Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for LORENA-19 in Mexico from 17 Sep 2019 15:00 UTC to 22 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-19

in Mexico

18 Sep 2019 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LORENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	90 km/h
Maximum storm surge	4.7 m (19 Sep 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	90 km/h	4.7 m	450 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	4.7 m	432 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

Up to 5 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	5,054

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	17 Sep 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Sep 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	18 Sep 2019 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Sep 2019 12:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
750-1000 mm	Mexico	48
500-750 mm	United States, Mexico	1,193	+
	United States	443
	Mexico	750
250-500 mm	United States, Mexico	848,733	+
	United States	177,040
	Mexico	671,693
100-250 mm	United States, Mexico	4,538,286	+
	United States	2,885,012
	Mexico	1,653,274
50-100 mm	United States, Mexico	6,905,762	+
	United States	5,451,117
	Mexico	1,454,645

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	17 Sep 2019 00:00	356	70 thousand	-	-	-	-	Mexico
2	17 Sep 2019 12:00	496	20 thousand	-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico
3	18 Sep 2019 00:00	372	1 million	-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico
4	18 Sep 2019 12:00	965	5.4 million				-	United States, Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

4.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 4.7m in Rancho Nuevo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 19 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Rancho Nuevo	Mexico	4.7
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Rancho de Piedra	Mexico	4.7
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Tecolutla	Mexico	4.5
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	La Guadalupe	Mexico	4.5
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Monte Gordo	Mexico	4.5
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Buen Pais	Mexico	4.1
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Alvarado	Mexico	4.1
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Conejo	Mexico	4.1
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Las Barrillas	Mexico	3.6
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Coatzacoalcos	Mexico	3.6
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Pueblo Viejo	Mexico	3.4
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Primero de Mayo	Mexico	3.4
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Tampico Alta	Mexico	3.4
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Tamiahua	Mexico	2.7
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	El Naranjal	Mexico	2.7
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Nautla	Mexico	2.6
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	El Laurel	Mexico	2.6
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	La Pesca	Mexico	2.3
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	San Cosme	Mexico	2.3
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Santa Marta	Mexico	2.3
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Tepeguahe	Mexico	1.7
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Los Pericos	Mexico	1.7
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Ursulo Galvan	Mexico	1.5
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon	Mexico	1.3
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Laja	Mexico	1.3
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Chiltepec	Mexico	0.9
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Laguna Heights	United States	0.9
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Port Isabel	United States	0.9
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Kopernik Shores	United States	0.9
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	South Padre Island	United States	0.9
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Boca Chica	United States	0.9
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	La Presita	Mexico	0.7
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Las Guayabas	Mexico	0.5
	18 Sep 2019 22:45	Aguaje	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 22:45	Ojo de Liebre	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 20:15	Cameron	United States	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 20:15	Holly Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 21:15	Johnson's Bayou	United States	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 21:15	Constance Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 21:15	Peveto Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 23:45	La Concepion	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 23:45	Barra de San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 20:15	Oak Grove	United States	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 21:15	Sabine	United States	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 23:45	Boqueron	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 23:45	Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 18:45	Grand Chenier	United States	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 16:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 21:00	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 22:30	Solo Dios	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 22:30	Arista	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 22:30	Buenavista	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 22:15	La Majada	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 22:15	Huajapan	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 23:45	San Francisco del Mar	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Salina Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Lagarto	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Costa Rica	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 21:00	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 18:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 18:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 17:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 22:45	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 23:00	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 17:15	Cedros	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 21:00	High Island	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 23:45	Pesqueria	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 15:15	San Felipe	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 23:30	Garrapateras	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 23:30	Majada Villalobos	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 18:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 18:45	Cuantla	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 23:00	Bajo de Arenal	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 23:00	Tangolunda	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 23:00	Mirador	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 23:30	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 23:30	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 23:30	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 23:00	Ayutla	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 13:30	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 13:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 13:30	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:15	Belmont Shore	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:15	Surfside	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:15	Seal Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:15	Sunset Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:15	Huntington Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:15	Newport Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:15	Cliff Haven	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:15	Bay Shores	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:15	Balboa	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:15	Corona del Mar	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:15	Crystal Cove	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 19:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:45	Montecito	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:45	Summerland	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:45	Serena Park	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:45	Franciscan Village	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:45	Carpinteria	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:45	Rincon	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:45	Shepards	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:45	Punta	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:45	Faria	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:45	Dulah	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 13:45	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 13:45	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:45	Hope Ranch	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:45	Mission	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 19:45	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 19:45	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 19:45	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 19:45	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Avalon	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 20:30	La Choya	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 23:15	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 18:45	San Buenaventura	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 18:45	Ventura	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 18:45	Isla Vista	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 18:45	Goleta	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 18:45	Hollywood By The Sea	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 18:45	Channel Islands Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 18:45	Oxnard	United States	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 21:45	Gilchrist	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:30	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:45	Coromar	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:15	San Joaquin Hills	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:15	Emerald Bay	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 17:30	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:15	Two Harbors	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 21:45	Bolivar Peninsula	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 21:45	Caplen	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Laguna Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Canyon Acres	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Top of the World	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	South Laguna	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Capistrano Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	San Clemente	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Agra	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:15	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 19:15	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 20:15	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Castellammare	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Pacific Palisades	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Santa Monica	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Sawtelle	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Marina del Rey	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Playa del Rey	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Alsace	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	El Segundo	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Manhattan Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Hermosa Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Palos Verdes Estates	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Clifton	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Redondo Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Rancho Palos Verdes	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Rolling Hills Estates	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Rolling Hills	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 22:00	El Real	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 22:00	Chupadero	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	San Pedro	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Wilmington	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 22:00	Apisa	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Las Flores	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Stuart	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Fallbrook Junction	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:00	Camp Pendleton South	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 16:45	Naples	United States	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.