Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 300300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230130010938
2023013000 08S CHENESO 017 01 130 21 SATL 030
T000 328S 0517E 040 R034 135 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 365S 0573E 040 R034 230 NE QD 140 SE QD 200 SW QD 220 NW QD
T024 417S 0633E 045 R034 300 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 32.8S 51.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.8S 51.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 36.5S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 41.7S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 33.7S 53.1E.
30JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
881 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 22 FEET.
//
0823011306 81S 812E 20
0823011312 78S 811E 25
0823011318 76S 808E 25
0823011400 75S 806E 30
0823011406 75S 803E 25
0823011412 77S 802E 25
0823011418 80S 801E 25
0823011500 84S 800E 25
0823011506 93S 797E 25
0823011512 103S 791E 20
0823011518 111S 777E 20
0823011600 118S 759E 20
0823011606 120S 734E 20
0823011612 120S 700E 20
0823011618 121S 673E 25
0823011700 124S 645E 25
0823011706 127S 621E 30
0823011712 135S 600E 30
0823011718 141S 580E 35
0823011800 141S 562E 40
0823011806 138S 543E 45
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011906 147S 504E 40
0823011912 153S 496E 35
0823011918 159S 488E 35
0823012000 163S 479E 30
0823012006 164S 474E 30
0823012012 166S 467E 25
0823012018 172S 464E 25
0823012100 175S 462E 20
0823012106 182S 462E 20
0823012112 187S 457E 20
0823012118 189S 453E 20
0823012200 190S 444E 25
0823012206 193S 437E 25
0823012212 196S 442E 25
0823012218 200S 445E 25
0823012222 205S 448E 25
0823012300 206S 447E 25
0823012306 205S 444E 25
0823012312 205S 438E 25
0823012318 205S 432E 30
0823012400 201S 427E 35
0823012406 199S 428E 40
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012612 201S 428E 60
0823012612 201S 428E 60
0823012618 206S 423E 55
0823012618 206S 423E 55
0823012700 209S 421E 50
0823012700 209S 421E 50
0823012706 217S 420E 50
0823012706 217S 420E 50
0823012712 226S 417E 50
0823012712 226S 417E 50
0823012718 234S 415E 60
0823012718 234S 415E 60
0823012800 241S 413E 80
0823012800 241S 413E 80
0823012800 241S 413E 80
0823012803 245S 413E 85
0823012803 245S 413E 85
0823012803 245S 413E 85
0823012806 249S 413E 80
0823012806 249S 413E 80
0823012806 249S 413E 80
0823012812 257S 415E 75
0823012812 257S 415E 75
0823012812 257S 415E 75
0823012818 269S 425E 70
0823012818 269S 425E 70
0823012818 269S 425E 70
0823012900 277S 438E 60
0823012900 277S 438E 60
0823012906 288S 451E 55
0823012906 288S 451E 55
0823012912 299S 476E 50
0823012912 299S 476E 50
0823012918 314S 498E 50
0823013000 328S 517E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 32.8S 51.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.8S 51.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 36.5S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 41.7S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 33.7S 53.1E.
30JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
881 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 22 FEET.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 291815
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 037/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 29/01/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CHENESO) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.6 S / 49.6 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 24 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 215 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 340 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/30 AT 06 UTC:
33.2 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 290 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 255 NM NW: 235 NM
34 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 135 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/30 AT 18 UTC:
36.5 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 320 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 295 NM
34 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 170 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE RSMC REUNION ISLAND CONCERNING CHENESO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOLLOWED VIA THE FQIO20 BULLETINS OF
THE METAREA VII AREA.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 291500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230129132623
2023012912 08S CHENESO 016 01 115 24 SATL 025
T000 299S 0476E 050 R050 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 325S 0522E 045 R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 356S 0577E 045 R034 200 NE QD 150 SE QD 260 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 29.9S 47.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9S 47.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 32.5S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 35.6S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 30.6S 48.8E.
29JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
610 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z.//
0823011306 81S 812E 20
0823011312 78S 811E 25
0823011318 76S 808E 25
0823011400 75S 806E 30
0823011406 75S 803E 25
0823011412 77S 802E 25
0823011418 80S 801E 25
0823011500 84S 800E 25
0823011506 93S 797E 25
0823011512 103S 791E 20
0823011518 111S 777E 20
0823011600 118S 759E 20
0823011606 120S 734E 20
0823011612 120S 700E 20
0823011618 121S 673E 25
0823011700 124S 645E 25
0823011706 127S 621E 30
0823011712 135S 600E 30
0823011718 141S 580E 35
0823011800 141S 562E 40
0823011806 138S 543E 45
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011906 147S 504E 40
0823011912 153S 496E 35
0823011918 159S 488E 35
0823012000 163S 479E 30
0823012006 164S 474E 30
0823012012 166S 467E 25
0823012018 172S 464E 25
0823012100 175S 462E 20
0823012106 182S 462E 20
0823012112 187S 457E 20
0823012118 189S 453E 20
0823012200 190S 444E 25
0823012206 193S 437E 25
0823012212 196S 442E 25
0823012218 200S 445E 25
0823012222 205S 448E 25
0823012300 206S 447E 25
0823012306 205S 444E 25
0823012312 205S 438E 25
0823012318 205S 432E 30
0823012400 201S 427E 35
0823012406 199S 428E 40
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012612 201S 428E 60
0823012612 201S 428E 60
0823012618 206S 423E 55
0823012618 206S 423E 55
0823012700 209S 421E 50
0823012700 209S 421E 50
0823012706 217S 420E 50
0823012706 217S 420E 50
0823012712 226S 417E 50
0823012712 226S 417E 50
0823012718 234S 415E 60
0823012718 234S 415E 60
0823012800 241S 413E 80
0823012800 241S 413E 80
0823012800 241S 413E 80
0823012803 245S 413E 85
0823012803 245S 413E 85
0823012803 245S 413E 85
0823012806 249S 413E 80
0823012806 249S 413E 80
0823012806 249S 413E 80
0823012812 257S 415E 75
0823012812 257S 415E 75
0823012812 257S 415E 75
0823012818 269S 425E 70
0823012818 269S 425E 70
0823012818 269S 425E 70
0823012900 277S 438E 60
0823012900 277S 438E 60
0823012906 288S 451E 55
0823012906 288S 451E 55
0823012912 299S 476E 50
0823012912 299S 476E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 29.9S 47.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9S 47.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 32.5S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 35.6S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 30.6S 48.8E.
29JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
610 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 291210
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 29/01/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CHENESO) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.9 S / 47.6 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO MORE THAN 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/30 AT 00 UTC:
32.1 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 225 NM
34 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 140 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/30 AT 12 UTC:
34.9 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 275 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 260 NM NW: 295 NM
34 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 190 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 290613
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 29/01/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CHENESO) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.7 S / 45.2 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO MORE THAN 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 90
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 320 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/29 AT 18 UTC:
31.2 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 290 NM SE: 270 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 205 NM
34 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 125 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/30 AT 06 UTC:
33.6 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 235 NM
34 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 140 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 290300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230129004502
2023012900 08S CHENESO 015 01 130 17 SATL 030
T000 277S 0439E 060 R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 095 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 299S 0472E 055 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 322S 0519E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 190 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 353S 0575E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 250 SW QD 250 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 27.7S 43.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 43.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 29.9S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 32.2S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 35.3S 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 28.2S 44.7E.
29JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
386 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.
//
0823011306 81S 812E 20
0823011312 78S 811E 25
0823011318 76S 808E 25
0823011400 75S 806E 30
0823011406 75S 803E 25
0823011412 77S 802E 25
0823011418 80S 801E 25
0823011500 84S 800E 25
0823011506 93S 797E 25
0823011512 103S 791E 20
0823011518 111S 777E 20
0823011600 118S 759E 20
0823011606 120S 734E 20
0823011612 120S 700E 20
0823011618 121S 673E 25
0823011700 124S 645E 25
0823011706 127S 621E 30
0823011712 135S 600E 30
0823011718 141S 580E 35
0823011800 141S 562E 40
0823011806 138S 543E 45
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011906 147S 504E 40
0823011912 153S 496E 35
0823011918 159S 488E 35
0823012000 163S 479E 30
0823012006 164S 474E 30
0823012012 166S 467E 25
0823012018 172S 464E 25
0823012100 175S 462E 20
0823012106 182S 462E 20
0823012112 187S 457E 20
0823012118 189S 453E 20
0823012200 190S 444E 25
0823012206 193S 437E 25
0823012212 196S 442E 25
0823012218 200S 445E 25
0823012222 205S 448E 25
0823012300 206S 447E 25
0823012306 205S 444E 25
0823012312 205S 438E 25
0823012318 205S 432E 30
0823012400 201S 427E 35
0823012406 199S 428E 40
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012612 201S 428E 60
0823012612 201S 428E 60
0823012618 206S 423E 55
0823012618 206S 423E 55
0823012700 209S 421E 50
0823012700 209S 421E 50
0823012706 217S 420E 50
0823012706 217S 420E 50
0823012712 226S 417E 50
0823012712 226S 417E 50
0823012718 234S 415E 60
0823012718 234S 415E 60
0823012800 241S 413E 80
0823012800 241S 413E 80
0823012800 241S 413E 80
0823012803 245S 413E 85
0823012803 245S 413E 85
0823012803 245S 413E 85
0823012806 249S 413E 80
0823012806 249S 413E 80
0823012806 249S 413E 80
0823012812 257S 415E 75
0823012812 257S 415E 75
0823012812 257S 415E 75
0823012818 266S 425E 70
0823012818 266S 425E 70
0823012818 266S 425E 70
0823012900 277S 439E 60
0823012900 277S 439E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 27.7S 43.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 43.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 29.9S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 32.2S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 35.3S 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 28.2S 44.7E.
29JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
386 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290027
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 38/5/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 29/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.6 S / 44.1 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 610 SO: 350 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SO: 250 NO: 295
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 175
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/01/2023 12 UTC: 29.6 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 535 SO: 315 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SO: 220 NO: 230

24H: 30/01/2023 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 465 SO: 325 NO: 425
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SO: 215 NO: 270

36H: 30/01/2023 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 465 SO: 510 NO: 565
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 325 SO: 205 NO: 370

48H: 31/01/2023 00 UTC: 38.6 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 740 SE: 455 SO: 510 NO: 620
34 KT NE: 380 SE: 345 SO: 240 NO: 360



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, SOUS LA CONTRAINTE D'UN
CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DE 20-25KT DE NORD-OUEST AINSI QUE D'UN
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE, LA CONVECTION AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'EST
ENCORE AFFAIBLIE. LA CONVECTION ASSOCIEE A CHENESO EST ACTUELLEMENT
REJETEE LOIN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, LAISSANT LE CENTRE COMPLETEMENT
EXPOSE. AU VU DES DERNIERES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES (SATCON, ADT) ET DES
ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES, CHENESO EST MAINTENU AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES AUTOUR DE 50KT.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SITUEE AU NORD-EST
AINSI QU'A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ARRIVANT PAR L'OUEST EN
JOURNEE, CHENESO VA CONTINUER D'ACCA LA RER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST
VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES, ATTEIGNANT LA ZONE AMSTERDAM CROZET
KERGUELEN, DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI. CE SCENARIO FAIT
ACTUELLEMENT CONSENSUS PARMI L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES NUMERIQUES.

AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST, CHENESO BENEFICIE ENCORE POUR
QUELQUES HEURES, D'UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE EN ALTITUDE, DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD. TOUTEFOIS DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, CHENESO
CIRCULE SUR DES EAUX DE SURFACE NETTEMENT PLUS FRAICHES. DE PLUS,
ASSOCIE A UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE FAVORISANT
L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC AU COEUR DU SYSTEME, A L'AVANT D'UN PROFOND
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PROGRESSANT PAR L'OUEST, CHENESO VA POURSUIVRE SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT, LE CONDUISANT A PERDRE PEU A PEU SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 36H.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H A 72H:
MADAGASCAR : DES VENTS FORTS (DE FORCE COUP DE VENT) ACCOMPAGNES DE
RAFALES PROCHES DES 100 KM/H ET UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX DE 4 A 6M)
CONTINUENT A SE PRODUIRE LE LONG DES PROVINCES ATSIMO-ANDREFANA ET
ANDROY DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, AVANT DE FAIBLIR NETTEMENT EN
JOURNEE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 290027
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/5/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.6 S / 44.1 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 610 SW: 350 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 175
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/29 12 UTC: 29.6 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 535 SW: 315 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 220 NW: 230

24H: 2023/01/30 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 465 SW: 325 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SW: 215 NW: 270

36H: 2023/01/30 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 465 SW: 510 NW: 565
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 370

48H: 2023/01/31 00 UTC: 38.6 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 740 SE: 455 SW: 510 NW: 620
34 KT NE: 380 SE: 345 SW: 240 NW: 360



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, UNDER THE CONSTRAINT OF A 20-25KT
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER SHEAR AS WELL AS A DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL,
THE CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER HAS WEAKENED FURTHER. THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH CHENESO IS CURRENTLY PUSHED FAR INTO THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, LEAVING THE CENTER COMPLETELY EXPOSED. BASED ON THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (SATCON, ADT) AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES,
CHENESO IS MAINTAINED AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS
AROUND 50KT.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY, CHENESO WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES, REACHING THE
AMSTERDAM CROZET KERGUELEN AREA, ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO IS
CURRENTLY THE CONSENSUS AMONG ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS.

WITH A MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST, CHENESO STILL BENEFITS FOR A
FEW HOURS, FROM A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE IN ALTITUDE, IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, CHENESO WILL CIRCULATE
OVER MUCH COOLER SURFACE WATERS. MOREOVER, ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INCREASE OF THE UPPER SHEAR FAVORING THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE
HEART OF THE SYSTEM, IN FRONT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM
THE WEST, CHENESO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, LEADING IT TO LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LITTLE BY LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 36H.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 48H TO 72H:
MADAGASCAR : STRONG WINDS (GALE FORCE) WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 100 KM/H
AND DANGEROUS SEAS (4 TO 6M HIGH WAVES) CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA AND ANDROY PROVINCES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 290003
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 29/01/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.6 S / 44.1 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 135 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 145 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 185 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 190
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 255 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 330 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/29 AT 12 UTC:
29.6 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 200 NM
34 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 125 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/30 AT 00 UTC:
31.9 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 NM SE: 250 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 230 NM
34 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 145 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 281836
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 37/5/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 28/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.5 S / 42.1 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 620 SO: 315 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SO: 155 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 80 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/01/2023 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 620 SO: 315 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SO: 155 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 85 NO: 85

24H: 29/01/2023 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 500 SO: 270 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SO: 155 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45

36H: 30/01/2023 06 UTC: 32.7 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 435 SO: 315 NO: 425
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SO: 195 NO: 220

48H: 30/01/2023 18 UTC: 35.2 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 465 SO: 295 NO: 435
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 335 SO: 150 NO: 195



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=4.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, SOUS LA CONTRAINTE D'UN
CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DE 20-25KT DE NORD-OUEST, LA CONVECTION
PROCHE DU CENTRE DE CHENESO S'EST CONDIDERABLEMENT AFFAIBLIE ET LA
STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE EST DAVANTAGE DEVENUE UNE STRUCTURE EN BANDE
SPIRALEE. BIEN QUE PARTIELLE, L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE 1514Z
MONTRE UNE ABSENCE DE CONVECTION DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST ET UNE
CONVECTION LEGEREMENT PLUS MARQUEE REJETEE AU SUD LOIN DE CENTRE. AU
VU DES DERNIERES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES (SATCON, ADT) ET DES
ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES, CHENESO EST RETROGRADE AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS AUTOUR DE 55KT.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SITUEE AU NORD-EST
PUIS DANS UN SECOND TEMPS A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ARRIVANT
PAR L'OUEST EN FIN DE WEEK-END , CHENESO VA PROGRESSIVEMENT ACCA LA
RER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES, ATTEIGNANT
LA ZONE AMSTERDAM CROZET KERGUELEN, DANS LA SOIRA E DE DIMANCHE OU
DURANT LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI. CE SCENARIO FAIT ACTUELLEMENT
CONSENSUS PARMI L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES NUMERIQUES.

AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST, CHENESO BENEFICIE ENCORE POUR
QUELQUES HEURES, D'UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AINSI QUE D'UNE TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE EN ALTITUDE, DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. TOUTEFOIS A
PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, CHENESO DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DES EAUX DE SURFACE
NETTEMENT PLUS FRAICHES, ASSOCIA ES A UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
D'ALTITUDE FAVORISANT L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC AU COEUR DU SYSTEME, A
L'AVANT D'UN PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PROGRESSANT PAR L'OUEST.
CHENESO VA DONC SUBIR UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF, LE CONDUISANT A
PERDRE PEU A PEU SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN TOUT DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H A 72H:
MADAGASCAR:
- DES VENTS FORTS (DE FORCE COUP DE VENT) ACCOMPAGNES DE RAFALES
PROCHES DES 100 KM/H ET UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX DE 4 A 6M)
CONTINUENT A SE PRODUIRE LE LONG DES PROVINCES ATSIMO-ANDREFANA ET
ANDROY DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, AVANT DE FAIBLIR NETTEMENT DEMAIN
EN JOURNEE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 281836
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/5/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 42.1 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 620 SW: 315 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SW: 155 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 80 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/29 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 620 SW: 315 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SW: 155 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 85 NW: 85

24H: 2023/01/29 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 500 SW: 270 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SW: 155 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45

36H: 2023/01/30 06 UTC: 32.7 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 435 SW: 315 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SW: 195 NW: 220

48H: 2023/01/30 18 UTC: 35.2 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 465 SW: 295 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 335 SW: 150 NW: 195



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, UNDER THE CONSTRAINT OF A 20-25KT
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER SHEAR, THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CHENESO
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE OF
A SPIRAL BAND STRUCTURE. ALTHOUGH PARTIAL, THE 1514Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS AN ABSENCE OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND
SLIGHTLY MORE CONVECTION REJECTED TO THE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
ACCORDING TO THE LAST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (SATCON, ADT) AND SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES, CHENESO IS RETROGRADE TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH
WINDS AROUND 55KT.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN IN A SECOND TIME IN FRONT OF A HIGH TROUGH
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, CHENESO WILL
PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES, REACHING THE AMSTERDAM CROZET KERGUELEN AREA, ON
SUNDAY EVENING OR DURING THE NIGHT OF SUNDAY TO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO
IS CURRENTLY THE CONSENSUS AMONG ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS.

WITH A MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST, CHENESO STILL BENEFITS FOR A
FEW HOURS, FROM A GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS WELL AS A VERY GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE , IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER FROM SUNDAY,
CHENESO SHOULD ENCOUNTER MUCH COOLER SURFACE WATERS, ASSOCIATED WITH
AN INCREASE IN UPPER WINDSHEAR FAVORING THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN
THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM, AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING
FROM THE WEST. CHENESO WILL THUS UNDERGO A PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING,
LEADING IT TO LOSE GRADUALLY ITS TROPICAL FEATURES AT THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 48H TO 72H:
MADAGASCAR:
- STRONG WINDS (GALE FORCE) ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS CLOSE TO 100 KM/H
AND A DANGEROUS SEA (4 TO 6M WAVES) CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE
PROVINCES OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA AND ANDROY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
BEFORE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW DURING THE DAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 281823
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 28/01/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 42.1 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 155 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 215 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 215 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 335 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/29 AT 06 UTC:
28.9 S / 44.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 335 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/29 AT 18 UTC:
30.7 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 NM SE: 270 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 200 NM
34 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 130 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 281500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230128132020
2023012812 08S CHENESO 014 01 165 08 SATL 040
T000 257S 0415E 075 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 125 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 277S 0434E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 301S 0467E 060 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 321S 0512E 050 R050 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 349S 0568E 045 R034 200 NE QD 150 SE QD 230 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 25.7S 41.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 41.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.7S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 30.1S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 32.1S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 34.9S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 42.0E.
28JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
222 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.//
0823011306 81S 812E 20
0823011312 78S 811E 25
0823011318 76S 808E 25
0823011400 75S 806E 30
0823011406 75S 803E 25
0823011412 77S 802E 25
0823011418 80S 801E 25
0823011500 84S 800E 25
0823011506 93S 797E 25
0823011512 103S 791E 20
0823011518 111S 777E 20
0823011600 118S 759E 20
0823011606 120S 734E 20
0823011612 120S 700E 20
0823011618 121S 673E 25
0823011700 124S 645E 25
0823011706 127S 621E 30
0823011712 135S 600E 30
0823011718 141S 580E 35
0823011800 141S 562E 40
0823011806 138S 543E 45
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011906 147S 504E 40
0823011912 153S 496E 35
0823011918 159S 488E 35
0823012000 163S 479E 30
0823012006 164S 474E 30
0823012012 166S 467E 25
0823012018 172S 464E 25
0823012100 175S 462E 20
0823012106 182S 462E 20
0823012112 187S 457E 20
0823012118 189S 453E 20
0823012200 190S 444E 25
0823012206 193S 437E 25
0823012212 196S 442E 25
0823012218 200S 445E 25
0823012222 205S 448E 25
0823012300 206S 447E 25
0823012306 205S 444E 25
0823012312 205S 438E 25
0823012318 205S 432E 30
0823012400 201S 427E 35
0823012406 199S 428E 40
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012612 201S 428E 60
0823012612 201S 428E 60
0823012618 206S 423E 55
0823012618 206S 423E 55
0823012700 209S 421E 50
0823012700 209S 421E 50
0823012706 217S 420E 50
0823012706 217S 420E 50
0823012712 226S 417E 50
0823012712 226S 417E 50
0823012718 234S 415E 60
0823012718 234S 415E 60
0823012800 241S 413E 80
0823012800 241S 413E 80
0823012800 241S 413E 80
0823012803 245S 413E 85
0823012803 245S 413E 85
0823012803 245S 413E 85
0823012806 249S 413E 80
0823012806 249S 413E 80
0823012806 249S 413E 80
0823012812 257S 415E 75
0823012812 257S 415E 75
0823012812 257S 415E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 25.7S 41.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 41.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.7S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 30.1S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 32.1S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 34.9S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 42.0E.
28JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
222 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 281243
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/5/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 28/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.7 S / 41.9 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 610 SO: 370 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SO: 350 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 160 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 110 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/01/2023 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 555 SO: 295 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 345 SO: 250 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 45

24H: 29/01/2023 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 520 SO: 315 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SO: 250 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 100

36H: 30/01/2023 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 435 SO: 305 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SO: 195 NO: 240

48H: 30/01/2023 12 UTC: 34.2 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 425 SO: 535 NO: 520
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 305

60H: 31/01/2023 00 UTC: 38.1 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 685 SE: 435 SO: 470 NO: 535
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 315

72H: 31/01/2023 12 UTC: 44.3 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 965 SE: 480 SO: 470 NO: 510
34 KT NE: 500 SE: 370 SO: 305 NO: 350

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
CHENESO A PEU EVOLUE. CHENESO PRESENTE TOUJOURS UNE CONFIGURATION A
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE (CDO), AVEC DES TEMPERATURES DE SOMMETS
NUAGEUX QUI SONT RESTEES STABLES, ET UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES QUI
EST RESTE DISSIMULE SOUS LA MASSE. BIEN QUE BENEFICIANT D'UNE
EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, LE SYSTEME ENDURE ENCORE UNE
CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE MODEREE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST, COMPENSEE EN
PARTIE PAR SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST. LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE
AMSR2 DE 1037Z MONTRE D'AILLEURS UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF CENTRAL ERRODE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE RESTE ENCORE, POUR
PEU DE TEMPS, AU STADE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, AU VU DES DERNIA
RES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES (SATCON, ADT) ET DES ESTIMATIONS
SUBJECTIVES.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SITUEE AU NORD-EST
PUIS DANS UN SECOND TEMPS A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ARRIVANT
PAR L'OUEST EN FIN DE WEEK-END , CHENESO VA PROGRESSIVEMENT ACCA LA
RER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES, ATTEIGNANT
LA ZONE AMSTERDAM CROZET KERGUELEN, DANS LA SOIRA E DE DIMANCHE OU
DURANT LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI . CE SCENARIO FAIT ACTUELLEMENT
CONSENSUS PARMI L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES NUMERIQUES.

AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST, CHENESO BENEFICIE ENCORE POUR
QUELQUES HEURES, D'UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AINSI QUE D'UNE TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE EN ALTITUDE, DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. TOUTEFOIS A
PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, CHENESO DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DES EAUX DE SURFACE
NETTEMENT PLUS FRAICHES, ASSOCIA ES A UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
D'ALTITUDE FAVORISANT L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC AU COEUR DU SYSTEME, A
L'AVANT D'UN PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PROGRESSANT PAR L'OUEST.
CHENESO VA DONC SUBIR UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF, LE CONDUISANT A
PERDRE PEU A PEU SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN TOUT DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H A 72H:
MADAGASCAR:
- A MESURE DE L'ELOIGNEMENT DU SYSTEME, DES PRECIPITATIONS PLUS
MODEREES VONT CONCERNER, LA PROVINCE D'ATSIMO-ANDREFANA ET PLUS
PARTICULIA REMENT LA REGION ENTRE MOROMBE ET TULEAR AVEC DES CUMULS
PROCHES DE 50MM.
- DES VENTS FORTS (DE FORCE COUP DE VENT) ACCOMPAGNES DE RAFALES
PROCHES DES 100 KM/H ET UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX DE 4 A 6M)
CONTINUENT A SE PRODUIRE LE LONG DES PROVINCES ATSIMO-ANDREFANA ET
ANDROY JUSQU'A DIMANCHE APRES-MIDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 281243
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/5/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 41.9 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 610 SW: 370 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SW: 350 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 160 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 110 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/29 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 555 SW: 295 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 45

24H: 2023/01/29 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 520 SW: 315 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 100

36H: 2023/01/30 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 435 SW: 305 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 240

48H: 2023/01/30 12 UTC: 34.2 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 425 SW: 535 NW: 520
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 305

60H: 2023/01/31 00 UTC: 38.1 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 685 SE: 435 SW: 470 NW: 535
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 315

72H: 2023/01/31 12 UTC: 44.3 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 965 SE: 480 SW: 470 NW: 510
34 KT NE: 500 SE: 370 SW: 305 NW: 350

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE CHENESO CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE. CHENESO STILL HAS A (CDO) PATTERN, WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE REMAINED STABLE, AND A LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAT
HAS REMAINED HIDDEN BENEATH THE MASS. ALTHOUGH BENEFITING FROM AN
EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT, THE SYSTEM STILL ENDURES A MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, PARTLY COMPENSATED BY ITS MOVEMENT TOWARDS
THE SOUTH-EAST. THE 1037Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A CENTRAL
CONVECTIVE RING ERODED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS, FOR A SHORT TIME, AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE, CONSIDERING THE LAST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (SATCON,
ADT) AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN IN A SECOND TIME IN FRONT OF A HIGH TROUGH
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, CHENESO WILL
PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES, REACHING THE AMSTERDAM CROZET KERGUELEN AREA, ON
SUNDAY EVENING OR DURING THE NIGHT OF SUNDAY TO MONDAY . THIS
SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY THE CONSENSUS AMONG ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS.

WITH A MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST, CHENESO STILL BENEFITS FOR A
FEW HOURS, FROM A GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS WELL AS A VERY GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE , IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER FROM SUNDAY,
CHENESO SHOULD ENCOUNTER MUCH COOLER SURFACE WATERS, ASSOCIATED WITH
AN INCREASE IN UPPER WINDSHEAR FAVORING THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN
THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM, AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING
FROM THE WEST. CHENESO WILL THUS UNDERGO A PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING,
LEADING IT TO LOSE GRADUALLY ITS TROPICAL FEATURES AT THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 48H TO 72H:
MADAGASCAR:
- AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY, MORE MODERATE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE
PROVINCE OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA AND MORE PARTICULARLY THE REGION BETWEEN
MOROMBE AND TULEAR WITH ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO 50MM.
- STRONG WINDS (GALE FORCE) ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS CLOSE TO 100 KM/H
AND A DANGEROUS SEA (4 TO 6M WAVES) CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE
PROVINCES OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA AND ANDROY UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 281227
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 28/01/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CHENESO) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 41.9 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 155 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 260 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 330 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/29 AT 00 UTC:
27.8 S / 43.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 265 NM SE: 300 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/29 AT 12 UTC:
30.0 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 275 NM SE: 280 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 190 NM
34 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 125 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280650
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/5/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 28/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.8 S / 41.6 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SO: 315 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/01/2023 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 585 SO: 315 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75

24H: 29/01/2023 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 480 SO: 335 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SO: 250 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 100 NO: 45

36H: 29/01/2023 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 435 SO: 325 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SO: 205 NO: 250
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 100 NO: 45

48H: 30/01/2023 06 UTC: 32.7 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 380 SO: 390 NO: 435
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 270
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 45

60H: 30/01/2023 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SO: 220 NO: 220

72H: 31/01/2023 06 UTC: 40.2 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 715 SE: 325 SO: 295 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 295 SO: 195 NO: 270

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

AU COURS DE LA NUIT, LA CONFIGURATION S'EST DEGRADEE, PASSANT D'UNE
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL A UNE CONFIGURATION A CENTRE NOYE DANS LA
MASSE, AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT GRADUELLEMENT RECHAUFFES.
CETTE DEGRADATION POURRAIT S'EXPLIQUER PAR LA CONTRAINTE MODA REE DE
NORD-NORD-OUEST QUI OPERE ACTUELLEMENT SELON LES DERNIERES DONNEES DU
CIMSS (PRESENCE D'UN ARC DE CIRRUS DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST SUR
L'IMAGERIE VAPEUR D'EAU). EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNA ES MICRO-ONDES
RECENTES, IL EST DIFFICILE DE JUGER DU DEGRE D'EFFICACITA DU
CISAILLEMENT SUR LE COEUR CONVECTIF DE CHENESO, MEME SI L'IMAGE SSMIS
F-18 DE 0049Z SUGGERE FORTEMENT UNE ERROSION DE L'ANNEAU CONVECTIF
CENTRAL DANS SA PARTIE NORD-OUEST. EN DEPIT DES SIGNES
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT VISIBLES A L' IMAGERIE, L'INTENSITE EST LAISSEE AU
STADE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, PAR INERTIE ET EN ACCORD AVEC LES
DERNIERES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES ET LA DERNIERE PASSE RSAT2 DE 0242Z
QUI PRESENTE ENCORE DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 75KT (10 MINUTES).

AUJOURD'HUI SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SITUEE
AU NORD-EST PUIS DANS UN SECOND TEMPS A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE ARRIVANT PAR L'OUEST , CHENESO VA CONFIRMER UN VIRAGE PLUS
NET EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LES
MOYENNES LATITUDES. CE SCENARIO FAIT CONSENSUS DANS L'ENSEMBLE DES
MODELES NUMERIQUES SANS DISPERSION PARTICULIERE.

AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD, CHENESO BENEFICIE ENCORE POUR
QUELQUES HEURES D'UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AINSI QU'UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE EN ALTITUDE, DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. TOUTEFOIS A PARTIR
DE DIMANCHE, CHENESO DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DES EAUX DE SURFACE NETTEMENT
PLUS FRAICHES, ASSOCIA ES A UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE
FAVORISANT L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC AU COEUR DU SYSTEME, A L'AVANT D'UN
PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PROGRESSANT PAR L'OUEST. CHENESO VA DONC
SUBIR UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF, LE CONDUISANT A PERDRE PEU A PEU
SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES A PARTIR DE LA FIN DE CE WEEK-END,
VOIRE EN TOUT DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48 A 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- A MESURE DE L'ELOIGNEMENT DU SYSTEME LES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS VONT
DESORMAIS CONCERNER D'ICI DIMANCHE MATIN, LA COTE SUD-OUEST AU SUD
D'UNE LIGNE MOROMBE / AMBOVOMBE, AVEC UN MAXIMUM D'ACTIVITE QUI
DEVRAIT ETRE CIRCONSCRITE AU LARGE DES COTES. SUR LE WEEK-END, LE
MAXIMUM DE PRECIPITATION DEVRAIT CONCERNER LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE
D'ANTSIMO-ANDREFANA, AVEC DES CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 150 MM.

