 -
- - - - - Botswana
Blue 15 09 Feb 2023 18:00 239 -
- - - - - Madagascar, South Africa
Blue 16 10 Feb 2023 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 10 Feb 2023 06:00 210 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 10 Feb 2023 12:00 141 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 10 Feb 2023 18:00 215 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe
Blue 20 11 Feb 2023 00:00 155 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 21 11 Feb 2023 06:00 151 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Eswatini, South Africa
Blue 22 11 Feb 2023 12:00 213 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Eswatini, South Africa
Blue 23 11 Feb 2023 18:00 266 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 24 12 Feb 2023 00:00 216 -
- - - - - Malawi
Blue 25 12 Feb 2023 06:00 204 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 26 12 Feb 2023 12:00 181 -
- - - - - Democratic Republic of the Congo
Blue 27 12 Feb 2023 18:00 256 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Zimbabwe
Blue 28 13 Feb 2023 00:00 128 Few people
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 29 13 Feb 2023 06:00 188 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 13 Feb 2023 12:00 204 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 13 Feb 2023 18:00 156 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 32 14 Feb 2023 00:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 33 14 Feb 2023 06:00 135 - - - - - - -
Blue 34 14 Feb 2023 12:00 147 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 35 14 Feb 2023 18:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 36 15 Feb 2023 00:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 37 15 Feb 2023 06:00 263 1.3 million
- - - Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, East Timor, Tanzania, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Catembe, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 15 Feb 2023 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Feb 2023 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Feb 2023 11:00 Catembe Mozambique  0.2
15 Feb 2023 11:00 Joannisse Mozambique  0.2
15 Feb 2023 11:00 Maziba Mozambique  0.2
15 Feb 2023 10:15 Kollan I Australia  0.2
15 Feb 2023 10:45 Bela Vista Mozambique  0.2
15 Feb 2023 10:45 Aiai Mozambique  0.2
15 Feb 2023 10:45 Machavene Mozambique  0.2
15 Feb 2023 10:45 Cimbene Mozambique  0.2
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Pamandali Indonesia  0.2
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Napabalana Indonesia  0.2
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Rumba Indonesia  0.2
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Kolono Indonesia  0.2
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Tioro Indonesia  0.2
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Kembano Indonesia  0.2
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Tampo Indonesia  0.2
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Masara Indonesia  0.2
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Bonea Indonesia  0.2
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Toroboeloe Indonesia  0.2
15 Feb 2023 10:15 Maputo Mozambique  0.2
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Lakara Indonesia  0.2
15 Feb 2023 06:15 Mazumba Mozambique  0.2
15 Feb 2023 06:15 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.2
15 Feb 2023 06:15 Jo Mozambique  0.2
15 Feb 2023 06:15 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Tinangea Indonesia  0.2
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.2
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Ampara Mozambique  0.2
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Manica Mozambique  0.2
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Port Hedland Australia  0.2
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Wedgefield Australia  0.2
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Wansabari Indonesia  0.2
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Nyambati Tanzania  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Salale Tanzania  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:00 Canhamba Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:00 Kualalupak Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:00 Aluhaluh Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:00 Tambakkarangan Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:00 Pagetan Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:00 Tabanio Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:00 Bawahalajung Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Beira Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Roliai Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:30 Bushyvales South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:30 Margate South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:30 Izotsha South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:30 Port Shepstone South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Antunes Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 07:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 07:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 07:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 07:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 07:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:15 Chiloane Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Beula Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:15 Chichocane Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:15 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:15 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:15 China Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:15 Mahoa Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:15 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:15 Uetela Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:30 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:45 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:45 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:45 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:00 Katiet Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:00 Pasapuat Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:00 Simagandjo Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:30 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:15 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:30 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:30 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Condon Australia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:45 Bingue Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:45 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:45 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Pardoo Australia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:00 La Mercy South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Fraser South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Tinley Manor South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Port Edward South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Contra Costa Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Jacob Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Chavanine Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Induna Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Mtwalume South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Sezela South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:00 Chilachap Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:00 Adipala Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:30 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:30 Ajah Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:30 Petanahan Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Isipingo South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Westville South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Bayhead South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Kwa-Mashu South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Durban South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Addington South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 La Lucia South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:45 Airrami Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:45 Seblat Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:45 Pasarseblat Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:30 Gueima Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:15 Mundjungan Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:15 Tasikmadoe Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:15 Popoh Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:30 Daole Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:30 Kasiputih Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:45 Selection Beach South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:30 Sabeugukgung Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:30 Silaoinan Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:30 Seai Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:30 Beleratsok Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:30 Tapuraukat Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:30 Bahatmonga Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:30 Mapoupou Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Naidooville South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Umkomaas South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Amanzimtoti South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Kingsborough South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Glanfield South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:45 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Sindangsari Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Cijulang Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Cikalong Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Pangadaran Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:45 Tama Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:00 Tjikawung Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:00 Aerdjeruk Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:45 Jonja Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Tugela Mouth South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Dokodweni South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Highfield South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:15 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Enkovukeni South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 David Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Laora Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:30 Ipuh Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:30 Ipun Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Mapelana South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:45 Taigebgem Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:45 Siberimanua Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 11:45 Sigoisooinan Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:30 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:30 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Inhampsi Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:00 Park Rynie South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:00 Batakam Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:00 Kandangan Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:15 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Darnall South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Bonds Drift South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:15 Stanger South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Mvuni Tanzania  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Tanga Tanzania  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Kitambula Tanzania  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Petukiza Tanzania  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Bomalandani Tanzania  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:30 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 09:30 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 12:00 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:15 Mtunzini South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 08:45 Mabibi South Africa  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:00 Belana Timor-Leste  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:30 Binangoen Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:00 Bapuju Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:00 Bahaur Indonesia  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:30 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 10:45 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:30 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:30 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:30 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2023 06:30 Mananara Madagascar  0.1