Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-19
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2019-09-22 15:30

WTPN33 PHNC 221600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 021
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 28.4N 111.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 28.4N 111.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 30.0N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221600Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 111.5W.
22SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
388 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z
IS 7 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-22 14:33

WTPZ45 KNHC 221432
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 22 2019

THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF WHAT IS LEFT OF LORENA CROSSED THE
COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THIS MORNING TO THE NORTHWEST OF
GUAYMAS. THE SYSTEM HAS DEGENERATED INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 28.8N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 23/0000Z 30.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-22 14:33

WTPZ35 KNHC 221431
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 22 2019

...LORENA DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 111.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA CROSSED THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO THIS MORNING. AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF THE
DISTURBANCE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.5
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9
MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE
DISTURBANCE FARTHER INLAND UNTIL DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NEAR 30 MPH
(45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

RAINFALL: THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER CENTRAL SONORA. THIS RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS IN SONORA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-22 14:33

WTPZ25 KNHC 221431
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 111.5W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 111.5W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.0N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 111.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-22 09:42

WTPN33 PHNC 221000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 27.8N 111.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 111.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 29.7N 111.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221000Z POSITION NEAR 28.4N 111.6W.
22SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
417 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E
(KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-22 08:58

WTPZ45 KNHC 220856
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
300 AM MDT SUN SEP 22 2019

VERY LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINS WITH LORENA, WITH ONLY A SMALL BURST
NEAR THE CENTER. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
LORENA, AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE DOWN TO 30
KT. ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED ON THIS
ADVISORY. LORENA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK
OR INTENSITY FORECASTS.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. LORENA MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING IN SONORA TODAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LORENA MAY ALSO RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN OVER PARTS OF ARIZONA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA ON MONDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 28.3N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 29.7N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE

>

2019-09-22 08:57

WTPZ35 KNHC 220855 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
300 AM MDT SUN SEP 22 2019

...LORENA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 111.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM WNW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF LORENA IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY A MOTION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL,
LORENA IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

>

2019-09-22 08:56

WTPZ35 KNHC 220855
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lorena Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...LORENA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 111.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM WNW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
warning for western mainland Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lorena
was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 111.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24
hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to
cross the coast of mainland Mexico during the next few hours,
followed by a motion across northwestern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is likely before landfall. After landfall,
Lorena is expected to rapidly weaken, and the system is forecast to
dissipate over northwestern Mexico later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over central Sonora, and additional rainfall of less
than one inch over Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall
may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions
of the western coast of Mexico today before subsiding on Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-22 08:56

WTPZ25 KNHC 220854
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 111.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 111.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.7N 111.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 111.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-22 05:44

WTPZ35 KNHC 220541 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1200 AM MDT SUN SEP 22 2019

...POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF LORENA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 111.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...28 KM W OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH (16 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF LORENA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY A MOTION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.

>

2019-09-22 05:43

WTPZ35 KNHC 220541
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1200 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF LORENA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 111.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...28 KM W OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
should monitor the progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 111.1 West. Lorena is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (16 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours.
On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to cross
the coast of mainland Mexico during the next couple of hours,
followed by a motion across northwestern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall.
After landfall, Lorena is expected to rapidly weaken, and the system
is forecast to dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning,
if not sooner.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are likely occurring in the
tropical storm warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over central Sonora, and additional rainfall of less
than one inch over Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall
may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions
of the western coast of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-22 03:46

WTPN33 PHNC 220400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 019
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 27.1N 111.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.1N 111.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 29.0N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 30.9N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
220400Z POSITION NEAR 27.7N 111.3W.
22SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z AND 222200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-22 02:40

WTPZ45 KNHC 220236 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
900 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

RECENT SSMI/S AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES HELPED LOCATE THE
CENTER OF LORENA, WHICH WAS HIDDEN UNDER A BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS,
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SOUTHWEST OF GUYMAS. THE SYSTEM WAS
DEVOID OF CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, A NEW BURST OF
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE
IS LITTLE DATA NEAR THE CENTRAL CORE, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 40 KT BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
LORENA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT LORENA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE JUST
WEST OF DUE NORTH OR 355/10 KT. A GENERAL NORTHWARD OR PERHAPS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES, AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. LORENA MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING IN SONORA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LORENA MAY ALSO RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF ARIZONA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA ON MONDAY.

2. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 27.6N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

>

2019-09-22 02:39

WTPZ35 KNHC 220236 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
900 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

...CENTER OF LORENA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 111.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF LORENA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, FOLLOWED BY
A MOTION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.

>

2019-09-22 02:39

WTPZ25 KNHC 220236
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 111.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 111.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.9N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 111.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-22 02:38

WTPZ45 KNHC 220236
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Recent SSMI/S and WindSat microwave overpasses helped locate the
center of Lorena, which was hidden under a band of cirrus clouds,
over the Gulf of California southwest of Guymas. The system was
devoid of convection for several hours. However, a new burst of
convection has recently formed just northeast of the center. There
is little data near the central core, so the initial intensity is
set at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory.
Lorena should make landfall over northwestern Mexico during the
next several hours, then rapidly weaken over the mountainous
terrain and dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning.

The microwave data indicate that Lorena is continuing to move just
west of due north or 355/10 kt. A general northward or perhaps
north-northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone
dissipates, and the new forecast track is changed little from the
previous advisory track.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena may produce dangerous flash flooding in Sonora Saturday
night and Sunday. Moisture associated with Lorena may also result in
locally heavy rain over parts of Arizona early in the week. There is
a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over central Arizona on Monday.

2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over
portions of the tropical storm warning area during the next several
hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 27.6N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/0000Z 30.9N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-22 02:38

WTPZ35 KNHC 220236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...CENTER OF LORENA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 111.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
should monitor the progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 111.2 West. Lorena is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to cross the
coast of mainland Mexico during the next several hours, followed by
a motion across northwestern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is likely before landfall. After
landfall, Lorena is expected to weaken, and the system is forecast
to dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico during the
next several hours.