- DES RAFALES PROCHES DES 100 KM/H ET UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX DE 4
A 6M) CONTINUENT A SE PRODUIRE LE LONG DES PROVINCES
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA ET ANDROY JUSQU'A DIMANCHE INCLUS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/5/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 41.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/28 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 585 SW: 315 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75

24H: 2023/01/29 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 480 SW: 335 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 45

36H: 2023/01/29 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 435 SW: 325 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 205 NW: 250
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 45

48H: 2023/01/30 06 UTC: 32.7 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 380 SW: 390 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 270
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 45

60H: 2023/01/30 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 220

72H: 2023/01/31 06 UTC: 40.2 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 715 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 270

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

OVER NIGHT, THE CHENESO CLOUD PATTERN DEGRADED FROM AN EYE PATTERN TO
AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN, WITH CLOUD TOPS THAT GRADUALLY WARMED UP.
THIS DEGRADATION COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
CONSTRAINT ALOFT THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
CIMSS DATA (PRESENCE OF AN ARC OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY). IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA, IT IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE THE DEGREE OF EFFICIENCY OF
THE SHEAR ON THE CONVECTIVE CORE OF CHENESO, EVEN IF THE SSMIS F-18
IMAGE OF 0049Z STRONGLY SUGGESTS AN EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE
RING IN ITS NORTHWESTERLY PART. IN SPITE OF THE SIGNS OF WEAKENING
VISIBLE IN THE IMAGERY, THE INTENSITY IS LEFT AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE, BY INERTIA AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE AND THE LAST 0242Z RSAT2 PASS WHICH STILL PRESENTS WINDS OF
ABOUT 75KT (10 MINUTES).

TODAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THEN IN A
SECOND TIME IN FRONT OF A HIGH LEVEL TROUGH COMING FROM THE WEST,
CHENESO WILL CONFIRM A CLEARER TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST BY
ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. THIS SCENARIO
IS THE CONSENSUS OF ALL NUMERICAL MODELS WITHOUT ANY PARTICULAR
DISPERSION.

WITH A SOUTHWARD TRACK, CHENESO STILL BENEFITS FOR A FEW HOURS FROM A
GOOD OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL AS WELL AS A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE,
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER FROM SUNDAY, CHENESO SHOULD
ENCOUNTER MUCH COOLER SURFACE WATERS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN
UPPER SHEAR FAVORING THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE HEART OF THE
SYSTEM, IN FRONT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE WEST.
CHENESO WILL THUS UNDERGO A PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING, LEADING IT TO LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LITTLE BY LITTLE FROM THE END OF THIS
WEEKEND, OR EVEN AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.

MADAGASCAR:
- AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY, HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL NOW CONCERN, BY
SUNDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHWEST COAST SOUTH OF A LINE MOROMBE /
AMBOVOMBE, WITH A MAXIMUM OF ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
COAST. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONCERN THE
NORTH OF THE PROVINCE OF ANTSIMO-ANDREFANA, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF
ABOUT 150 MM.

- GUSTS CLOSE TO 100 KM/H AND A DANGEROUS SEA (4 TO 6M HIGH) CONTINUE
TO OCCUR ALONG THE PROVINCES OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA AND ANDROY UNTIL
SUNDAY INCLUDED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 280622
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 28/01/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CHENESO) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 41.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/28 AT 18 UTC:
26.6 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 315 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/29 AT 06 UTC:
28.8 S / 44.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 235 NM SE: 260 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 170 NM
34 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 110 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 280300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230128012904
2023012800 08S CHENESO 013 01 185 09 SATL 030
T000 241S 0415E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD 115 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 257S 0422E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 276S 0440E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 298S 0469E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 316S 0511E 045 R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 382S 0622E 045 R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 24.1S 41.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S 41.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.7S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.6S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 29.8S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 31.6S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 38.2S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 41.7E.
28JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z.
//
0823011306 81S 812E 20
0823011312 78S 811E 25
0823011318 76S 808E 25
0823011400 75S 806E 30
0823011406 75S 803E 25
0823011412 77S 802E 25
0823011418 80S 801E 25
0823011500 84S 800E 25
0823011506 93S 797E 25
0823011512 103S 791E 20
0823011518 111S 777E 20
0823011600 118S 759E 20
0823011606 120S 734E 20
0823011612 120S 700E 20
0823011618 121S 673E 25
0823011700 124S 645E 25
0823011706 127S 621E 30
0823011712 135S 600E 30
0823011718 141S 580E 35
0823011800 141S 562E 40
0823011806 138S 543E 45
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011906 147S 504E 40
0823011912 153S 496E 35
0823011918 159S 488E 35
0823012000 163S 479E 30
0823012006 164S 474E 30
0823012012 166S 467E 25
0823012018 172S 464E 25
0823012100 175S 462E 20
0823012106 182S 462E 20
0823012112 187S 457E 20
0823012118 189S 453E 20
0823012200 190S 444E 25
0823012206 193S 437E 25
0823012212 196S 442E 25
0823012218 200S 445E 25
0823012222 205S 448E 25
0823012300 206S 447E 25
0823012306 205S 444E 25
0823012312 205S 438E 25
0823012318 205S 432E 30
0823012400 201S 427E 35
0823012406 199S 428E 40
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012612 201S 428E 60
0823012612 201S 428E 60
0823012618 206S 423E 55
0823012618 206S 423E 55
0823012700 209S 421E 50
0823012700 209S 421E 50
0823012706 217S 420E 50
0823012706 217S 420E 50
0823012712 226S 417E 50
0823012712 226S 417E 50
0823012718 232S 416E 60
0823012718 232S 416E 60
0823012800 241S 415E 70
0823012800 241S 415E 70
0823012800 241S 415E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 24.1S 41.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S 41.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.7S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.6S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 29.8S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 31.6S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 38.2S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 41.7E.
28JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280053
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/5/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.2 S / 41.2 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SO: 315 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/01/2023 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 535 SO: 270 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 345 SO: 230 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 110 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 29/01/2023 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 530 SO: 345 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 110 NO: 95

36H: 29/01/2023 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 445 SO: 295 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SO: 220 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 100 NO: 45

48H: 30/01/2023 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 345 SO: 390 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 270

60H: 30/01/2023 12 UTC: 34.0 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 325 SO: 610 NO: 500
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 270 NO: 285

72H: 31/01/2023 00 UTC: 37.7 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 335 SO: 345 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SO: 175 NO: 205

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION DE CHENESO A
CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER SOUS LA FORME D'UN CDO ASSOCIE A UN POINT
CHAUD EN IMAGERIE IR. AU VU DES DERNIERES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES
(AUTOUR DE 4.5) ET DE L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE AMSR2 DE 2229Z QUI MONTRE UN
NET OEIL EN 89GHZ, LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EST JUGE ATTEINT.
L'INTENSITE EST POUR L'INSTANT FIXE A 65KT. PAR AILLEURS UN ARC DE
CIRRUS EST VISIBLE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST ET SEMBLE CONFIRMER LA
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND (15KT SELON LE CIMSS)

AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS LE SUD-EST DE
CHENESO, LE SYSTEME EST TOUJOURS SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN FAIBLE FLUX
DIRECTEUR L'ORIENTANT VERS LE SUD. AUJOURD'HUI SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST ET A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE, CHENESO DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN VIRAGE PROGRESSIF VERS LE
SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. CE SCENARIO FAIT
CONSENSUS DANS L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES NUMERIQUES SANS DISPERSION
PARTICULIERE.

EN REPRENANT UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD, CHENESO A RETROUVE DES
CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A SON INTENSIFICATION AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE DA ALTITUDE COTE SUD. CEPENDANT DURANT LES
PROCHAINES HEURES, A L'AVANT DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, LE CISAILLEMENT
DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT SE RENFORCER, FAVORISANT
L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC. MEME SI L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT
LIMITER L'INFLUENCE DU CISAILLEMENT, LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
DEVRAIT INEXORABLEMENT CONDUIRE A UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME
ET A SON EXTRATROPICALISATION EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- LES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS VONT DESORMAIS SURTOUT SE CONCENTRER AU
SUD D'UNE LIGNE MORONDAVA-VANGAINDRANO, NOTAMMENT SUR LA REGION AU
NORD DE TULEAR OU L'ON POURRAIT DEPASSER LES 100 A 150MM D'ICI
DIMANCHE.

- DES RAFALES PROCHES DES 100 KM/H ET UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX DE 4
A 6M) CONTINUENT A SE PRODUIRE LE LONG DE LA COTE MALGACHE DU CAP
SAINT VINCENT AU CAP SAINTE MARIE JUSQU'A DIMANCHE.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX PROCHES DE 4M) EST ATTENDUE SUR LA
REGION D'INHHAMBANE AUJOURDA HUI=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280053
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/5/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2 S / 41.2 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/28 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 535 SW: 270 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 345 SW: 230 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2023/01/29 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 530 SW: 345 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 95

36H: 2023/01/29 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 445 SW: 295 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 220 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 45

48H: 2023/01/30 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 345 SW: 390 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 270

60H: 2023/01/30 12 UTC: 34.0 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 325 SW: 610 NW: 500
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 285

72H: 2023/01/31 00 UTC: 37.7 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 335 SW: 345 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 205

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CHENESO'S PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
WITH A CDO ASSOCIATED WITH A HOT SPOT IN IR IMAGERY. ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DORAK ANALYSIS (AROUND 4.5) AND TO THE 2229Z AMSR2
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A CLEAR EYE IN 89GHZ, THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE IS CONSIDERED TO BE REACHED. THE INTENSITY IS FOR THE
MOMENT SET AT 65KT. MOREOVER, AN ARC OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IS VISIBLE IN
THE NORTHWESTERLY QUADRANT AND SEEMS TO CONFIRM THE INCREASE OF THE
DEEP SHEAR (15KT ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS)

WITH THE SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF CHENESO,
THE SYSTEM UNDERGO A WEAK STEERING FLOW FAVORING A SOUTHWARD TRACK.
FROM TODAY ONWARDS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO ITS NORTH-EAST AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, CHENESO SHOULD MAKE A
PROGRESSIVE TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES. THERE IS A CONSENSUS AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ON
THIS SCENARIO WITH LITTLE SPREAD.

BY RESUMING A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT, CHENESO FOUND A FAVORABLE
ENVRIONMENT TO INTENSIFIY WITH THE VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE. HOWEVER IN THE NEXT HOURS , AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH,
THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN FAVORING DRY
AIR INTRUSION. EVEN IF THE ACCELERATION SHOULD LIMIT THE CONSEQUENCES
THE DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING
AND ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE REGIONS SOUTH OF A
MORONDAVA-VANGAINDRANO LINE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TULEAR WHERE
RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 100 MM TO 150 MM UP TO SUNDAY.

- GUSTS CLOSE TO 100 KM/H AND DANGEROUS SEAS (4 TO 6M WAVES) ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE MALAGASY COAST FROM CAPE SAINT VINCENT TO CAPE
SAINTE MARIE UNTIL SUNDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- DANGEROUS SEAS (WAVES CLOSE TO 4M) ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF
INHHAMBANE TODAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 280033
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 28/01/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CHENESO) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2 S / 41.2 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/28 AT 12 UTC:
25.8 S / 42.1 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/29 AT 00 UTC:
27.5 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 225 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271845
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/5/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.2 S / 41.5 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 39 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/01/2023 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 425 SO: 325 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 28/01/2023 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 575 SO: 325 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SO: 240 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 29/01/2023 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 490 SO: 345 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SO: 250 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 45

48H: 29/01/2023 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 470 SO: 315 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SO: 205 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 45

60H: 30/01/2023 06 UTC: 33.0 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 390 SO: 350 NO: 425
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 250

72H: 30/01/2023 18 UTC: 35.7 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 470
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 250

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
NETTEMENT RENFORCEE A PROXIMITE DU COEUR DE CHENESO SOUS LA FORME
D'UNE BANDE INCURVEE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (SSMIS DE
1334Z) CONFIRME EGALEMENT CETTE AMELIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE DU
COEUR. EN ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES,
L'INTENSITE EST REHAUSSEE A 55KT.

AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS LE SUD-EST DE
CHENESO, LE SYSTEME EST TOUJOURS SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN FAIBLE FLUX
DIRECTEUR L'ORIENTANT VERS LE SUD. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST ET A L'AVANT
D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, CHENESO DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN VIRAGE
PROGRESSIF VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.
CE SCENARIO FAIT CONSENSUS DANS L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES NUMERIQUES
SANS DISPERSION PARTICULIERE.

EN REPRENANT UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD, CHENESO RETROUVE DES
CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A SON INTENSIFICATION AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE DA ALTITUDE COTE SUD. IL POURRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H. A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI, A L'AVANT DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT SE RENFORCER, FAVORISANT
L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC. MEME SI L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT
LIMITER L'INFLUENCE DU CISAILLEMENT, LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
DEVRAIT INEXORABLEMENT CONDUIRE A UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME
ET A SON EXTRATROPICALISATION EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- LES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS VONT DESORMAIS SURTOUT SE CONCENTRER AU
SUD D'UNE LIGNE MORONDAVA-VANGAINDRANO, NOTAMMENT SUR LA REGION AU
NORD DE TULEAR OU L'ON POURRAIT DEPASSER LES 100 A 150MM D'ICI
DIMANCHE. CETTE NUIT DES FORTES PLUIE SONT POSSIBLES ENTRE TOLONARO
(FORT DAUPHIN) ET VANGAINDRANO

- DES RAFALES PROCHES DES 100 KM/H ET UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX DE 4
A 6M) CONTINUENT A SE PRODUIRE LE LONG DE LA COTE MALGACHE DU CAP
SAINT VINCENT AU CAP SAINTE MARIE JUSQU'A DIMANCHE.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX PROCHES DE 4M) EST ATTENDUE SUR LA
REGION D'INHHAMBANE JUSQU'A SAMEDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271845
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/5/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 41.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 39 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/28 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 425 SW: 325 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2023/01/28 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 575 SW: 325 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SW: 240 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/01/29 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 490 SW: 345 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 45

48H: 2023/01/29 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 470 SW: 315 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 45

60H: 2023/01/30 06 UTC: 33.0 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 250

72H: 2023/01/30 18 UTC: 35.7 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 470
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 250

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CLEARLY
INCREASED NEAR CHENESO'S CORE IN THE FORM OF A CURVED BAND. THE LAST
MICROWAVE IMAGES (1334Z SSMIS) ALSO CONFIRM THIS IMPROVEMENT OF THE
CORE STRUCTURE. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS, THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55KT.

WITH THE SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF CHENESO,
THE SYSTEM UNDERGO A WEAK STEERING FLOW FAVORING A SOUTHWARD TRACK.
FROM TOMORROW ONWARDS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-EAST AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, CHENESO SHOULD
MAKE A PROGRESSIVE TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, ACCELERATING TOWARDS
THE MID-LATITUDES. THERE IS A CONSENSUS AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
ON THIS SCENARIO WITH LITTLE SPREAD.

BY RESUMING A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT, CHENESO FINDS CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
TO ITS INTENSIFICATION WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE. IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24H.
FROM SATURDAY, AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN FAVORING DRY AIR INTRUSION. EVEN IF THE
ACCELERATION SHOULD LIMIT THE CONSEQUENCES THE DECREASE OF THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING AND ITS
EXTRATROPICALIZATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE REGIONS SOUTH OF A
MORONDAVA-VANGAINDRANO LINE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TULEAR WHERE
RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 100 MM TO 150 MM UP TO SUNDAY. TONIGHT HEAVY
RAINFALLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN TOLONARO AND VANGAINDRANO

- GUSTS CLOSE TO 100 KM/H AND DANGEROUS SEAS (4 TO 6M WAVES) ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE MALAGASY COAST FROM CAPE SAINT VINCENT TO CAPE
SAINTE MARIE UNTIL SUNDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- DANGEROUS SEAS (WAVES CLOSE TO 4M) ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF
INHHAMBANE UNTIL SATURDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 271815
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 27/01/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 41.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/28 AT 06 UTC:
24.7 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/28 AT 18 UTC:
26.6 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 310 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 271500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230127134723
2023012712 08S CHENESO 012 01 195 09 SATL 060
T000 226S 0417E 050 R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 135 SE QD 115 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 241S 0414E 065 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 256S 0419E 065 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 278S 0436E 055 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 302S 0465E 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 349S 0574E 045 R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 22.6S 41.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 41.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 24.1S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.6S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.8S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 30.2S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 34.9S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 41.6E.
27JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z.
//
0823011306 81S 812E 20
0823011312 78S 811E 25
0823011318 76S 808E 25
0823011400 75S 806E 30
0823011406 75S 803E 25
0823011412 77S 802E 25
0823011418 80S 801E 25
0823011500 84S 800E 25
0823011506 93S 797E 25
0823011512 103S 791E 20
0823011518 111S 777E 20
0823011600 118S 759E 20
0823011606 120S 734E 20
0823011612 120S 700E 20
0823011618 121S 673E 25
0823011700 124S 645E 25
0823011706 127S 621E 30
0823011712 135S 600E 30
0823011718 141S 580E 35
0823011800 141S 562E 40
0823011806 138S 543E 45
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011906 147S 504E 40
0823011912 153S 496E 35
0823011918 159S 488E 35
0823012000 163S 479E 30
0823012006 164S 474E 30
0823012012 166S 467E 25
0823012018 172S 464E 25
0823012100 175S 462E 20
0823012106 182S 462E 20
0823012112 187S 457E 20
0823012118 189S 453E 20
0823012200 190S 444E 25
0823012206 193S 437E 25
0823012212 196S 442E 25
0823012218 200S 445E 25
0823012222 205S 448E 25
0823012300 206S 447E 25
0823012306 205S 444E 25
0823012312 205S 438E 25
0823012318 205S 432E 30
0823012400 201S 427E 35
0823012406 199S 428E 40
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012612 201S 428E 60
0823012612 201S 428E 60
0823012618 206S 423E 55
0823012618 206S 423E 55
0823012700 209S 421E 50
0823012700 209S 421E 50
0823012706 217S 420E 50
0823012706 217S 420E 50
0823012712 226S 417E 50
0823012712 226S 417E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 22.6S 41.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 41.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 24.1S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.6S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.8S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 30.2S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 34.9S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 41.6E.
27JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271233
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/5/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 27/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.4 S / 41.7 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SO: 545 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/01/2023 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 405 SO: 350 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 28/01/2023 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 530 SO: 350 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 29/01/2023 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 500 SO: 400 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 29/01/2023 12 UTC: 29.6 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 425 SO: 370 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 45

60H: 30/01/2023 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 380 SO: 360 NO: 425
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SO: 165 NO: 260
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85

72H: 30/01/2023 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 380 SO: 530 NO: 545
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SO: 195 NO: 305

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/01/2023 12 UTC: 46.4 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 815 SE: 480 SO: 610 NO: 565
34 KT NE: 435 SE: 390 SO: 315 NO: 350


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, APRES UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE
LA CONVECTION LA NUIT DERNIERE, CELLE CI SE RECONSTITUE PRES DU
CENTRE, ET S'ORGANISE EN BANDE INCURVEE. LES DERNIERES DONNEES GPM DE
11H10Z CONFIRMENT LA REINTENSIFICATION AVEC LA RECONSTRUCTION DE
L'OEIL EN BASSES COUCHES EN 37GHZ. L'ESTIMATION DE L'INTENSITE
S'APPUIE SUR CETTE REINTENSIFICATION ET LA PASSE SMAP DE 03H04Z.

AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS LE SUD-EST DE
CHENESO, LE SYSTEME RETROUVE UN FAIBLE FLUX DIRECTEUR FAVORISANT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALEMENT VERS LE SUD. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST ET A L'AVANT
D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, CHENESO DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN
VIRAGE PROGRESSIF VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. CE SCENARIO FAIT CONSENSUS DANS L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES
NUMERIQUES MEME S'IL Y A UN PEU DE DISPERSION DANS LES VITESSES DE
DEPLACEMENT EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

EN REPRENANT UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD, CHENESO RETROUVE DES
CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A SON INTENSIFICATION. IL POURRAIT DONC
ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL D'ICI SAMEDI. A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI, A L'AVANT DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE RENFORCER EN MOYENNE TROPOPAUSE,
AVEC UNE INTRUSION TEMPORAIRE D'AIR SEC, MAIS L'ACCELERATION DU
SYSTEME DEVRAIT LIMITER SON ACTION DANS LE TEMPS. D'AUTRE PART A
PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
BAISSER. CELA DEVRAIT DONC CONDUIRE A UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME ET A SON EXTRATROPICALISATION ENTRE LUNDI ET MARDI.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- LES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS VONT COMMENCER A S'ATTENUER SUR LA PARTIE
NORD-OUEST DE LA GRANDE ILE ET VONT DESORMAIS SURTOUT SE CONCENTRER
AU SUD D'UNE LIGNE MORONDAVA-FARAFANGANA, OU DES CUMULS DE 100
LOCALEMENT 150 MM SONT POSSIBLES (SUR LE SUD-OUEST, PRES DE MOROMBE,
ET DANS UN MOINDRE MESURE SUR LA FRANGE SUD-EST PRES DE TOLANARO OU
DES ORAGES DILUVIENS SONT ENCORE A CRAINDRE CETTE NUIT, POUVANT
GENERER DES CRUES-ECLAIR AVEC DES CUMULS DE PLUS DE 200 MM D'ICI CE
SOIR).

- DES RAFALES PROCHES DES 100 KM/H ET UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX DE 4
A 6M) CONTINUENT A SE PRODUIRE LE LONG DE LA COTE MALGACHE A
PROXIMITE DE MORONDOVA ET S'ETENDANT SURTOUT DU CAP SAINT VINCENT AU
CAP SAINTE MARIE ENTRE CETTE NUIT ET DIMANCHE.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX PROCHES DE 4M) EST ATTENDUE SUR LA
REGION D'INHHAMBANE JUSQU'A SAMEDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271233
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/5/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4 S / 41.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SW: 545 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/28 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 405 SW: 350 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2023/01/28 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 530 SW: 350 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/01/29 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 500 SW: 400 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2023/01/29 12 UTC: 29.6 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 425 SW: 370 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45

60H: 2023/01/30 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 380 SW: 360 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SW: 165 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85

72H: 2023/01/30 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 380 SW: 530 NW: 545
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 305

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/31 12 UTC: 46.4 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 815 SE: 480 SW: 610 NW: 565
34 KT NE: 435 SE: 390 SW: 315 NW: 350


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, AFTER A PHASE OF WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT, THIS ONE IS RECONSTITUTED NEAR THE CENTER, AND IS
ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND. THE LAST GPM DATA OF 11H10Z CONFIRM THE
REINTENSIFICATION WITH THE RECONSTRUCTION OF THE EYE IN LOW LAYERS IN
37GHZ. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON THIS REINTENSIFICATION AND
THE SMAP PASS OF 03H04Z.

WITH THE SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF CHENESO,
THE SYSTEM IS BACK TO A WEAK DIRECTING FLOW FAVORING A TRAJECTORY
GLOBALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CHENESO
SHOULD MAKE A PROGRESSIVE TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, ACCELERATING
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. THIS SCENARIO IS THE CONSENSUS OF ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS, EVEN IF THERE IS SOME DISPERSION IN THE SPEED OF
MOVEMENT AT LONGER RANGE.

BY RESUMING A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT, CHENESO FINDS CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
TO ITS INTENSIFICATION. IT COULD THEREFORE REACH THE STAGE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY. FROM SATURDAY, AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH, THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD START TO STRENGTHEN IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOPAUSE, WITH A TEMPORARY INTRUSION OF DRY AIR, BUT THE
ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT ITS ACTION IN TIME. ON THE
OTHER HAND, FROM SUNDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND TO
ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINFALL WILL START TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHWEST OF
MADAGASCAR AND WILL TEND TO FOCUS SOUTH OF A MORONDAVA-FARAFANGANA
LINE, WHERE RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 100 MM LOCALLY 150 MM UNTIL THE
WEEK-END (ON THE SOUTH-WEST, NEAR MOROMBE, BUT MORE SPECIFICALLY ON
THE SOUTH-EAST, NEAR TOLANARO WHERE SOME INTENSE STATIONNARY
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE FLASH-FLOODS WITH ABOVE 200 MM TOTALS UNTIL
THIS EVENING).

- GUSTS CLOSE TO 100 KM/H AND DANGEROUS SEAS (4 TO 6M WAVES) ARE
STILL ONGOING ALONG THE MALAGASY COAST NEAR MORONDOVA AND ARE
EXPECTED FROM CAPE SAINT VINCENT TO CAPE SAINTE MARIE FROM THIS NIGHT
UNTIL SUNDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- DANGEROUS SEAS (WAVES CLOSE TO 4M) ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF
INHHAMBANE UNTIL SATURDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 271206
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 27/01/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4 S / 41.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 170
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 295 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/28 AT 00 UTC:
23.8 S / 41.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/28 AT 12 UTC:
25.4 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270705
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/5/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 27/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 41.9 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/01/2023 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 445 SO: 405 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75

24H: 28/01/2023 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 345 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 28/01/2023 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 555 SO: 345 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 29/01/2023 06 UTC: 28.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 405 SO: 325 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 29/01/2023 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 390 SO: 315 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SO: 195 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 30/01/2023 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 380 SO: 350 NO: 445
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SO: 195 NO: 270
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/01/2023 06 UTC: 42.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 770 SE: 490 SO: 620 NO: 630
34 KT NE: 400 SE: 390 SO: 335 NO: 445
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 45

120H: 01/02/2023 06 UTC: 55.7 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 945 SE: 715 SO: 555 NO: 620
34 KT NE: 480 SE: 595 SO: 480 NO: 415
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 60 SO: 160 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, APRES UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE
LA CONVECTION PRES DU CENTRE, CELLE CI SE RECONSTITUE SUR LES
DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES, ET S'ORGANISE EN BANDE INCURVEE. LE
SYSTEME EST ENCORE PROBABLEMENT PENALISE PAR LES EAUX SUPERFICIELLES
TROP FRAICHES ISSUES DE SA PHASE DE STATIONNARITE.

AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS LE SUD-EST DE
CHENESO, LE SYSTEME RETROUVE UN FAIBLE FLUX DIRECTEUR FAVORISANT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALEMENT VERS LE SUD. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST ET A L'AVANT
D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, CHENESO DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN
VIRAGE PROGRESSIF VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. CE SCENARIO FAIT CONSENSUS DANS L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES
NUMERIQUES MEME S'IL Y A UN PEU DE DISPERSION DANS LES VITESSES DE
DEPLACEMENT EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

LA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE CHENESO, QUI A ETE PLUS FORTE
QU'INITIALEMENT PREVU, DEVRAIT MAINTENANT ETRE TERMINEE : EN
S'ELOIGNANT DE LA ZONE QU'IL A LUI MEME REFROIDI, IL DEVRAIT
RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A SON INTENSIFICATION. IL
POURRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL D'ICI SAMEDI. A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI, A L'AVANT DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE RENFORCER, TANDIS QUE DIMANCHE, LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT SIGNIFICATIVEMENT BAISSER. CELA DEVRAIT
DONC CONDUIRE A UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME ET A SON
EXTRATROPICALISATION ENTRE LUNDI ET MARDI.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- LES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS VONT COMMENCER A S'ATTENUER SUR LA PARTIE
NORD-OUEST DE LA GRANDE ILE ET VONT DESORMAIS SURTOUT SE CONCENTRER
AU SUD D'UNE LIGNE MORONDAVA-FARAFANGANA, OU DES CUMULS DE 100-150 MM
SONT POSSIBLES (SUR LE SUD-OUEST, PRES DE MOROMBE, ET DANS UN MOINDRE
MESURE SUR LA FRANGE SUD-EST PRES DE TOLANARO OU DES ORAGES
DILUVIENS SONT ENCORE A CRAINDRE CE VENDREDI, POUVANT GENERER DES
CRUES-ECLAIR AVEC DES CUMULS DE PLUS DE 200 MM D'ICI CE SOIR).

- DES RAFALES PROCHES DES 100 KM/H ET UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX DE 4
A 6M) CONTINUENT A SE PRODUIRE LE LONG DE LA COTE MALGACHE A
PROXIMITE DE MORONDOVA CE VENDREDI ET SURTOUT DU CAP SAINT VINCENT AU
CAP SAINTE MARIE ENTRE CE VENDREDI APRES-MIDI ET DIMANCHE.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX PROCHES DE 4M) EST ATTENDUE SUR LA
REGION D'INHHAMBANE JUSQU'A SAMEDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270705
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/5/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 41.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/27 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 445 SW: 405 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75

24H: 2023/01/28 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SW: 345 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2023/01/28 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 555 SW: 345 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SW: 250 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2023/01/29 06 UTC: 28.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 405 SW: 325 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2023/01/29 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 390 SW: 315 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2023/01/30 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 380 SW: 350 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 270
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/31 06 UTC: 42.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 770 SE: 490 SW: 620 NW: 630
34 KT NE: 400 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 445
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 45

120H: 2023/02/01 06 UTC: 55.7 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 945 SE: 715 SW: 555 NW: 620
34 KT NE: 480 SE: 595 SW: 480 NW: 415
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 60 SW: 160 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, AFTER A PHASE OF WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER, THIS ONE IS RECONSTITUTED ON THE LAST SATELLITE
IMAGES, AND IS ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND. THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY STILL
PENALIZED BY THE TOO FRESH SURFACE WATER COMING FROM ITS STATIONARY
PHASE.

WITH THE SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF CHENESO,
THE SYSTEM IS BACK TO A WEAK DIRECTING FLOW FAVORING A TRAJECTORY
GLOBALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CHENESO
SHOULD MAKE A PROGRESSIVE TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, ACCELERATING
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. THIS SCENARIO IS THE CONSENSUS OF ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS, EVEN IF THERE IS SOME DISPERSION IN THE SPEED OF
MOVEMENT AT LONGER RANGE.

CHENESO'S TEMPORARY WEAKENING PHASE, WHICH HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATED,
SHOULD HOWEVER BE OVER FROM NOW ON : AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE UPWELLING-INDUCED COOLED WATERS, IT SHOULD RETURN TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR ITS INTENSIFICATION. IT COULD THEREFORE REACH TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE BY SATURDAY. THIS FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH, NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD START TO STRENGTHEN,
WHILE ON SUNDAY, OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE.
THIS SHOULD THEREFORE LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND TO
ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FROM MONDAY ONWARDS.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINFALL WILL START TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHWEST OF
MADAGASCAR (SOME ADDITIONNAL 50-100 MM TOTALS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY)
BUT WILL TEND TO FOCUS SOUTH OF A MORONDAVA-FARAFANGANA LINE, WHERE
RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 150 MM LOCALLY UNTIL THE WEEK-END (ON THE
SOUTH-WEST, NEAR MOROMBE, BUT MORE SPECIFICALLY ON THE SOUTH-EAST,
NIEAR TOLANARO WHERE SOME INTENSE STATIONNARY THUNDERSTORMS CAN
PRODUCE FLASH-FLOODS WITH ABOVE 200 MM TOTALS UNTIL THIS EVENING).

