Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for LORENA-19 in Mexico from 17 Sep 2019 15:00 UTC to 22 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-19

in Mexico

17 Sep 2019 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LORENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	4.7 m (18 Sep 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	65 km/h	4.7 m	496 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	4.7 m	432 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	17 Sep 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	17 Sep 2019 12:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
750-1000 mm	United States	462
500-750 mm	United States	1,516,444
250-500 mm	United States, Mexico	4,023,232	+
	United States	4,022,337
	Mexico	895
100-250 mm	United States, Mexico	3,509,043	+
	United States	1,839,290
	Mexico	1,669,753
50-100 mm	United States, Mexico	4,905,212	+
	United States	650,238
	Mexico	4,254,974

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	17 Sep 2019 00:00	356	70 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico
	2	17 Sep 2019 12:00	821	9 million						-	United States, Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

4.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 4.7m in Rancho Nuevo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 18 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Rancho Nuevo	Mexico	4.7
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Rancho de Piedra	Mexico	4.7
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Tecolutla	Mexico	4.5
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	La Guadalupe	Mexico	4.5
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Monte Gordo	Mexico	4.5
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Buen Pais	Mexico	4.1
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Alvarado	Mexico	4.1
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Conejo	Mexico	4.1
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Las Barrillas	Mexico	3.6
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Coatzacoalcos	Mexico	3.6
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Pueblo Viejo	Mexico	3.4
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Primero de Mayo	Mexico	3.4
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Tampico Alta	Mexico	3.4
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Tamiahua	Mexico	2.7
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	El Naranjal	Mexico	2.7
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Nautla	Mexico	2.6
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	El Laurel	Mexico	2.6
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	La Pesca	Mexico	2.3
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	San Cosme	Mexico	2.3
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Santa Marta	Mexico	2.3
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Tepeguahe	Mexico	1.7
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Los Pericos	Mexico	1.7
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Ursulo Galvan	Mexico	1.5
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon	Mexico	1.3
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Laja	Mexico	1.3
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Chiltepec	Mexico	0.9
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Laguna Heights	United States	0.9
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Port Isabel	United States	0.9
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Kopernik Shores	United States	0.9
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	South Padre Island	United States	0.9
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Boca Chica	United States	0.9
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	La Presita	Mexico	0.7
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Las Guayabas	Mexico	0.5
	17 Sep 2019 18:15	Flake	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 18:15	Elmgrove	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 18:15	Crystal Beach	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 18:15	Patton	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 18:15	Bolivar Peninsula	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 18:15	Caplen	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 18:15	Gilchrist	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 18:30	High Island	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 19:30	Sabine	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 17:45	Port Bolivar	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 17:45	Fort Travis	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 19:45	Johnson's Bayou	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 19:45	Constance Beach	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 19:45	Peveto Beach	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 17:15	Sea Isle	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 17:15	Hitchcock	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 17:15	Jamaica Beach	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 17:15	Anderson Ways	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 17:15	Virginia Point	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 17:15	Galveston	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 17:30	Texas City	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 16:45	Red Fish Cove	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 16:45	Bay Harbor	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 19:45	Holly Beach	United States	0.3
	17 Sep 2019 16:30	Hoskins	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 16:30	Port Morris	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 19:45	Cameron	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 16:45	Quintana	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 16:45	Surfside	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 16:45	Mims	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 16:45	Surfside Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Aguaje	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Ojo de Liebre	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 16:15	Gulf Park	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 16:15	Hoskins	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 16:15	Bryan Beach	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 16:15	Valasco Heights	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 16:15	Freeport	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 23:15	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 21:15	San Felipe	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 20:00	Oak Grove	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 20:00	Grand Chenier	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 20:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 21:00	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 23:15	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 22:15	Tecomate	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 22:15	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 15:45	Chinquapin	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 20:45	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 22:45	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 18:30	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 18:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 18:30	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 23:45	Barra de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 16:15	La Concepion	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 18:45	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 18:45	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 23:30	Molino	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 23:30	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 19:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 19:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 22:45	Solo Dios	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 19:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 19:45	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 21:15	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 18:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 15:30	Matagorda	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 17:45	Buenavista	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 21:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 17:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 17:00	Quinones	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.