RAINFALL: Rainfall: Lorena is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over central Sonora, and additional
rainfall of less than one inch over Baja California Sur through
Sunday. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash floods
in Sonora.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions
of the western coast of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-21 23:42

WTPZ35 KNHC 212340 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
600 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

...LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 111.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF MULEGE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 11 MPH (18 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF LORENA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, AND

>

2019-09-21 23:41

WTPZ35 KNHC 212340
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
600 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 111.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF MULEGE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
should monitor the progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 111.0 West. Lorena is
moving toward the north near 11 mph (18 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 36 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to continue
moving across the Gulf of California for the next 6 to 12 hours, and
then cross the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Lorena is expected to reach the coast as a tropical storm early
Sunday, but rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to
the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward
across the Gulf of California this evening and reach the tropical
storm warning area later tonight.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Sunday night:

Sonora...3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches.
East coast of Baja California Sur and Northwest Sinaloa...additional
1 to 3 inches.

This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions
of the western coast of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-21 22:00

WTPN33 PHNC 212200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 26.2N 111.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 111.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 28.2N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 30.0N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 32.0N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
212200Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 111.2W.
21SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 503
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220400Z, 221000Z, 221600Z AND 222200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-21 20:51

WTPZ25 KNHC 212047 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

CORRECTED TO ADD STATUS OF REMNANT LOW AT 36 HOURS

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 111.1W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 111.1W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-09-21 20:49

WTPZ45 KNHC 212046 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
300 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

CORRECTED TO ADD STATUS OF REMNANT LOW AT 36 HOURS

THE INNER CORE OF LORENA DID NOT SURVIVE ITS PATH ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THE CYCLONE AND
FOUND THAT LORENA HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
ROSE TO 1002 MB, AND THE PEAK WINDS ARE ONLY 45 KT. THESE WINDS ARE
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS ALSO DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE OCEAN IS QUITE WARM IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, THE
SHEAR IS RAPIDLY INCREASING, AND THIS FACTOR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THE ALREADY BATTERED STORM. HOWEVER, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS
FOR LORENA TO REACH THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 18 HOURS OR SO AS A
TROPICAL STORM. AFTER LANDFALL, RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED, BUT
HEAVY RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

LORENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT, STEERED
BY THE FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST, AND LORENA IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL
DISSIPATION OVER THE SONORAN DESERT.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. LORENA WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS POSSIBLE, THIS WEEKEND IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LORENA IS FORECAST TO BRING A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES LATE

>

2019-09-21 20:49

WTPZ25 KNHC 212047 CCA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

CORRECTED TO ADD STATUS OF REMNANT LOW AT 36 HOURS

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 111.1W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 111.1W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 111.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-21 20:48

WTPZ45 KNHC 212046 CCA
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 18...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Corrected to add status of remnant low at 36 hours

The inner core of Lorena did not survive its path across the high
terrain of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula.
An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigated the cyclone and
found that Lorena has weakened significantly. The central pressure
rose to 1002 mb, and the peak winds are only 45 kt. These winds are
confined to a small area to the north and east of the center. The
cloud pattern has also deteriorated significantly since yesterday.
Although the ocean is quite warm in the Gulf of California, the
shear is rapidly increasing, and this factor should continue to
weaken the already battered storm. However, the NHC forecast calls
for Lorena to reach the coast of northwestern Mexico within
the tropical storm warning area in about 18 hours or so as a
tropical storm. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, but
heavy rains should continue for another day or so.

Lorena is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt, steered
by the flow around the western periphery of a subtropical high.
This flow pattern will persist, and Lorena is anticipated to
continue on this general track for the next day or two until
dissipation over the Sonoran Desert.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash
floods possible, this weekend in parts of northwestern mainland
Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a
chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late
this weekend and early next week.

2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over
portions of the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 26.7N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-21 20:40

WTPZ45 KNHC 212038 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
300 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

THE INNER CORE OF LORENA DID NOT SURVIVE ITS PATH ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THE CYCLONE AND
FOUND THAT LORENA HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
ROSE TO 1002 MB, AND THE PEAK WINDS ARE ONLY 45 KT. THESE WINDS ARE
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS ALSO DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE OCEAN IS QUITE WARM IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, THE
SHEAR IS RAPIDLY INCREASING, AND THIS FACTOR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THE ALREADY BATTERED STORM. HOWEVER, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS
FOR LORENA TO REACH THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 18 HOURS OR SO AS A
TROPICAL STORM. AFTER LANDFALL, RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED, BUT
HEAVY RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

LORENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT, STEERED
BY THE FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST, AND LORENA IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL
DISSIPATION OVER THE SONORAN DESERT.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. LORENA WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS POSSIBLE, THIS WEEKEND IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LORENA IS FORECAST TO BRING A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

>

2019-09-21 20:40

WTPZ45 KNHC 212038
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

The inner core of Lorena did not survive its path across the high
terrain of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula.
An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigated the cyclone and
found that Lorena has weakened significantly. The central pressure
rose to 1002 mb, and the peak winds are only 45 kt. These winds are
confined to a small area to the north and east of the center. The
cloud pattern has also deteriorated significantly since yesterday.
Although the ocean is quite warm in the Gulf of California, the
shear is rapidly increasing, and this factor should continue to
weaken the already battered storm. However, the NHC forecast calls
for Lorena to reach the coast of northwestern Mexico within
the tropical storm warning area in about 18 hours or so as a
tropical storm. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, but
heavy rains should continue for another day or so.

Lorena is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt, steered
by the flow around the western periphery of a subtropical high.
This flow pattern will persist, and Lorena is anticipated to
continue on this general track for the next day or two until
dissipation over the Sonoran Desert.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash
floods possible, this weekend in parts of northwestern mainland
Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a
chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late
this weekend and early next week.

2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over
portions of the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 26.7N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-21 20:40

WTPZ35 KNHC 212038 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
300 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

...CORE OF LORENA DID NOT SURVIVE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 111.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL

>

2019-09-21 20:40

WTPZ25 KNHC 212037 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 111.1W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 111.1W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

>

2019-09-21 20:39

WTPZ35 KNHC 212038
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...CORE OF LORENA DID NOT SURVIVE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 111.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Baja California peninsula and the Hurricane Watch for
mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
should monitor the progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 111.1 West. Lorena is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 36 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to continue
moving across the Gulf of California for the next 6 to 12 hours, and
then cross the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Lorena is expected to reach the coast as a tropical storm early
Sunday, but rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by the crew of the Air Force
plane was 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward
across the Gulf or California today and reach the tropical storm
warning area by later tonight.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Sunday night:

Sonora...3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches.
East coast of Baja California Sur and Northwest Sinaloa...additional
1 to 3 inches.