- GUSTS CLOSE TO 100 KM/H AND DANGEROUS SEAS (4 TO 6M WAVES) ARE
STILL ONGOING ALONG THE MALAGASY COAST NEAR MORONDOVA THIS FRIDAY AND
ARE EXPECTED FROM CAPE SAINT VINCENT TO CAPE SAINTE MARIE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- DANGEROUS SEAS (WAVES CLOSE TO 4M) ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF
INHHAMBANE UNTIL SATURDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 270610
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 27/01/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 41.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/27 AT 18 UTC:
22.9 S / 41.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 240 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/28 AT 06 UTC:
24.4 S / 41.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 270300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230127020017
2023012700 08S CHENESO 011 01 210 04 SATL 020
T000 209S 0421E 050 R050 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 220S 0415E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 233S 0412E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 250S 0419E 070 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 270S 0436E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 315S 0505E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 385S 0623E 050 R050 070 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 190 SW QD 210 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 20.9S 42.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 42.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.0S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.3S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.0S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.0S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 31.5S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 38.5S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 42.0E.
27JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
132 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z.
//
0823011306 81S 812E 20
0823011312 78S 811E 25
0823011318 76S 808E 25
0823011400 75S 806E 30
0823011406 75S 803E 25
0823011412 77S 802E 25
0823011418 80S 801E 25
0823011500 84S 800E 25
0823011506 93S 797E 25
0823011512 103S 791E 20
0823011518 111S 777E 20
0823011600 118S 759E 20
0823011606 120S 734E 20
0823011612 120S 700E 20
0823011618 121S 673E 25
0823011700 124S 645E 25
0823011706 127S 621E 30
0823011712 135S 600E 30
0823011718 141S 580E 35
0823011800 141S 562E 40
0823011806 138S 543E 45
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011906 147S 504E 40
0823011912 153S 496E 35
0823011918 159S 488E 35
0823012000 163S 479E 30
0823012006 164S 474E 30
0823012012 166S 467E 25
0823012018 172S 464E 25
0823012100 175S 462E 20
0823012106 182S 462E 20
0823012112 187S 457E 20
0823012118 189S 453E 20
0823012200 190S 444E 25
0823012206 193S 437E 25
0823012212 196S 442E 25
0823012218 200S 445E 25
0823012222 205S 448E 25
0823012300 206S 447E 25
0823012306 205S 444E 25
0823012312 205S 438E 25
0823012318 205S 432E 30
0823012400 201S 427E 35
0823012406 199S 428E 40
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012612 201S 428E 60
0823012612 201S 428E 60
0823012618 206S 423E 55
0823012618 206S 423E 55
0823012700 209S 421E 50
0823012700 209S 421E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 20.9S 42.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 42.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.0S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.3S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.0S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.0S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 31.5S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 38.5S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 42.0E.
27JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
132 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270044
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/5/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 27/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.0 S / 42.0 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/01/2023 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 465 SO: 400 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

24H: 28/01/2023 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 370 SO: 335 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 28/01/2023 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 435 SO: 325 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

48H: 29/01/2023 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 480 SO: 360 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75

60H: 29/01/2023 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 370 SO: 305 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 75

72H: 30/01/2023 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 380 SO: 360 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 250
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/01/2023 00 UTC: 40.3 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 665 SE: 455 SO: 510 NO: 595
34 KT NE: 345 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 390
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 75

120H: 01/02/2023 00 UTC: 51.4 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 935 SE: 555 SO: 585 NO: 650
34 KT NE: 480 SE: 470 SO: 445 NO: 490
48 KT NE: 180 SE: 60 SO: 130 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA FAIBLE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL A
LAISSE PLACE UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE S'ENROULANT SUR
ENVIRON UN TOUR ET DEMI, AVEC UNE CONVECTION QUI A CONTINUE A FAIBLIR
PRES DU CENTRE. LE SYSTEME EST ENCORE PROBABLEMENT PENALISE PAR LES
EAUX SUPERFICIELLES TROP FRAICHES ISSUES DE SA PHASE DE
STATIONNARITE. L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 50KT, FAISANT UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE, LES ESTIMATIONS SATCON ET LES
RECENTES DONNEES ASCAT ET SAR EXTRAPOLEES.

AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS LE SUD-EST DE
CHENESO, LE SYSTEME RETROUVE UN FAIBLE FLUX DIRECTEUR FAVORISANT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST ET A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, CHENESO DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN VIRAGE
PROGRESSIF VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.
CE SCENARIO FAIT CONSENSUS DANS L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES NUMERIQUES
MEME S'IL Y A UN PEU DE DISPERSION DANS LES VITESSES DE DEPLACEMENT
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

LA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE CHENESO, QUI A ETE PLUS FORTE
QU'INITIALEMENT PREVU, DEVRAIT MAINTENANT ETRE TERMINEE : EN
S'ELOIGNANT DE LA ZONE QU'IL A LUI MEME REFROIDI, IL DEVRAIT
RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A SON INTENSIFICATION. IL
POURRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL D'ICI SAMEDI. LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE SEMBLE MOINS PROBABLE
QU'INITIALEMENT ENVISAGE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, A L'AVANT DU THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE
RENFORCER, TANDIS QUE DIMANCHE, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT BAISSER. CELA DEVRAIT DONC CONDUIRE A UN LENT
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME ET A SON EXTRATROPICALISATION ENTRE LUNDI
ET MARDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- LES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS VONT COMMENCER A S'ATTENUER SUR LA PARTIE
NORD-OUEST DE LA GRANDE ILE (ENCORE 50-100 MM LOCALEMENT) ET VONT
DESORMAIS SURTOUT SE CONCENTRER AU SUD D'UNE LIGNE
MORONDAVA-FARAFANGANA, OU DES CUMULS A PLUS DE 150 MM SONT POSSIBLES
(SUR LE SUD-OUEST, PRES DE MOROMBE, MAIS SURTOUT SUR LA FRANGE
SUD-EST AUX ENVIRONS DE TOLAGNARO OU DES ORAGES DILUVIENS SONT A
CRAINDRE CE VENDREDI, POUVANT GENERER DES CRUES-ECLAIR AVEC DES
CUMULS DE PLUS DE 200 MM D'ICI CE SOIR).

- DES RAFALES PROCHES DES 100 KM/H ET UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX DE 4
A 6M) CONTINUENT A SE PRODUIRE LE LONG DE LA COTE MALGACHE A
PROXIMITE DE MORONDOVA CE VENDREDI ET SURTOUT DU CAP SAINT VINCENT AU
CAP SAINTE MARIE ENTRE CE VENDREDI APRES-MIDI ET DIMANCHE.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX PROCHES DE 4M) EST ATTENDUE SUR LA
REGION D'INHHAMBANE JUSQU'A SAMEDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270044
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/5/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 42.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/27 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 465 SW: 400 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

24H: 2023/01/28 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2023/01/28 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 435 SW: 325 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

48H: 2023/01/29 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 480 SW: 360 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75

60H: 2023/01/29 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 370 SW: 305 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75

72H: 2023/01/30 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 380 SW: 360 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 250
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/31 00 UTC: 40.3 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 665 SE: 455 SW: 510 NW: 595
34 KT NE: 345 SE: 350 SW: 250 NW: 390
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75

120H: 2023/02/01 00 UTC: 51.4 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 935 SE: 555 SW: 585 NW: 650
34 KT NE: 480 SE: 470 SW: 445 NW: 490
48 KT NE: 180 SE: 60 SW: 130 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CHENESO'S WEAK EYE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED
TOWARDS A CURVED BAND PATTERN, WRAPPING ABOUT 1.5 ON THE LOG10
SPIRAL, WHILE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN NEAR THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM THE NEGATIVE FEEDBACK DUE
TO COOL SURFACE WATERS FOLLOWING ITS STATIONNARY PHASE. THE INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 50KT, MAKING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS, SATCON ESTIMATES AS WELL AS RECENT ASCAT AND SAR
EXTRAPOLATED DATA.

WITH THE SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CHENESO,
THE SYSTEM'S IS NOW BEING STEERED SOUTHWESTWARDS. FROM SATURDAY,
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CHENESO SHOULD MAKE A GRADUAL
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. THIS
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ALL NUMERICAL MODELS, EVEN IF THERE IS SOME
SPREAD IN THE MOVEMENT SPEED AT LONGER RANGE.

CHENESO'S TEMPORARY WEAKENING PHASE, WHICH HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATED,
SHOULD HOWEVER BE OVER FROM NOW ON : AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE UPWELLING-INDUCED COOLED WATERS, IT SHOULD RETURN TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR ITS INTENSIFICATION. IT COULD THEREFORE REACH TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE BY SATURDAY. INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE SEEMS A BIT
LESS LIKELY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS,
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD START TO
STRENGTHEN, WHILE ON SUNDAY, OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASE. THIS SHOULD THEREFORE LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM AND TO ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FROM MONDAY ONWARDS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINFALL WILL START TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHWEST OF
MADAGASCAR (SOME ADDITIONNAL 50-100 MM TOTALS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY)
BUT WILL TEND TO FOCUS SOUTH OF A MORONDAVA-FARAFANGANA LINE, WHERE
RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 150 MM LOCALLY UNTIL THE WEEK-END (ON THE
SOUTH-WEST, NEAR MOROMBE, BUT MORE SPECIFICALLY ON THE SOUTH-EAST,
NIEAR TOLANARO WHERE SOME INTENSE STATIONNARY THUNDERSTORMS CAN
PRODUCE FLASH-FLOODS WITH ABOVE 200 MM TOTALS UNTIL THIS EVENING).

- GUSTS CLOSE TO 100 KM/H AND DANGEROUS SEAS (4 TO 6M WAVES) ARE
STILL ONGOING ALONG THE MALAGASY COAST NEAR MORONDOVA THIS FRIDAY AND
ARE EXPECTED FROM CAPE SAINT VINCENT TO CAPE SAINTE MARIE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- DANGEROUS SEAS (WAVES CLOSE TO 4M) ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF
INHHAMBANE UNTIL SATURDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 270020
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 27/01/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 42.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 170 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 340 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/27 AT 12 UTC:
22.3 S / 41.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 250 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/28 AT 00 UTC:
23.7 S / 40.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261832
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/5/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 26/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.7 S / 42.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SO: 305 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/01/2023 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 335 SO: 445 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 55

24H: 27/01/2023 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SO: 405 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 28/01/2023 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 380 SO: 335 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 28/01/2023 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 530 SO: 345 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SO: 250 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75

60H: 29/01/2023 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 445 SO: 325 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SO: 185 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 29/01/2023 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 400 SO: 295 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SO: 215 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/01/2023 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 415 SO: 490 NO: 490
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SO: 220 NO: 270
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 45

120H: 31/01/2023 18 UTC: 46.8 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 870 SE: 445 SO: 520 NO: 465
34 KT NE: 445 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 335
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 70 SO: 130 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

CHENESO GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL ASSEZ MAL DEFINIE ET AVEC UNE
CONVECTION PEU VIGOUREUSE (TEMPERATURES DE SOMMETS NUAGEUX
SUPERIEURES A -60C), TEMOIGNANT DES EFFETS INHIBANT DES EAUX
SUPERFICIELLES ENCORE TROP FRAICHES SOUS LE SYSTEME. LES PASSES
MICRO-ONDES SSMIS SUCCESSIVES DEPUIS 12UTC MONTRENT NEANMOINS UNE
TIMIDE RE-ORGANISATION DE L'ANNEAU CONVECTIF CENTRAL. L'INTENSITE DE
CHENESO EST ESTIMEE A 55KT, FAISANT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE L'ANALYSE
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE (DT MOYEN SUR 3H DE 3.5+) ET LES ESTIMATIONS
SATCON, EN BAISSE DEPUIS CE MATIN.

AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS LE SUD-EST DE
CHENESO, LE SYSTEME RETROUVE UN FAIBLE FLUX DIRECTEUR FAVORISANT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, IL DEVRAIT
RESTER A PLUS DE 150 KM DES COTES DE MADAGASCAR. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST ET A
L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, CHENESO DEVRAIT EFFECTUER
UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.
CE SCENARIO FAIT CONSENSUS DANS L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES NUMERIQUES
MEME S'IL Y A UN PEU DE DISPERSION DANS LES VITESSES DE DEPLACEMENT
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

LA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE CHENESO SEMBLE MAINTENANT ETRE TERMINEE
: EN S'ELOIGNANT DE LA ZONE QU'IL A LUI MEME REFROIDI, IL DEVRAIT
RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A SON INTENSIFICATION. IL
POURRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE D'ICI
SAMEDI. CETTE PREVISION NE TIENT PAS COMPTE D'EVENTUELS CYCLES DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, A L'AVANT DU
THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT COMMENCER A
SE RENFORCER, TANDIS QUE DIMANCHE, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT BAISSER. CET ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS HOSTILE
DEVRAIT DONC CONDUIRE A UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME ET A SON
EXTRATROPICALISATION ENTRE LUNDI ET MARDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- S'AJOUTANT AUX FORTES PLUIES DEJA TOMBEES, LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER
SUR LES REGIONS LITTORALES DE L'OUEST ET DU SUD-OUEST PRINCIPALEMENT
AVEC DES LAMES D'EAU EXCEDANT LES 150 MM SUR LA PERIODE, NOTAMMENT
BIEN AU NORD DU SYSTEME.

- DES RAFALES PROCHES DES 100 KM/H ET UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX DE 4
A 6M) SONT ATTENDUES LE LONG DE LA COTE MALGACHE A PROXIMITE DE
MORONDOVA JUSQU'A DEMAIN ET DU CAP SAINT VINCENT AU CAP SAINTE MARIE
A PARTIR DE DEMAIN JUSQU'EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX PROCHES DE 4M) EST ATTENDUE SUR LA
REGION D'INHHAMBANE JUSQU'A SAMEDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261832
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/5/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 42.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 305 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/27 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 335 SW: 445 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 55

24H: 2023/01/27 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SW: 405 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2023/01/28 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 380 SW: 335 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2023/01/28 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 530 SW: 345 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

60H: 2023/01/29 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 445 SW: 325 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2023/01/29 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 400 SW: 295 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/30 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 415 SW: 490 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 270
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 45

120H: 2023/01/31 18 UTC: 46.8 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 870 SE: 445 SW: 520 NW: 465
34 KT NE: 445 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 335
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 70 SW: 130 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

CHENESO KEEPS A RATHER POORLY DEFINED EYE PATTERN WITH CONVECTION
REMAINING QUITE WEAK (CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ABOVE -60C), PROBABLY
DUE TO REMAINING INHIBITING EFFECTS OF COOL SURFACE WATERS STILL
UNDER THE SYSTEM. THE SUCCESSIVE SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES SINCE 12UTC
NEVERTHELESS SHOW VERY SLIGHT REORGANIZATION OF THE CENTRAL
CONVECTIVE CORE. CHENESO'S INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55KT, MAKING A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS (AVERAGE DT OVER 3H OF
3.5+) AND SATCON ESTIMATES WHICH HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND SINCE
THIS MORNING.

WITH THE SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CHENESO,
THE SYSTEM'S IS NOW BEING STEERED SOUTHWESTWARDS. ON THIS TRACK, IT
SHOULD STAY MORE THAN 150 KM FROM THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. FROM
SATURDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CHENESO SHOULD MAKE A
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. THIS
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ALL NUMERICAL MODELS, EVEN IF THERE IS SOME
SPREAD IN THE MOVEMENT SPEED AT LONGER RANGE.

CHENESO'S TEMPORARY WEAKENING SHOULD BE OVER FROM NOW ON : AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPWELLING-INDUCED COOLED WATERS, IT SHOULD
RETURN TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ITS INTENSIFICATION. IT COULD
THEREFORE REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY SATURDAY. THIS
FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THE
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD START TO STRENGTHEN, WHILE ON SUNDAY, THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE. THIS HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD THEREFORE LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
AND TO ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FROM MONDAY ONWARDS.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- IN ADDITION TO THE RECENTLY OBSERVED RAIN TOTALS, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH-WESTERN REGIONS, WITH RAINFALL EXCEEDING 150 MM OVER THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.

- GUSTS CLOSE TO 100 KM/H AND DANGEROUS SEAS (4 TO 6M WAVES) ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE MALAGASY COAST NEAR MORONDOVA UNTIL TOMORROW AND
FROM CAPE SAINT VINCENT TO CAPE SAINTE MARIE FROM FRIDAY EVENING
UNTIL SUNDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- DANGEROUS SEAS (WAVES CLOSE TO 4M) ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF
INHHAMBANE UNTIL SATURDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 261816
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 26/01/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 42.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 350 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 165 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/27 AT 06 UTC:
21.8 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/27 AT 18 UTC:
23.1 S / 40.9 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 261500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230126133318
2023012612 08S CHENESO 010 01 195 03 SATL 060
T000 201S 0428E 065 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 211S 0421E 070 R064 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 223S 0414E 080 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 236S 0410E 090 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 255S 0418E 085 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 296S 0465E 065 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 345S 0553E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 20.1S 42.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 42.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.1S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.3S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.6S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.5S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 29.6S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 34.5S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 42.6E.
26JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
192 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.
//
0823011306 81S 812E 20
0823011312 78S 811E 25
0823011318 76S 808E 25
0823011400 75S 806E 30
0823011406 75S 803E 25
0823011412 77S 802E 25
0823011418 80S 801E 25
0823011500 84S 800E 25
0823011506 93S 797E 25
0823011512 103S 791E 20
0823011518 111S 777E 20
0823011600 118S 759E 20
0823011606 120S 734E 20
0823011612 120S 700E 20
0823011618 121S 673E 25
0823011700 124S 645E 25
0823011706 127S 621E 30
0823011712 135S 600E 30
0823011718 141S 580E 35
0823011800 141S 562E 40
0823011806 138S 543E 45
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011906 147S 504E 40
0823011912 153S 496E 35
0823011918 159S 488E 35
0823012000 163S 479E 30
0823012006 164S 474E 30
0823012012 166S 467E 25
0823012018 172S 464E 25
0823012100 175S 462E 20
0823012106 182S 462E 20
0823012112 187S 457E 20
0823012118 189S 453E 20
0823012200 190S 444E 25
0823012206 193S 437E 25
0823012212 196S 442E 25
0823012218 200S 445E 25
0823012222 205S 448E 25
0823012300 206S 447E 25
0823012306 205S 444E 25
0823012312 205S 438E 25
0823012318 205S 432E 30
0823012400 201S 427E 35
0823012406 199S 428E 40
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012612 201S 428E 65
0823012612 201S 428E 65
0823012612 201S 428E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 20.1S 42.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 42.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.1S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.3S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.6S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.5S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 29.6S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 34.5S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 42.6E.
26JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
192 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261250
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/5/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.3 S / 42.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/01/2023 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SO: 370 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 27/01/2023 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 400 SO: 405 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 28/01/2023 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 360 SO: 335 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 28/01/2023 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 380 SO: 305 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

60H: 29/01/2023 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 260 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75

72H: 29/01/2023 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 380 SO: 285 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SO: 150 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/01/2023 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 380 SO: 380 NO: 490
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 270
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 85

120H: 31/01/2023 12 UTC: 43.9 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 730 SE: 325 SO: 295 NO: 565
34 KT NE: 360 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 345
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 60 SO: 100 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE AMSR2 DE 1051Z A CONFIRME QUE LE COEUR DE CHENESO
S'ETAIT EFFONDRE EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE SUITE AU REFROIDISSEMENT DES
EAUX SOUS JACENTES. DEPUIS IL A REPRIS UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE
SUD-OUEST QUI FAVORISE DEPUIS LA MI-JOURNEE LE RENFORCEMENT DE
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. L'INTENSITE A ETE FIXE A 60KT EN ACCORD AVEC
LE SATCON DU CIMSS.

AVEC LA DEPLACEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DU SUD-OUEST DE
CHENESO AU SUD-EST, LE SYSTEME RETROUVE UN FAIBLE FLUX DIRECTEUR
FAVORISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. SUR CETTE TRACK, IL
DEVRAIT RESTER A PLUS DE 150KM DES COTES DE MADAGASCAR. A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST
ET A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, CHENESO DEVRAIT
S'ORIENTER PLUS FRANCHEMENT PUIS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT VERS LES
MOYENNES LATITUDES. CE SCENARIO FAIT CONSENSUS DANS L'ENSEMBLE DES
MODELES NUMERIQUES MEME S'IL Y A UN PEU DE DISPERSION DANS LES
VITESSES DE DEPLACEMENT EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

LA STATIONNARITE DE CHENESO A CONDUIT A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT
TEMPORAIRE. CEPENDANT EN S'ELOIGNANT DE LA ZONE QU'IL A LUI MEME
REFROIDI, IL DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A SON
INTENSIFICATION. IL POURRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE D'ICI LA NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE. CETTE PREVISION
NE TIENT PAS COMPTE D'EVENTUELS CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, A L'AVANT DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE RENFORCER, TANDIS
QUE DIMANCHE, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
BAISSER. CET ENVIRONNEMENT HOSTILE DEVRAIT DONC CONDUIRE A UN LENT
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME ET A SON EXTRATROPICALISATION.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- S'AJOUTANT AUX FORTES PLUIES DEJA TOMBEES, LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER
SUR LES REGIONS LITTORALES DE L'OUEST ET DU SUD-OUEST PRINCIPALEMENT
AVEC DES LAMES D'EAU EXCEDANT LES 150 MM SUR LA PERIODE, NOTAMMENT
BIEN AU NORD DU SYSTEME.

- DES RAFALES PROCHE DES 100KM/H ET UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX DE 4 A
6M) SONT ATTENDUES LE LONG DE LA COTE MALGACHE A PROXIMITE DE
MORONDOVA JUSQU'A DEMAIN ET DU CAP SAINT VINCENT AU CAP SAINTE MARIE
A PARTIR DE DEMAIN JUSQU'EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX PROCHES DE 4M) EST ATTENDU SUR LA REGION
D'INHHAMBANE JUSQU'A SAMEDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261250
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/5/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 42.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/27 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 370 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2023/01/27 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 400 SW: 405 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/01/28 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2023/01/28 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 380 SW: 305 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

60H: 2023/01/29 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75

72H: 2023/01/29 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 380 SW: 285 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/30 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 380 SW: 380 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 270
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85

120H: 2023/01/31 12 UTC: 43.9 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 730 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 565
34 KT NE: 360 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 345
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 60 SW: 100 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

THE 1051Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMED THAT THE CORE OF CHENESO HAD
COLLAPSED EARLY TODAY DUE TO COOLING OF THE UNDERLYING WATER. SINCE
THEN, IT HAS RESUMED A SOUTH-EASTWARD MOVEMENT WHICH FAVORS SINCE
MIDDAY THE STRENGTHENING OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE INTENSITY
HAS BEEN SET AT 60KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CIMSS SATCON.

WITH THE SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF CHENESO
TO ITS SOUTHEAST, THE SYSTEM REGAINED A WEAK STEERING FLOW SUPPORTING
A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ON THIS TRACK, IT SHOULD STAY MORE THAN 150KM
FROM THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. FROM SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CHENESO SHOULD MOVE MORE FIRMLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS, EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SPREAD
IN THE MOVEMENT SPEED AT LONGER RANGE.

CHENESO'S STATIONARITY HAS LED TO ITS TEMPORARY WEAKENING. HOWEVER,
WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COOLED WATERS, IT SHOULD RETURN TO
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ITS INTENSIFICATION. IT COULD THEREFORE
REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
PREDICTION REMAINS HOWEVER UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT DEPENDS STRONGLY ON
THE SYSTEM'S TRACK. THIS FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT POSSIBLE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD START TO STRENGTHEN, WHILE ON
SUNDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE. THIS
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD THEREFORE LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM AND TO ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- IN ADDITION TO THE RECENTLY OBSERVED RAIN TOTALS, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH-WESTERN REGIONS, WITH RAINFALL EXCEEDING 150 MM OVER THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.

- GUSTS CLOSE TO 100KM/H AND DANGEROUS SEA (4 TO 6M WAVES) ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE MALAGASY COAST NEAR MORONDOVA UNTIL TOMORROW AND
FROM CAPE SAINT VINCENT TO CAPE SAINTE MARIE FROM FRIDAY EVENING
UNTIL SUNDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- A DANGEROUS SEA (WAVES CLOSE TO 4M) IS EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF
INHHAMBANE UNTIL SATURDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 261217
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 26/01/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 42.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/27 AT 00 UTC:
21.2 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/27 AT 12 UTC:
22.5 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 155 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260647
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/5/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.0 S / 42.9 E
(VINGT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/01/2023 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 435 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 27/01/2023 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 455 SO: 445 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 27/01/2023 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 520 SO: 400 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 270 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 28/01/2023 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 390 SO: 325 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 28/01/2023 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 545 SO: 350 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SO: 220 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 29/01/2023 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 380 SO: 305 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SO: 195 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/01/2023 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 360 SO: 650 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SO: 305 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 85

120H: 31/01/2023 06 UTC: 40.9 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 600 SE: 445 SO: 400 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SO: 230 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 60 SO: 90 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE CHENESO
S'EST EFFONDREE, AVEC LA DISPARITION DE L'OEIL ET LE NET
RECHAUFFEMENT DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX. CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT EST LIE A LA
STATIONNARITE DU SYSTEME ET AU REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS
JACENTES. L'ANALYSE D'INTENSITE EST BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES
DERNIERES OBSERVATIONS EN TENANT COMPTE D'UN TEMPS D'INERTIE.

AVEC LA DEPLACEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DU SUD-OUEST DE
CHENESO AU SUD-EST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RETROUVER UN FAIBLE FLUX
DIRECTEUR FAVORISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. SUR CETTE
TRACK, IL DEVRAIT RESTER A PLUS DE 100KM DES COTES DE MADAGASCAR. A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST ET A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES CHENESO
DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT
VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. CE SCENARIO FAIT CONSENSUS DANS
L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES NUMERIQUES MEME S'IL Y A UN PEU DE DISPERSION
DANS LES VITESSES DE DEPLACEMENT EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

LA STATIONNARITE DE CHENESO A CONDUIT A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT
TEMPORAIRE. CEPENDANT A MESURE QUE LE SYSTEME S'ELOIGNERA DE LA ZONE
QU'IL A LUI MEME REFROIDI, IL DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS
FAVORABLES A SON INTENSIFICATION. IL POURRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE D'ICI LA NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE. CETTE
PREVISION RESTE TOUTEFOIS INCERTAINE CAR FORTEMENT DEPENDANTE DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME. CETTE PREVISION NE TIENT PAR AILLEUS PAS
COMPTE D'EVENTUELS CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. A PARTIR
DE SAMEDI, A L'AVANT DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE RENFORCER, TANDIS QUE DIMANCHE, LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT SIGNIFICATIVEMENT BAISSER. CET
ENVIRONNEMENT HOSTILE DEVRAIT DONC CONDUIRE A UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DU SYSTEME ET A SON EXTRATROPICALISATION.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- S'AJOUTANT AUX FORTES PLUIES DEJA TOMBEES, LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER
SUR LES REGIONS LITTORALES DE L'OUEST ET DU SUD-OUEST PRINCIPALEMENT
AVEC DES LAMES D'EAU EXCEDANT LES 150 MM SUR LA PERIODE, NOTAMMENT
BIEN AU NORD DU SYSTEME.

- DES RAFALES PROCHE DES 100KM/H ET UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX DE 4 A
6M) SONT ATTENDUES LE LONG DE LA COTE MALGACHE A PROXIMITE DE
MORONDOVA JUSQU'A DEMAIN ET DU CAP SAINT VINCENT AU CAP SAINTE MARIE
A PARTIR DE VENDREDI SOIR JUSQU'EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX PROCHES DE 4M) EST ATTENDU SUR LA REGION
D'INHHAMBANE JUSQU'A SAMEDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260647
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/5/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 42.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/26 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 435 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2023/01/27 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 455 SW: 445 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2023/01/27 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 520 SW: 400 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2023/01/28 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 390 SW: 325 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2023/01/28 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 545 SW: 350 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SW: 220 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2023/01/29 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 380 SW: 305 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/30 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 360 SW: 650 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85

120H: 2023/01/31 06 UTC: 40.9 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 600 SE: 445 SW: 400 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 230 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 60 SW: 90 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CHENESO'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS COLLAPSED, WITH
THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EYE AND A STRONG WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS.
THIS WEAKENING IS RELATED TO THE STATIONARITY OF THE SYSTEM AND TO
THE COOLING OF THE UNDERLYING WATERS. THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LAST OBSERVATIONS WHILE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A
DELAY DUE TO INERTIA.

WITH THE SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF CHENESO
TO ITS SOUTHEAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REGAIN A WEAK STEERING FLOW
SUPPORTING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ON THIS TRACK, IT SHOULD STAY MORE
THAN 100KM FROM THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. FROM SATURDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AHEAD OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CHENESO SHOULD MOVE MORE FIRMLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS, EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SPREAD
IN THE MOVEMENT SPEED AT LONGER RANGE.

CHENESO'S STATIONARITY HAS LED TO ITS TEMPORARY WEAKENING. HOWEVER,
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA IT HAS COOLED, IT SHOULD
REGAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ITS INTENSIFICATION. IT COULD
THEREFORE REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS PREDICTION REMAINS HOWEVER UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT DEPENDS STRONGLY
ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK. THIS FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD START TO
STRENGTHEN, WHILE ON SUNDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE. THIS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD THEREFORE
LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND TO ITS
EXTRATROPICALISATION.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- IN ADDITION TO THE RECENTLY OBSERVED RAIN TOTALS, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH-WESTERN REGIONS, WITH RAINFALL EXCEEDING 150 MM OVER THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.

- GUSTS CLOSE TO 100KM/H AND DANGEROUS SEA (4 TO 6M WAVES) ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE MALAGASY COAST NEAR MORONDOVA UNTIL TOMORROW AND
FROM CAPE SAINT VINCENT TO CAPE SAINTE MARIE FROM FRIDAY EVENING
UNTIL SUNDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- A DANGEROUS SEA (WAVES CLOSE TO 4M) IS EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF
INHHAMBANE UNTIL SATURDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 260614
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 26/01/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CHENESO) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 42.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/26 AT 18 UTC:
20.8 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 235 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/27 AT 06 UTC:
22.0 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 260300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230126012107
2023012600 08S CHENESO 009 01 090 01 SATL SYNP 010
T000 196S 0432E 075 R064 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 045 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 090 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 202S 0428E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 211S 0420E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 222S 0412E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 235S 0409E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 273S 0434E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 311S 0500E 065 R064 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 180 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 367S 0605E 055 R050 060 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 150 SE QD 210 SW QD 250 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 43.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 43.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.2S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.1S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.2S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.5S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.3S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 31.1S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 36.7S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 43.1E.
26JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
229 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.//
0823011306 81S 812E 20
0823011312 78S 811E 25
0823011318 76S 808E 25
0823011400 75S 806E 30
0823011406 75S 803E 25
0823011412 77S 802E 25
0823011418 80S 801E 25
0823011500 84S 800E 25
0823011506 93S 797E 25
0823011512 103S 791E 20
0823011518 111S 777E 20
0823011600 118S 759E 20
0823011606 120S 734E 20
0823011612 120S 700E 20
0823011618 121S 673E 25
0823011700 124S 645E 25
0823011706 127S 621E 30
0823011712 135S 600E 30
0823011718 141S 580E 35
0823011800 141S 562E 40
0823011806 138S 543E 45
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011906 147S 504E 40
0823011912 153S 496E 35
0823011918 159S 488E 35
0823012000 163S 479E 30
0823012006 164S 474E 30
0823012012 166S 467E 25
0823012018 172S 464E 25
0823012100 175S 462E 20
0823012106 182S 462E 20
0823012112 187S 457E 20
0823012118 189S 453E 20
0823012200 190S 444E 25
0823012206 193S 437E 25
0823012212 196S 442E 25
0823012218 200S 445E 25
0823012222 205S 448E 25
0823012300 206S 447E 25
0823012306 205S 444E 25
0823012312 205S 438E 25
0823012318 205S 432E 30
0823012400 201S 427E 35
0823012406 199S 428E 40
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012518 196S 431E 75
0823012518 196S 431E 75
0823012518 196S 431E 75
0823012600 196S 432E 75
0823012600 196S 432E 75
0823012600 196S 432E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 43.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 43.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.2S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.1S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.2S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.5S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.3S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 31.1S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 36.7S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 43.1E.
26JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
229 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260041
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/5/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.6 S / 43.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 959 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 175 SO: 205 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/01/2023 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 360 SO: 405 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 27/01/2023 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SO: 415 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 27/01/2023 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 465 SO: 390 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 28/01/2023 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 350 SO: 295 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 28/01/2023 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 370 SO: 295 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75

72H: 29/01/2023 00 UTC: 27.3 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 360 SO: 295 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 175 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/01/2023 00 UTC: 30.9 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 345 SO: 620 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 285 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

120H: 31/01/2023 00 UTC: 36.4 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 585 SO: 510 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 415 SO: 305 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 120

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL DE
CHENESO S'EST MAINTENUE PRESENTANT TOUTEFOIS QUELQUES SIGNES DE
FAIBLESSE DU LA STATIONNARITE DU SYSTEME ET A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES LAISSENT
CEPENDANT UN CONTEXTE A L'INTENSITIFCATION ET L'ANALYSE DVORAK DE
5.0+ PERMET D'ESTIMER DES VENTS MOYENNES SUR 10MIN A 80KT, AU STADE E
CYCLONE TROPICAL. SUR LES DERNIERS INSTANTS, CHENESO A PRIS UNE
DIRECTION VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST EN LONGEANT LES COTES MALGACHES A
PRES DE 120KM. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE LOIN AU NORD DU SYSTEME EST
NOTABLE ET APPORTE DE FORTES PRECIPITATIONS SUR LES COTES MALGACHES.

