Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
18 Jan 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 94 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (18 Jan 03:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 94 km/h 0.6 m 85 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 151 km/h 1.5 m 905 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

151 km/h

Up to 230 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar228,320 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 133 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar331,801 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Mozambique, Malawi5,897,602
+
Malawi6,500 
Mozambique237,486 
Madagascar5,653,614 
50-100 mmTanzania, Zambia, Mauritius, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Reunion15,804,708
+
Tanzania912,802 
Zambia102,071 
Mauritius264 
Malawi7,417,676 
Mozambique3,524,635 
Madagascar3,683,755 
Reunion163,502 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 385 6.2 million
- - - Tanzania, Zambia, Mauritius, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Toamasina, Anantoraka, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18/01/2023 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18/01/2023 09:00 Toamasina, Anantoraka Madagascar  0.4
18/01/2023 05:00 Mjini-Magharibi (Zanzibar Urban/West), Zanzibar Fumba Tanzania  0.3
18/01/2023 15:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.3
18/01/2023 18:00 Toamasina, Maintimbato Madagascar  0.3
18/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 15:00 Sofala, Machesse Mozambique  0.2
18/01/2023 18:00 Toamasina, Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 06:00 Pwani, Msindaji Tanzania  0.2
18/01/2023 23:00 , Nosy Komba Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
19/01/2023 05:00 Antsiranana, Nossi-be Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 06:00 Pwani, Magawa Tanzania  0.2
18/01/2023 20:00 Antsiranana, Ampana Kanana Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 03:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
18/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 14:00 Toamasina, Manompana Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 14:00 Mahajanga, Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 05:00 Pwani, Kisiju Tanzania  0.2
18/01/2023 02:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 02:00 Antsiranana, Antsahalalina Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 21:00 Antsiranana, Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 05:00 Tanga, Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.2
18/01/2023 04:00 Antsiranana, Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
18/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 12:00 , Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 04:00 Antsiranana, Andranira Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Antsiranana, Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Antsiranana, Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 19:00 , Maxixe Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 , Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 , Mocambique Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 , Nosy Mitsio Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Tampina Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Dar-es-Salaam, Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Antsiranana, Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Antsiranana, Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Antsiranana, Ampondrabe Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Zambezia, Mulia Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Zambezia, Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Dar-es-Salaam, Msasani Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Antsiranana, Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Kaskazini-Unguja (Zanzibar North), Zanzibar Gazija Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Pwani, Chole Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Cabo Delgado, Ingoane Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 19:00 Antsiranana, Amboanio Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Antsiranana, Ampaha Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 , Praslin Island Anse Volbert Village Seychelles  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Antsiranana, Andrapengy Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Mahajanga, Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Cabo Delgado, Pangome Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Mahajanga, Baly Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Tanga, Bomalandani Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Coast, Watamu Kenya  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 , Pangane Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 06:00 Kusini Unguja (Zanzibar Central/South), Zanzibar Dikoni Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 06:00 Dar-es-Salaam, Bandarini Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 06:00 Dar-es-Salaam, Kutani Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 , Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Antsiranana, Antalaha Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Nampula, Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 06:00 Kaskazini-Unguja (Zanzibar North), Zanzibar Mdudu Mdogo Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Mahajanga, Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Pwani, Jimbo Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Nampula, Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Tamatave Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Cabo Delgado, Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Mahajanga, Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Cabo Delgado, Ombauine Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Cabo Delgado, Morumequina Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Coast, Mtwapa Kenya  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 , Grande Comore Chezani Comoros  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Coast, Kisima Chande Kenya  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Inhambane, Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Cabo Delgado, Bawala Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Coast, Kijipwa Kenya  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 , Dzaoudzi Mayotte  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Toamasina, Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 , Tavari Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Nampula, Macalopa Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Coast, Mkwiro Kenya  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Kusini-Pemba (Pemba South), Pemba Kitwea Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Kaskazini-Pemba (Pemba North), Pemba Kiuyu Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 01:00 Toamasina, Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Nampula, Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 , Mariano Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 , Cabaceira Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 , Marivate Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 04:00 Nampula, Miaola Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Fianarantsoa, Itenina Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Inhambane, Ilha do Bazaruto Asneira Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 07:00 Toliara, Manambato Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 07:00 Fianarantsoa, Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 , Chicoque Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 01:00 Toliara, Beaniky Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 03:00 Fianarantsoa, Manakara Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 02:00 Maputo, David Mozambique  0.0
18/01/2023 02:00 , Miramar Mozambique  0.0
18/01/2023 02:00 KwaZulu Natal, Mapelana South Africa  0.0
18/01/2023 02:00 Toamasina, Mahanoro Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 00:00 Toliara, Mitriaky Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 00:00 Toliara, Saint Augustin Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 02:00 KwaZulu Natal, Enkovukeni South Africa  0.0
18/01/2023 02:00 Inhambane, Guinjala Mozambique  0.0
18/01/2023 02:00 , Sainte-Suzanne Reunion  0.0
18/01/2023 02:00 Fianarantsoa, Anakitaina Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 02:00 , Gambrani Island La Ferme Mauritius  0.0
18/01/2023 02:00 Fianarantsoa, Manambotra Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 02:00 Fianarantsoa, Amboboka Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 02:00 Fianarantsoa, Mananjary Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 02:00 Fianarantsoa, Loharano Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 02:00 Fianarantsoa, Akondro Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 01:00 , Ile Amsterdam La Roche Godon French Southern and Antarctic Lands  0.0