This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions
of the western coast of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-21 20:39

WTPZ25 KNHC 212037
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 111.1W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 111.1W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 111.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-21 17:36

WTPZ35 KNHC 211734 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1200 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENROUTE TO CHECK LORENA...

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 110.8W
ABOUT 128 MI...205 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN
EVARISTO.
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS

>

2019-09-21 17:35

WTPZ35 KNHC 211734
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1200 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENROUTE TO CHECK LORENA...

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 110.8W
ABOUT 128 MI...205 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San
Evaristo.
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was
located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 110.8 West. Lorena is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general motion
toward the north is expected during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move across the
Gulf of California today, then approach the northwestern coast of
mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast before the center reaches
the coast of mainland Mexico early Sunday. An Air Force
reconnaissance plane will check Lorena shortly.

Lorena is a small cyclone and the hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward
across the Gulf or California today. Hurricane conditions are
possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the
hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts
around 8 inches.

Sonora...3 to 6 inches.

Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-21 15:44

WTPN33 PHNC 211600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 25.1N 110.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 110.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 27.0N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 29.0N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 31.0N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211600Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 110.7W.
21SEP19. HURRICANE 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 573 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-21 15:02

WTPZ45 KNHC 211459 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
900 AM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

THE CIRCULATION OF LORENA HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS AND MOST
LIKELY THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED. THE CENTER IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY, BUT IT IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR THE AREA OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. BASED ON CONTINUITY AND DVORAK ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THAT A PORTION OF
LORENA'S CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND THAT
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN SINCE
WE DO NOT KNOW HOW MUCH THE INNER CORE WAS DISRUPTED BY LAND. AN AIR
FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE LORENA LATER TODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE
A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF LORENA'S WINDS.

SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE A GOOD CENTER LOCATION, THE INITIAL MOTION IS
UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES
AT 10 KT. THE STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD FORCE
LORENA ON A NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND BRING
THE CENTER OF LORENA TO MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ONCE THE
CENTER MOVES INLAND RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE NHC FORECAST
IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. LORENA WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND IN PARTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND

>

2019-09-21 15:01

WTPZ45 KNHC 211459
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

The circulation of Lorena has been interacting with the high terrain
of the Baja California peninsula for the past 12 hours and most
likely the inner core has been disrupted. The center is very
difficult to locate on conventional imagery, but it is estimated to
be near the area of the deepest convection in the Gulf of
California. Based on continuity and Dvorak estimates, the initial
intensity is kept at 65 kt at this time. Given that a portion of
Lorena's circulation will continue to interact with land and that
the shear is forecast to increase significantly, gradual weakening
is anticipated. However, the intensity forecast is uncertain since
we do not know how much the inner core was disrupted by land. An Air
Force plane will investigate Lorena later today and should provide
a better assessment of Lorena's winds.

Since we do not have a good center location, the initial motion is
uncertain but the best estimate is toward the north or 350 degrees
at 10 kt. The steering currents associated with a subtropical high
over Mexico and an approaching mid-latitude trough should force
Lorena on a northerly track across the Gulf of California, and bring
the center of Lorena to mainland Mexico in about 24 hours. Once the
center moves inland rapid weakening is anticipated. The NHC forecast
is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the
corrected consensus HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash
floods possible this weekend in parts of Baja California and
northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to
bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late
this weekend and early next week.

2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce tropical-storm-force
winds over a portion of the east coast of the Baja California
peninsula today. These conditions are expected to reach portions of
mainland Mexico tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 25.6N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 27.0N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 31.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-21 15:01

WTPZ35 KNHC 211459 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
900 AM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 110.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND REPLACED IT
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN
EVARISTO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO ALSO ADJUSTED THE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR MAINLAND MEXICO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO
LIBERTAD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN
EVARISTO.
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE

>

2019-09-21 15:00

WTPZ35 KNHC 211459
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 110.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warnings for
the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula and replaced it
with a Tropical Storm Warning from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San
Evaristo. The government of Mexico also adjusted the watches and
warnings for mainland Mexico and a Tropical Storm Warning and a
Hurricane Watch are now in effect from Huatabampito to Puerto
Libertad.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San
Evaristo.
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 110.6 West. Lorena is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general motion toward the
north is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track,
the center of Lorena is expected to move over the Gulf of California
today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast before the center
reaches the coast of mainland Mexico early Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward
across the Gulf or California today. Hurricane conditions are
possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the
hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts
around 8 inches.

Sonora...3 to 6 inches.

Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-21 15:00

WTPZ25 KNHC 211457 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND REPLACED IT
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN
EVARISTO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO ALSO ADJUSTED THE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR MAINLAND MEXICO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO
LIBERTAD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN
EVARISTO.
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 110.6W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

>

2019-09-21 14:59

WTPZ25 KNHC 211457
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND REPLACED IT
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN
EVARISTO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO ALSO ADJUSTED THE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR MAINLAND MEXICO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO
LIBERTAD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN
EVARISTO.
* NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 110.6W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 110.6W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 110.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 27.0N 111.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.0N 112.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 110.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



>

2019-09-21 11:44

WTPZ35 KNHC 211141 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
600 AM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA HUGGING THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 110.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNW OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL THE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO LOS BARRILES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA
TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA
KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO BAHIA
KINO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE THROUGH TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

>

2019-09-21 11:43

WTPZ35 KNHC 211141
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
600 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA HUGGING THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 110.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNW OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued all the watches and
warnings for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Los Barriles

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia
to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia
Kino

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan
Bautista
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Bahia
Kino.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through today.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was
estimated near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 110.5 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general motion
toward the north-northwest is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to
move along the east coast of Baja California Sur or over the Gulf of
California today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland
Mexico tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. After
that time, Lorena is forecast to weaken.

Lorena is a small cyclone and hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across
the hurricane warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions
are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the
hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area by tonight.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts
around 8 inches.

Sonora...3 to 6 inches.

Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-21 10:32

WTPN33 PHNC 211000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 016
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 24.2N 110.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 110.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 25.8N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 27.5N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.8N 111.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 29.9N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211000Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 110.4W.
21SEP19. HURRICANE 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 626 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-21 09:00

WTPZ35 KNHC 210857 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
300 AM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 110.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO
LOS BARRILES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
MAINLAND FROM HUATABAMPITO TO BAHIA KINO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO LOS BARRILES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA
KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN

>

2019-09-21 08:59

WTPZ45 KNHC 210857 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
300 AM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

LORENA MADE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SEVERAL HOURS AGO, AND IT HAS NOW MOVED BACK OVER THE
WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AROUND THE TIME LORENA
MADE LANDFALL, AN OBSERVATION NEAR LA VENTANA, MEXICO, REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS JUST BELOW HURRICANE-FORCE AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
986 MB WHEN IT WAS IN THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE. THE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE HAS DEGRADED SOME BECAUSE OF THE LAND
INTERACTION, AND AN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 65 KT
BASED ON THE TAFB DVORAK CLASSIFICATION. AN ASCAT-C PASS CONFIRMED
THAT LORENA IS A COMPACT HURRICANE, WITH ITS TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING ONLY OUT TO 40 N MI FROM THE CENTER.

LORENA HAS BEEN A CHALLENGING SYSTEM TO FORECAST AS THE MODELS HAVE
NOT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON ITS FUTURE TRACK. THE MODELS THIS CYCLE
HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND NOW SHOW A LANDFALL IN MAINLAND
MEXICO TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
TO THE RIGHT TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS, BUT THIS FORECAST STILL LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IF THIS MODEL TREND CONTINUES, ADDITIONAL SHIFTS
TO THE RIGHT MIGHT BE NEEDED. BASED ON THIS CHANGE, THE GOVERNMENT
OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.

THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY TODAY AS IT
REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, BUT A

>

2019-09-21 08:59

WTPZ45 KNHC 210857
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Lorena made landfall over the southeastern portion of Baja
California Sur several hours ago, and it has now moved back over the
warm waters of the Gulf of California. Around the time Lorena
made landfall, an observation near La Ventana, Mexico, reported
sustained winds just below hurricane-force and a minimum pressure of
986 mb when it was in the eye of the hurricane. The satellite
appearance of the cyclone has degraded some because of the land
interaction, and an eye is no longer apparent in geostationary
images. The initial intensity for this advisory is set at 65 kt
based on the TAFB Dvorak classification. An ASCAT-C pass confirmed
that Lorena is a compact hurricane, with its tropical-storm-force
winds extending only out to 40 n mi from the center.

Lorena has been a challenging system to forecast as the models have
not had a good handle on its future track. The models this cycle
have all shifted to the east and now show a landfall in mainland
Mexico tonight or Sunday. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the right to be in better agreement with the latest model
solutions, but this forecast still lies on the western side of the
guidance envelope. If this model trend continues, additional shifts
to the right might be needed. Based on this change, the Government
of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of
northwestern Mexico.

The hurricane is expected to maintain its intensity today as it
remains over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, but a
pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and land interaction
with mainland Mexico should cause a quick weakening on Sunday and
dissipation is likely to occur on Monday. The NHC intensity
forecast is lower than the previous one, but still lies on the high
side of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena will produce heavy
rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible during the next
couple of days in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico.
Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for
heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and
early next week.

2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce hurricane-force winds
over a portion of the southern Baja California today, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. It could also bring hurricane
conditions to portions of mainland Mexico tonight where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 24.6N 110.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 25.8N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 27.5N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 28.8N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 29.9N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-21 08:59

WTPZ25 KNHC 210857 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO
LOS BARRILES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
MAINLAND FROM HUATABAMPITO TO BAHIA KINO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO LOS BARRILES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA
KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
. MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

>

2019-09-21 08:58

WTPZ35 KNHC 210857
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 110.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a
Tropical Storm Warning on Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to
Los Barriles.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
mainland from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino and a Tropical Storm Watch
from Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Los Barriles

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa
Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia
Kino

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro
* Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan
Bautista

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito
* Mainland Mexico north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 110.3 West. Lorena is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general motion toward
the north-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move along
the east coast of Baja California Sur or over the Gulf of California
today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight.
After that time, Lorena is forecast to weaken.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across
the hurricane warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions
are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the
hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area by tonight.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts
around 8 inches.

Sonora...3 to 6 inches.

Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-21 08:58

WTPZ25 KNHC 210857
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO
LOS BARRILES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
MAINLAND FROM HUATABAMPITO TO BAHIA KINO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO LOS BARRILES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
* NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA
KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
* MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.8N 110.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.8N 111.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.9N 112.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 110.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-21 06:00

WTPZ35 KNHC 210557 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1200 AM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NEAR LA VENTANA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 110.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA
KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES
TO CABO SAN LAZARO
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO

>

2019-09-21 05:59

WTPZ35 KNHC 210557
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1200 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NEAR LA VENTANA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 110.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa
Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia
Kino

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes
to Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa
Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena. Additional warnings may be needed for portions of this area
on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorena was located
over land near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 110.1 West. Lorena is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general
motion toward the north-northwest or northwest is expected during
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Lorena is expected to move along the east coast of Baja California
Sur or over the Gulf of California today, then approach the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight.
After that time, Lorena is forecast to weaken.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45
miles (75 km). An automated station in La Ventana, Mexico, recently
reported sustained winds of 69 mph (111 km/h) and a wind gust of 86
mph (139 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
The same automated station in La Ventana reported a minimum pressure
of 991 mb (29.96 in).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across
the hurricane warning area through tonight. Hurricane and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by tonight.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over Baja California Sur and 2 to 4 inches over
western Sonora and far northwest Sinaloa through Sunday. Isolated
maximum amounts around 8 inches are possible in Baja California Sur.
This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-21 04:40

WTPZ65 KNHC 210437
TCUEP5

HURRICANE LORENA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1035 PM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...LORENA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LA VENTANA MEXICO IN SOUTHEASTERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT HURRICANE
LORENA MADE LANDFALL NEAR LA VENTANA, MEXICO, IN THE STATE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AROUND 0400 UTC (10 PM MDT) WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 80
MPH (130 KM/H).

SUMMARY OF 1035 PM MDT...0435 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 110.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-21 03:21

WTPN33 PHNC 210400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 015
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 23.7N 109.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 109.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.0N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 26.6N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 28.1N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 29.4N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 31.5N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
210400Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 109.8W.
21SEP19. HURRICANE 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 673 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211000Z, 211600Z, 212200Z AND 220400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-21 02:59

WTPZ45 KNHC 210256 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
900 PM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

THE EYE OF LORENA PASSED NEAR OR OVER THE CABO PULMO AREA OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA A FEW HOURS AGO AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
JUST OFF OF THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA
PAZ. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED, WITH COLD EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A CLOUD-FILLED
EYE. BASED ON THE LAND INTERACTION THAT HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO A POSSIBLY
CONSERVATIVE 70 KT.