L'INFLUENCE DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES COMMENCE A FAIBLIR ET
LA TENDANCE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE DE CHENESO DISPARAIT AU PROFIT D'UNE
COMPOSANTE SUD-SUD-OUEST QUI SE MET EN PLACE. LA DISTANCE DE PASSAGE
AU PLUS PROCHE DE 100 KM SEMBLE DEFINIE. EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE
JEUDI, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE CONTINUE DE FAIBLIR AU SUD-OUEST ET LA
DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME PREND UN PEU PLUS DE VIGUEUR, ORIENTANT LA
TRAJECTOIRE PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST. PAR LA SUITE, A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, LA
TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTE PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST EN
S'ACCELERANT POUR S'EVACUER VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD. A CES
ECHEANCES DE PLUS DE 72H, L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
AUGMENTE BIEN QUE L'ORIENTATION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE RESTE ASSEZ BIEN
DEFINIE.

LE SYSTEME RESTE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE DU POINT DE VUE
ATMOSPHERIQUE, FAVORISANT UNE TENDANCE GENERALE A L'INTENSIFICATION
JUSQU'A SAMEDI. NEANMOINS SA STATIONNARITE AU COURS DES PRECEDENTES
HEURES SUR LES MEMES EAUX LIMITE SON DEVELOPPEMENT A COURT TERME EN
LIEN AVEC UN PHENOMENE D'UPWELLING. UNE REPRISE PLUS FRANCHE DE
L'INTENSIFICATION EST ATTENDUE LORSQUE LE SYSTEME REPRENDRA SON
DEPLACEMENT. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EST AINSI ENVISAGE
ENTRE LA FIN DE JOURNEE DE JEUDI ET SAMEDI AVEC UNE PERIODE
D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE FORT PROBABLE. NEANMOINS, DES MECANISMES
INTERNES, COMME UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL, POURRAIENT
AUSSI INTERVENIR POUR MODULER L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. ENTRE
DIMANCHE ET SURTOUT LUNDI, LA CIRCULATION DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX DE
PLUS EN PLUS FRAICHES ET LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT COUPLEE A UNE
INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN LIEN AVEC UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
DEVRAIENT AMORCER UNE TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- S'AJOUTANT AUX FORTES PLUIES DEJA TOMBEES, LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER
SUR LES REGIONS LITTORALES DU CENTRE-OUEST PRINCIPALEMENT AVEC DES
LAMES D'EAU EXCEDANT LES 150 MM SUR LA PERIODE, NOTAMMENT BIEN AU
NORD DU SYSTEME.

- UN EPISODE DE VENTS FORTS AVEC DES RAFALES PROCHES DES 100KM/H EST
EN COURS SUR DES PORTIONS DE LA COTE ENTRE MORONDAVA ET LE CAP
SAINT-VINCENT ET DEVRAIT SE PROLONGER JUSQU'A JEUDI. DES VENTS
LOCALEMENT DESTRUCTEURS AVEC DES RAFALES ATTEIGNANT LES 130KM/H NE
SONT PAS COMPLETEMENT EXCLUS EN CAS D'UN SYSTEME PASSANT UN PEU PLUS
PRES DES COTES.

- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX DE 4 A 6M) CONCERNE LES REGIONS ENTRE
MAINTIRANO ET LE CAP SAINT-VINCENT D'ICI DEMAIN.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX PROCHES DE 4M) EST PROBABLE JEUDI
D'INHAMBANE JUSQU'A L'ILE DE MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/5/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 43.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 959 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/26 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 360 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2023/01/27 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SW: 415 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2023/01/27 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 465 SW: 390 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2023/01/28 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2023/01/28 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75

72H: 2023/01/29 00 UTC: 27.3 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/30 00 UTC: 30.9 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 345 SW: 620 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 285 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2023/01/31 00 UTC: 36.4 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 585 SW: 510 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 415 SW: 305 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CHENESO EYE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED WITH SOME SIGNS OF WEAKNESS DUE TO THE STATIONARITY OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE WEAKENING OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS LEAVE HOWEVER A CONTEXT TO THE INTENSIFICATION AND THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 5.0+ ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE AVERAGE WINDS ON 10MIN AT
80KT, AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN THE LAST MOMENTS, CHENESO
TOOK A SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST DIRECTION ALONG THE MALAGASY COAST AT ABOUT
120KM. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FAR NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOTABLE AND
BRINGS HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE MALAGASY COASTS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND THE QUASI-STATIONARY CHENESO TREND DISAPPEARS IN FAVOR OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT THAT IS BEING SET UP. THE DISTANCE OF
PASSAGE AT THE CLOSEST OF 100 KM SEEMS TO BE DEFINED. DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TO THE
SOUTH-WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM TAKES A LITTLE
MORE STRENGTH, DIRECTING THE TRACK MORE FRANKLY TO THE SOUTH-WEST.
THEREAFTER, FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH,
THE TRACK TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES. AT THESE INTERVALS OF MORE THAN 72 HOURS, THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT INCREASES ALTHOUGH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED.

THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC
POINT OF VIEW, FAVORING A GENERAL TENDENCY TO INTENSIFY UNTIL
SATURDAY. NEVERTHELESS, ITS STATIONARITY DURING THE LAST HOURS ON THE
SAME WATERS LIMITS ITS SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT IN CONNECTION WITH AN
UPWELLING PHENOMENON. A CLEARER RESUMPTION OF THE INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED WHEN THE SYSTEM RESUMES ITS MOVEMENT. THE STAGE OF INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THUS ENVISAGED BETWEEN THE END OF THE DAY OF
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD OF FAST INTENSIFICATION VERY
LIKELY. NEVERTHELESS, INTERNAL MECHANISMS, SUCH AS A REPLACEMENT
CYCLE OF THE EYEWALL, COULD ALSO INTERVENE TO MODULATE THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY,
THE CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER INCREASINGLY COOL WATERS AND THE
INCREASE IN SHEAR COUPLED WITH AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR LINKED TO A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- IN ADDITION TO THE RECENTLY OBSERVED RAIN TOTALS, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CENTRAL WEST, WITH
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 150 MM OVER THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.

- AN SEVERE WINDS EPISODE WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 100KM/H IS UNDERWAY ON
PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN MORONDAVA AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY. LOCALLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 130KM/H ARE NOT COMPLETELY EXCLUDED IN CASE OF A SYSTEM
PASSING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

- DANGEROUS SEA (WAVES FROM TO 4 TO 6M) ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
MAINTIRANO AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT UNTIL THURSDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- DANGEROUS SEA (WAVE NEAR 4M) IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FROM INHAMBANE
TO MOZAMBIQUE ISLAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 260005
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 26/01/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CHENESO) 959 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 43.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO MORE THAN 300 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/26 AT 12 UTC:
20.4 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/27 AT 00 UTC:
21.5 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251841
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/5/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 43.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 967 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 175 SO: 205 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/01/2023 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 185 SO: 360 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 26/01/2023 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SO: 470 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 240 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 27/01/2023 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 435 SO: 425 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 27/01/2023 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SO: 390 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 28/01/2023 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 380 SO: 305 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

72H: 28/01/2023 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 455 SO: 305 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/01/2023 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 370 SO: 295 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SO: 195 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

120H: 30/01/2023 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 380 SO: 345 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL DE
CHENESO S'EST CONSOLIDEE MAIS CONTINUE DE PRESENTER UN OEIL ASSEZ
LARGE ET DECHIQUETE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK DE 4.5+ PEUT ETRE FAITE
PERMETTANT D'ESTIMER DES VENTS MOYENNES SUR 10MIN A 70KT, EN LEGERE
AUGMENTATION. AU COURS DES 6H, CHENESO A PRIS UNE DIRECTION NORD-EST
PUIS SEMBLE RALENTIR DE NOUVEAU SA TRAJECTOIRE EN ENTAMANT UN VIRAGE
VERS L'EST. CHENESO CONSERVE DONC UN DEPLACEMENT LENT ET SE LOCALISE
A MOINS DE 120KM DES COTES MALGACHES AU LARGE DE LA REGION DE
MORONDAVA.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION : AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
12-18H SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, CHENESO
CONTINUE A FAIRE DU QUASI-STATIONNAIRE AVEC UNE LEGERE TENDANCE A
REALISER UNE BOUCLE VERS L'EST LE RAPPROCHAMENT PLUS OU MOINS DES
COTES MALGACHES. BIEN QUE LA DISPERSION ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES
GUIDANCES RESTE MODESTE, LA PROXIMITE DES COTES MALGACHES LAISSE UNE
INFLUENCE POUVANT ETRE ASSEZ DIFFERENTE. LA DISTANCE DE PASSAGE RESTE
ASSEZ INCERTAINE : PROCHE DE 100 KM, MAIS UN SCENARIO PLUS PESSIMISTE
N'EST PAS EXCLU. EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE JEUDI, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE FAIBLIT AU SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME
PREND UN PEU PLUS DE VIGUEUR, ORIENTANT LA TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST. PAR LA SUITE, A PARTIR DE SAMEDI A
L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTE
PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST EN S'ACCELERANT POUR S'EVACUER VERS
LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD. A CES ECHEANCES DE PLUS DE 72H, L'INCERTITUDE
SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT AUGMENTE BIEN QUE L'ORIENTATION DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE RESTE ASSEZ BIEN DEFINIE.

LE SYSTEME RESTE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE DU POINT DE VUE
ATMOSPHERIQUE, FAVORISANT UNE TENDANCE GENERALE A L'INTENSIFICATION
JUSQU'A SAMEDI. NEANMOINS SA STATIONNARITE SUR LES MEMES EAUX EST
SUSCEPTIBLE DE LIMITER SON DEVELOPPEMENT A COURT TERME EN LIEN AVEC
UN PHENOMENE D'UPWELLING. UNE REPRISE PLUS FRANCHE DE
L'INTENSIFICATION EST ATTENDUE LORSQUE LE SYSTEME REPRENDRA SON
DEPLACEMENT. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EST AINSI ENVISAGE
ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI AVEC UNE PERIODE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE
FORT PROBABLE. NEANMOINS, DES MECANISMES INTERNES, COMME UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL, POURRAIENT AUSSI INTERVENIR POUR
MODULER L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. ENTRE DIMANCHE ET SURTOUT
LUNDI, LA CIRCULATION DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX DE PLUS EN PLUS
FRAICHES ET LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT COUPLEE A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR
SEC EN LIEN AVEC UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES DEVRAIENT AMORCER
UNE TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- S'AJOUTANT AUX FORTES PLUIES DEJA TOMBEES, LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER
SUR LES REGIONS LITTORALES DU CENTRE-OUEST PRINCIPALEMENT AVEC DES
LAMES D'EAU EXCEDANT LES 150 MM SUR LA PERIODE.

- UN EPISODE DE VENTS FORTS (DE LA GAMME DU COUP DE VENT) EST EN
COURS SUR DES PORTIONS DE LA COTE ENTRE MORONDAVA ET LE CAP
SAINT-VINCENT ET DEVRAIT SE PROLONGER JUSQU'A JEUDI. DES VENTS
LOCALEMENT DESTRUCTEURS (FORCE TEMPETE) NE SONT PAS COMPLETEMENT
EXCLUS EN CAS D'UN SYSTEME PASSANT UN PEU PLUS PRES DES COTES.

- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX DE 4 A 6M) CONCERNE LES REGIONS ENTRE
MAINTIRANO ET LE CAP SAINT-VINCENT D'ICI DEMAIN.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX PROCHES DE 4M) EST PROBABLE JEUDI
D'INHAMBANE JUSQU'A L'ILE DE MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251841
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/5/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 43.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/26 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 185 SW: 360 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2023/01/26 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 470 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/01/27 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 435 SW: 425 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2023/01/27 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SW: 390 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2023/01/28 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 380 SW: 305 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

72H: 2023/01/28 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 455 SW: 305 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/29 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

120H: 2023/01/30 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 380 SW: 345 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CHENESO EYE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
CONSOLIDATED BUT CONTINUES TO PRESENT A RATHER LARGE AND RAGGED EYE.
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 4.5+ CAN BE DONE TO ESTIMATE AVERAGE WINDS
OVER 10MIN AT 70KT, SLIGHTLY INCREASING. DURING THE 6H, CHENESO TOOK
A NORTHEAST DIRECTION THEN SEEMS TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN ITS TRACK BY
STARTING A TURN TOWARDS THE EAST. CHENESO IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY AND
IS LOCATED LESS THAN 120KM FROM THE MALAGASY COAST OFF THE MORONDAVA
AREA.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST: DURING THE NEXT 12-18H UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS, CHENESO CONTINUES TO BE
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TO MAKE A LOOP TOWARDS THE
EAST APPROACHING THE MALAGASY COASTS MORE OR LESS. ALTHOUGH THE
DISPERSION BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDELINES REMAINS MODEST, THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MALAGASY COASTS LEAVES AN INFLUENCE THAT CAN BE
QUITE DIFFERENT. THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN:
CLOSE TO 100 KM, BUT A MORE PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO IS NOT EXCLUDED.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM TAKES A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTH, DIRECTING THE TRACK MORE FRANKLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, THE
TRACK TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES. AT THESE INTERVALS OF MORE THAN 72 HOURS, THE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT INCREASES ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THE
TRACK REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED.

THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC
POINT OF VIEW, FAVORING A GENERAL TENDENCY TO INTENSIFY UNTIL
SATURDAY. NEVERTHELESS, ITS STATIONARITY ON THE SAME WATERS IS LIKELY
TO LIMIT ITS DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM IN CONNECTION WITH AN
UPWELLING PHENOMENON. A MORE DEFINITE RESUMPTION OF THE
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED WHEN THE SYSTEM RESUMES ITS MOVEMENT. THE
STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THUS ENVISAGED BETWEEN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION VERY LIKELY.
NEVERTHELESS, INTERNAL MECHANISMS, SUCH AS A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE
EYEWALL, COULD ALSO INTERVENE TO MODULATE THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY, THE CIRCULATION OF THE
SYSTEM OVER INCREASINGLY COOL WATERS AND THE INCREASE IN SHEAR
COUPLED WITH AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR LINKED TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
SHOULD INITIATE AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- IN ADDITION TO THE RECENTLY OBSERVED RAIN TOTALS, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CENTRAL WEST, WITH
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 150 MM OVER THE PERIOD.

- A SEVERE WINDS EPISODE (IN THE GALE RANGE) IS UNDERWAY ON PARTS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN MORONDAVA AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THRUSDAY. LOCAL DESTRUCTIVE WINDS (STORM FORCE) CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN CASE OF A TRACK MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST.

- DANGEROUS SEA (WAVES FROM TO 4 TO 6M) ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
MAINTIRANO AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT UNTIL THURSDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- DANGEROUS SEA (WAVE NEAR 4M) IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FROM INHAMBANE
TO MOZAMBIQUE ISLAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 251801
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 25/01/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CHENESO) 967 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 43.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO MORE THAN 250 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/26 AT 06 UTC:
20.1 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/26 AT 18 UTC:
20.8 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 255 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230125140219
2023012512 08S CHENESO 008 01 360 01 SATL 030
T000 199S 0429E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 200S 0427E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 204S 0423E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 213S 0416E 090 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 224S 0410E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 254S 0409E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 290S 0451E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 323S 0522E 060 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 19.9S 42.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 42.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.0S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.4S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.3S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.4S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.4S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 29.0S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 32.3S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 42.8E.
25JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
205 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 251200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.//
0823011306 81S 812E 20
0823011312 78S 811E 25
0823011318 76S 808E 25
0823011400 75S 806E 30
0823011406 75S 803E 25
0823011412 77S 802E 25
0823011418 80S 801E 25
0823011500 84S 800E 25
0823011506 93S 797E 25
0823011512 103S 791E 20
0823011518 111S 777E 20
0823011600 118S 759E 20
0823011606 120S 734E 20
0823011612 120S 700E 20
0823011618 121S 673E 25
0823011700 124S 645E 25
0823011706 127S 621E 30
0823011712 135S 600E 30
0823011718 141S 580E 35
0823011800 141S 562E 40
0823011806 138S 543E 45
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011906 147S 504E 40
0823011912 153S 496E 35
0823011918 159S 488E 35
0823012000 163S 479E 30
0823012006 164S 474E 30
0823012012 166S 467E 25
0823012018 172S 464E 25
0823012100 175S 462E 20
0823012106 182S 462E 20
0823012112 187S 457E 20
0823012118 189S 453E 20
0823012200 190S 444E 25
0823012206 193S 437E 25
0823012212 196S 442E 25
0823012218 200S 445E 25
0823012222 205S 448E 25
0823012300 206S 447E 25
0823012306 205S 444E 25
0823012312 205S 438E 25
0823012318 205S 432E 30
0823012400 201S 427E 35
0823012406 199S 428E 40
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 75
0823012506 200S 429E 75
0823012506 200S 429E 75
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 19.9S 42.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 42.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.0S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.4S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.3S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.4S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.4S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 29.0S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 32.3S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 42.8E.
25JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
205 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 251200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251241
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/5/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.0 S / 42.9 E
(VINGT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 175 SO: 205 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/01/2023 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SO: 315 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 26/01/2023 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SO: 415 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 230 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

36H: 27/01/2023 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SO: 415 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 27/01/2023 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 455 SO: 380 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 28/01/2023 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 345 SO: 315 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 28/01/2023 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 390 SO: 285 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/01/2023 12 UTC: 28.5 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 345 SO: 295 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

120H: 30/01/2023 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 360 SO: 425 NO: 480
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SO: 195 NO: 285
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 90

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

DEPUIS CE MATIN, CHENESO A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE
A FORT ENROULEMENT, MAIS QUI A MONTRE UNE PETITE FAIBLESSE TEMPORAIRE
EN MILIEU DE JOURNEE, AVANT UN REGAIN D'ORGANISATION DEPUIS LE MILIEU
D'APRES-MIDI QUI EVOLUE DEPUIS 12UTC VERS UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL
EN BANDE PUIS EN OEIL, AVEC UN DT FLUCTUANT ENTRE 4.0 ET 4.5. LA
PLUPART DES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES MONTRENT UNE INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME DEPUIS CE MATIN. L'INTENSITE EST AINSI AUGMENTEE AU STADE
MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME RESTE PEU MOBILE A
ENVIRON 140 KM DES COTES DE MADAGASCAR AU LARGE DE LA REGION DE
MORONDAVA.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE CONTINUE D'ETRE ASSEZ INCERTAINE DES LES
PREMIERES ECHEANCES : AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12 A 24H, LE SYSTEME
DEVAIT CONTINUER A PEU SE DEPLACER SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES (MOUVEMENT VERS L'EST/SUD-EST LIE A UNE
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE, MAIS FREINE PAR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR VERS
L'OUEST/NORD-OUEST LIE A UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE). LA TRAJECTOIRE
POURRAIT AINSI SE RAPPROCHER DAVANTAGE DES COTES MALGACHES ENTRE
CETTE NUIT ET LA JOURNEE DE JEUDI, AVEC UNE DISTANCE DE PASSAGE QUI
RESTE TRES INCERTAINE (PROCHE DE 100 KM DANS LA PRESENTE PREVISION,
MAIS UN SCENARIO PLUS PESSIMISTE N'EST PAS EXCLU). A PARTIR DE JEUDI,
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE FAIBLIT AU SUD-OUEST ET UNE DORSALE SE
CONSTRUIT A L'EST DU SYSTEME, ORIENTANT LA TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST, SE RECOURBANT ENSUITE VERS LE SUD-EST
A PARTIR DE SAMEDI A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

LE SYSTEME EST DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE DU POINT DE VUE
ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE, FAVORISANT UNE TENDANCE GENERALE A
L'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A SAMEDI. NEANMOINS SA STATIONNARITE DURABLE
SUR LES MEMES EAUX EST SUSCEPTIBLE DE LIMITER SON DEVELOPPEMENT A
COURT TERME EN LIEN AVEC UN PHENOMENE D'UPWELLING. UNE REPRISE PLUS
FRANCHE DE L'INTENSIFICATION EST ATTENDUE LORSQUE LE SYSTEME
REPRENDRA SON DEPLACEMENT. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EST
AINSI ENVISAGE ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI. NEANMOINS, DES MECANISMES
INTERNES, COMME UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL, POURRAIENT
AUSSI INTERVENIR POUR TEMPERER L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. ENTRE
DIMANCHE ET SURTOUT LUNDI, LA CIRCULATION DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX DE
PLUS EN PLUS FRAICHES ET LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT COUPLEE A UNE
INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN LIEN AVEC UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
DEVRAIENT AMORCER UNE TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- S'AJOUTANT AUX FORTES PLUIES DEJA TOMBEES, LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER
SUR LES REGIONS LITTORALES DU CENTRE-OUEST PRINCIPALEMENT AVEC DES
LAMES D'EAU EXCEDANT LES 150 MM SUR LA PERIODE.

- UN EPISODE DE VENTS FORTS (DE LA GAMME DU COUP DE VENT) EST EN
COURS SUR DES PORTIONS DE LA COTE ENTRE MORONDAVA ET LE CAP
SAINT-VINCENT ET DEVRAIT SE PROLONGER JUSQU'A DEMAIN. DES VENTS
LOCALEMENT DESTRUCTEURS (FORCE TEMPETE) NE SONT PAS COMPLETEMENT
EXCLUS EN CAS D'UN SYSTEME PASSANT UN PEU PLUS PRES DES COTES.

- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX DE 4 A 6M) CONCERNE LES REGIONS ENTRE
MAINTIRANO ET LE CAP SAINT-VINCENT D'ICI DEMAIN.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX PROCHES DE 4M) EST PROBABLE JEUDI
D'INHAMBANE JUSQU'A L'ILE DE MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/5/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 42.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/26 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SW: 315 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2023/01/26 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 415 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2023/01/27 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 415 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2023/01/27 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 455 SW: 380 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2023/01/28 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 345 SW: 315 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2023/01/28 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 390 SW: 285 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/29 12 UTC: 28.5 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 345 SW: 295 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

120H: 2023/01/30 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 360 SW: 425 NW: 480
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 285
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 90

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

SINCE THIS MORNING, CHENESO HAS MAINTAINED A HIGH-END CURVED BAND
PATTERN, BUT WITH A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS AROUND MIDDAY, BEFORE A
RENEWED ORGANIZATION SINCE MID-AFTERNOON WHICH IS NOW EVOLVING SINCE
12UTC INTO AN BANDED-EYE THEN EYE PATTERN, WITH A DT BETWEEN 4.0 AND
4.5. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MAINLY SHOW AN INTENSIFICATION TREND SINCE
THIS MORNING. THE INTENSITY IS THUS INCREASED TO MINIMAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS SLOW-MOVING ABOUT 140
KM OFF THE MALAGASY COAST OFF THE MORONDAVA AREA.

THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER UNCERTAIN FROM THE FIRST
FORECAST STAGES : DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS (EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT LINKED TO A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH IS OFFSET BY THE WEST/NORTHWESTWARD
STEERING FLOW LINKED TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE). THE TRACK COULD THUS
GET CLOSER TO THE MALAGASY COAST BETWEEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, AT A
DISTANCE REMAINING VERY UNCERTAIN (CLOSE TO 100 KM IN THE PRESENT
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH A MORE PESSIMISTIC OPTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT).
FROM THURSDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A
RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, DIRECTING THE TRACK MORE
FRANKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST, THEN CURVING SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT,
FAVORING A GENERAL INTENSIFICATION TREND UNTIL SATURDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, ITS LONG-LASTING STATIONARITY ON THE SAME WATERS IS
LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO UPWELLING.
STEADIER INTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESUME ONCE THE SYSTEM STARTS TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS FROM THURSDAY. INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE IS THUS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, INTERNAL
MECHANISMS, SUCH AS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, COULD ALSO POSSIBLY
TEMPER ITS INTENSIFICATION. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY,
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOL WATERS AND WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS LINKED TO A MID-LATITUDE
TRUOGH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD START ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- IN ADDITION TO THE RECENTLY OBSERVED RAIN TOTALS, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CENTRAL WEST, WITH
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 150 MM OVER THE PERIOD.

- A SEVERE WINDS EPISODE (IN THE GALE RANGE) IS UNDERWAY ON PARTS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN MORONDAVA AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL TOMORROW. LOCAL DESTRUCTIVE WINDS (STORM FORCE) CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN CASE OF A TRACK MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST.

- DANGEROUS SEA (WAVES FROM TO 4 TO 6M) ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
MAINTIRANO AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT UNTIL THURSDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- DANGEROUS SEA (WAVE NEAR 4M) IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FROM INHAMBANE
TO MOZAMBIQUE ISLAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 251219
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 25/01/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CHENESO) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 42.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO MORE THAN 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/26 AT 00 UTC:
20.1 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/26 AT 12 UTC:
20.9 S / 42.5 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 250639
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/5/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.1 S / 43.0 E
(VINGT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/01/2023 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SO: 415 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 26/01/2023 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 380 SO: 490 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 26/01/2023 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SO: 490 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 250 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 27/01/2023 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 435 SO: 455 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 27/01/2023 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 390 SO: 390 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

72H: 28/01/2023 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 350 SO: 315 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/01/2023 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 345 SO: 350 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 30/01/2023 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 435 SO: 595 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 305 SO: 305 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE CHENESO
A CONTINUE A OSCILLER ENTRE UN OEIL DECHIQUETE ET UNE BANDE INCURVEE
A FORT ENROULEMENT, MAIS DISCONTINUE PAR MOMENTS. L'ANALYSE DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE MOYENNEE SUR 3 HEURES EST DE 4.0+. UNE PASSE SAR A 0244Z
(MAIS DISPONIBLE APRES 06UTC) INDIQUE UN VMAX A 65/70KT (VENTS
1-MIN), DONC PROCHE DE 60KT EN VENTS 10-MIN. CELA CONFORTE UNE
ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE DANS LE HAUT DU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE, RESTANT INFERIEURE AUX ESTIMATIONS SATCON/ADT QUI SEMBLENT
UN PEU SURESTIMER. LES DONNEES SAR PERMETTRONT AUSSI D'AFFINER LES
EXTENSIONS DE VENTS AU PROCHAIN BULLETIN CMRS DE 12UTC. LA FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE CHENESO RESTE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE, AVEC UNE TRES
LEGERE DERIVE VERS L'EST, ET SE SITUE A 120/130 KM DES COTES DE
MADAGASCAR, AU LARGE DE MORONDAVA.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE CONTINUE D'ETRE UN PEU PLUS INCERTAINE
QUE D'HABITUDE COMPTE TENU D'UNE DISPERSION TOUJOURS ASSEZ FORTE
AFFICHEE PAR LES GUIDANCES NUMERIQUES DES LES PREMIERES ECHEANCES: AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 A 36H, LE SYSTEME DEVAIT CONTINUER A PEU SE
DEPLACER SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES
(MOUVEMENT VERS L'EST/SUD-EST LIE A UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE,
MAIS EN COMPETITION AVEC UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI APPORTE AU
CONTRAIRE UN FLUX DIRECTEUR VERS L'OUEST). LES DERNIERS MODELES ONT
TENDANCE A RAPPROCHER DAVANTAGE LA TRAJECTOIRE DE LA COTE MALGACHE
ENTRE CE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI, CE QUI A ETE PARTIELLEMENT PRIS EN
COMPTE DANS LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS MAIS RESTE ENCORE A SURVEILLER DE
PRES. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE FAIBLIT AU SUD-OUEST
ET UNE DORSALE SE CONSTRUIT A L'EST DU SYSTEME. UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
FRANCHE S'ETABLIT ALORS EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST, SE
RECOURBANT ENSUITE VERS LE SUD-EST CE WEEK-END A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

LE SYSTEME EST DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE DU POINT DE VUE
ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE ET IL EST TRES PROBABLE QUE CHENESO
DEVIENNE UN CYCLONE TROPICAL D'ICI CE MERCREDI SOIR. NEANMOINS SA
STATIONNARITE DURABLE SUR LES MEMES EAUX EST SUSCEPTIBLE DE LIMITER
SON DEVELOPPEMENT. UNE PAUSE DANS L'INTENSIFICATION EST DONC SUGGEREE
AVANT UNE REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION LORSQUE LE SYSTEME REPRENDRA
SON DEPLACEMENT. DES MECANISMES INTERNES, COMME UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL, POURRAIT AUSSI INTERVENIR POUR
TEMPERER L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- S'AJOUTANT AUX FORTES PLUIES DEJA TOMBEES, LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER
SUR LES REGIONS LITTORALES DU CENTRE-OUEST PRINCIPALEMENT AVEC DES
LAMES D'EAU EXCEDANT LES 150 MM SUR LA PERIODE.

- UN EPISODE DE VENTS FORTS (DE LA GAMME DU COUP DE VENT) EST EN
COURS SUR DES PORTIONS DE LA COTE ENTRE MONRONDAVA ET LE CAP
SAINT-VINCENT ET DEVRAIT SE PROLONGER JUSQU'A DEMAIN.

- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX DE 4 A 6M) CONCERNE LES REGIONS ENTRE
MAINTIRANO AU CAP SAINT-VINCENT D'ICI DEMAIN.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX PROCHES A 4M) EST PROBABLE JEUDI
D'INHAMBANE JUSQU'A L'ILE DE MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 250639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/5/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 43.0 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/25 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SW: 415 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2023/01/26 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 380 SW: 490 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/01/26 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 490 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/01/27 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 435 SW: 455 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2023/01/27 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 390 SW: 390 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

72H: 2023/01/28 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 350 SW: 315 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/29 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 345 SW: 350 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2023/01/30 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 435 SW: 595 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CHENESO'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS KEPT OSCILLATING
BETWWEEN A RAGGED EYE AND A LONG-WRAPPED CURVED BAND. AVERAGED
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES GIVES A DT OF 4.0+. A 0244Z SAR PASS SHOWS
MAX WINDS AROUND 65/70KT (1-MIN), NAMELY NEAR 60KT AS FOR 10-MIN
WINDS. THIS SUGGESTS CHENESO IS STILL AT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE,
SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE SATCON/ADT ESTIMATES WHICH SEEM TO
OVERESTIMATE. THE RECENT SAR DATA WILL ALSO ENABLE TO PRECISE A BIT
MORE THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE AND WIND EXTENSIONS ON THE NEXT 12UTC
ADVISORY. CHENESO'S CENTER REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY, ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY DRIFTING EASTWARDS, AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 120/130 KM OFF THE
MALAGASY COAST, NEAR MORONDAVA.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS STILL A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL,
CONSIDERING QUITE STRONG DISPERSION IN NWP GUIDANCE, EVEN AT SHORT
RANGE : DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SHOULD
REMAIN SLOW DUE TO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS (EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT LINKED TO A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, BUT IN COMPETITION WITH A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DRIVES A WESTWARD STEERING FLOW, ON THE
CONTRARY). THE LATEST MODELS TEND TO BRING THE TRACK A BIT CLOSER TO
THE MALAGASY COAST BETWEEN THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY, WHICH
HAS BEEN PARTIALLY TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE LAST RSMC TRACK BUT
STILL REMAINS TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. FROM THURSDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WEAKENS TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM MORE FRANKLY SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN
THE TRACK SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARDS THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENT AND IT IS NOW VERY LIKELY THAT CHENESO WILL BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING. NEVERTHELESS, ITS LONG
TERM STATIONARITY ON THE SAME WATERS IS LIKELY TO LIMIT ITS
DEVELOPMENT. A PAUSE IN THE INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE FORECAST
BEFORE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE SYSTEM RESUMES ITS MOVEMENT.
SOME INTERNAL MECHANISMS, SUCH AS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, COULD
ALSO TEMPER INTENSIFICATION.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- IN ADDITION TO THE RECENTLY OBSERVED RAIN TOTALS, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CENTRAL WEST, WITH
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 150 MM OVER THE PERIOD.

- A STRONG WINDS EPISODE (IN THE GALE RANGE) IS UNDERWAY ON PARTS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN MONRONDAVA AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL TOMORROW.

- DANGEROUS SEA (WAVES FROM TO 4 TO 6M) BETWEEN MAINTIRANO AND CAPE
SAINT-VINCENT UNTIL THURSDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- DANGEROUS SEA (WAVE NEAR 4M) IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FROM INHAMBANE
TO MOZAMBIQUE ISLAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 250622
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 25/01/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 43.0 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO MORE THAN 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/25 AT 18 UTC:
20.2 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/26 AT 06 UTC:
20.4 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 265 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230125012726
2023012500 08S CHENESO 007 01 090 01 SATL 060
T000 201S 0430E 070 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 200S 0430E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 199S 0428E 080 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 202S 0424E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 212S 0416E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 237S 0401E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 269S 0423E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 304S 0485E 070 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 170 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 20.1S 43.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 43.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.0S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.9S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.2S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.2S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.7S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 26.9S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 30.4S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 43.0E.
25JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
201 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.
//
0823011306 81S 812E 20
0823011312 78S 811E 25
0823011318 76S 808E 25
0823011400 75S 806E 30
0823011406 75S 803E 25
0823011412 77S 802E 25
0823011418 80S 801E 25
0823011500 84S 800E 25
0823011506 93S 797E 25
0823011512 103S 791E 20
0823011518 111S 777E 20
0823011600 118S 759E 20
0823011606 120S 734E 20
0823011612 120S 700E 20
0823011618 121S 673E 25
0823011700 124S 645E 25
0823011706 127S 621E 30
0823011712 135S 600E 30
0823011718 141S 580E 35
0823011800 141S 562E 40
0823011806 138S 543E 45
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011906 147S 504E 40
0823011912 153S 496E 35
0823011918 159S 488E 35
0823012000 163S 479E 30
0823012006 164S 474E 30
0823012012 166S 467E 25
0823012018 172S 464E 25
0823012100 175S 462E 20
0823012106 182S 462E 20
0823012112 187S 457E 20
0823012118 189S 453E 20
0823012200 190S 444E 25
0823012206 193S 437E 25
0823012212 196S 442E 25
0823012218 200S 445E 25
0823012222 205S 448E 25
0823012300 206S 447E 25
0823012306 205S 444E 25
0823012312 205S 438E 25
0823012318 205S 432E 30
0823012400 201S 427E 35
0823012406 199S 427E 40
0823012412 201S 429E 60
0823012412 201S 429E 60
0823012418 201S 429E 65
0823012418 201S 429E 65
0823012418 201S 429E 65
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 20.1S 43.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 43.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.0S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.9S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.2S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.2S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.7S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 26.9S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 30.4S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 43.0E.
25JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
201 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 250047
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/5/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.0 S / 43.0 E
(VINGT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 2.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SO: 70 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/01/2023 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SO: 360 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 26/01/2023 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SO: 445 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 26/01/2023 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SO: 370 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 27/01/2023 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SO: 390 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 27/01/2023 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 350 SO: 405 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 28/01/2023 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/01/2023 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 335 SO: 305 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

120H: 30/01/2023 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 335 SO: 555 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 270 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE CHENESO A OSCILLE ENTRE OEIL DECHIQUETE
ET BANDE INCURVEE. GLOBALEMENT ELLE EST EN AMELIORATION ET L'ENSEMBLE
DES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE SONT A LA
HAUSSE. L'INTENSITE EST DONC ESTIMEE A 60 KT EN BON ACCORD AVEC LES
ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES (57-70 KT 10-MIN) ET OBJECTIVES (ADT/AIDT A
60-65 KT 10-MIN - SATCON A 60 KT 10-MIN). UNE PASS SAR SENTINELLE
ACQUISE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES DEVRAIT PERMETTRE DE MIEUX ESTIMER
L'INTENSITE ET LA STRUCTURE DU COEUR DE CE SYSTEME.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE GLOBALE MAIS LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE CONTINUE D'ETRE UN PEU PLUS INCERTAINE QUE D'HABITUDE
COMPTE TENU D'UNE DISPERSION TOUJOURS ASSEZ FORTE AFFICHEE PAR LES
GUIDANCES NUMERIQUES DES LES PREMIERES ECHEANCES: CHENESO DEVRAIT
AVOIR SA TRAJECTOIRE PILOTEE PAR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR D'EST A SUD-EST DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE GENERE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD
DU SYSTEME. L'ACTION DE CETTE DORSALE SERA TOUTEFOIS CONTRECARRER PAR
LA PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD IMPRIMANT UN
FLUX DIRECTEUR CONTRADICTOIRE D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST. EN RESULTANTE, AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 A 36H, LE SYSTEME DEVAIT CONTINUER A PEU SE
DEPLACER. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE FAIBLIT AU
SUD-OUEST ET UNE DORSALE SE CONSTRUIT A L'EST DU SYSTEME. UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PLUS FRANCHE S'ETABLIT ALORS EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
SUD-OUEST, SE RECOURBANT ENSUITE CE WEEK-END VERS LE SUD PUIS LE
SUD-EST A L'AVANT D'UN PROFOND TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLE
DU POINT DE VUE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE ET IL EST MAINTENANT TRES
PROBABLE QUE CHENESO DEVIENNE UN CYCLONE TROPICAL A PLUS OU MOINS
BREVE ECHEANCE. NEANMOINS SA STATIONNARITE DURABLE SUR LES MEMES EAUX
EST SUSCEPTIBLE DE LIMITER SON DEVELOPPEMENT. UNE PAUSE DANS
L'INTENSIFICATION EST DONC SUGGEREE AVANT UNE REPRISE DE
L'INTENSIFICATION LORSQUE LE SYSTEME REPRENDRA SON DEPLACEMENT. DES
MECANISMES INTERNES, COMME UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL,
POURRAIT AUSSI INTERVENIR POUR TEMPERER L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- S'AJOUTANT AUX FORTES PLUIES DEJA TOMBEES, LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER
SUR LES REGIONS LITTORALES DU CENTRE OUEST PRINCIPALEMENT AVEC DES
LAMES D'EAU EXCEDANT LES 150 MM SUR LA PERIODE.

- UN EPISODE DE VENTS FORTS (DE LA GAMME DU COUP DE VENT) EST EN
COURS SUR DES PORTIONS DE LA COTE ENTRE MONRONDAVA ET LE CAP
SAINT-VINCENT ET DEVRAIT SE PROLONGER JUSQU'A DEMAIN.

- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX SUPERIEURS A 4M) CONCERNE LES REGIONS
ENTRE MAINTIRANO AU CAP SAINT-VINCENT S'ETENDANT JUSQU'AU CAP
SAINT-ANDRE AU NORD DEMAIN.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX PROCHES A 4M) EST PROBABLE JEUDI
D'INHAMBANE JUSQU'A L'ILE DE MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 250047
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/5/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 43.0 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 2.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 70 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/25 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SW: 360 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2023/01/26 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SW: 445 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2023/01/26 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 370 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/01/27 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SW: 390 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2023/01/27 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 350 SW: 405 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2023/01/28 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/29 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2023/01/30 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 335 SW: 555 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 270 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF CHENESO HAS OSCILLATED BETWEEN RAGGED EYE AND
CURVED BAND. OVERALL IT IS IMPROVING AND ALL OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING. THE INTENSITY IS THUS ESTIMATED
AT 60 KT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBJECTIVE (57-70 KT 10-MIN) AND
OBJECTIVE (ADT/AIDT AT 60-65 KT 10-MIN - SATCON AT 60 KT 10-MIN)
ESTIMATES. A SENTINEL SAR PASS ACQUIRED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD
ALLOW A BETTER ESTIMATION OF THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CORE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL PHILOSOPHY BUT THE TRACK FORECAST IS
STILL A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A STILL
RATHER LARGE SPREAD DISPLAYED BY THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AT SHORT
RANGE: CHENESO SHOULD HAVE ITS TRACK DRIVEN BY AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
MID-TROPOSPHERE FLOW GENERATED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THE ACTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL HOWEVER BE COUNTERACTED
BY THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EQUATOR TO THE
NORTH, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A CONTRADICTORY WEST TO NORTH-WEST FLOW. AS
A RESULT, DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE LITTLE. FROM THURSDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK
IS THEN EXPECTED TO RESUME IN A GENERAL SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION,
CURVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH THEN THE SOUTH-EAST IN FRONT OF A DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THE WEEK-END.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A GLOBALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC POINT OF VIEW AND IT IS NOW VERY LIKELY THAT
CHENESO WILL BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
NEVERTHELESS, ITS LONG TERM STATIONARITY ON THE SAME WATERS IS LIKELY
TO LIMIT ITS DEVELOPMENT. A PAUSE IN THE INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE
SUGGESTED BEFORE A RESUMPTION OF THE INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE SYSTEM
RESUMES ITS MOVEMENT. INTERNAL MECHANISMS, SUCH AS A REPLACEMENT
CYCLE OF THE EYEWALL, COULD ALSO TEMPER INTENSIFICATION.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN, THE RAINS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CENTRAL WEST, WITH
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 150 MM OVER THE PERIOD.

- STRONG WINDS (IN THE GALE RANGE) IS UNDERWAY ON PARTS OF THE COAST
BETWEEN MONRONDAVA AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL TOMORROW.

- A DANGEROUS SEA (WAVES OVER 4M) CONCERNS THE AREAS BETWEEN
MAINTIRANO AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT EXTENDING TO CAPE SAINT-ANDRE IN
THE NORTH TOMORROW.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- DANGEROUS SEA (WAVE NEAR 4M) IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FROM INHAMBANE
TO MOZAMBIQUE ISLAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 250021
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 25/01/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 43.0 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO MORE THAN 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
35 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/25 AT 12 UTC:
20.2 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/26 AT 00 UTC:
20.3 S / 43.0 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241858
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/5/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.0 S / 43.0 E
(VINGT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SO: 60 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/01/2023 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 140 SO: 195 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 25/01/2023 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 150 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 26/01/2023 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 215 SO: 445 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 26/01/2023 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SO: 455 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 27/01/2023 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SO: 415 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 27/01/2023 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 360 SO: 380 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/01/2023 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 415 SO: 270 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 155 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

120H: 29/01/2023 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 305 SO: 360 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

LA BREVE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE L'APRES-MIDI NE S'EST PAS MAINTENUE
SUR L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE. ELLE A EVOLUE VERS UNE CONFIGURATION EN
BANDE INCURVEE BIEN PRONONCEE MAIS UN PEU FRAGMENTEE. L'INTENSITE EST
ESTIMEE A 55 KT EN ACCORD AVEC CERTAINES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES A
4.0 ET CERTAINES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES (AIDT).

CHENESO DEVRAIT AVOIR SA TRAJECTOIRE PILOTEE PAR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
D'EST A SUD-EST DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE GENERE PAR UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. L'ACTION DE CETTE DORSALE SERA
TOUTEFOIS CONTRECARRER PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD IMPRIMANT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR CONTRADICTOIRE
D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST. EN RESULTANTE, AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 A
36H, LE SYSTEME DEVAIT CONTINUER A PEU SE DEPLACER. A PARTIR DE
JEUDI, UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS FRANCHE EN DIRECTION GENERAL DU SUD-OUEST
PUIS DU SUD EST PROPOSE PAR UNE GRANDE MAJORITE DES MODELES
ENSEMBLISTES ET DETERMINISTES MAIS LE TIMING ET LE DEGRE DE
RECOURBEMENT EST ENCORE TRES INCERTAIN A CE STADE.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST BASEE SUR UNE MOYENNE DE PLUSIEURS RUNS DES
MODELES LES PLUS FIABLES (GFS / IFS).

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLE
DU POINT DE VUE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE ET IL EST MAINTENANT TRES
PROBABLE QUE CHENESO DEVIENNE UN CYCLONE TROPICAL A PLUS OU MOINS
BREVE ECHEANCE. NEANMOINS SA STATIONNARITE DURABLE SUR LES MEMES EAUX
EST SUSCEPTIBLE DE LIMITER SON DEVELOPPEMENT A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SOIR.
UNE PAUSE DANS L'INTENSIFICATION EST DONC SUGGEREE AVANT UNE REPRISE
DE L'INTENSIFICATION LORSQUE LE SYSTEME REPRENDRA SON DEPLACEMENT.
DES MECANISMES INTERNES, COMME UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL, POURRAIT AUSSI INTERVENIR POUR TEMPERER L'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- S'AJOUTANT AUX FORTES PLUIES DEJA TOMBEES, LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER
SUR LE NORD-OUEST ET LE CENTRE OUEST AVEC DES LAMES D'EAU EXCEDANT
LES 150 MM SUR LA PERIODE. LA REGION DU CENTRE OUEST SERA DAVANTAGE
CONCERNEE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI AVEC DES CUMULS SUR LA PERIODE POUVANT
DEPASSER 300 MM.

- UN EPISODE DE VENTS FORTS (DE LA GAMME DU COUP DE VENT) EST
POSSIBLE SUR DES PORTIONS DE LA COTE ENTRE MONRONDAVA ET LE CAP
SAINT-VINCENT DES CE SOIR ET POUR LES JOURNEES DE MERCREDI ET JEUDI.

- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX SUPERIEURS A 4M) POURRAIT CONCERNER LES
REGIONS ENTRE MAINTIRANO AU CAP SAINT-VINCENT A PARTIR DE MERCREDI,
S'ETENDANT JUSQU'AU CAP SAINT-ANDRE AU NORD JEUDI.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX PROCHES A 4M) EST ATTENDU JEUDI
D'INHAMBANE JUSQU'A L'ILE DE MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241858
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/5/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 43.0 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/25 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 140 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2023/01/25 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 150 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2023/01/26 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 215 SW: 445 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2023/01/26 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 455 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2023/01/27 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 415 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2023/01/27 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 360 SW: 380 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/28 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 415 SW: 270 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 155 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2023/01/29 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 305 SW: 360 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

THE BRIEF EYE PATTERN OF THE AFTERNOON WAS NOT MAINTAINED ON THE
CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT HAS EVOLVED INTO A WELL PRONOUNCED
BUT SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED CURVED BAND PATTERN. THE INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AT 4.0
AND SOME OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (AIDT).

CHENESO SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
MID-TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE ACTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL HOWEVER BE
COUNTERACTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
IMPARTING A CONTRADICTORY WEST TO NORTH-WEST STEERING FLOW. AS A
RESULT, DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE LITTLE. FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, A CLEARER TRACK IN A GENERAL
SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION AND THEN SOUTH IS PROPOSED BY A LARGE
MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINIST MODELS BUT THE TIMING AND
DEGREE OF CURVATURE IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE.
THE PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
MOST RELIABLE MODELS (GFS / IFS).

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A GLOBALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC POINT OF VIEW AND IT IS NOW VERY LIKELY THAT
CHENESO WILL BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
NEVERTHELESS, ITS LASTING STATIONARITY ON THE SAME WATERS IS LIKELY
TO LIMIT ITS DEVELOPMENT FROM TOMORROW EVENING. A PAUSE IN THE
INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE SUGGESTED BEFORE A RESUMPTION OF THE
INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE SYSTEM RESUMES ITS MOVEMENT. INTERNAL
MECHANISMS, LIKE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, COULD ALSO TEMPER THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN, THE RAINS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERLY AND CENTRAL WESTERN REGIONS WITH
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 150 MM OVER THE PERIOD. THE CENTRAL WEST REGION
WILL BE MORE CONCERNED FROM WEDNESDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
PERIOD THAT MAY EXCEED 300 MM.

- AN EPISODE OF STRONG WINDS (IN THE GALE RANGE) IS POSSIBLE ON PARTS
OF THE COAST BETWEEN MONRONDAVA AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT FROM THIS
EVENING AND FOR THE DAYS OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

- DANGEROUS SEAS (WAVES OVER 4M) COULD AFFECT THE AREAS BETWEEN
MAINTIRANO AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT FROM WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING TO CAPE
SAINT-ANDRE IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- DANGEROUS SEA (WAVES CLOSE TO 4M) IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY FROM
INHAMBANE TO MOZAMBIQUE ISLAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 241832
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/01/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 24/01/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 43.0 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO MORE THAN 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/25 AT 06 UTC:
20.1 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/25 AT 18 UTC:
20.2 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230124134828
2023012412 08S CHENESO 006 01 120 02 SATL 030
T000 200S 0429E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 201S 0429E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 202S 0428E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 205S 0426E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 213S 0421E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 227S 0407E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 245S 0403E 090 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 275S 0436E 080 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 42.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 42.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.1S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.2S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.5S 42.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.3S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.7S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.5S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 27.5S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 42.9E.
24JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
201 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z
AND 251500Z.//
0823011306 81S 812E 20
0823011312 78S 811E 25
0823011318 76S 808E 25
0823011400 75S 806E 30
0823011406 75S 803E 25
0823011412 77S 802E 25
0823011418 80S 801E 25
0823011500 84S 800E 25
0823011506 93S 797E 25
0823011512 103S 791E 20
0823011518 111S 777E 20
0823011600 118S 759E 20
0823011606 120S 734E 20
0823011612 120S 700E 20
0823011618 121S 673E 25
0823011700 124S 645E 25
0823011706 127S 621E 30
0823011712 135S 600E 30
0823011718 141S 580E 35
0823011800 141S 562E 40
0823011806 138S 543E 45
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011906 147S 504E 40
0823011912 153S 496E 35
0823011918 159S 488E 35
0823012000 163S 479E 30
0823012006 164S 474E 30
0823012012 166S 467E 25
0823012018 172S 464E 25
0823012100 175S 462E 20
0823012106 182S 462E 20
0823012112 187S 457E 20
0823012118 189S 453E 20
0823012200 190S 444E 25
0823012206 193S 437E 25
0823012212 196S 442E 25
0823012218 200S 445E 25
0823012222 205S 448E 25
0823012300 206S 447E 25
0823012306 205S 444E 25
0823012312 205S 438E 25
0823012318 205S 432E 30
0823012400 201S 427E 35
0823012406 199S 427E 40
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012412 200S 429E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 42.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 42.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.1S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.2S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.5S 42.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.3S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.7S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.5S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 27.5S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 42.9E.
24JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
201 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z
AND 251500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241317
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/5/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.0 S / 42.8 E
(VINGT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 165 SO: 45 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/01/2023 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 100

24H: 25/01/2023 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SO: 335 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 65

36H: 26/01/2023 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 75

48H: 26/01/2023 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SO: 325 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 27/01/2023 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SO: 370 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 27/01/2023 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SO: 345 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/01/2023 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 405 SO: 270 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 165 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

120H: 29/01/2023 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 350 SO: 295 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 140 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST NETTEMENT
RENFORCE ET A CONTINUE DE S'ORGANISER AUTOUR DU CENTRE DE CHENESO.
ELLE S'EST ORGANISE EN CDO EN DEBUT DE PERIODE, ET PRESENTE MEME
DANS LES TOUTES DERNIERES HEURES UN OEIL EN IR ET EN VISIBLE.

CHENESO DEVRAIT AVOIR SA TRAJECTOIRE PILOTEE PAR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
D'EST A SUD-EST DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE GENERE PAR UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. L'ACTION DE CETTE DORSALE SERA
TOUTEFOIS CONTRECARRER PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD IMPRIMANT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR CONTRADICTOIRE
D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST.
EN RESULTANTE, AU COURS DES DEUX PROCHAINS JOURS, LE SYSTEME DEVAIT
SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST. UNE
TRAJECTOIRE ERRATIQUE, AVEC DE POSSIBLES MOMENTS DE
QUASI-STATIONNARITE, SONT POSSIBLES DURANT CETTE PERIODE. EN SECONDE
PARTIE DE SEMAINE, UN RECOURBEMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST PUIS LE SUD EST PROPOSE PAR UNE GRANDE MAJORITE DES MODELES
ENSEMBLISTES ET DETERMINISTES MAIS LE TIMING ET LE DEGRE DE
RECOURBEMENT EST ENCORE TRES INCERTAIN A CE STADE.
LE MODELE DETERMINISTE GFS ET IFS MANQUENT DE STABILITE, OSCILLANT
ENTRE UN SCENARIO DAVANTAGE PROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES ET UN
SCENARIO PLUS SUR LE CENTRE DU CANAL. LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES
PROPOSENT POUR LEUR PART TOUJOURS DE MANIERE PLUS STABLE UN FAISCEAU
DE TRAJECTOIRES ASSEZ LARGE S'ETENDANT DES COTES MALGACHES JUSQU'AU
CENTRE DU CANAL AU DELA DE 48 HEURES. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST DONC
PRINCIPALEMENT BASEE SUR LA PE DE CES DEUX MODELES. IL EXISTE
CEPENDANT ENCORE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLE
DU POINT DE VUE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE, SAUF SUR LA TOUTE FIN
D'ECHEANCE OU LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT ETRE EN
HAUSSE. UNE INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE EST PREVUE JUSQU'A SAMEDI.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- S'AJOUTANT AUX FORTES PLUIES DEJA TOMBEES, LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER
SUR LE NORD-OUEST ET LE CENTRE OUEST AVEC DES LAMES D'EAU EXCEDANT
LES 150 MM SUR LA PERIODE. LA REGION DU CENTRE OUEST SERA DAVANTAGE
CONCERNEE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI AVEC DES CUMULS SUR LA PERIODE POUVANT
DEPASSER 300 MM.

- UN EPISODE DE VENTS FORTS (DE LA GAMME DU COUP DE VENT) EST
POSSIBLE SUR DES PORTIONS DE LA COTE ENTRE MONRONDAVA ET LE CAP
SAINT-VINCENT DES CE SOIR ET POUR LES JOURNEES DE MERCREDI ET JEUDI.

- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX SUPERIEURS A 4M) POURRAIT CONCERNER LES
REGIONS ENTRE MAINTIRANO AU CAP SAINT-VINCENT A PARTIR DE MERCREDI,
S'ETENDANT JUSQU'AU CAP SAINT-ANDRE AU NORD JEUDI.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX PROCHES A 4M) EST ATTENDU JEUDI
D'INHAMBANE JUSQU'A L'ILE DE MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241317
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/5/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 42.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 165 SW: 45 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/25 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 100

24H: 2023/01/25 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SW: 335 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2023/01/26 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75

48H: 2023/01/26 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2023/01/27 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SW: 370 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2023/01/27 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SW: 345 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/28 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 405 SW: 270 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 165 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

120H: 2023/01/29 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY STRENGTHENED AND
HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE ITSELF AROUND THE CENTER OF CHENESO. IT HAS
BEEN ORGANIZED IN CDO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, AND EVEN
PRESENTS IN THE VERY LAST HOURS AN EYE IN IR AND VISIBLE.

CHENESO SHOULD HAVE ITS TRAJECTORY DRIVEN BY A LOW TO MID
TROPOSPHERIC EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW GENERATED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE ACTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL HOWEVER BE
COUNTERACTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
IMPARTING A CONTRADICTORY WEST TO NORTH-WEST STEERING FLOW.
AS A RESULT, DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION. AN ERRATIC TRACK, WITH POSSIBLE
MOMENTS OF QUASI-STATIONARITY, ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. IN
THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK, A BENDING OF THE TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST AND THEN THE SOUTH IS PROPOSED BY A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS BUT THE TIMING AND THE DEGREE OF
BENDING IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE.
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND IFS MODELS LACK STABILITY, OSCILLATING
BETWEEN A SCENARIO CLOSER TO THE MALAGASY COASTS AND A SCENARIO MORE
ON THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ALWAYS PROPOSE IN A
MORE STABLE WAY A WIDE RANGE OF TRAJECTORIES EXTENDING FROM THE
MALAGASY COAST TO THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE
PRESENT FORECAST IS THEREFORE MAINLY BASED ON THE PE OF THESE TWO
MODELS. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TRAJECTORY.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A GLOBALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC POINT OF VIEW, EXCEPT FOR THE VERY END OF THE
TIME SCALE WHERE THE TROPOSPHERE MEAN SHEAR COULD BE INCREASING. A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MADAGASCAR:
- IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN, THE RAINS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERLY AND CENTRAL WESTERN REGIONS WITH
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 150 MM OVER THE PERIOD. THE CENTRAL WEST REGION
WILL BE MORE CONCERNED FROM WEDNESDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
PERIOD THAT MAY REACH 300 TO 400 MM LOCALLY.

- AN EPISODE OF STRONG WINDS (IN THE RANGE OF GALE FORCE WINDS) IS
POSSIBLE ON PARTS OF THE COAST BETWEEN MAINTIRANO AND CAPE
SAINT-VINCENT FROM THIS EVENING AND FOR THE DAY OF WEDNESDAY.

- DANGEROUS SEAS (WAVES HIGHER THAN 4M) COULD AFFECT THE AREAS
BETWEEN MAINTIRANO AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT FROM WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING
TO CAPE SAINT-ANDRE IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 241218
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/01/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 24/01/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 42.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 240 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/25 AT 00 UTC:
20.1 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/25 AT 12 UTC:
20.1 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240635
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/5/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.0 S / 42.5 E
(VINGT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/01/2023 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 95

24H: 25/01/2023 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SO: 165 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 95

36H: 25/01/2023 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 250 SO: 425 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 26/01/2023 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 360 SO: 415 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 26/01/2023 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SO: 445 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 27/01/2023 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 405 SO: 415 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/01/2023 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 360 SO: 325 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

120H: 29/01/2023 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST RENFORCE ET A
CONTINUE DE S'ORGANISER AUTOUR DU CENTRE DE CHENESO. ELLE S'EST
DAVANTAGE ENROULEE AUTOUR DU CENTRE ET A COMMENCE A PRENDRE UNE
ALLURE DE BANDE INCURVEE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE 0337Z A PERMIS DE POSITIONNER LE CENTRE A
ENVIRON 170 KM DE LA COTE MALGACHE. ELLE MONTRE AUSSI UNE STRUCTURE
PLUS NETTE AUTOUR DU CENTRE. LE CMRS A DONC REVU L'INTENSITE A LA
HAUSSE AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES DE 35KT, EN ACCARD AVEC LES DONNEES
SMAP DE 0250Z.

CHENESO DEVRAIT AVOIR SA TRAJECTOIRE PILOTEE PAR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
D'EST A SUD-EST DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE GENERE PAR UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD ET AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. L'ACTION DE
CETTE DORSALE SERA TOUTEFOIS CONTRECARRER PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD IMPRIMANT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
CONTRADICTOIRE D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST. EN RESULTANTE, AU COURS DES
TROIS PROCHAINS JOURS, LE SYSTEME DEVAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD-OUEST. UNE TRAJECTOIRE ERRATIQUE, AVEC DE
POSSIBLES MOMENTS DE QUASI-STATIONNARITE, SONT POSSIBLES DURANT CETTE
PERIODE. EN SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE, UN RECOURBEMENT DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS LE SUD EST PROPOSE PAR UNE GRANDE
MAJORITE DES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES ET DETERMINISTES MAIS LE TIMING ET
LE DEGRE DE RECOURBEMENT EST ENCORE TRES INCERTAIN A CE STADE.
LE MODELE GFS MANQUE DE STABILITE ENTRE SES DERNIERS RUNS AVEC UN
SCENARIO DAVANTAGE PROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES ET UN SCENARIO PLUS SUR
LE CENTRE DU CANAL. IFS SEMBLE MAINTENANT PROPOSER DE FACON PLUS
STABLE UN SCENARIO SUR LE CENTRE DU CANAL. LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES
PROPOSENT POUR LEUR PART TOUJOURS UN FAISCEAU DE TRAJECTOIRES ASSEZ
LARGE S'ETENDANT DES COTES MALGACHES JUSQU'AU CENTRE DU CANAL AU DEAL
DE 72 HEURES. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST DONC PRINCIPALEMENT BASEE SUR
LA TENDANCE DE IFS, ET LE DERNIER RESEAU GFS. IL EXISTE CEPENDANT
ENCORE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLE
DU POINT DE VUE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE, SAUF SUR LA TOUTE FIN
D'ECHEANCE OU LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT ETRE EN
HAUSSE. UNE INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE EST PREVUE JUSQU'A VENDREDI A
UN RYTHME CLIMATOLOGIQUE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- S'AJOUTANT AUX FORTES PLUIES DEJA TOMBEES, LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER
SUR LE NORD-OUEST ET LE CENTRE OUEST AVEC DES LAMES D'EAU EXCEDANT
LES 150 MM SUR LA PERIODE. LA REGION DU CENTRE OUEST SERA DAVANTAGE
CONCERNEE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI AVEC DES CUMULS SUR LA PERIODE POUVANT
ATTEINDRE LOCALEMENT 300 A 400MM.

- UN EPISODE DE VENTS FORTS (DE LA GAMME DU COUP DE VENT) EST
POSSIBLE SUR DES PORTIONS DE LA COTE ENTRE MAINTIRANO ET LE CAP
SAINT-VINCENT DES CE SOIR ET POUR LA JOURNEE DE MERCREDI.

- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX SUPERIEURS A 4M) POURRAIT CONCERNER LES
REGIONS ENTRE MAINTIRANO AU CAP SAINT-VINCENT A PARTIR DE MERCREDI,
S'ETENDANT JUSQU'AU CAP SAINT-ANDRE AU NORD JEUDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240635
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/5/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 42.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/24 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 95

24H: 2023/01/25 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 95

36H: 2023/01/25 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 250 SW: 425 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2023/01/26 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 360 SW: 415 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2023/01/26 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SW: 445 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2023/01/27 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 405 SW: 415 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/28 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 360 SW: 325 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2023/01/29 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED AND
CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE CENTER OF CHENESO. IT HAS WRAPPED
MORE AROUND THE CENTER AND HAS STARTED TO LOOK LIKE A CURVED BAND IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE 0337Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE HAS
POSITIONED THE CENTER AT ABOUT 170 KM FROM THE MALAGASY COAST. IT
ALSO SHOWS A CLEARER STRUCTURE AROUND THE CENTER. THE CMRS HAS THUS
REVISED THE INTENSITY UPWARDS WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 35KT, IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE SMAP DATA OF 0250Z.

