Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population 3 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 101 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.2 m (11 Apr 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 101 km/h 2.2 m 103 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 166 km/h 1.6 m 787 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

166 km/h

Up to 80 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Australia02 
CAT. 1Australia2,598 
Tropical StormAustralia78,383 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 115 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 104 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 162 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Apr 2021 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 08 Apr 2021 12:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 08 Apr 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 09 Apr 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 09 Apr 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 09 Apr 2021 12:00 184 3 thousand
- - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmAustralia3,953 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 237 30 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Timor-Leste
Blue 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 227 30 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 252 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Timor-Leste
Blue 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 220 5 thousand
- - - - Timor-Leste, Indonesia
Blue 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 169 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 277 2 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 410 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 447 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 417 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 298 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 424 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 553 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 359 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 335 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Apr 2021 06:00 216 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 08 Apr 2021 12:00 185 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 08 Apr 2021 18:00 131 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 09 Apr 2021 00:00 120 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 09 Apr 2021 06:00 93 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 09 Apr 2021 12:00 469 -
- - - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.2m in Tamala, Australia. This height is estimated for 11 Apr 2021 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Apr 2021 13:00 Tamala Australia  2.2
11 Apr 2021 10:15 Useless Loop Australia  2.0
11 Apr 2021 10:30 Dirk Hartog Australia  1.9
11 Apr 2021 14:15 Hamelin Pool Australia  1.8
11 Apr 2021 14:15 Hamelin Australia  1.8
11 Apr 2021 13:45 Nanga Australia  1.7
11 Apr 2021 14:00 Carrarang Australia  1.6
11 Apr 2021 15:15 Gladstone Australia  1.6
11 Apr 2021 11:00 Denham Australia  1.6
11 Apr 2021 15:45 Shark Bay Australia  1.3
11 Apr 2021 15:45 Monkey Mia Australia  1.3
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Carnarvon Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 15:15 Horrocks Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 15:15 Drummond Cove Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 15:15 Popes Landing Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Gregory Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 15:00 Lynton Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 15:15 Waggrakine Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 15:30 Geraldton Australia  0.7
11 Apr 2021 13:15 Kalbarri Australia  0.6
11 Apr 2021 15:30 Greenough Australia  0.5
10 Apr 2021 09:30 Learmonth Australia  0.5
11 Apr 2021 19:00 Denison Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 19:00 Port Denison Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 19:00 Dongara Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 11:00 Quobba Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Illawong Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Coolimba Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 11:00 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.4
10 Apr 2021 06:45 Exmouth Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 21:00 Mardie Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Leeman Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Onslow Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 17:45 Green Head Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 21:00 Ah Chong I Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 07:15 Warroora Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:00 Jurien Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 18:45 Glenroy Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 07:00 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Kencong Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Lodjedjer Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 18:30 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 18:30 Dampier Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Derby Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 18:15 Cervantes Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 19:00 Wickham Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 19:00 Point Samson Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 19:00 Cossack Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Aplame Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Woereh Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Lewohajong Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Koekoewerang Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Throng Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Adoenara Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Lamakera Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Papelawe Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Sagu Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Wotanglolong Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Lewokeling Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Witihama Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Boleng Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Nereng Indonesia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 00:00 Cardabia Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 17:15 Karratha Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 16:15 Menango Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 16:15 Tandjungkarang Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 16:15 Telukbetung Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 16:15 Tarahan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Lewoleba Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:30 Lamanuna Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:45 Kandangan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:45 Gresik Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:45 Pangkalan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:45 Batoe Porong Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:45 Kebanjar Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 21:00 Lancelin Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 20:15 Ningaloo Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 16:15 Bunbury Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 16:15 Binningup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 16:15 Myalup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 16:15 Picton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 16:15 Eaton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 16:15 Burragenup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 16:15 Australind Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Gunyulgup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Yallingup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Dunsborough Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Quindalup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Vasse Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Broadwater Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 17:15 Busselton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 15:15 Wonnerup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 16:15 Ludlow Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 16:15 Dalyellup Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 02:30 Maringgai Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:30 Baliga Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:30 Laboean Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 17:45 Pardoo Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Port Hedland Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Wedgefield Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 02:00 Safety Bay Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 02:00 Rockingham Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 02:00 Fremantle Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 02:00 Warnbro Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 02:00 North Fremantle Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 02:00 East Fremantle Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 02:00 Coogee Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 02:00 Spearwood Australia  0.2