LORENA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK, AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 330/7. THE HURRICANE IS
MOSTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO, AND IT IS MOVING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A
LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS COMBINATION SHOULD STEER LORENA GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT
TO THE RIGHT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. AS A RESULT, THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK HAS ALSO SHIFTED AND NOW CALLS FOR THE CENTER OF LORENA TO
MOVE UP THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THE GFS,
THE OLD VERSION OF THE GFS, AND THE ECMWF ARE ALL TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CURRENT TRACK, WITH THESE MODELS FORECASTING A MORE NORTHWARD
MOTION INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. THUS, ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST TRACK MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND

>

2019-09-21 02:59

WTPZ35 KNHC 210256 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
900 PM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
DEL SUR...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 109.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA
ROSALIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA
KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES

>

2019-09-21 02:58

WTPZ45 KNHC 210256
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

The eye of Lorena passed near or over the Cabo Pulmo area of the
Baja California peninsula a few hours ago and is currently located
just off of the east coast of the peninsula east-southeast of La
Paz. Satellite imagery indicates that the hurricane remains well
organized, with cold eyewall cloud tops surrounding a cloud-filled
eye. Based on the land interaction that has occurred since the last
advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly
conservative 70 kt.

Lorena has continued to move to the right of the previous forecast
track, and the initial motion is now 330/7. The hurricane is
mostly being steered by a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern
Mexico, and it is moving toward a break in the ridge caused by a
large mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States.
This combination should steer Lorena generally north-northwestward
for the next 2-3 days. The track guidance has continued to shift
to the right since the last advisory. As a result, the new forecast
track has also shifted and now calls for the center of Lorena to
move up the length of the Gulf of California. However, the GFS,
the old version of the GFS, and the ECMWF are all to the right of
the current track, with these models forecasting a more northward
motion into mainland Mexico. Thus, additional adjustments to the
forecast track may be required on subsequent advisories. The new
forecast track requires significant changes to the watches and
warnings for the Baja California peninsula and northwestern mainland
Mexico.

Lorena should spend another 24-36 h over the warm waters of the
Gulf of California in light to moderate shear conditions. The
intensity guidance does not show much strengthening during this
time, and the official forecast follows the guidance. However, it
would not be a surprise if Lorena strengthened a little given the
current structure. After that, the cyclone should encounter
strong shear which would likely cause steady to even rapid
weakening, and the intensity forecast has the system weakening to a
remnant low as it reaches the northern end of the Gulf of
California. If the cyclone makes an earlier landfall in mainland
Mexico, it will likely dissipate faster than currently forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena will produce heavy
rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible this weekend in
parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Moisture associated
with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the
southwest United States from late this weekend into early next week.

2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of
the southern Baja California peninsula through tonight, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. It could also bring hurricane
conditions to portions of mainland Mexico where a Hurricane Watch
has been issued.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 24.0N 109.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 25.0N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 26.6N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 28.1N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 29.4N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 31.5N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-21 02:57

WTPZ35 KNHC 210256
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
DEL SUR...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 109.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
east coast of the Baja California Peninsula from La Paz to Santa
Rosalia.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a
Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of the Baja California
Peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Altata to Bahia Kino.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa
Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia
Kino

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes
to Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa
Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena. Additional warnings may be needed for portions of this area
on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 109.7 West. Lorena is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general motion
toward the north-northwest or northwest is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is
expected to move over the Gulf of California near the east coast of
the Baja California Peninsula through Saturday, then approach the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday
night. After that, Lorena is forecast to weaken.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km). An automated station in La Ventana, Mexico, recently
reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of
54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread across the
hurricane warning area tonight through Saturday night. Hurricane
and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane
watch area by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area Saturday
and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches over Baja California Sur and 2 to 4 inches over western
Sonora and far northwest Sinaloa through Sunday. Isolated maximum
amounts around 8 inches are possible in Baja California Sur. This
rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-21 02:57

WTPZ25 KNHC 210255 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA
ROSALIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA
KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES
TO CABO SAN LAZARO
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

>

2019-09-21 02:57

WTPZ25 KNHC 210255
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA
ROSALIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
* NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA
KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES
TO CABO SAN LAZARO
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 109.7W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 109.7W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 26.6N 111.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.1N 112.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.4N 112.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 31.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 109.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-20 23:46

WTPZ35 KNHC 202344 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
600 PM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 109.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...95 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SANTA ROSALIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES
TO CABO SAN LAZARO
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SANTA ROSALIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
. MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

>

2019-09-20 23:46

WTPZ35 KNHC 202344
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
600 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 109.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...95 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
Santa Rosalia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes
to Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
Santa Rosalia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Guaymas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena. Additional warnings may be needed for portions
of this area later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 109.5 West. Lorena is now
moving toward the northwest at about 5 mph (8 km/h). On the
forecast track, the core of the hurricane should move over or near
the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours if Lorena
moves inland. If the hurricane moves over the Gulf of California,
it could strengthen instead.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45
miles (75 km).

The estimated central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula during
the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by
Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across Baja
California Sur through the weekend. This rainfall may result in
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-20 21:47

WTPN33 PHNC 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 23.0N 109.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 00 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 109.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.9N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 25.5N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 27.0N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.5N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 30.0N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
202200Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 109.7W.
20SEP19. HURRICANE 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 714 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 00 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210400Z, 211000Z, 211600Z AND 212200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-20 21:04

WTPZ45 KNHC 202102 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
300 PM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS ADVISORY. FIRST, LORENA
HAS DEVELOPED AND EYE, AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 75 KT.
HOWEVER, THESE WINDS ARE OCCURING WITHIN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER.

MORE IMPORTANTLY, THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK
MODELS, AND THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS A WHOLE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DEEPENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD. CONSEQUENTLY, THE NHC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH WAS
PREVIOUSLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA AND THEN OVER
WATERS TO THE WEST, IS NOW ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA. THIS
SOLUTION SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AS THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH
THE HIGH TERRAIN. HOWEVER, IF ANOTHER SMALL SHIFT TO THE RIGHT
OCCURS, THE HURRICANE WILL BE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND COULD REMAIN STRONG OR EVEN INTENSIFY. GIVEN THAT
ANOTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IS POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY SOME GLOBAL
MODELS, THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE AREA OF WATCHES
AND WARNINGS NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE MAINLAND
MEXICAN COAST.