CHENESO SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY A LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE ACTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE
COUNTERACTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH,
WHICH WILL PRODUCE A CONTRADICTORY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. AS A
RESULT, DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY IN
A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. AN ERRATIC TRACK, WITH POSSIBLE
MOMENTS OF QUASI-STATIONARITY, ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. IN
THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK, A BENDING OF THE TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST AND THEN THE SOUTH IS PROPOSED BY A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLISTIC AND DETERMINIST MODELS BUT THE TIMING AND THE DEGREE OF
BENDING IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE.
THE GFS MODEL LACKS STABILITY BETWEEN ITS LAST RUNS WITH A SCENARIO
CLOSER TO THE MALAGASY COASTS AND A SCENARIO MORE ON THE CENTER OF
THE CHANNEL. IFS NOW SEEMS TO PROPOSE A MORE STABLE SCENARIO ON THE
CENTER OF THE CHANNEL. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE STILL PROPOSING A WIDE
RANGE OF TRAJECTORIES EXTENDING FROM THE MALAGASY COAST TO THE CENTER
OF THE CHANNEL AT THE 72 HOUR DEAL. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS THEREFORE
MAINLY BASED ON THE IFS TREND, AND THE LATEST GFS NETWORK. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRAJECTORY.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A GLOBALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC POINT OF VIEW, EXCEPT FOR THE VERY END OF THE
TIME FRAME WHERE THE TROPOSPHERE MEAN SHEAR COULD BE INCREASING. A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
PACE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MADAGASCAR:
- IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN, THE RAINS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERLY AND CENTRAL WESTERN REGIONS WITH
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 150 MM OVER THE PERIOD. THE CENTRAL WEST REGION
WILL BE MORE CONCERNED FROM WEDNESDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
PERIOD THAT MAY REACH 300 TO 400 MM LOCALLY.

- AN EPISODE OF STRONG WINDS (IN THE RANGE OF GALE FORCE WINDS) IS
POSSIBLE ON PARTS OF THE COAST BETWEEN MAINTIRANO AND CAPE
SAINT-VINCENT FROM THIS EVENING AND FOR THE DAY OF WEDNESDAY.

- DANGEROUS SEAS (WAVES HIGHER THAN 4M) COULD AFFECT THE AREAS
BETWEEN MAINTIRANO AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT FROM WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING
TO CAPE SAINT-ANDRE IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 240613
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/01/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 24/01/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 42.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 240 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/24 AT 18 UTC:
19.9 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/25 AT 06 UTC:
19.9 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 240300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZJAN2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 42.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 42.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.2S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.2S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.3S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.3S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.9S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.9S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.6S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 42.5E.
24JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
176 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND
250300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 231400).
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED MISSING WIND RADII.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230124010316
2023012400 08S CHENESO 005 01 290 10 SATL 060
T000 202S 0425E 035
T012 202S 0424E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 202S 0423E 060 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 203S 0422E 065 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 203S 0419E 070 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 209S 0411E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 229S 0396E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 246S 0404E 070 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 005
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZJAN2023//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 42.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 42.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.2S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.2S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.3S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.3S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.9S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.9S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.6S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 42.5E.
24JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
176 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA
VERIFIES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RETURNED TO OPEN WATERS AND DEVELOPED
TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THEREFORE, JTWC IS RESUMING WARNINGS
ON TC 08S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.
0823011306 81S 812E 20
0823011312 78S 811E 25
0823011318 76S 808E 25
0823011400 75S 806E 30
0823011406 75S 803E 25
0823011412 77S 802E 25
0823011418 80S 801E 25
0823011500 84S 800E 25
0823011506 93S 797E 25
0823011512 103S 791E 20
0823011518 111S 777E 20
0823011600 118S 759E 20
0823011606 120S 734E 20
0823011612 120S 700E 20
0823011618 121S 673E 25
0823011700 124S 645E 25
0823011706 127S 621E 30
0823011712 135S 600E 30
0823011718 141S 580E 35
0823011800 141S 562E 40
0823011806 138S 543E 45
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011906 147S 504E 40
0823011912 153S 496E 35
0823011918 159S 488E 35
0823012000 163S 479E 30
0823012006 164S 474E 30
0823012012 166S 467E 25
0823012018 172S 464E 25
0823012100 175S 462E 20
0823012106 182S 462E 20
0823012112 187S 457E 20
0823012118 189S 453E 20
0823012200 190S 444E 25
0823012206 193S 437E 25
0823012212 196S 442E 25
0823012218 200S 445E 25
0823012222 205S 448E 25
0823012300 206S 447E 25
0823012306 205S 444E 25
0823012312 205S 438E 25
0823012318 205S 435E 30
0823012400 202S 425E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 005//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZJAN2023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 42.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 42.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.2S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.2S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.3S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.3S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.9S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.9S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.6S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 42.5E.
24JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
176 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA
VERIFIES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RETURNED TO OPEN WATERS AND DEVELOPED
TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THEREFORE, JTWC IS RESUMING WARNINGS
ON TC 08S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 231400).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240037
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/5/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.1 S / 42.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.0/1.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/01/2023 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 345 SO: 315 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 0

24H: 25/01/2023 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 25/01/2023 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 110

48H: 26/01/2023 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 370 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

60H: 26/01/2023 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 260 SO: 380 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85

72H: 27/01/2023 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SO: 370 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/01/2023 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 360 SO: 315 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

120H: 29/01/2023 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A CONTINUE DE
S'ORGANISER AUTOUR DU MINIMUM DEPRESSIONNAIRE DE CHENESO. ELLE S'EST
DAVANTAGE ENROULEE AUTOUR DU CENTRE ET A COMMENCE A PRENDRE UNE
ALLURE DE BANDE INCURVEE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE
GPM DE 2256Z A PERMIS DE POSOTIONNER LE CENTRE A ENVIRON 140KM A
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST DE LA VILLE DE BELO. ELLE MONTRE AUSSI UNE
STRUCTURE PLUS NETTE AUTOUR DU CENTRE. LE CMRS A DONC REVU
L'INTENSITE A LA HAUSSE EN LE CLASSANT EN DEPRESSION TROPICALE AVEC
DES VENTS ESTIMES DE 30KT.

CHENESO DEVRAIT AVOIR SA TRAJECTOIRE PILOTEE PAR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
D'EST A SUD-EST DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE GENERE PAR UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD ET AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. L'ACTION DE
CETTE DORSALE SERA TOUTEFOIS CONTRECARRER PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD IMPRIMANT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
CONTRADICTOIRE D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST. EN RESULTANTE, AU COURS DES
TROIS PROCHAINS JOURS, LE SYSTEME DEVAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD-OUEST. UNE TRAJECTOIRE ERRATIQUE, AVEC DE
POSSIBLES MOMENTS DE QUASI-STATIONNARITE, SONT POSSIBLES DURANT CETTE
PERIODE. EN SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE, UN RECOURBEMENT DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS LE SUD EST PROPOSE PAR UNE GRANDE
MAJORITE DES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES ET DETERMINISTES MAIS LE TIMING ET
LE DEGRE DE RECOURBEMENT EST ENCORE TRES INCERTAIN A CE STADE. LE
MODELE GFS MANQUE DE STABILITE ENTRE SES DERNIERS RUNS AVEC UN
SCENARIO DAVANTAGE PROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES ET UN SCENARIO PLUS SUR
LE CENTRE DU CANAL. IFS SEMBLE MAINTENANT PROPOSER DE FACON PLUS
STABLE UN SCENARIO SUR LE CENTRE DU CANAL. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST
DONC PRINCIPALEMENT BASEE SUR LA TENDANCE DE IFS ET DONC REVUE
LEGEREMENT PLUS A L'OUEST QUE LES PRECEDENTES. IL EXISTE CEPENDANT
ENCORE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLE
DU POINT DE VUE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE, SAUF SUR LA TOUTE FIN
D'ECHEANCE OU LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT ETRE EN
HAUSSE. UNE INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE EST PREVUE JUSQU'A VENDREDI A
UN RYTHME CLIMATOLOGIQUE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- S'AJOUTANT AUX FORTES PLUIES DEJA TOMBEES, LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER
SUR LE NORD-OUEST ET LE CENTRE OUEST AVEC DES LAMES D'EAU EXCEDANT
LES 150 MM SUR LA PERIODE POUVANT ATTEINDRE 200 MM LOCALEMENT SUR LE
NORD-OUEST. LA REGION DU CENTRE OUEST SERA DAVANTAGE CONCERNEE A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI AVEC DES CUMULS SUR LA PERIODE POUVANT ATTEINDRE
LOCALEMENT 250 A 300MM.

- UN EPISODE DE VENTS FORTS (DE LA GAMME DU COUP DE VENT) EST
POSSIBLE SUR DES PORTIONS DE LA COTE ENTRE MAINTIRANO ET LE CAP
SAINT-VINCENT DES CE SOIR ET POUR LA JOURNEE DE MERCREDI.

- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX SUPERIEURS A 4M) POURRAIT CONCERNER LES
REGIONS ENTRE MAINTIRANO AU CAP SAINT-VINCENT A PARTIR DE MERCREDI,
S'ETENDANT JUSQU'AU CAP SAINT-ANDRE AU NORD JEUDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240037
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/5/20222023
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 42.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/24 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 345 SW: 315 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 0

24H: 2023/01/25 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2023/01/25 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 110

48H: 2023/01/26 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 370 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

60H: 2023/01/26 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 260 SW: 380 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85

72H: 2023/01/27 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SW: 370 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/28 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 360 SW: 315 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

120H: 2023/01/29 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE
AROUND THE CHENESO LOW. IT HAS WRAPPED MORE AROUND THE CENTER AND HAS
STARTED TO TAKE A CURVED BAND PATTERN IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. THE
2256Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE HAS POSITIONED THE CENTER ABOUT 140KM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CITY OF BELO. IT ALSO SHOWS A CLEARER STRUCTURE
AROUND THE CENTER. THE RSMC HAS THEREFORE UPGRADED THE INTENSITY TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 30KT.

CHENESO SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW TO
MID-TROPOSPHERE FLOW GENERATED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE ACTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL
BE COUNTERACTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A CONTRADICTORY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. AS
A RESULT, DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
IN A GENERAL NORTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. AN ERRATIC TRAJECTORY, WITH
POSSIBLE MOMENTS OF QUASI-STATIONARITY, ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK, A BENDING OF THE TRACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN THE SOUTH IS PROPOSED BY A LARGE
MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLISTIC AND DETERMINIST MODELS BUT THE TIMING
AND THE DEGREE OF BENDING IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE. THE
GFS MODEL LACKS STABILITY BETWEEN ITS LAST RUNS WITH A SCENARIO
CLOSER TO THE MALAGASY COASTS AND A SCENARIO MORE ON THE CENTER OF
THE CHANNEL. IFS NOW SEEMS TO PROPOSE A MORE STABLE SCENARIO ON THE
CENTER OF THE CHANNEL. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS THEREFORE MAINLY BASED
ON THE IFS TREND AND THEREFORE REVISED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONES. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TRACK.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A GLOBALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC POINT OF VIEW, EXCEPT FOR THE VERY END OF THE
TIME FRAME WHERE THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR COULD BE INCREASING. A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MADAGASCAR:
- IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN, THE RAINS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERLY AND CENTRAL WESTERN REGIONS WITH
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 150 MM OVER THE PERIOD AND REACHING 200 MM LOCALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST. THE CENTRAL WEST REGION WILL BE MORE CONCERNED
FROM WEDNESDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PERIOD THAT MAY REACH 250
TO 300 MM LOCALLY.

- AN EPISODE OF STRONG WINDS (IN THE RANGE OF GALE FORCE WINDS) IS
POSSIBLE ON PARTS OF THE COAST BETWEEN MAINTIRANO AND CAPE
SAINT-VINCENT FROM THIS EVENING AND FOR THE DAY OF WEDNESDAY.

- DANGEROUS SEAS (WAVES HIGHER THAN 4M) COULD AFFECT THE AREAS
BETWEEN MAINTIRANO AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT FROM WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING
TO CAPE SAINT-ANDRE IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 240013
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/01/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 24/01/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (CHENESO) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 42.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 280 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/24 AT 12 UTC:
19.6 S / 42.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/25 AT 00 UTC:
19.7 S / 42.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231829
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/5/20222023
1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.5 S / 43.2 E
(VINGT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/01/2023 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 24/01/2023 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 65

36H: 25/01/2023 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 25/01/2023 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 370 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 100 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 65

60H: 26/01/2023 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 26/01/2023 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SO: 345 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/01/2023 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 510 SO: 345 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

120H: 28/01/2023 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE MINIMUM DEPRESSIONNAIRE A
POURSUIVI SON ENTREE DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN S'ELOIGNANT
DOUCEMENT DES COTES MALGACHES. L'IMAGE MICRO ONDES SSMIS DE 1451Z
CONFIRME UNE POSITION SUR MER. L'ACTIVITE AUTOUR DU MINIMUM A PETIT A
PETIT AUGMENTE AVEC UNE CONVECTION PLUS PROFONDE ET UNE ACTIVITE
ORAGEUSE PLUS MARQUEE DANS LE QUADRANT OUEST. LES VENTS ESTIMES
AUTOUR DU CENTRE RESTENT PROCHES DE 25KT.

CHENESO DEVRAIT AVOIR SA TRAJECTOIRE PILOTEE PAR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
D'EST A SUD-EST DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE GENERE PAR UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD ET AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. L'ACTION DE
CETTE DORSALE SERA TOUTEFOIS CONTRECARRER PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD IMPRIMANT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
CONTRADICTOIRE D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST. EN RESULTANTE, AU COURS DES
TROIS PROCHAINS JOURS, LE SYSTEME DEVAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD-OUEST. UNE TRAJECTOIRE ERRATIQUE, AVEC DE
POSSIBLES MOMENTS DE QUASI-STATIONNARITE, SONT POSSIBLES DURANT CETTE
PERIODE. EN SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE, UN RECOURBEMENT DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS LE SUD EST POSSIBLE MAIS LE TIMING
ET LE DEGRE DE RECOURBEMENT EST ENCORE TRES INCERTAIN A CE STADE. LES
MODELES GFS ET IFS MANQUENT DE STABILITE DANS LEUR SCENARIO ET LA
PRESENTE PREVISION EST PRINCIPALEMENT BASEE SUR UNE TENDANCE DES DEUX
DERNIERS RESEAUX AVEC DES AJUSTEMENTS POUR L'INSTANT MINEURS DE LA
PRECEDENTE PREVISION.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLE
DU POINT DE VUE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE, SAUF SUR LA TOUTE FIN
D'ECHEANCE OU LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT ETRE EN
HAUSSE. UNE INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE EST PREVUE JUSQU'A VENDREDI A
UN RYTHME CLIMATOLOGIQUE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- S'AJOUTANT AUX FORTES PLUIES DEJA TOMBEES, LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER
SUR LE NORD-OUEST ET LE CENTRE OUEST AVEC DES LAMES D'EAU EXCEDANT
LES 150 MM SUR LA PERIODE POUVANT ATTEINDRE 200 MM LOCALEMENT. LA
REGION DU CENTRE OUEST SERA DAVANTAGE CONCERNEE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI.

- UN EPISODE DE VENTS FORTS (DE LA GAMME DU COUP DE VENT) EST
POSSIBLE SUR DES PORTIONS DE LA COTE ENTRE LE CAP SAINT-ANDRE ET
MORONDAVA A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'AU CAP SAINT-VINCENT
AU SUD JEUDI.

- UNE MER DANGEREUSE (CREUX SUPERIEURS A 4M) POURRAIT CONCERNER LES
REGIONS ENTRE MAINTIRANO AU CAP SAINT-VINCENT A PARTIR DE MERCREDI,
S'ETENDANT JUSQU'AU CAP SAINT-ANDRE AU NORD JEUDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231829
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/5/20222023
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 43.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/24 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2023/01/24 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 65

36H: 2023/01/25 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/01/25 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 370 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 65

60H: 2023/01/26 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2023/01/26 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 345 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/27 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 510 SW: 345 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2023/01/28 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE LOW CONTINUED TO ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL AND MOVED SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE MALAGASY COAST. THE SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE OF 1451Z CONFIRMS AN OFFSHORE POSITION. THE ACTIVITY
AROUND THE MINIMUM HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED WITH DEEPER CONVECTION AND
MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ESTIMATED WINDS
AROUND THE CENTER REMAIN CLOSE TO 25KT.

CHENESO SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW TO
MID-TROPOSPHERE FLOW GENERATED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE ACTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL
BE COUNTERACTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A CONTRADICTORY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. AS
A RESULT, DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
IN A GENERAL NORTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. AN ERRATIC TRAJECTORY, WITH
POSSIBLE MOMENTS OF QUASI-STATIONARITY, ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK, A BENDING OF THE TRACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN THE SOUTH IS POSSIBLE BUT THE TIMING
AND THE DEGREE OF BENDING IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE. THE
GFS AND IFS MODELS LACK STABILITY IN THEIR SCENARIO AND THE PRESENT
FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON A TREND OF THE LAST TWO RUNS WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MOMENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A GLOBALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC POINT OF VIEW, EXCEPT FOR THE VERY END OF THE
TIME FRAME WHERE THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR COULD BE INCREASING. A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MADAGASCAR:
- IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN, THE RAINS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERLY AND CENTRAL WESTERN REGIONS WITH
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 150 MM OVER THE PERIOD AND REACHING 200 MM
LOCALLY. THE CENTRAL WEST REGION WILL BE MORE CONCERNED FROM
WEDNESDAY.

- AN EPISODE OF STRONG WINDS (IN THE GALE RANGE) IS POSSIBLE ON PARTS
OF THE COAST BETWEEN CAP SAINT-ANDRE AND MORONDAVA FROM WEDNESDAY,
EXTENDING TO CAP SAINT-VINCENT IN THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

- DANGEROUS SEAS (WAVES HIGHER THAN 4M) COULD AFFECT THE AREAS
BETWEEN MAINTIRANO AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT FROM WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING
TO CAPE SAINT-ANDRE IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 231806
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/01/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/01/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (CHENESO) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 43.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND ROUGH SEAS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/24 AT 06 UTC:
20.2 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/24 AT 18 UTC:
20.0 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231242
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/5/20222023
1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.5 S / 43.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/01/2023 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 0

24H: 24/01/2023 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 0

36H: 25/01/2023 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 75

48H: 25/01/2023 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 510 SO: 465 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 65

60H: 26/01/2023 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 26/01/2023 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/01/2023 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 28/01/2023 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 360 SO: 270 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LE MINIMUM DEPRESSIONNAIRE ASSOCIE A CHENESO A REGAGNE LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE CET APRES-MIDI JUSTE AU SUD DE LA VILLE DE MORONDAVA. LA
CONVECTION PROFONDE EST ENCORE ABSENTE PRES DU CENTRE MAIS DEVRAIT SE
RENFORCER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. LES VENTS SONT ESTIMES ENCORE
FAIBLES AU REGARD DES QUELQUES OBSERVATIONS DE SURFACE DISPONIBLES.

CHENESO DEVRAIT AVOIR SA TRAJECTOIRE PILOTEE PAR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
D'EST A SUD-EST DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE GENERE PAR UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD ET AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. L'ACTION DE
CETTE DORSALE SERA TOUTEFOIS CONTRECARRER PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD IMPRIMANT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
CONTRADICTOIRE D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST. EN RESULTANTE, AU COURS DES
TROIS PROCHAINS JOURS, LE SYSTEME DEVAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD-OUEST. UNE TRAJECTOIRE ERRATIQUE, AVEC DE
POSSIBLES MOMENTS DE QUASI-STATIONNARITE, SONT POSSIBLES DURANT CETTE
PERIODE. EN SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE, UN RECOURBEMENT DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS LE SUD EST POSSIBLE MAIS LE TIMING
ET LE DEGRE DE RECOURBEMENT EST ENCORE TRES INCERTAIN A CE STADE. LES
MODELES GFS ET IFS MANQUENT DE STABILITE DANS LEUR SCENARIO ET LA
PRESENTE PREVISION EST PRINCIPALEMENT BASEE SUR UNE TENDANCE DES DEUX
DERNIERS RESEAUX AVEC DES AJUSTEMENTS POUR L'INSTANT MINEURS DE LA
PRECEDENTE PREVISION.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLE
DU POINT DE VUE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE, SAUF SUR LA TOUTE FIN
D'ECHEANCE OU LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT ETRE EN
HAUSSE. UNE INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE EST PREVUE JUSQU'A VENDREDI A
UN RYTHME CLIMATOLOGIQUE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- S'AJOUTANT AUX FORTES PLUIES DEJA TOMBEES, LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER
SUR LE NORD-OUEST ET LE CENTRE OUEST AVEC DES LAMES D'EAU EXCEDANT
LES 150 MM SUR LA PERIODE POUVANT ATTEINDRE 200 MM LOCALEMENT.

- UN EPISODE DE VENTS FORTS (DE LA GAMME DU COUP DE VENT) EST
POSSIBLE SUR DES PORTIONS DE LA COTE ENTRE LE CAP SAINT-ANDRE ET
MORONDAVA A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, ACCOMPAGNES D'UN ETAT DE MER
DANGEREUX (CREUX MOYENS DE 4M).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/5/20222023
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 43.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/24 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 0

24H: 2023/01/24 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2023/01/25 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 75

48H: 2023/01/25 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 510 SW: 465 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65

60H: 2023/01/26 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2023/01/26 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/27 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2023/01/28 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 360 SW: 270 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CHENESO MOVED INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE CITY OF MORONDAVA. THERE IS STILL A
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER BUT THUNDERTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS ARE STILL
ESTIMATED TO BE WEAK FROM THE FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE.

CHENESO SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW TO
MID-TROPOSPHERE FLOW GENERATED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE ACTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL
BE COUNTERACTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A CONTRADICTORY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. AS
A RESULT, DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
IN A GENERAL NORTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. AN ERRATIC TRAJECTORY, WITH
POSSIBLE MOMENTS OF QUASI-STATIONARITY, ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK, A BENDING OF THE TRACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN THE SOUTH IS POSSIBLE BUT THE TIMING
AND THE DEGREE OF BENDING IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE. THE
GFS AND IFS MODELS LACK STABILITY IN THEIR SCENARIO AND THE PRESENT
FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON A TREND OF THE LAST TWO RUNS WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MOMENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A GLOBALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC POINT OF VIEW, EXCEPT FOR THE VERY END OF THE
TIME FRAME WHERE THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR COULD BE INCREASING. A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MADAGASCAR:
- IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN, THE RAINS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL WEST WITH RAINFALL
EXCEEDING 150 MM OVER THE PERIOD AND REACHING 200 MM LOCALLY.

- STRONG WINDS (GALE FORCE WINDS) IS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE
COAST BETWEEN CAPE SAINT-ANDRE AND MORONDAVA FROM WEDNESDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY A DANGEROUS SEA STATE (AVERAGE WAVES OF 4M).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201231
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/5/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 46.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/01/2023 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 21/01/2023 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 22/01/2023 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

48H: 22/01/2023 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 95 SO: 130 NO: 595

60H: 23/01/2023 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 575

72H: 23/01/2023 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 110 SO: 555 NO: 520

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/01/2023 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 85

120H: 25/01/2023 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CONVECTION ASSOCIEE A LA DEPRESSION SUR TERRE CHENESO EST
ESSENTIELLEMENT CONCENTREE DANS DES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES
PLUVIO-ORAGEUSES ACTIVES PRES DES COTES NORD-OUEST ET EST DE
MADAGASCAR.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE CE SYSTEME EST PILOTEE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS
DEVENANT CONTRADICTOIRES A 700 HPA ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD DE MADAGASCAR ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE QUI SE RENFORCE
AU NORD. CELA FAVORISE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS UN DEPLACEMENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A DIMANCHE, FAISANT ALORS
RESSORTIR LE CENTRE DEPRESSIONNAIRE DANS L'EST DU CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT
DEVENIR PLUS QUASI-STATIONNAIRE, RESTANT PROCHE DE LA COTE OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR. LA DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES EST NEANMOINS TRES
IMPORTANTE, L'ENSEMBLE AMERICAIN SUGGERANT UN DEPLACEMENT UN PEU PLUS
FRANC DU SYSTEME DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE TANDIS QUE L'ENSEMBLE
EUROPEEN PRIVILEGIE UN SYSTEME RESTANT PLUS PROCHE DU LITTORAL
MALGACHE. L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION EST DONC PARTICULIERMENT
IMPORTANTE POUR LE DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST AUSSI TRES INCERTAINE ET DEPENDANTE DE
LA RESSORTIE SUR MER PLUS OU MOINS FRANCHE. LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT MOYENNEMENT FAVORABLES AU RE-DEVELOPPEMENT DU
SYSTEME : EN PLUS DE L'INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES MALGACHES,
L'INTENSIFICATION PEUT ETRE FREINEE PAR UN LEGER CISAILLEMENT DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST ET PLUS OU MOINS D'AIR SEC
ASSOCIE. NEANMOINS, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT BENEFICIER D'UNE TRES BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE TRES FAVORABLE AVEC
DES EAUX DE SURFACE A PLUS DE 29C. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE FAIT UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, PRIVILEGIANT UNE SORTIE
TRES LENTE DU SYSTEME SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE AVEC UNE
INTENSIFICATION PROGRESSIVE EN TEMPETE TROPICALE ENTRE MARDI ET
MERCREDI, MAIS QUI RESTE LARGEMENT A CONFIRMER.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.
MADAGASCAR:
- S'AJOUTANT AUX FORTES PLUIES DEJA TOMBEES, LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER
JUSQU'A LUNDI EN CONCERNANT DAVANTAGE LA PARTIE NORD-OUEST SOUS
L'EFFET D'UNE FORTE POUSSEE DU FLUX DE MOUSSON ALIMENTANT LA PARTIE
NORD DE LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE. LES CUMULS ATTENDUS SUR LES 3
PROCHAINS JOURS DEPASSENT LES 200 MM SUR UNE GRANDE PARTIE DES
REGIONS BOENY, BETSIBOKA, MELAKY, SOFIA (AU NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR)
MAIS AUSSI VATOVAVY (A L'EST), AVEC LOCALEMENT PLUS DE 300/500 MM.


EN RAISON DE LA FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE ET DA UN
SYSTEME RESTANT DE FAIBLE INTENSITE DANS UN FUTUR PROCHE, LA
EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS SUR CE SYSTEME SERA TEMPORAIREMENT
INTERROMPUE APRES CE BULLETIN CMRS DE 12UTC. NEANMOINS, LE CMRS DE LA
REUNION CONTINUE A SURVEILLER DE PRES LES CHANCES DE RE-DEVELOPPEMENT
ET LA EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS REPRENDRA SI LE SCENARIO DA
UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE VENAIT A SE
CONFIRMER.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201231
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/5/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 46.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/21 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2023/01/21 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2023/01/22 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

48H: 2023/01/22 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 595

60H: 2023/01/23 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 575

72H: 2023/01/23 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 110 SW: 555 NW: 520

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/24 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85

120H: 2023/01/25 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OVERLAND DEPRESSION CHENESO IS MAINLY
CONCENTRATED WITHIN ACTIVE PERIPHERAL BANDS NEAR THE NORTHWEST AND
EAST COASTS OF MADAGASCAR.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS DRIVEN BY STEERING FLOWS AT 700 HPA WHICH ARE
BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE CONTRADICTORY BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THAT IS STRENGTHENING
TO THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS INITIALLY A SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL
SUNDAY, BRINGING THE CENTER OUT INTO THE EASTERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE QUASI-STATIONARY,
REMAINING CLOSE TO MADAGASCAR'S WEST COAST. MODEL DISPERSION IS
NEVERTHELESS VERY HIGH, THE AMERICAN ENSEMBLE SUGGESTING A LITTLE
MORE FRANK WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL WHILE THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE FAVORS A SYSTEM REMAINING CLOSER
TO THE MALAGASY COAST. THE FORECAST IS THEREFORE PARTICULARLY
UNCERTAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO VERY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON THE
SYSTEM MOVING MORE OR LESS OUT TO SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MIXED : ON THE DOWN SIDE, INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY TERRAIN AND
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS CAN OFFSET DEVELOPMENT, WHEREAS, ON THE CONDUCIVE SIDE,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BENEFIT FROM VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VERY
HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL (SST ABOVE 29C). THE CURRENT FORECAST MAKES A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WITH A SLOW EXIT INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND LIMITED INTENSIFICATION, REACHING UP TO
TROPICAL STORM STAGE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
MADAGASCAR:
- ADDING TO RECENT RAIN TOTALS, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY, AFFECTING MORE SPECIFICALLY THE NORTHWESTERN PART WITH A
STRONG MONSOON FLOW SURGE FEEDING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION. EXPECTED CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS
EXCEEDS 200 MM OVER A LARGE PART OF NORTHWESTERN REGIONS (BOENY,
BETSIBOKA, MELAKY AND SOFIA) AS WELL AS THE REGION OF VATOVAVY ON THE
EAST COAST, WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 300/500 MM.


DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WITH A SYSTEM THAT
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
BULLETINS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED AFTER THIS
12UTC RSMC BULLETIN. HOWEVER, LA REUNION RSMC WILL KEEP CLOSELY
MONITORING RISKS OF RE-DEVELOPMENT AND BULLETINS WILL RESUME IF
FUTURE RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS CONFIRMED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200632
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/5/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 20/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 46.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/01/2023 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 21/01/2023 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 21/01/2023 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 22/01/2023 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

60H: 22/01/2023 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

72H: 23/01/2023 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/01/2023 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 205

120H: 25/01/2023 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SO: 240 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 110

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION ASSOCIEE A LA
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE CHENESO A CONTINUE A S'ATTENUER PRES DU CENTRE,
MAIS AVEC UNE ACTIVITE PLUVIO-ORAGEUSE LOCALEMENT FORTE CONCENTREE
DANS DES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES PRES DES COTES NORD-OUEST ET EST.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE CE SYSTEME EST PILOTEE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES A 700 HPA ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD DE
MADAGASCAR ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE QUI SE RENFORCE AU NORD.
CELA FAVORISE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A DIMANCHE, FAISANT ALORS RESSORTIR LE
CENTRE DEPRESSIONNAIRE DANS L'EST DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE POUR LA FIN
DU WEEK-END. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT
DEVENIR PLUS QUASI-STATIONNAIRE AVEC UN SYSTEME RESTANT PROCHE DE LA
COTE OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. LA DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES EST NEANMOINS
TRES IMPORTANTE, L'ENSEMBLE AMERICAIN SUGGERANT UN DEPLACEMENT UN PEU
PLUS FRANC DU SYSTEME DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE TANDIS QUE
L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN PRIVILEGIE UN SYSTEME PLUS STATIONNAIRE RESTANT
TRES PROCHE DU LITTORAL MALGACHE. L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION EST
DONC PARTICULIERMENT IMPORTANTE POUR LE DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST AUSSI TRES INCERTAINE ET DEPENDANTE DE
LA RESSORTIE SUR MER PLUS OU MOINS FRANCHE. EN PLUS DE L'INTERACTION
AVEC LES TERRES MALGACHES, L'INTENSIFICATION PEUT ETRE FREINEE PAR UN
LEGER CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST
POUVANT FAIRE RENTRER UN PEU D'AIR SEC DANS LA CIRCULATION. LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES,
PRIVILEGIANT UNE SORTIE TRES LENTE DU SYSTEME SUR LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE AVEC UNE INTENSIFICATION QUI RESTE TRES LIMITEE EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.
MADAGASCAR:
- LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER JUSQU'A DIMANCHE OU LUNDI EN CONCERNANT
DAVANTAGE LA PARTIE NORD-OUEST AVEC UNE FORTE POUSSEE DU FLUX DE
MOUSSON ALIMENTANT LA PARTIE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE.
LES CUMULS ATTENDUS SUR LES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS DEPASSENT LES 200 MM
SUR UNE GRANDE PARTIE DES SECTEURS INDIQUES AVEC LOCALEMENT PLUS DE
300/400 MM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200632
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/5/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 46.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/20 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2023/01/21 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2023/01/21 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2023/01/22 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

60H: 2023/01/22 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

72H: 2023/01/23 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/24 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 205

120H: 2023/01/25 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OVERLAND
DEPRESSION CHENESO HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN NEAR THE CENTER, BUT WITH
LOCALLY ACTIVE CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN PERIPHERAL BANDS NEAR THE
NORTHWEST AND EAST COASTS.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS DRIVEN BY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS AT 700
HPA BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THAT IS STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS
INITIALLY A SOUTH-WESTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY, BRINGING OUT THE
CENTER INTO THE EASTERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A SYSTEM REMAINING CLOSE TO MADAGASCAR'S WEST
COAST. MODEL DISPERSION IS NEVERTHELESS VERY IMPORTANT, THE AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE SUGGESTING A LITTLE MORE FRANK WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WHILE THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE FAVORS
A MORE STATIONNARY SYSTEM REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY COAST.
THE FORECAST IS THEREFORE PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO VERY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON THE
SYSTEM MOVING MORE OR LESS OUT TO SEA. IN ADDITION TO INTERACTION
WITH THE MALAGASY TERRAIN, INTENSIFICATION CAN ALSO BE SLOWED DOWN BY
A SLIGHT SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR WHICH COULD FAVOR SOME DRY
AIR INTRUSIONS. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAKES A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WITH A SLOW EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND
VERY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY, AFFECTING
MORE SPECIFICALLY THE NORTHWESTERN PART WITH A STRONG MONSOON FLOW
SURGE FEEDING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. EXPECTED
CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS EXCEEDS 200 MM OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE INDICATED AREAS WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 300/400 MM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200019
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/5/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 20/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 48.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/01/2023 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 21/01/2023 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 21/01/2023 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 22/01/2023 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 22/01/2023 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 23/01/2023 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/01/2023 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
CHENESO A ATTERRI HIER EN FIN DE MATINA E ENTRE LES VILLES DE SAMBAVA
ET ANTALAHA AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. AU COURS DES 6
DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION ASSOCIEE A DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS TRES
NETTEMENT FAIBLIT PUIS L'ACTIVITE D'UNE BANDE PERIPHERIQUE AU SUD ET
A L'OUEST DU CENTRE S'EST ACCENTUEE EN MILIEU DE NUIT.

LA DEPRESSION SUR TERRE DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST
EN CONTINUANT SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT. LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE CE SYSTEME
EST ALORS PILOTE A 700 HPA PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES
ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR ET UNE DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE QUI SE RENFORCE AU NORD EN AYANT TENDANCE A SE
DECALER VERS LE SUD. CELA VA FAVORISER UN DEPLACEMENT GLOBALEMENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST.

POUR LA FIN D'ECHEANCE, LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES EUROPEENS ET
AMERICAINS SUGGERENT UNE SORTIE VERS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE MAIS AVEC
UN TIMING RETARDE ET ENCORE TRES INCERTAIN. UNE REGENERESCENCE DU
MINIMUM EST DONC ENCORE POSSIBLE EN FIN DA ECHEANCE AU LARGE DE LA
COTE CENTRE OUEST. CEPENDANT LA INCERTITUDE RESTE TOUJOURS TRES
IMPORTANTE AU NIVEAU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE ET DA UN EVENTUEL
REDEVELOPPEMENT (QUI DE TOUTE FAA ON NE DEVRAIT PAS INTERVENIR AVANT
LA FIN DE SEMAINE VOIRE LE DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE SA IL SE
PRODUIT).

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, AVEC L'INTERACTION AVEC LE RELIEF DE
MADAGASCAR, LE SYSTEME S'EST AFFAIBLI UNE FOIS SUR TERRE. LORS DE SON
EVENTUELLE RESSORTIE SORTIE SUR MER, EN FIN DE WEEK-END OU DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES MODELES DETERMINISTES DIVERGENT MAIS PEINENT A
CREUSER LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL. IFS MAINTIENT LE MINIMUM PROCHE DE
MADAGASCAR DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE D'OUEST LIMITANT SON
INTENSIFICATION, ALORS QUE GFS LE FAIT REMONTER PLUS RAPIDEMENT DANS
LE CANAL DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS AVANT DE FAIRE REVENIR SUR MADAGASCAR
DANS UN SECOND TEMPS. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE PRIVILEGIE UNE SORTIE
LENTE DU SYSTEME SANS CREUSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF A MOYENNE ECHEANCE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER JUSQU'A DIMANCHE EN CONCERNANT DAVANTAGE
LA PARTIE NORD-OUEST AVEC UNE FORTE POUSSEE DU FLUX DE MOUSSON
ALIMENTANT LA PARTIE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE. LES
CUMULS ATTENDUES SUR LES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS DEPASSENT LES 150 MM EN
PLAINE SUR UNE GRANDE PARTIE DES SECTEURS INDIQUES AVEC LOCALEMENT
PLUS DE 200/300 MM SUR LE RELIEF.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200019
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/5/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 48.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/20 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2023/01/21 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2023/01/21 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2023/01/22 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/01/22 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/01/23 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/24 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
CHENESO LANDED YESTERDAY LATE MORNING BETWEEN THE CITIES OF SAMBAVA
AND ANTALAHA AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. DURING THE LAST
6 HOURS, THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS AT FIRST VERY CLEARLY WEAKENED
THEN THE ACTIVITY OF A PERIPHERAL BAND SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER
HAS INCREASED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.

THE DEPRESSION ON LAND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE STEERING FLOW OF THIS SYSTEM
IS THEN DRIVEN AT 700 HPA BY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
THAT IS STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH AND TENDING TO SHIFT SOUTHWARDS.
THIS WILL FAVOUR A GENERAL SOUTH-WESTERN MOVEMENT.

FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST AN EXIT TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BUT WITH A DELAYED AND
STILL VERY UNCERTAIN TIMING. A REGENERATION OF THE MINIMUM IS
THEREFORE STILL POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE RANGE OFF THE CENTRAL WEST
COAST. HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL VERY IMPORTANT REGARDING THE
TRACK AND A POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT (WHICH IN ANY CASE SHOULD NOT
OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEK OR EVEN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
IF IT OCCURS).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE RELIEF OF
MADAGASCAR, THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED ONCE ON EARTH. DURING ITS
EVENTUAL EXIT OVER THE SEA, AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND OR BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, THE DETERMINIST MODELS DIVERGE BUT STRUGGLE TO DIG THE
RESIDUAL MINIMUM. IFS KEEPS THE MINIMUM CLOSE TO MADAGASCAR IN A
WESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT LIMITING ITS INTENSIFICATION, WHILE GFS
MAKES IT GO UP FASTER IN THE CHANNEL IN A FIRST TIME BEFORE COMING
BACK OVER MADAGASCAR IN A SECOND TIME. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A
SLOW EXIT OF THE SYSTEM WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DIGGING IN THE MEDIUM
TERM.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MADAGASCAR:
- THE RAINS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY, AFFECTING MORE THE
NORTHWESTERN PART WITH A STRONG PUSH OF THE MONSOON FLOW FEEDING THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE DEPRESSIONAL CIRCULATION. THE EXPECTED
CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS EXCEEDS 150 MM IN THE PLAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE INDICATED SECTORS WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN
200/300 MM IN THE RELIEF.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191822
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/5/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 19/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 48.4 E
(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 315 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/01/2023 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 20/01/2023 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 21/01/2023 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 21/01/2023 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 22/01/2023 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 22/01/2023 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/01/2023 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

120H: 24/01/2023 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
CHENESO A ATTERRI EN FIN DE MATINA E ENTRE LES VILLES DE SAMBAVA ET
ANTALAHA AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. AU COURS DES 6
DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION ASSOCIEE A TRES NETTEMENT FAIBLIT EN
ARRIVANT SUR TERRE.

LA DEPRESSION SUR TERRE DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST
EN CONTINUANT SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT. LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE CE SYSTEME
EST ALORS PILOTE A 700 HPA PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES
ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR ET UNE DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE QUI SE RENFORCE AU NORD EN AYANT TENDANCE A SE
DECALER VERS LE SUD. CELA VA FAVORISER UN DEPLACEMENT GLOBALEMENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST.

POUR LA FIN D'ECHEANCE, LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES EUROPEENS SUGGERENT
TOUJOURS DEUX SCENARIO, MAIS L'OPTION SORTIE VERS LE CANAL EST
MAINTENANT NETTEMENT PRIVILEGIER. LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES AMERICAINS
SEMBLENT ABANDONNER ENTIEREMENT L'OPTION SORTIE VERS L'EST.
UNE REGENERESCENCE DU MINIMUM EST DONC POSSIBLE EN FIN DA ECHEANCE
AU LARGE DE LA COTE CENTRE OUEST.
QUOI QU'IL EN SOIT, LA INCERTITUDE RESTE TOUJOURS IMPORTANTE AU
NIVEAU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE ET DA UN EVENTUEL REDEVELOPPEMENT (QUI DE
TOUTE FAA ON NE DEVRAIT PAS INTERVENIR AVANT LA FIN DE SEMAINE VOIRE
LE DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE SA IL SE PRODUIT).

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, AVEC L'INTERACTION AVEC LE RELIEF DE
MADAGASCAR, LE SYSTEME S'EST AFFAIBLI UNE FOIS SUR TERRE. LORS DE SA
SORTIE SUR MER, EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE SAMEDI, LES MODELES
DETERMINISTES DIVERGENT, IFS MAINTIENT LE MINIMUM PROCHE DE
MADAGASCAR DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE D'OUEST LIMITANT SON
INTENSIFICATION, ALORS QUE GFS LE FAIT REMONTER PLUS RAPIDEMENT DANS
LE CANAL PUIS VERS LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE OU DES CONDITIONS PLUS
FAVORABLES LUI PERMETTENT DE SE REINTENSIFIER PLUS RAPIDEMMENT. LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE RESULTE D'UN COMPROMIS ENTRE SES DEUX OPTIONS.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- LES PLUS FORTES PLUIES SUR LA REGION DE SAVA SONT EN ATTENUATION LA
NUIT PROCHAINE. CEPENDANT, LES PLUIES VONT PERDURER JUSQU'A DIMANCHE
EN CONCERNANT D'UNE PART LA COTE ET LE RELIEF DU CENTRE EST (DANS LE
MAXIMUM DE CONVERGENCE DES VENTS D'EST) ET D'AUTRE PART SUR UNE BONNE
PARTIE NORD-OUEST (FORTE POUSSEE DU FLUX DE MOUSSON ALIMENTANT LA
PARTIE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE). LES CUMULS ATTENDUES
SUR LES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS DEPASSENT LES 200 MM EN PLAINE SUR UNE
GRANDE PARTIE DES SECTEURS INDIQUES AVEC LOCALEMENT PLUS DE 300/400
MM SUR LE RELIEF.
- DES CONDITIONS DE VENTS FORTS (COUP DE VENT) NE CONCERNENT
MAINTENANT PLUS AUCUNE REGION.

MASCAREIGNES :
- EN PERIPHERIE SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, UN TEMPS PERTURBE PERDURE SUR LA
REGION REUNION/MAURICE.

COMORES/MAYOTTE :
- EN PERIPHERIE OUEST DU SYSTEME, UN TEMPS PERTURBE PERDURE SUR
MAYOTTE ET LES ILES SUD DES COMORES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191822
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 48.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 315 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/20 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2023/01/20 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2023/01/21 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2023/01/21 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/01/22 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/01/22 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/23 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

120H: 2023/01/24 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
CHENESO LANDED IN THE LATE MORNING BETWEEN THE CITIES OF SAMBAVA AND
ANTALAHA AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. DURING THE LAST 6
HOURS, THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
MADE LANDFALL.

THE DEPRESSION ON LAND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE STEERING FLOW OF THIS SYSTEM
IS THEN DRIVEN AT 700 MB BY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
THAT IS STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH WITH A TENDENCY TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARDS. THIS WILL FAVOUR A GENERAL SOUTH-WESTERN MOVEMENT.

FOR THE END OF THE TIME FRAME, THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MODELS STILL
SUGGEST TWO SCENARIOS, BUT THE OPTION TO EXIT TOWARDS THE CHANNEL IS
NOW CLEARLY FAVORED. THE AMERICAN ENSEMBLE MODELS SEEM TO ABANDON THE
EASTWARD EXIT OPTION ENTIRELY.
A REGENERATION OF THE MINIMUM IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD OFF THE CENTRAL WEST COAST.
ANYWAY, THE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL IMPORTANT REGARDING THE TRACK AND A
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT (WHICH IN ANY CASE SHOULD NOT OCCUR BEFORE THE
END OF THE WEEK OR EVEN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF IT HAPPENS).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE RELIEF OF
MADAGASCAR, THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED ONCE ON LAND. WHEN IT WENT OUT TO
SEA, DURING SATURDAY, DETERMINIST MODELS DIVERGE, IFS KEEPS THE
MINIMUM CLOSE TO MADAGASCAR IN A WESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT LIMITING
ITS INTENSIFICATION, WHILE GFS MAKES IT GO UP MORE QUICKLY IN THE
CHANNEL AND THEN TOWARDS THE COASTS OF MOZAMBIQUE WHERE MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALLOW IT TO REINTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO OPTIONS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MADAGASCAR:
- THE HEAVIEST RAINS OVER THE SAVA REGION ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE RAINS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY CONCERNING
ON THE ONE HAND THE COAST AND THE RELIEF OF THE CENTER EAST (IN THE
MAXIMUM OF CONVERGENCE OF THE EAST WINDS) AND ON THE OTHER HAND ON A
GOOD PART OF THE NORTHWEST (STRONG PUSH OF THE MONSOON FLOW FEEDING
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE DEPRESSIONAL CIRCULATION). THE EXPECTED
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS EXCEED 200 MM IN THE PLAIN OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE INDICATED SECTORS WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 300/400 MM
ON THE RELIEF.
- STRONG WIND CONDITIONS (GALE) DO NOT CONCERN ANY REGION ANYMORE.

MASCAREIGNES :
- ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, DISTURBED WEATHER
PERSISTED OVER REUNION/MAURITIUS.

COMOROS/MAYOTTE :
- ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, DISTURBED WEATHER PERSISTED
OVER MAYOTTE AND THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF COMOROS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 191818
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 19/01/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (CHENESO) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 48.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTOR.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/20 AT 06 UTC:
16.6 S / 47.1 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2023/01/20 AT 18 UTC:
17.5 S / 46.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191222
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/5/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 49.4 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/01/2023 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 400 SO: 0 NO: 220

24H: 20/01/2023 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 250

36H: 21/01/2023 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 21/01/2023 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 22/01/2023 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

72H: 22/01/2023 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/01/2023 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 24/01/2023 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 35

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
CHENESO A ATTERRI EN FIN DE MATINA E ENTRE LES VILLES DE SAMBAVA ET
ANTALAHA AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

LA DEPRESSION SUR TERRE DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST
EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT. LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE CE SYSTEME EST ALORS PILOTE
A 700 HPA PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE
QUI SE RENFORCE AU NORD EN AYANT TENDANCE A SE DECALER VERS LE SUD.
CELA VA FAVORISER UN DEPLACEMENT GLOBALEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
SUD-OUEST A SUD.

POUR LA FIN D'ECHEANCE, LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES SUGGERENT TOUJOURS
DEUX SCENARIO, MAIS L'OPTION SORTIE VERS LE CANAL EST MAINTENANT
NETTEMENT PRIVILEGIER.
UNE REGENERESCENCE DU MINIMUM EST DONC POSSIBLE EN FIN DA ECHEANCE
AU LARGE DE LA COTE CENTRE OUEST.
QUOI QU'IL EN SOIT, LA INCERTITUDE RESTE DONC IMPORTANTE AU NIVEAU
DE LA TRAJECTOIRE ET DA UN EVENTUEL REDEVELOPPEMENT (QUI DE TOUTE
FAA ON NE DEVRAIT PAS INTERVENIR AVANT LA FIN DE SEMAINE VOIRE LE
DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE SA IL SE PRODUIT).

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, AVEC L'INTERACTION AVEC LE RELIEF DE
MADAGASCAR, LE SYSTEME SA AFFAIBLIT RAPIDEMENT UNE FOIS SUR TERRE.
LORS DE SA SORTIE SUR MER, EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE SAMEDI, LES MODELES
DETERMINISTES DIVERGENT, IFS MAINTIENT LE MINIMUM PROCHE DE
MADAGASCAR DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE D'OUEST LIMITANT SON
INTENSIFICATION, ALORS QUE GFS LE FAIT REMONTER PLUS RAPIDEMENT DANS
LE CANAL PUIS VERS LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE OU DES CONDITIONS PLUS
FAVORABLES LUI PERMETTENT DE SE REINTENSIFIER PLUS RAPIDEMMENT. LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE RESULTE D'UN COMPROMIS ENTRE SES DEUX OPTIONS.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- DE FORTES PLUIES SONT PRESENTES SUR LE NORD DE L'ILE, AINSI QUE SUR
LES REGIONS DE LA COTES EST ET LE RELIEF, PLUS AU SUD JUSQU'A MAHORO
SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE BANDE PERIPHERIQUE TRES ACTIVE.
CES PLUIES VONT SA ATTENUER RAPIDEMENT LA NUIT PROCHAINE AU NIVEAU
DE LA ZONE DA IMPACT AVEC LA AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME SUR TERRE.
PAR CONTRE DE FORTES PLUIES VONT ENSUITE AU MOINS DURER JUSQU'A
DIMANCHE EN CONCERNANT D'UNE PART LA COTE ET LE RELIEF DU CENTRE EST
(DANS LE MAXIMUM DE CONVERGENCE DES VENTS D'EST) ET D'AUTRE PART SUR
UNE BONNE PARTIE NORD-OUEST (FORTE POUSSEE DU FLUX DE MOUSSON
ALIMENTANT LA PARTIE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE).
LES CUMULS ATTENDUES SUR LES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS DEPASSENT LES 200 MM
EN PLAINE SUR UNE GRANDE PARTIE DES SECTEURS INDIQUES AVEC LOCALEMENT
PLUS DE 300/400 MM SUR LE RELIEF.

- DES CONDITIONS DE VENTS FORTS (COUP DE VENT) CONCERNENT ENCORE LA
PENINSULE DE MASOALA ET LA BAIE D'ANONGIL, MAIS DEVRAINT S'ATTENUER
DANS LA NUIT PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191222
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/5/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 49.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/20 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 400 SW: 0 NW: 220

24H: 2023/01/20 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 250

36H: 2023/01/21 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2023/01/21 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/01/22 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

72H: 2023/01/22 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/23 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2023/01/24 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 35

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
CHENESO LANDED LATE THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE CITIES OF SAMBAVA AND
ANTALAHA AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

THE DEPRESSION ON LAND SHOULD CONTINUE IN SOUTH-WEST DIRECTION WHILE
WEAKENING. THE STEERING FLOW OF THIS SYSTEM IS THEN DRIVEN AT 700 HPA
BY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE THAT IS STRENGTHENING TO THE
NORTH AND TENDING TO SHIFT SOUTHWARDS. THIS WILL FAVOUR A GENERAL
SOUTH-WEST TO SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT.

FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE ENSEMBLE MODELS STILL SUGGEST TWO
SCENARIOS, BUT THE OPTION OF EXIT TOWARDS THE CHANNEL IS NOW CLEARLY
FAVORED.
A REGENERATION OF THE MINIMUM IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD OFF THE CENTRAL WEST COAST.
IN ANY CASE, THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IMPORTANT REGARDING THE
TRAJECTORY AND A POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT (WHICH IN ANY CASE SHOULD NOT
OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEK OR EVEN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
IF IT OCCURS).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE RELIEF OF
MADAGASCAR, THE SYSTEM WEAKENS QUICKLY ONCE ON LAND. WHEN IT GOES OUT
TO SEA, DURING SATURDAY, DETERMINIST MODELS DIVERGE, IFS KEEPS THE
MINIMUM CLOSE TO MADAGASCAR IN A WESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT LIMITING
ITS INTENSIFICATION, WHILE GFS MAKES IT GO UP MORE QUICKLY IN THE
CHANNEL AND THEN TOWARDS THE COASTS OF MOZAMBIQUE WHERE MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALLOW IT TO REINTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO OPTIONS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MADAGASCAR:
HEAVY RAINS ARE PRESENT OVER THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND, AS WELL AS
OVER THE EASTERN COASTAL AREAS AND THE RELIEF, FURTHER SOUTH TO
MAHORO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY ACTIVE PERIPHERAL BAND.
THESE RAINS WILL QUICKLY ATTENUATE NEXT NIGHT IN THE IMPACT AREA WITH
THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM ON THE GROUND.
ON THE OTHER HAND, HEAVY RAINS WILL LAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNDAY
CONCERNING ON THE ONE HAND THE COAST AND THE RELIEF OF THE CENTER
EAST (IN THE MAXIMUM OF CONVERGENCE OF THE EAST WINDS) AND ON THE
OTHER HAND ON A GOOD PART OF THE NORTH-WEST (STRONG PUSH OF THE
MONSOON FLOW FEEDING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE DEPRESSIONARY
CIRCULATION).
THE EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS EXCEED 200 MM IN THE
PLAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF THE INDICATED SECTORS WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 300/400 MM ON THE RELIEF.

- STRONG WIND CONDITIONS (GALE) STILL CONCERN THE MASOALA PENINSULA
AND THE BAY OF ANONGIL, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT NIGHT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 191207
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 19/01/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (CHENESO) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 49.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR AND UP TO 500 NM IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/20 AT 00 UTC:
16.3 S / 47.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 120 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/20 AT 12 UTC:
17.2 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 135 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM LANDED AT THE END OF THE MORNING BETWEEN THE CITIES OF
SAMBAVA AND ANTALAHA.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230119075338
2023011906 08S CHENESO 004 01 270 10 SATL 020
T000 140S 0499E 045 R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 150S 0485E 035 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 160S 0474E 030
T036 168S 0465E 025
T048 177S 0458E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 14.0S 49.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 49.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.0S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.0S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.8S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.7S 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 49.5E.
19JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
325 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY A CIRCULATION FEATURE
IN THE 190302Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OVER LAND BY TAU 24 AND ITS REMNANTS TO TRACK OVER LAND AT LEAST
UP TO TAU 48. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
0823011306 81S 812E 20
0823011312 78S 811E 25
0823011318 76S 808E 25
0823011400 75S 806E 30
0823011406 75S 803E 25
0823011412 77S 802E 25
0823011418 80S 801E 25
0823011500 84S 800E 25
0823011506 93S 797E 25
0823011512 103S 791E 20
0823011518 111S 777E 20
0823011600 118S 759E 20
0823011606 120S 734E 20
0823011612 120S 700E 20
0823011618 121S 673E 25
0823011700 124S 645E 25
0823011706 127S 621E 30
0823011712 135S 600E 30
0823011718 141S 580E 35
0823011800 141S 562E 40
0823011806 138S 543E 45
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011906 140S 499E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 14.0S 49.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 49.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.0S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.0S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.8S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.7S 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 49.5E.
19JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
325 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY A CIRCULATION FEATURE
IN THE 190302Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OVER LAND BY TAU 24 AND ITS REMNANTS TO TRACK OVER LAND AT LEAST
UP TO TAU 48. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190636
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/5/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 19/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.6 S / 50.5 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 65 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2023 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SO: 0 NO: 295

24H: 20/01/2023 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 350 SO: 10 NO: 390

36H: 20/01/2023 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 295 SO: 10 NO: 35

48H: 21/01/2023 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

CHENESO A MONTRE DE SIGNES D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN FIN DE NUIT. AU
CONTRAIRE, LA MASSE NUAGEUSE CENTRALE S'EST MONTRE PAR MOMENT
DECHIQUETTE AVEC DES SIGNES D'IMPACT DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT
(ARC DE CIRRUS DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST). LES DERNIERES DONNEES
D'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES RECENTES SSMIS DE 01H27UTC ET 03H02UTC ONT
PERMIS DE CONFIRMER L'INFLEXION SUD-OUEST DU DEPLACEMENT RECENT.
L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A 50 KT EN BON ACCORD AVEC LE SATCON.

CHENESO A BIEN RALENTI ET INCURVE VERS LE SUD-OUEST ALORS QU'UN COL
BAROMETRIQUE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SE MET EN PLACE AU SUD DES
MASCAREIGNES ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SE CONSTRUIT AU
NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE MAINTIENT SUR LE SUD
DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. CETTE CONFIGURATION EST FAVORABLE A UN
RECOUBEMENT VERS LE SUD DE LA TRAJECTOIRE AVEC UNE VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT MOINS RAPIDE.
UNE FOIS SUR MADAGASCAR, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE CE SYSTEME SERA ALORS
PILOTE A 700 HPA PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE UNE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE QUI SE RENFORCE AU NORD EN AYANT TENDANCE A SE DECALER
VERS LE SUD. CELA VA FAVORISER UN DEPLACEMENT GLOBALEMENT LENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD.

LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES SUGGERENT TOUJOURS DEUX SCENARIO QUASIMENT
EQUIPROBABLES A CE MOMENT LA POUR LE MINIMUM RESIDUELA : UNE DESCENTE
A LA EST OU A LA OUEST DE LA CHAINE MONTAGNEUSE CENTRALE DE
MADAGASCAR. DANS LES DEUX CAS, UNE REGENERESCENCE DU MINIMUM EST
POSSIBLE EN FIN DA ECHEANCE AU LARGE DE LA COTE CENTRE EST OU AU
LARGE DE LA COTE CENTRE OUEST. UNE TROISIEME OPTION, MAINTENUE PAR LE
CMRS, CONSISTE A CONSIDERER QUE, DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE MINIMUM
RESIDUEL DE CHENESO DEVRAIT DEGENERER EN UNE VASTE ZONE DE BASSES
PRESSIONS CENTRA E SUR MADAGASCAR AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS. LA
INCERTITUDE RESTE DONC IMPORTANTE AU NIVEAU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE ET DA
UN EVENTUEL REDEVELOPPEMENT (QUI DE TOUTE FAA ON NE DEVRAIT PAS
INTERVENIR AVANT LA FIN DE SEMAINE VOIRE LE DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE SA IL SE PRODUIT).

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST A SUD-EST, BIEN
QUA EN BAISSE, DEVRAIT RESTER SENSIBLE JUSQUA A LA ATTERISSAGE,
MALGRE TOUT LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC VOIR SON INTENSITE STABILISEE
LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE. PUIS AVEC L'INTERACTION AVEC LE RELIEF DE
MADAGASCAR, LE SYSTEME SA AFFAIBLIT RAPIDEMENT UNE FOIS SUR TERRE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- DE FORTES PLUIES VONT SA ACCENTUER AUJOURDA HUI ENTRE VOHEMAR ET
ANTALAHA AVEC LA APPROCHE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME, MAIS EGALEMENT PLUS
AU SUD JUSQU'A MAAHORO SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE BANDE PERIPHERIQUE TRES
ACTIVE.
CES PLUIES VONT SA ATTENUER RAPIDEMENT LA NUIT PROCHAINE AU NIVEAU
DE LA ZONE DA IMPACT AVEC LA AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME SUR TERRE.
PAR CONTRE DE FORTES PLUIES VONT ENSUITE AU MOINS DURER JUSQU'A
DIMANCHE EN CONCERNANT D'UNE PART LA COTE ET LE RELIEF DU CENTRE EST
(DANS LE MAXIMUM DE CONVERGENCE DES VENTS D'EST) ET D'AUTRE PART SUR
UNE BONNE PARTIE NORD-OUEST (FORTE POUSSEE DU FLUX DE MOUSSON
ALIMENTANT LA PARTIE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE). LES
CUMULS ATTENDUES SUR LES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS DEPASSENT LES 200 MM EN
PLAINE SUR UNE GRANDE PARTIE DES SECTEURS INDIQUES AVEC LOCALEMENT
PLUS DE 500 MM SUR LE RELIEF.

- DES CONDITIONS DE VENTS FORTS (COUP DE VENT) CONCERNENT AUJOURDA
HUI UNE BONNE PARTIE DE LA COTE ENTRE L'ILE SAINTE MARIE ET VOHEMAR.
DES CONDITIONS DE VENTS DESTRUCTEURS (TEMPETE) SONT ATTENDUES A
PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISAGE (ENTRE ANTALAHA ET SAMBAVA)

- UN ETAT DE MER DANGEREUX AVEC DES CREUX MOYENS DE PLUS DE 4M
CONCERNE LE LITTORAL NORD-EST DE MADAGASCAR AU NORD DE L'ILE SAINTE
MARIE AUJOURDA HUI JUSQUA A LA NUIT PROCHAINE. DES CREUX MOYENS DE
PLUS DE 6M SONT ATTENDUES A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE DA IMPACT. UN
RISQUE DE SUBMERSION COTIERE EST LOCALEMENT POSSIBLE JUSTE AU SUD DE
LA ZONE DA ATTERISSAGE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/5/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 50.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/19 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SW: 0 NW: 295

24H: 2023/01/20 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 350 SW: 10 NW: 390

36H: 2023/01/20 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 295 SW: 10 NW: 35

48H: 2023/01/21 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

CHENESO SHOWED SIGNS OF WEAKENING AT THE END OF THE NIGHT. ON THE
CONTRARY, THE CENTRAL CLOUD MASS WAS AT TIMES DECHIQUETTE WITH SIGNS
OF IMPACT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (CIRRUS ARC IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTOR). THE LAST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DATA SSMIS OF 01H27Z AND
03H02Z CONFIRMED THE SOUTH-WESTERN INFLECTION OF THE RECENT
DISPLACEMENT.
THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 50 KT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SATCON.

CHENESO HAS SLOWED DOWN AND CURVED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST WHILE A
MID-TROPOSPHERE BAROMETRIC COL IS BUILDING SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES
AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS BUILDING TO THE NORTHWESTERLY OF THE
SYSTEM. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MAINTAINED OVER THE SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS CONFIGURATION IS FAVORABLE TO A SOUTHWARD
TURN WITH A SLOWER SPEED OF MOTION. ONCE OVER MADAGASCAR, THE
STEERING FLOW OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRIVEN AT 700 HPA BY
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR AND A RIDGE NEAR THE EQUATOR THAT IS STRENGTHENING AND
TENDING TO SHIFT SOUTHWARDS. THIS WILL FAVOR A SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT
IN A GENERAL SOUTHWARD DIRECTION.

THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ALWAYS SUGGEST TWO ALMOST EQUIPROBABLE SCENARIOS
AT THIS TIME FOR THE REMNANT LOW: A DESCENT TO THE EAST OR TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF MADAGASCAR. IN BOTH CASES, A
REGENERATION OF THE LOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD OFF THE
CENTRAL EAST COAST OR OFF THE CENTRAL WEST COAST. A THIRD OPTION,
MAINTAINED BY THE RSMC, CONSISTS IN CONSIDERING THAT, IN THIS
CONTEXT, THE REMNANT LOW OF CHENESO SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A VAST LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ON MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IMPORTANT FOR THE TRACK AND A POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT (WHICH IN ANY CASE SHOULD NOT OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF
THE WEEK OR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF IT OCCURS).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE EAST TO SOUTH-EAST SHEAR, ALTHOUGH
DECREASING, SHOULD REMAIN SIGNIFICANT UNTIL LANDFALL. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SEE ITS INTENSITY STABILIZED UNTILL LANDFALL. THEN WITH
THE INTERACTION WITH THE RELIEF OF MADAGASCAR, THE SYSTEM WEAKENS
QUICKLY ONCE OVER LAND.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINS WILL INCREASE TODAY BETWEEN VOHEMAR AND ANTALAHA WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM, BUT ALSO FURTHER SOUTH
TO MAAHORO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY ACTIVE PERIPHERAL BAND.
THESE RAINS WILL QUICKLY ABATE TONIGHT IN THE LANDFALL AREA WITH THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM ON LAND. ON THE OTHER HAND, HEAVY RAINS WILL
LAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNDAY SPRADING OVER THE COAST AND THE RELIEF OF
THE CENTER EAST (IN THE MAXIMUM OF CONVERGENCE OF THE EAST WINDS) AND
ON THE OTHER HAND ON A GOOD PART OF THE NORTHWESTERLY (STRONG MONSOON
FLOW FEEDING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BROAD CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION).
THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS EXCEEDS 200 MM
IN THE PLAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF THE INDICATED SECTORS WITH LOCALLY
MORE THAN 500 MM OVER HIGH TERRAINS.

- STRONG WIND CONDITIONS (GALE) AFFECTS LARGE PORTION OF THE COAST
BETWEEN SAINT MARY'S ISLAND AND VOHEMAR. DESTRUCTIVE WIND CONDITIONS
(STORM) ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE LANDFALL ZONE (BETWEEN ANTALAHA AND
SAMBAVA)

- A DANGEROUS SEA STATE WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVES HEIGHTS OF MORE THAN
4M CONCERNS THE NORTH-EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR NORTH OF SAINTE MARIE
ISLAND TODAY UNTIL NEXT NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WAVES HEIGHTS OF MORE THAN
6M ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE IMPACT AREA. A RISK OF COASTAL
SUBMERSION IS LOCALLY POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF THE LANDING ZONE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 190615
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 19/01/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 50.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 350 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/19 AT 18 UTC:
15.5 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 160 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/20 AT 06 UTC:
16.2 S / 48.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 5 NM NW: 210 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
ONCE OVER LAND, THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND
LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EAST AND NORTHWEST COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190046
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/5/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.0 S / 51.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 165 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SO: 40 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2023 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 20/01/2023 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 370 SO: 0 NO: 220

36H: 20/01/2023 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 370 SO: 0 NO: 315

48H: 21/01/2023 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

CHENESO N'A PASMONTRE DE SIGNES D'INTENSIFICATION SUPPLEMENTAIRE AU
COURS DE LA NUIT. AU CONTRAIRE, LA MASSE NUAGEUSE CENTRALE S'EST
MONTRE PAR MOMENT DECHIQUETTE AVEC DES SIGNES D'IMPACT DU
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT (ARC DE CIRRUS DANS LE SECTEUR
SUD-EST). EN L'ABSENCE D'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES RECENTES ET DE PASS
ASCAT, LA POSITION DU CENTRE EST UN PEU INCERTAINE AINSI QUE LE
CAP/VITESSE. L'INTENSITE EST STABILISEE A 55 KT EN BON ACCORD AVEC UN
SATCON A 62 KT (1-MIN) A 2148Z.

CHENESO SEMBLE BIEN AVOIR RALENTIT ET INCURVE VERS LE SUD-OUEST ALORS
QU'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SE MET EN PLACE AU SUD
DES MASCAREIGNES ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SE CONSTRUIT AU
NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE MAINTIENT SUR LE SUD
DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. CETTE CONFIGURATION EST FAVORABLE A UN
RECOUBEMENT VERS LE SUD DE LA TRAJECTOIRE AVEC UNE VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT MOINS RAPIDE.
UNE FOIS SUR MADAGASCAR, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE CE SYSTEME SERA ALORS
PILOTE A 700 HPA PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE UNE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE QUI SE RENFORCE AU NORD EN AYANT TENDANCE A SE DECALER
VERS LE SUD. CELA VA FAVORISER UN DEPLACEMENT GLOBALEMENT LENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD. LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES SUGGERENT
TOUJOURS DEUX SCENARIO QUASIMENT EQUIPROBABLES A CE MOMENT LA POUR LE
MINIMUM RESIDUELA : UNE DESCENTE A LA EST OU A LA OUEST DE LA
CHAINE MONTAGNEUSE CENTRALE DE MADAGASCAR. DANS LES DEUX CAS, UNE
REGENERESCENCE DU MINIMUM EST POSSIBLE EN FIN DA ECHEANCE AU LARGE
DE LA COTE CENTRE EST OU AU LARGE DE LA COTE CENTRE OUEST. UNE
TROISIEME OPTION, MAINTENUE PAR LE CMRS, CONSISTE A CONSIDERER QUE,
DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DE CHENESO DEVRAIT DEGENERER EN
UNE VASTE ZONE DE BASSES PRESSIONS CENTRA E SUR MADAGASCAR AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS. LA INCERTITUDE RESTE DONC IMPORTANTE AU
NIVEAU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE ET DA UN EVENTUEL REDEVELOPPEMENT (QUI DE
TOUTE FAA ON NE DEVRAIT PAS INTERVENIR AVANT LA FIN DE SEMAINE VOIRE
LE DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE SA IL SE PRODUIT).

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST A SUD-EST, BIEN
QUA EN BAISSE, DEVRAIT RESTER SENSIBLE JUSQUA A LA ATTERISSAGE,
MALGRE TOUT LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC VOIR SON INTENSITE STABILISEE
LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE. PUIS AVEC L'INTERACTION AVEC LE RELIEF DE
MADAGASCAR, LE SYSTEME SA AFFAIBLIT RAPIDEMENT UNE FOIS SUR TERRE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- DE FORTES PLUIES VONT SA ACCENTUER AUJOURDA HUI ENTRE VOHEMAR ET
ANTALAHA AVEC LA APPROCHE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. CES PLUIES VONT SA
ATTENUER RAPIDEMENT LA NUIT PROCHAINE AU NIVEAU DE LA ZONE DA IMPACT
AVEC LA AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME SUR TERRE. PAR CONTRE DE FORTES
PLUIES VONT ENSUITE AU MOINS DURER JUSQU'A DIMANCHE EN CONCERNANT
D'UNE PART LA COTE ET LE RELIEF DU CENTRE EST (DANS LE MAXIMUM DE
CONVERGENCE DES VENTS D'EST) ET D'AUTRE PART SUR UNE BONNE PARTIE
NORD-OUEST (FORTE POUSSEE DU FLUX DE MOUSSON ALIMENTANT LA PARTIE
NORD DE LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE). LES CUMULS ATTENDUES SUR LES
3 PROCHAINS JOURS DEPASSENT LES 200 MM EN PLAINE SUR UNE GRANDE
PARTIE DES SECTEURS INDIQUES AVEC LOCALEMENT PLUS DE 500 MM SUR LE
RELIEF.

- DES CONDITIONS DE VENTS FORTS (COUP DE VENT) CONCERNENT AUJOURDA
HUI UNE BONNE PARTIE DE LA COTE ENTRE LE CAP MASAOLA ET VOHEMAR. DES
CONDITIONS DE VENTS DESTRUCTEURS (TEMPETE) SONT ATTENDUES A PROXIMITE
DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISAGE (ENTRE ANTALAHA ET SAMBAVA)

- UN ETAT DE MER DANGEREUX AVEC DES CREUX MOYENS DE PLUS DE 4M
CONCERNE LE LITTORAL NORD-EST DE MADAGASCAR AU NORD DE L'ILE SAINTE
MARIE AUJOURDA HUI JUSQUA A LA NUIT PROCHAINE. DES CREUX MOYENS DE
PLUS DE 6M SONT ATTENDUES A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE DA IMPACT. UN
RISQUE DE SUBMERSION COTIERE EST LOCALEMENT POSSIBLE JUSTE AU SUD DE
LA ZONE DA ATTERISSAGE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190046
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/5/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 51.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 165 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 40 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/19 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2023/01/20 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 370 SW: 0 NW: 220

36H: 2023/01/20 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 370 SW: 0 NW: 315

48H: 2023/01/21 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

CHENESO DID NOT SHOW SIGNS OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
NIGHT. ON THE CONTRARY, THE CENTRAL CLOUD MASS WAS AT TIMES RAGGED
WITH SIGNS OF IMPACT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (CIRRUS ARC IN THE
SOUTHEAST SECTOR). IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND
ASCAT PASS, THE POSITION OF THE CENTER IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS
THE HEADING/MOTION. THE INTENSITY IS STABILIZED AT 55 KT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SATCON AT 62 KT (1-MIN) AT 2148Z.

CHENESO SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND CURVED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
WHILE A MID-TROPOSPHERE BAROMETRIC COL IS BUILDING SOUTH OF THE
MASCAREIGNES AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS BUILDING TO THE
NORTHWESTERLY OF THE SYSTEM. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MAINTAINED OVER
THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS CONFIGURATION IS FAVORABLE
TO A SOUTHWARD TURN WITH A SLOWER SPEED OF MOTION.
ONCE OVER MADAGASCAR, THE STEERING FLOW OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRIVEN
AT 700 HPA BY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND A RIDGE NEAR THE EQUATOR THAT IS
STRENGTHENING AND TENDING TO SHIFT SOUTHWARDS. THIS WILL FAVOR A SLOW
OVERALL MOVEMENT IN A GENERAL SOUTHWARD DIRECTION. THE ENSEMBLE
MODELS ALWAYS SUGGEST TWO ALMOST EQUIPROBABLE SCENARIOS AT THIS TIME
FOR THE REMNANT LOW: A DESCENT TO THE EAST OR TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF MADAGASCAR. IN BOTH CASES, A REGENERATION
OF THE LOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD OFF THE CENTRAL EAST
COAST OR OFF THE CENTRAL WEST COAST. A THIRD OPTION, MAINTAINED BY
THE RSMC, CONSISTS IN CONSIDERING THAT, IN THIS CONTEXT, THE REMNANT
LOW OF CHENESO SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A VAST LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ON MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IMPORTANT FOR THE TRACK AND A POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT (WHICH
IN ANY CASE SHOULD NOT OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEK OR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF IT OCCURS).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE EAST TO SOUTH-EAST SHEAR, ALTHOUGH
DECREASING, SHOULD REMAIN SIGNIFICANT UNTIL LANDFALL. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SEE ITS INTENSITY STABILIZED UNTILL LANDFALL. THEN WITH
THE INTERACTION WITH THE RELIEF OF MADAGASCAR, THE SYSTEM WEAKENS
QUICKLY ONCE OVER LAND.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINS WILL INCREASE TODAY BETWEEN VOHEMAR AND ANTALAHA WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THESE RAINS WILL
QUICKLY ABATE TONIGHT IN THE LANDFALL AREA WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM ON LAND. ON THE OTHER HAND, HEAVY RAINS WILL LAST AT LEAST
UNTIL SUNDAY SPRADING OVER THE COAST AND THE RELIEF OF THE CENTER
EAST (IN THE MAXIMUM OF CONVERGENCE OF THE EAST WINDS) AND ON THE
OTHER HAND ON A GOOD PART OF THE NORTHWESTERLY (STRONG MONSOON FLOW
FEEDING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BROAD CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION). THE
CUMULATIVE RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS EXCEEDS 200 MM IN
THE PLAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF THE INDICATED SECTORS WITH LOCALLY
MORE THAN 500 MM OVER HIGH TERRAINS.

- STRONG WIND CONDITIONS (GALE) AFFECTS LARGE PORTION OF THE COAST
BETWEEN CAPE MASAOLA AND VOHEMAR. DESTRUCTIVE WIND CONDITIONS (STORM)
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE LANDFALL ZONE (BETWEEN ANTALAHA AND SAMBAVA)

- A DANGEROUS SEA STATE WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVES HEIGHTS OF MORE THAN
4M CONCERNS THE NORTH-EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR NORTH OF SAINTE MARIE
ISLAND TODAY UNTIL NEXT NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WAVES HEIGHTS OF MORE THAN
6M ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE IMPACT AREA. A RISK OF COASTAL
SUBMERSION IS LOCALLY POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF THE LANDING ZONE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 190014
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 19/01/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 51.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 450 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
15.1 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/20 AT 00 UTC:
15.8 S / 48.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 120 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
ONCE OVER LAND, THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND
LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EAST AND NORTHWEST COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230118192709
2023011818 08S CHENESO 003 01 275 09 SATL 040
T000 135S 0517E 055 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 035 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 130 SE QD 135 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 140S 0500E 050 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 149S 0489E 040
T036 159S 0483E 030
T048 170S 0479E 025
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 13.5S 51.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 51.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.0S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.9S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.9S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.0S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 51.3E.
18JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
404 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND
192100Z.//
0823011306 81S 812E 20
0823011312 78S 811E 25
0823011318 76S 808E 25
0823011400 75S 806E 30
0823011406 75S 803E 25
0823011412 77S 802E 25
0823011418 80S 801E 25
0823011500 84S 800E 25
0823011506 93S 797E 25
0823011512 103S 791E 20
0823011518 111S 777E 20
0823011600 118S 759E 20
0823011606 120S 734E 20
0823011612 120S 700E 20
0823011618 121S 673E 25
0823011700 124S 645E 25
0823011706 127S 621E 30
0823011712 135S 600E 30
0823011718 141S 580E 35
0823011800 141S 562E 40
0823011806 138S 543E 45
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011818 135S 517E 55
0823011818 135S 517E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 13.5S 51.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 51.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.0S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.9S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.9S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.0S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 51.3E.
18JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
404 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND
192100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181851
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/5/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.6 S / 51.7 E
(TREIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SO: 220 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 40 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2023 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 240 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

24H: 19/01/2023 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 250 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 110

36H: 20/01/2023 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SO: 0 NO: 240

48H: 20/01/2023 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SO: 0 NO: 240

60H: 21/01/2023 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SO: 0 NO: 240

72H: 21/01/2023 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, CHENESO A CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER
AVEC UN POINT CHAUD INTERMITTENT ET LE DEVELOPPEMENT D'UNE ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE TRES PUISSANTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. L'IMAGERIE
MICRO-ONDES RECUES DEPUIS 12Z MONTRE QU'UN COEUR INTERNE EST ENTRAIN
DE SE CONSTITUER. L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EST ESTIMEE A 55 KT EN
ACCORD AVEC UN T4.0 QUI PEUT ETRE ESTIME SUBJECTIVEMENT ET LES 54 KT
VUS PAR LA PASS SMAP DE 1432Z.

CHENESO RALENTIT SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST SUR LA
FACADE NORD DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX SITUES AU SUD. A
PARTIR DE DEMAIN, UN COL BAROMETRIQUE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SE MET
EN PLACE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SE
CONSTRUIT AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE
MAINTIENT SUR LE SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. CETTE CONFIGURATION EST
FAVORABLE A UN RECOUBEMENT VERS LE SUD DE LA TRAJECTOIRE AVEC UNE
VITESSE ASSEZ LENTE DE DEPLACEMENT. IL EXISTE UNE INCERTITUDE UN PEU
PLUS FORTE QUE LA NORMALE SUR LA LOCALISATION PRECISE ET LE TIMING DE
L'ARRIVEE SUR TERRE AVEC QUELQUES DUIVERGENCES PARMI LES MODELES. LA
PRESENTE PREVISION RETARDE UN PEU L'ATTERRISSAGE QUI DEVRAIT PLUTOT
SE FAIRE EN MATINEE.

LA DISPERSION AUGMENTE RAPIDEMENT AU-DELA, CE QUI REND
PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE APRES
L'ATTERRISSAGE. TROIS SCENARIO SONT ENCORE POSSIBLES. LE PREMIER FAIT
ENTRER LE SYSTEME SUR MADAGASCAR PUIS RESSORTIR A L'EST EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE. LE SECOND SCENARIO FAIT TRAVERSER MADAGASCAR ET LE FAIT
RESSORTIR SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE. ENFIN LE
TROISIEME SCENARIO PROPOSE UNE FIN DE VIE DU SYSTEME SUR MADAGASCAR.
C'EST L'OPTION MAINTENANT PRIVILEGIEE PAR LE CMRS. CEPENDANT,
L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE RESTE TRES IMPORTANTE AU DELA DE 36H
ET LES AUTRES SCENARIOS NE SONT PAS COMPLETEMENT ECARTES.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, MALGRE LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE
SECTEUR EST DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, L'INTENSIFICATION DE CHENESO
DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE AVEC UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES.
ON NE PEUT PAS COMPLETEMENT EXCLURE UNE INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'AU
STADE DU CYCLONE NOTAMMENT SI L'ATTERRISSAGE SE FAIT UN PEU PLUS
TARDIVEMENT. PUIS AVEC L'INTERACTION AVEC LE RELIEF DE MADAGASCAR, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- DE FORTES PLUIES VONT SE POURSUIVRE CE SOIR SUR LE NORD-EST DE
MADAGASCAR AVEC L'APPROCHE DU SYSTEME. CES FORTES PLUIES VONT ENSUITE
AU MOINS DURER JUSQU'A DIMANCHE EN S'ETENDANT D'UNE PART LE LONG DE
LA COTE ET RELIEFS DU CENTRE EST (DANS LE MAXIMUM DE CONVERGENCE DES
VENTS D'EST) ET D'AUTRE PART SUR UNE BONNE PARTIE NORD-OUEST (FORTE
POUSSEE DU FLUX DE MOUSSON ALIMENTANT LA PARTIE NORD DE LA
CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE). LES CUMULS ATTENDUES SUR LES 3
PROCHAINS JOURS DEPASSENT LES 200 MM SUR UNE GRANDE PARTIE DES
SECTEURS CONCERNES AVEC LOCALEMENT PLUS DE 500 MM SUR LE RELIEF DU
NORD.

- DES CONDITIONS DE VENTS FORTS (COUP DE VENT) SONT ATTENDUES DES CE
SOIR MERCREDI ENTRE L'ILE SAINTE-MARIE AU SUD ET VOHEMAR PLUS AU
NORD. DES CONDITIONS DE VENTS DESTRUCTEURS (TEMPETE) SONT POSSIBLES A
PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISAGE.

- UN ETAT DE MER DANGEREUX AVEC DES CREUX MOYENS DE PLUS DE 4M VONT
EGALEMENT CONCERNER LE LITTORAL NORD-EST DE MADAGASCAR AU NORD DU CAP
MASOALA DES CE SOIR MERCREDI PUIS AU LARGE DE L'ILE SAINTE MARIE
DEMAIN. UN RISQUE DE SUBMERSION COTIERE EST LOCALEMENT POSSIBLE
PROCHE DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181851
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/5/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 51.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 220 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 40 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/19 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

24H: 2023/01/19 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 110

36H: 2023/01/20 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SW: 0 NW: 240

48H: 2023/01/20 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SW: 0 NW: 240

60H: 2023/01/21 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SW: 0 NW: 240

72H: 2023/01/21 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CHENESO HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY WITH AN
INTERMITTENT HOT SPOT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY COLLECTED
SINCE 12Z SHOWS THAT AN INTERNAL CORE IS BUILDING UP. THE INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A T4.0 WHICH
CAN BE ESTIMATED SUBJECTIVELY AND A VMAX OF 54 KT SEEN BY THE SMAP
PASS OF 1432Z.

CHENESO IS SLOWING DOWN ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS LOCATED IN THE SOUTH. FROM TOMORROW, A
MID-TROPOSPHERE BAROMETRIC COLLAR IS BUILDING SOUTH OF THE
MASCAREIGNES AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS BUILDING NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH
OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE TO A GRADUAL
SOUTHWARD TURN WITH AT A SLOWER SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THERE IS A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE
LANDFALL WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE PRESENT
FORECAST DELAYS A LITTLE THE LANDING WHICH SHOULD BE DONE IN THE
MORNING.

THE DISPERSION INCREASES RAPIDLY AFTER LANDING, WHICH MAKES THE TRACK
PREDICTION AFTER LANDING PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. THREE SCENARIOS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. THE FIRST ONE MAKES THE SYSTEM ENTER OVER MADAGASCAR
AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST AT THE END OF THE TRAJECTORY. THE SECOND
SCENARIO MAKES THE SYSTEM CROSS MADAGASCAR AND EXIT ON THE MOZAMBIQUE
CANAL AT THE END OF THE FLIGHT. FINALLY THE THIRD SCENARIO PROPOSES
AN END OF LIFE OF THE SYSTEM ON MADAGASCAR. THIS IS THE OPTION NOW
FAVORED BY THE CMRS. HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRAJECTORY
REMAINS VERY IMPORTANT BEYOND 36H AND THE OTHER SCENARIOS ARE NOT
COMPLETELY DISCARDED.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE INTENSIFICATION OF CHENESO SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL LANDING WITH A GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY EXCLUDE AN
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ESPECIALLY IF THE
LANDFALL IS DONE A LITTLE LATER. THEN WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE
RELIEF OF MADAGASCAR, THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN ON THURSDAY.

IMPACTS ON THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL THEN LAST AT LEAST
UNTIL SUNDAY, SPREADING ON THE ONE HAND ALONG THE COAST AND MONTAINS
OF THE CENTER EAST (WITH EASTERLY ONSHORE WINDS) AND ON THE OTHER
HAND ON A GOOD PART OF NORTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR (STRONG MONSOON FLOW
FEEDING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION). THE EXPECTED
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS EXCEED 200 MM OVER A LARGE PART OF
THE CONCERNED AREAS WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 500 MM OVER THE NORTHERN
RELIEF.

- STRONG WIND CONDITIONS (GALE) ARE EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT WEDNESDAY
BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND IN THE SOUTH AND VOHEMAR IN THE NORTH.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND CONDITIONS (STORM) ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDING
ZONE.

- A DANGEROUS SEA STATE WITH AVERAGE WAVES OF MORE THAN 4M WILL ALSO
CONCERN THE NORTH-EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR NORTH OF CAP MASOALA FROM
TONIGHT WEDNESDAY THEN OFF SAINTE MARIE ISLAND TOMORROW. A RISK OF
COASTAL SUBMERSION IS LOCALLY POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 181839
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 18/01/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 51.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 600 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/19 AT 06 UTC:
14.3 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/19 AT 18 UTC:
15.3 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181238
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/5/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/01/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.6 S / 52.4 E
(TREIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 220 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2023 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 19/01/2023 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 0

36H: 20/01/2023 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 0

48H: 20/01/2023 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 21/01/2023 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 21/01/2023 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/01/2023 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 23/01/2023 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ORGANISATION DU SYSTEME S'EST
NETTEMENT AMELIOREE AVEC UNE STRUCTURE EN BANDE INCURVEE QUI S'EST
ACCENTUEE AVEC UNE CONVECTION PLUS PROFONDE ET UNE TEMPERATURE DES
SOMMETS DES NUAGES QUI S'EST REFROIDIE. IL A DONC ETE DECIDE,AVEC LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR, DE BAPTISER LA TEMPETE
TROPICALE CHENESO A 09UTC. PAR AILLEURS, L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE GMI DE
1005Z CONFIRME LA PRESENCE D'UN OEIL BIEN VISIBLE EN 37GHZ ET UNE
CONVECTION QUI S'ORGANISE AUTOUR DU CENTRE EN 87 GHZ. EN POURSUIVANT
SON INTENSIFICATION DEPUIS LE BAPTEME, LE CMRS ESTIME LES VENTS MAX A
45KT AVEC UNE PRESSION MINIMALE DE 992HPA.
LE VORTEX SECONDAIRE, SITUE A 12.13S/56.59E SUR L'IMAGE VISIBLE, N'A
DONC PAS PENALISE L'INTENSIFICATION DE CHENESO.

CHENESO SE DEPLACE ENCORE ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST
SUR LA FACADE NORD DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX SITUES AU
SUD. CE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H
EN RALENTISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, UN COL
BAROMETRIQUE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SE MET EN PLACE AU SUD DES
MASCAREIGNES ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SE CONSTRUIT AU
NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE MAINTIENT SUR LE SUD
DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. LES MODELES GLOBAUX SONT PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD
SUR LA PORTION ZONALE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE PROPOSANT UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR
LE NORD-EST DE MADAGASCAR EN FIN DE NUIT DE MERCREDI OU JEUDI EN TOUT
DEBUT DE MATINEE.
LA DISPERSION AUGMENTE RAPIDEMENT AU-DELA, CE QUI REND
PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE APRES
L'ATTERRISSAGE. TROIS SCENARIO SONT ENCORE POSSIBLES. LE PREMIER FAIT
ENTRER LE SYSTEME SUR MADAGASCAR PUIS RESSORTIR A L'EST EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE. C'ETAIT JUSQUE LA LE SCENARIO PRIVILIGIE PAR L'ENSEMBLE
EUROPEEN AINSI QUE PAR LE CMRS. LE SECOND SCENARIO FAIT TRAVERSER
MADAGASCAR ET LE FAIT RESSORTIR SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE. C'EST LE SCENARIO PORTE PAR L'ENSEMBLE AMERICAIN. ENFIN
LE TROISIEME SCENARIO PROPOSE UNE FIN DE VIE DU SYSTEME SUR
MADAGASCAR.
LA PHILOSOPHIE DE L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN SEMBLE SUR LE DERNIER RUN A SE
RAPPROCHER DE LA PROPOSITION DE L'ENSEMBLE AMERICAIN. LE CHOIX DU
CMRS A ETE DE SE RAPPROCHER DE CES PROPOSITIONS EN TERME DE
TRAJECTOIRE ET DONC DE REVOIR LA TRAJECTOIRE PLUS A L'OUEST EN
RESTANT SUR MADAGASCAR. CEPENDANT, L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
RESTE TRES IMPORTANTE AU DELA DE 36H ET LES AUTRES SCENARIOS NE SONT
PAS COMPLETEMENT ECARTES.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, MALGRE LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE
SECTEUR EST DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, L'INTENSIFICATION DE CHENESO
DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE AVEC UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES.
PUIS AVEC L'INTERACTION AVEC LE RELIEF DE MADAGASCAR, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI. LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE SE RAPPROCHE DES GUIDANCES SUGGERANT UNE INTENSIFICATION
MODEREE, POUVANT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE JUSTE
AVANT DE TOUCHER TERRE SUR MADAGASCAR.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H.

MADAGASCAR:
- DE FORTES PLUIES VONT SE POURSUIVRE CE SOIR SUR LE NORD-EST DE
MADAGASCAR AVEC L'APPROCHE DU SYSTEME. CES FORTES PLUIES VONT ENSUITE
AU MOINS DURER JUSQU'A DIMANCHE EN S'ETENDANT A TOUTE LA PARTIE NORD
DE LA GRANDE ILE (AU NORD D'UN AXE TAMATAVE - MAJUNGA) EN LIEN AVEC
L'ETABLISSEMENT D'UN FLUX DE MOUSSON TRES ACTIF. LES CUMULS SUR 4
JOURS DEPASSENT LES 250 MM SUR UNE GRANDE PARTIE DE LA ZONE AVEC
LOCALEMENT PLUS DE 500 MM SUR LE RELIEF DU NORD.

- DES CONDITIONS DE VENTS FORTS (COUP DE VENT) SONT ATTENDUES DES CE
SOIR MERCREDI ENTRE L'ILE SAINTE-MARIE AU SUD ET SAMBAVA PLUS AU
NORD. DES CONDITIONS DE VENTS DESTRUCTEURS (TEMPETE) SONT POSSIBLES A
PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISAGE.

- UN ETAT DE MER DANGEREUX AVEC DES CREUX MOYENS DE PLUS DE 4M VONT
EGALEMENT CONCERNER LE LITTORAL NORD-EST DE MADAGASCAR AU NORD DU CAP
MASOALA DES CE SOIR MERCREDI PUIS AU LARGE DE L'ILE SAINTE MARIE
DEMAIN. UN RISQUE DE SUBMERSION COTIERE EST LOCALEMENT POSSIBLE
PROCHE DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/5/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)

2.A POSITION 2023/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 52.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/19 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2023/01/19 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 0

36H: 2023/01/20 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 0

48H: 2023/01/20 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/01/21 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/01/21 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/22 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2023/01/23 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY
IMPROVED WITH A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE THAT HAS BECOME MORE MARKED
WITH DEEPER CONVECTION AND A COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. IT WAS
THEREFORE DECIDED, WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MADAGASCAR, TO
NAME THE TROPICAL STORM CHENESO AT 09UTC. MOREOVER, THE GMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE OF 1005Z CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A WELL VISIBLE EYE IN 37GHZ
AND A CONVECTION WHICH IS ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER IN 87 GHZ.
CONTINUING ITS INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE NAMING, THE CMRS ESTIMATES
THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 45KT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 992HPA.
THE SECONDARY VORTEX, LOCATED AT 12.13S/56.59E ON THE VISIBLE IMAGE,
HAS NOT PENALIZED THE INTENSIFICATION OF CHENESO.

CHENESO IS STILL MOVING QUITE RAPIDLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED IN THE SOUTH. THIS
MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BY SLOWING DOWN
GRADUALLY. FROM TOMORROW, A MID-TROPOSPHERIC BAROMETRIC COLLAR WILL
SET UP SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE EQUATOR WILL BUILD UP NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MAINTAINED OVER THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE RATHER IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE ZONAL
PORTION OF THE TRACK PROPOSING A LANDING ON THE NORTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR AT THE END OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE DISPERSION INCREASES RAPIDLY BEYOND THAT, WHICH MAKES THE TRACK
PREDICTION AFTER LANDING PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. THREE SCENARIOS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. THE FIRST ONE MAKES THE SYSTEM ENTER OVER MADAGASCAR
AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST AT THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WAS THE
SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE EUROPEAN GROUP AND BY THE CMRS. THE SECOND
SCENARIO IS TO CROSS MADAGASCAR AND EMERGE ON THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
AT THE END OF THE TIMELINE. THIS IS THE SCENARIO CARRIED BY THE
AMERICAN GROUP. FINALLY THE THIRD SCENARIO PROPOSES AN END OF LIFE OF
THE SYSTEM ON MADAGASCAR.
THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE EUROPEAN GROUP SEEMS ON THE LAST RUN TO BE
CLOSE TO THE PROPOSAL OF THE AMERICAN GROUP. THE CHOICE OF CMRS WAS
TO GET CLOSER TO THESE PROPOSALS IN TERMS OF TRACK AND THUS TO REVISE
THE TRACK FURTHER WEST WHILE STAYING ON MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK REMAINS VERY IMPORTANT BEYOND 36H AND THE
OTHER SCENARIOS ARE NOT COMPLETELY DISCARDED.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE INTENSIFICATION OF CHENESO SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL LANDING WITH A GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THEN WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE
MADAGASCAR RELIEF, THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN ON THURSDAY. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION, POSSIBLY REACHING THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM JUST BEFORE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL THEN LAST AT LEAST
UNTIL SUNDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO THE WHOLE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISLAND
(NORTH OF A TAMATAVE - MAJUNGA AXIS) IN CONNECTION WITH THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OVER
4 DAYS EXCEEDED 250 MM OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY
MORE THAN 500 MM OVER THE NORTHERN RELIEF.

- STRONG WIND CONDITIONS (GALE) ARE EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT WEDNESDAY
BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND IN THE SOUTH AND SAMBAVA IN THE NORTH.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND CONDITIONS (STORM) ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDING
ZONE.

- A DANGEROUS SEA STATE WITH AVERAGE WAVES OF MORE THAN 4M WILL ALSO
AFFECT THE NORTH-EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR NORTH OF CAP MASOALA FROM
TONIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THEN OFF SAINTE MARIE ISLAND TOMORROW. A RISK
OF COASTAL SUBMERSION IS LOCALLY POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMPACT AREA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 181208
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 18/01/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 52.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 600 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
13.8 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
14.6 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>