Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
19 Jan 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 130 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (19 Jan 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 130 km/h 1.2 m 111 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 151 km/h 1.5 m 905 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar17,190 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2023 18:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 00:00 130 -
- - - - - Madagascar
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Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

905 mm

Up to 8.4 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar1,030,328 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Mauritius7,373,097
+
Malawi289,209 
Mozambique18,274 
Madagascar6,805,687 
Mauritius259,926 
50-100 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion20,672,040
+
Tanzania352,864 
Zambia173,019 
Malawi6,587,612 
Mozambique2,306,898 
Comoros202,739 
Madagascar9,107,109 
Mayotte240,014 
Zimbabwe720,331 
Mauritius970,309 
Reunion11,140 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 192 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 4 18 Jan 2023 18:00 275 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 00:00 460 8.4 million
- - - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Antsiranana, Andrapengy, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18/01/2023 04:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18/01/2023 04:00 Antsiranana, Andrapengy Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 01:00 Antsiranana, Ampana Kanana Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 03:00 Antsiranana, Ampaha Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 02:00 Toamasina, Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 02:00 Antsiranana, Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 04:00 Antsiranana, Antalaha Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Antsiranana, Amboanio Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Toamasina, Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 17:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 14:00 , Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 , Nosy Komba Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Toamasina, Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 07:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 14:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 , Nosy Mitsio Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Antsiranana, Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Antsiranana, Andranira Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 07:00 Sofala, Machesse Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 14:00 Zambezia, Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 00:00 Mjini-Magharibi (Zanzibar Urban/West), Zanzibar Fumba Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 15:00 , Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 17:00 Zambezia, Mulia Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 19:00 , Maxixe Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 19:00 , Mocambique Mozambique  0.0
20/01/2023 17:00 , Chicoque Mozambique  0.0
20/01/2023 17:00 Tanga, Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.0
20/01/2023 19:00 , Marivate Mozambique  0.0
20/01/2023 03:00 Fianarantsoa, Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 15:00 Fianarantsoa, Manakara Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 03:00 Fianarantsoa, Itenina Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 15:00 Toliara, Beaniky Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 00:00 Toliara, Manambato Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Fianarantsoa, Akondro Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Fianarantsoa, Amboboka Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Fianarantsoa, Manambotra Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Fianarantsoa, Loharano Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 , Gambrani Island La Ferme Mauritius
18/01/2023 00:00 , Ile Amsterdam La Roche Godon French Southern and Antarctic Lands