FOR NOW, THE NHC FORECAST, WHICH IN FACT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, BRINGS
LORENA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 7 OR 8 KT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BY THEN LORENA IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, AND
AFTER THAT TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER THE

>

2019-09-20 21:03

WTPZ45 KNHC 202102
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

There have been significant changes in this advisory. First, Lorena
has developed and eye, and data from an Air Force reconnaissance
plane indicate that the initial intensity has increased to 75 kt.
However, these winds are occuring within a small area near the
center.

More importantly, there has been a significant change in the track
models, and the guidance envelope as a whole has shifted eastward
as a mid-level trough over the western United States deepens and
shifts eastward. Consequently, the NHC forecast track, which was
previously over the southern portion of the peninsula and then over
waters to the west, is now along the spine of the peninsula. This
solution should result in weakening as the hurricane interacts with
the high terrain. However, if another small shift to the right
occurs, the hurricane will be over the warm waters of the Gulf of
California and could remain strong or even intensify. Given that
another eastward shift is possible as indicated by some global
models, the government of Mexico has extended the area of watches
and warnings northward along the east coast of the Baja California
peninsula and has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the mainland
Mexican coast.

For now, the NHC forecast, which in fact is highly uncertain, brings
Lorena toward the northwest about 7 or 8 kt during the next couple
of days. By then Lorena is expected to be a tropical depression, and
after that time it is expected to become a remnant low over the
peninsula. However, be ready for another shift to the right or to
to the left, depending on the new track guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena is expected to bring
heavy rainfall to the southern Baja California Sur tonight into
Saturday, with flash flooding possible.

2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of
the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 23.2N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 23.9N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 27.0N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 30.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-20 21:03

WTPZ35 KNHC 202101 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
300 PM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA ALREADY HUGGING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 109.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM OF SAN EVARISTO TO SANTA ROSALIA, AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS.

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SANTA ROSALIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES
TO CABO SAN LAZARO
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SANTA ROSALIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
. MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

>

2019-09-20 21:02

WTPZ35 KNHC 202101
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA ALREADY HUGGING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 109.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a
Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula
from of San Evaristo to Santa Rosalia, and has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Guaymas.

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
Santa Rosalia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes
to Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
Santa Rosalia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Guaymas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 109.3 West. Lorena has been
moving little during the past few hours, but the hurricane should
begin a northwesterly track tonight. On this track, the core of
the hurricane should move along the spine of the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours if Lorena moves inland. If the hurricane moves over the
Gulf of California, it could strengthen instead.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance
plane was 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula during
the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by
Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across Baja
California Sur through the weekend. This rainfall may result in
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-20 21:02

WTPZ25 KNHC 202059 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM OF SAN EVARISTO TO SANTA ROSALIA...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS.

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SANTA ROSALIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES
TO CABO SAN LAZARO
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SANTA ROSALIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
. MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

>

2019-09-20 21:01

WTPZ25 KNHC 202059
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM OF SAN EVARISTO TO SANTA ROSALIA...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS.

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SANTA ROSALIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES
TO CABO SAN LAZARO
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SANTA ROSALIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 109.3W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 109.3W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.9N 110.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.0N 112.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 109.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-20 18:17

WTPZ35 KNHC 201813 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1200 PM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

CORRECTED INITIAL LATITUDE

...HURRICANE LORENA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 109.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

>

2019-09-20 18:16

WTPZ35 KNHC 201813 CCA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 13A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

corrected initial latitude

...HURRICANE LORENA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 109.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San
Evaristo to Loreto
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 109.4 West. Lorena is
now moving toward the west near 6 mph (10 km/h), and a turn toward
the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected
later today and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Lorena will move near or over the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula later today, and then gradually move away from
the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but
weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and Lorena will then
either degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical
Storm Mario in a couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula during
the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by
Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across southern
Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-20 17:40

WTPZ35 KNHC 201738 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1200 PM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9 109.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

>

2019-09-20 17:39

WTPZ35 KNHC 201738
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9 109.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San
Evaristo to Loreto
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 109.4 West. Lorena is
now moving toward the west near 6 mph (10 km/h), and a turn toward
the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected
later today and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Lorena will move near or over the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula later today, and then gradually move away from
the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but
weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and Lorena will
then either degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by
Tropical Storm Mario in a couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula during
the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by
Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across southern
Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-20 15:43

WTPN33 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 013
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 22.6N 108.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 108.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.8N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.3N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.7N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.4N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.5N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 109.3W.
20SEP19. HURRICANE 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 746 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-20 14:55

WTPZ45 KNHC 201452 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
900 AM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

MICROWAVE DATA OVERNIGHT SHOWED THAT AN EYE FEATURE WAS TRYING
TO FORM, AND THIS FEATURE BECAME REALLY DISTINCT ON THE 1059 UTC
SSMIS IMAGE. A HINT OF AN EYE IS BECOMING APPARENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES
AT THIS TIME. AN AVERAGE OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS
YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT.

LORENA IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS, AND THIS COULD HELP THE
CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE THE
CYCLONE IS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. AFTER THAT TIME, ONCE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COOLER
WATERS JUST WEST OF THE PENINSULA, WEAKENING SHOULD THE BEGIN. IN
ADDITION, THE CHANCES OF LORENA BECOMING ABSORBED BY TROPICAL STORM
MARIO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS HAVE INCREASED AS INDICATED BY SOME GLOBAL
MODELS. REGARDLESS OF THE POSSIBLE INTERACTION SCENARIO, DISSIPATION
OF LORENA WILL OCCUR IN LESS THAN 4 DAYS.

LORENA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT
2 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER MEXICO, AND THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO TO
THE SOUTH. LORENA SHOULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AROUND THE RIDGE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS TURN SHOULD OCCUR WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IS IN BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FAR SOUTHERN

>

2019-09-20 14:55

WTPZ35 KNHC 201452 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
900 AM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA CRAWLING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 109.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS

>

2019-09-20 14:54

WTPZ25 KNHC 201451 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE

>

2019-09-20 14:53

WTPZ45 KNHC 201452
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Microwave data overnight showed that an eye feature was trying
to form, and this feature became really distinct on the 1059 UTC
SSMIS image. A hint of an eye is becoming apparent on visible images
at this time. An average of subjective and objective T-numbers
yields an initial intensity of 65 kt.

