Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for LORENA-19 in Mexico from 17 Sep 2019 15:00 UTC to 22 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-19

in Mexico

17 Sep 2019 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LORENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	4.7 m (17 Sep 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	65 km/h	4.7 m	356 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	4.7 m	432 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

Up to 2 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	2,318

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	17 Sep 2019 00:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	United States, Mexico	3,107,146	+
	United States	3,051,376
	Mexico	55,770
100-250 mm	United States, Mexico	5,395,478	+
	United States	3,995,371
	Mexico	1,400,107
50-100 mm	United States, Mexico	2,122,836	+
	United States	525,592
	Mexico	1,597,244

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	17 Sep 2019 00:00	751	8.5 million				-	-	-	United States, Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

4.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 4.7m in Rancho Nuevo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 17 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Rancho Nuevo	Mexico	4.7
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Rancho de Piedra	Mexico	4.7
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Tecolutla	Mexico	4.5
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	La Guadalupe	Mexico	4.5
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Monte Gordo	Mexico	4.5
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Buen Pais	Mexico	4.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Alvarado	Mexico	4.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Conejo	Mexico	4.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Las Barrillas	Mexico	3.6
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Coatzacoalcos	Mexico	3.6
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Pueblo Viejo	Mexico	3.4
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Primero de Mayo	Mexico	3.4
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Tampico Alta	Mexico	3.4
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Tamiahua	Mexico	2.7
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	El Naranjal	Mexico	2.7
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Nautla	Mexico	2.6
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	El Laurel	Mexico	2.6
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	La Pesca	Mexico	2.3
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	San Cosme	Mexico	2.3
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Santa Marta	Mexico	2.3
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Tepeguahe	Mexico	1.7
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Los Pericos	Mexico	1.7
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Ursulo Galvan	Mexico	1.5
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon	Mexico	1.3
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Laja	Mexico	1.3
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Chiltepec	Mexico	0.9
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Laguna Heights	United States	0.9
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Port Isabel	United States	0.9
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Kopernik Shores	United States	0.9
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	South Padre Island	United States	0.9
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Boca Chica	United States	0.9
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	La Presita	Mexico	0.7
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Las Guayabas	Mexico	0.5
	17 Sep 2019 09:15	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 09:15	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 08:30	La Choya	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 09:00	San Felipe	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 08:30	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 11:00	High Island	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 11:15	Bolivar Peninsula	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 11:15	Caplen	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 11:15	Gilchrist	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 10:45	Sabine	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 11:30	Flake	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 11:30	Elmgrove	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 11:30	Crystal Beach	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 11:30	Patton	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2019 09:45	Johnson's Bayou	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 09:45	Constance Beach	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 09:45	Peveto Beach	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 11:45	Port Bolivar	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 11:45	Fort Travis	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 09:45	Holly Beach	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Texas City	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Anderson Ways	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Virginia Point	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Galveston	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 07:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 07:15	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 09:15	Cameron	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 07:45	Oak Grove	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 07:45	Grand Chenier	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Red Fish Cove	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Bay Harbor	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Sea Isle	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Jamaica Beach	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Hitchcock	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Hoskins	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Port Morris	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 07:15	Molino	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 07:15	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 07:15	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 07:30	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Quintana	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Surfside	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Mims	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Surfside Beach	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 06:30	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 11:45	Gulf Park	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 11:45	Hoskins	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 11:45	Bryan Beach	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 11:45	Valasco Heights	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2019 11:45	Freeport	United States	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.