Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for CHENESO-23 in Madagascar from 18 Jan 2023 04:00 UTC to 29 Jan 2023 04:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23

in Madagascar

18 Jan 2023 06 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	94 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.1 m (18 Jan 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	94 km/h	1.1 m	104 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	151 km/h	1.5 m	905 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

151 km/h

Up to 210 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Madagascar	212,915

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	18 Jan 2023 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	18 Jan 2023 06:00	130	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	139,633
100-250 mm	Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi	7,144,431	+
	Madagascar	5,873,136
	Mozambique	265,960
	Malawi	1,005,333
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Zambia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Mauritius	16,998,836	+
	Tanzania	817,493
	Zambia	4,559
	Madagascar	7,534,645
	Mozambique	3,388,424
	Malawi	4,510,528
	Zimbabwe	32,873
	Mauritius	710,311

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	18 Jan 2023 00:00	85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	18 Jan 2023 06:00	502	7.3 million				-	-	-	Tanzania, Zambia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Mauritius

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Toamasina, Anantoraka, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18/01/2023 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18/01/2023 02:00	Toamasina, Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	18/01/2023 23:00	, Nosy Komba Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	18/01/2023 23:00	Antsiranana, Nossi-be Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	18/01/2023 00:00	Mjini-Magharibi (Zanzibar Urban/West), Zanzibar Fumba	Tanzania	0.2
	18/01/2023 00:00	Pwani, Msindaji	Tanzania	0.2
	18/01/2023 23:00	Antsiranana, Andranira	Madagascar	0.2
	18/01/2023 00:00	Pwani, Magawa	Tanzania	0.2
	18/01/2023 16:00	Antsiranana, Ampana Kanana	Madagascar	0.2
	18/01/2023 16:00	Antsiranana, Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.2
	18/01/2023 12:00	Toamasina, Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	18/01/2023 09:00	Sofala, Machesse	Mozambique	0.2
	18/01/2023 23:00	, Nosy Mitsio Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.2
	18/01/2023 12:00	Toamasina, Anoromby	Madagascar	0.2
	18/01/2023 07:00	Mahajanga, Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.2
	20/01/2023 09:00	Sofala, Jonja	Mozambique	0.2
	18/01/2023 13:00	, Maxixe	Mozambique	0.1
	18/01/2023 12:00	Antsiranana, Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	18/01/2023 11:00	Zambezia, Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.1
	18/01/2023 00:00	Pwani, Kisiju	Tanzania	0.1
	19/01/2023 08:00	Toamasina, Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	18/01/2023 20:00	, Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	18/01/2023 20:00	Toamasina, Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	18/01/2023 00:00	Tanga, Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	18/01/2023 17:00	Antsiranana, Amboanio	Madagascar	0.1
	18/01/2023 17:00	Toamasina, Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	19/01/2023 12:00	Mahajanga, Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	18/01/2023 00:00	Dar-es-Salaam, Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	18/01/2023 20:00	Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	18/01/2023 08:00	Antsiranana, Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	18/01/2023 10:00	Zambezia, Mulia	Mozambique	0.1
	18/01/2023 00:00	Pwani, Chole	Tanzania	0.1
	20/01/2023 23:00	Mahajanga, Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	18/01/2023 00:00	Dar-es-Salaam, Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	18/01/2023 02:00	Toamasina, Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	18/01/2023 00:00	Tanga, Bomalandani	Tanzania	0.1
	18/01/2023 22:00	Zambezia, Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	18/01/2023 20:00	Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	18/01/2023 08:00	Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	20/01/2023 10:00	, Mutiba	Mozambique	0.1
	18/01/2023 08:00	, Mocambique	Mozambique	0.1
	18/01/2023 08:00	Antsiranana, Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	19/01/2023 12:00	Antsiranana, Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	19/01/2023 12:00	Antsiranana, Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.1
	18/01/2023 09:00	, Chicoque	Mozambique	0.1
	18/01/2023 10:00	Mahajanga, Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	20/01/2023 09:00	, Bartolomeu Dias	Mozambique	0.1
	18/01/2023 23:00	Cabo Delgado, Pangome	Mozambique	0.1
	18/01/2023 03:00	Antsiranana, Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.1
	18/01/2023 07:00	Toamasina, Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	18/01/2023 04:00	Toamasina, Ambila-Lemaitso	Madagascar	0.1
	19/01/2023 10:00	Toamasina, Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	18/01/2023 04:00	Toamasina, Tampina	Madagascar	0.0
	20/01/2023 20:00	Toamasina, Ampanotoamaizina	Madagascar	0.0
	20/01/2023 20:00	Toamasina, Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.0
	19/01/2023 13:00	Inhambane, Inhassoro	Mozambique	0.0
	20/01/2023 21:00	Toamasina, Antetezambaro	Madagascar	0.0
	18/01/2023 03:00	Toliara, Manambato	Madagascar	0.0
	20/01/2023 20:00	Toamasina, Tamatave	Madagascar	0.0
	20/01/2023 23:00	Nampula, Coropoa	Mozambique	0.0
	20/01/2023 20:00	Toamasina, Marosiky	Madagascar	0.0
	19/01/2023 13:00	, Marivate	Mozambique	0.0
	20/01/2023 10:00	, Mariano	Mozambique	0.0
	18/01/2023 01:00	Fianarantsoa, Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.0
	20/01/2023 20:00	Toamasina, Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.0
	19/01/2023 08:00	KwaZulu Natal, Mapelana	South Africa	0.0
	20/01/2023 13:00	Inhambane, Ilha do Bazaruto Asneira	Mozambique	0.0
	20/01/2023 22:00	Toliara, Saint Augustin	Madagascar	0.0
	19/01/2023 12:00	Maputo, David	Mozambique	0.0
	19/01/2023 12:00	KwaZulu Natal, Enkovukeni	South Africa	0.0
	20/01/2023 20:00	Fianarantsoa, Mananjary	Madagascar	0.0
	20/01/2023 20:00	Fianarantsoa, Manakara	Madagascar	0.0
	20/01/2023 12:00	, Miramar	Mozambique	0.0
	20/01/2023 23:00	Inhambane, Guinjala	Mozambique	0.0
	20/01/2023 20:00	Fianarantsoa, Itenina	Madagascar	0.0
	20/01/2023 20:00	Fianarantsoa, Loharano	Madagascar	0.0
	20/01/2023 20:00	Fianarantsoa, Anakitaina	Madagascar	0.0
	18/01/2023 00:00	Toliara, Beaniky	Madagascar
	18/01/2023 00:00	Toliara, Mitriaky	Madagascar
	18/01/2023 00:00	Fianarantsoa, Akondro	Madagascar
	18/01/2023 00:00	Fianarantsoa, Amboboka	Madagascar
	18/01/2023 00:00	Fianarantsoa, Manambotra	Madagascar
	18/01/2023 00:00	, Sainte-Suzanne	Reunion
	18/01/2023 00:00	, Gambrani Island La Ferme	Mauritius
	18/01/2023 00:00	, Ile Amsterdam La Roche Godon	French Southern and Antarctic Lands

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