Lorena is moving over very warm waters, and this could help the
cyclone to strengthen some during the next 12 hours while the
cyclone is near or over the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula. After that time, once the cyclone reaches the cooler
waters just west of the peninsula, weakening should the begin. In
addition, the chances of Lorena becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm
Mario in about 48 hours have increased as indicated by some global
models. Regardless of the possible interaction scenario, dissipation
of Lorena will occur in less than 4 days.

Lorena has been moving very slowly toward the west or 280 degrees at
2 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around a subtropical
ridge over Mexico, and the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario to
the south. Lorena should turn a little more to the west-northwest
around the ridge with some increase in forward speed. Most of the
track guidance indicate that this turn should occur well to the west
of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is a little bit
to the right of the previous one, and is in between the multi-model
consensus and the corrected consensus HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern
Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding
possible.

2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of
the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 22.7N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 22.8N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 23.3N 111.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 23.7N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 24.4N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-20 14:53

WTPZ35 KNHC 201452
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA CRAWLING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 109.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
from Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San
Evaristo to Loreto
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Lorena is moving
toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected on
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will pass
near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
later today, and then gradually move away from the west coast of the
peninsula tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but
weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and then either
degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical Storm
Mario in a couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula later today,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by this morning.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across the far
southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-20 14:52

WTPZ25 KNHC 201451
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 108.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.8N 110.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 23.3N 111.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.7N 112.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.4N 113.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 109.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



>

2019-09-20 11:44

WTPZ35 KNHC 201142 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
600 AM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...CORE OF HURRICANE LORENA APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 109.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO
CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

>

2019-09-20 11:43

WTPZ35 KNHC 201142
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
600 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...CORE OF HURRICANE LORENA APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 109.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San
Evaristo to Loreto
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto
Cortes to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required
for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Lorena is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward
the northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Lorena will pass near or over the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula later today and then gradually move away
from the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is possible during the next day or
so. Weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and then either
degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical Storm
Mario in a few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula later today,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by this morning.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across the far
southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-20 09:45

WTPN33 PHNC 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 22.2N 108.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 108.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.5N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.7N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.1N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 24.1N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.4N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
201000Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 108.7W.
20SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 788
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND
211000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-20 09:31

WTPZ65 KNHC 200929
TCUEP5

HURRICANE LORENA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
300 AM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE...

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT LORENA HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH
(120 KM/H).

SUMMARY OF 330 AM MDT...0930 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 108.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-20 08:46

WTPZ45 KNHC 200844 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
300 AM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

A SERIES OF METOP-B MICROWAVE COMPOSITE IMAGES REVEAL AN IMPROVED
INNER CORE THIS MORNING WITH A DISTINCT BANDING EYE FEATURE AND
DEVELOPING OUTER BANDS IN THE EAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. LORENA
IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT
IS A COMPROMISE OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, AND A SATCON ANALYSIS OF 57 KT.

LORENA IS EXPECTED TO RE-GAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH VERY SOON AS IT
PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE THE
CYCLONE TRAVERSES MUCH COOLER OCEANIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BEYOND THE 36-HOUR PERIOD. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS, HOWEVER, THE CHANCES OF THE CYCLONE
INTERACTING AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY TROPICAL STORM MARIO IN 48
HOURS OR SO HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. REGARDLESS OF THE
POSSIBLE INTERACTION SCENARIO, DISSIPATION OF LORENA WILL OCCUR IN
LESS THAN 4 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290/8
KT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND LARGER TROPICAL STORM
MARIO TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
NORTHWEST OF LORENA, APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH THE
INTERACTION WITH MARIO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, AND HAS SHIFTED
CONSIDERABLY TOWARD THE WEST AWAY FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

>

2019-09-20 08:46

WTPZ45 KNHC 200844
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

A series of METOP-B microwave composite images reveal an improved
inner core this morning with a distinct banding eye feature and
developing outer bands in the east portion of the cyclone. Lorena
is close to hurricane strength, and the initial intensity of 60 kt
is a compromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates, and a SATCON analysis of 57 kt.

Lorena is expected to re-gain hurricane strength very soon as it
passes near or over the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some further intensification is forecast before the
cyclone traverses much cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures
beyond the 36-hour period. Lorena is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low in 3 days, however, the chances of the cyclone
interacting and becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in 48
hours or so have increased significantly. Regardless of the
possible interaction scenario, dissipation of Lorena will occur in
less than 4 days.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/8
kt. The cyclone is currently situated between a mid- to upper-level
tropospheric ridge over northern Mexico and larger Tropical Storm
Mario to the southwest, while a high amplitude shortwave trough,
northwest of Lorena, approaches the west coast of the United States.
The global and regional guidance has become more aligned with the
interaction with Mario in a couple of days, and has shifted
considerably toward the west away from the Baja California
peninsula. Subsequently, a major shift of the official forecast has
been made to the left of the previous forecast, but the NHC track
still lies well to the east of the various multi-model consensus
models. At this point, only the legacy GFS global model fails to
show binary interaction with Mario.

Wind radii adjustments were made based on 0334 UTC scatterometer
data.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern
Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding
possible.

2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of
the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 22.3N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 22.7N 110.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 23.1N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 24.1N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 26.4N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED BY MARIO

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-20 08:44

WTPZ35 KNHC 200842 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
300 AM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...LORENA MAKES EXPECTED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 108.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO
CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

>

2019-09-20 08:44

WTPZ25 KNHC 200842 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO
CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 108.5W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

>

2019-09-20 08:43

WTPZ35 KNHC 200842
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...LORENA MAKES EXPECTED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 108.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San
Evaristo to Loreto
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto
Cortes to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required
for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 108.5 West. Lorena is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Lorena will pass near or over the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and then
gradually move away from the west coast of the peninsula tonight and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength today as it
approaches the Baja California peninsula. Lorena is likely to begin
weakening by Saturday night, and then either degenerate into a
remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in
a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula later today,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by this morning.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across the far
southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-20 08:43

WTPZ25 KNHC 200842
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO
CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 108.5W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 108.5W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 108.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.7N 110.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.1N 112.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.1N 113.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.4N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED BY MARIO