12 Apr 2021 02:00 Wattleup Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 21:45 Seabird Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 21:45 Guilderton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 21:45 Two Rocks Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 02:00 Falcon Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 02:00 Mandurah Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 02:00 Peelhurst Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 02:00 Singleton Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 02:00 Karnup Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Pasuruan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Bayeman Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:15 Aerdjeruk Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 21:45 Gracetown Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 15:15 Tjikawung Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 15:15 Sumur Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Oeboeah Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Hansisi Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Naioni Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Tenau Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Manoelairoti Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Namosain Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Kupang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Soelamoe Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Maoelafa Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Pitai Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Manikin Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Pariti Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Naimoeti Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:30 Chilachap Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:30 Adipala Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:30 Binangoen Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 22:00 Yanchep Australia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 06:15 Ngalu Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 06:15 Tapil Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 15:00 Ajah Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 15:45 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Laboean Mapin Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Alas Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Pernang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 00:45 Quinns Rock Australia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 22:00 Mullalloo Beach Australia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 22:00 North Beach Australia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 22:00 Scarborough Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:30 Kiluan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:30 Kekatang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:45 Sidoardjo Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 23:30 Lamararap Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Oenggae Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Nordale Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Korlo Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Suaha Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Keoen Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Daeoerendale Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Akle Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Eahun Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Pepela Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Roti Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Batuidu Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Usulain Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Oisina Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:45 Tablolong Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 07:00 Broome Australia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 07:00 Thangoo Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 02:15 Domas Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 02:15 Tanara Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 02:15 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:15 Waterbank Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 01:15 Mosman Park Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 01:15 Cottesloe Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 01:15 Peppermint Grove Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 01:15 Swanbourne Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 01:15 Claremont Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 01:15 Bicton Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Sumberkuning Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Sampang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:30 Sindangsari Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:30 Cijulang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:30 Cikalong Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:30 Pangadaran Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 21:15 Umbulan Pepanggar Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 21:15 Kalianda Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 17:00 Condon Australia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 02:15 Kramat Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 02:15 Cengkarengbelakang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 02:30 Tipar Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:45 Probolinggo Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 02:30 Balubuk Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 17:00 Petanahan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:45 Karanganjar Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:45 Chikalong Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:45 Kalapagenep Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 07:15 Cilancang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 07:15 Cirebon Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Lungkung Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Lembongan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Tojapakeh Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Batoemadeg Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Batoemoenggoel Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:00 Tanglad Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 05:45 Blimbing Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 05:45 Dadapan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 05:45 Banyuwangi Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 05:45 Banjuwangi Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 05:45 Soega Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 05:45 Gilimanuk Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 05:45 Penginoeman Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 05:45 Belimbingsari Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 05:45 Tjandikesuma Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 02:15 Merak Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Prenduan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Djate Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Bluto Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Saroka Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Sumenep Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Bundan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Gedugan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:00 Brassan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 16:00 Muntjar Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 19:15 Bangkulua Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 19:15 Huu Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 19:15 Madawa Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 19:15 Polo Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Gending Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Kraksaan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:45 Galis Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 07:15 Karangampel Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 15:45 Pahanuma Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 15:45 Belowa Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 02:30 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:45 Karagajar Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 07:15 Losan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:00 Condro Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 19:00 Djagalaja Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 07:45 Maoe Ndai Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 07:45 Manoeran Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 07:45 Pigadjawa Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 07:45 Nangaboa Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 07:45 Waroe Kasoe Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 07:45 Wassa Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:45 Kaliputjang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 14:00 Sape Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 14:00 Toronaroe Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 14:00 Badjo Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 10:00 Kendal Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 10:00 Mangkang-Kulan Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 10:00 Djomblang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 10:00 Semarang Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 10:00 Karangroto Indonesia  0.1
12 Apr 2021 07:30 Bulakamba Indonesia  0.1