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 108.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-20 05:40

WTPZ35 KNHC 200537 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1200 AM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...LORENA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 108.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO
CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

>

2019-09-20 05:38

WTPZ35 KNHC 200537
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1200 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...LORENA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 108.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San
Evaristo to Loreto
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto
Cortes to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required
for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 108.3 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later this
morning and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Lorena will pass near or over the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and then
move along the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength by tonight as it
approaches the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula later today,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by this morning.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend:

Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and
Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts around 6 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-20 04:21

WTPN33 PHNC 200400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 107.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 107.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.6N 108.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.1N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.9N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.8N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.5N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 29.5N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200400Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 107.8W.
20SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 827
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-20 02:44

WTPZ45 KNHC 200241 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
900 PM MDT THU SEP 19 2019

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE DATA AND A RECENTLY RECEIVED SSM/IS OVERPASS
SUGGEST THAT LORENA HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY, WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMING NEAR OR OVER A
SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE SEEN IN THE MICROWAVE DATA. HOWEVER, THE
VARIOUS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS NOT YET REGAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS HELD AT 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/9. LORENA IS
LOCATED BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND TROPICAL STORM MARIO TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, WHILE A LARGE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF LORENA OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LORENA TO INTERACT WITH MARIO IS PRODUCING A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE AND A LOW CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST. MUCH OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE GFS, HWRF, HMON, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SHOW LORENA TURNING SO SHARPLY WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
MARIO THAT IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT
THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE OLDER VERSION OF THE GFS, WHICH FORECASTS
LORENA TO MOVED NORTHWESTWARD UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DUE MAINLY
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MEXICAN RIDGE AND THE U. S. TROUGH. THE
ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS A TRACK GENERALLY OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA, WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS A TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA. THE

>

2019-09-20 02:43

WTPZ35 KNHC 200240 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
900 PM MDT THU SEP 19 2019

...LORENA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO
CORTES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO
LORETO, AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF
PUERTO CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO

>

2019-09-20 02:43

WTPZ25 KNHC 200240 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO
CORTES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO
LORETO...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF
PUERTO CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO
CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

>

2019-09-20 02:42

WTPZ45 KNHC 200241
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Geostationary satellite data and a recently received SSM/IS overpass
suggest that Lorena has gotten a little better organized since the
last advisory, with a central dense overcast forming near or over a
small mid-level eye seen in the microwave data. However, the
various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates
indicate that the cyclone has not yet regained hurricane strength.
The initial intensity is thus held at 60 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/9. Lorena is
located between a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern Mexico
and Tropical Storm Mario to the south-southwest, while a large
mid- to upper-level trough is northwest of Lorena over the western
United States and the northeastern Pacific. The potential for
Lorena to interact with Mario is producing a large spread in the
guidance and a low confidence track forecast. Much of the track
guidance, including the GFS, HWRF, HMON, and the GFS ensemble mean
show Lorena turning so sharply westward around the north side of
Mario that it passes south of the Baja California peninsula. At
the other extreme is the older version of the GFS, which forecasts
Lorena to moved northwestward up the Gulf of California due mainly
to the influence of the Mexican ridge and the U. S. trough. The
ECMWF model forecasts a track generally over the Baja California
peninsula, while the UKMET shows a track into the southern Gulf of
California followed by a westward turn across southern Baja. The
new forecast track is similar to the previous track in forecasting
Lorena to pass near the southern end of the Baja California
peninsula, then move generally northwestward near the west coast of
the peninsula. The new track lies well to the right of the various
consensus models, but it lies to the left of the ECWMF and the old
GFS model. Adjustments to the forecast track may occur once the
amount of influence Mario will have on Lorena become more apparent.

The intensity forecast is also very uncertain due to the track
forecast uncertainties. The new intensity forecast is based on the
track forecast that keeps Lorena over the water near the west coast
of the the Baja California peninsula, with the cyclone re-gaining
hurricane status before it moves over colder sea surface
temperatures and eventually dissipates over the cold water.
However there are three alternate scenarios. First, the GFS
suggests the possibility that Mario will absorb Lorena and cause it
to completely dissipate. Second, the older version of the GFS, with
its forecast over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, would
could allow Lorena to be stronger than currently forecast. Finally,
the ECMWF's track over the Baja California Peninsula would also
cause Lorena to weaken faster than currently forecast.

The forecast track requires new warnings and watches for portions
of Baja California del Sur. Additional warnings and watches may be
required for this area on Friday.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states
of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Lorena is forecast to re-strengthen into a hurricane and bring
hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall to a portion of the
southern Baja California peninsula beginning on Friday. A Hurricane
Warning has been issued, and preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 22.3N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 22.6N 108.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 23.1N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 23.9N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 27.5N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 29.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-20 02:42

WTPZ35 KNHC 200240
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...LORENA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
west coast of Baja California del Sur north of Santa Fe to Puerto
Cortes.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
east coast of Baja California del Sur north of San Evaristo to
Loreto, and for the west coast of Baja California del Sur north of
Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito.

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Punta Mita.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San
Evaristo to Loreto
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto
Cortes to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required
for portions of this area on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 107.7 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight, and
this motion should continue through Friday night. A turn toward
the northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the southeast
of the Baja California peninsula tonight, pass near or over the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday, and
move along the west coast of the peninsula Friday night and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength as it approaches
the Baja California peninsula on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula on Friday,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by Friday morning.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend:

Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and
Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts around 6 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-20 02:42

WTPZ25 KNHC 200240
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO
CORTES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO
LORETO...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF
PUERTO CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO
CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 107.7W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 60SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 107.7W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.6N 108.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.1N 110.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 23.9N 111.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 27.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 107.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-19 23:33

WTPZ35 KNHC 192331 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
600 PM MDT THU SEP 19 2019

...CENTER OF LORENA NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAS MARIAS...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 107.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA FE TO
PUERTO CORTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE

>

2019-09-19 23:32

WTPZ35 KNHC 192331
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
600 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...CENTER OF LORENA NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAS MARIAS...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 107.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Fe to
Puerto Cortes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required
for portions of this area later tonight or Friday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 107.3 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion
at a slower forward speed should continue through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific
waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula tonight,
pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula on Friday, and move along the west coast of the peninsula
Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength as it approaches
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for a few
more hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula on Friday,
with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Hurricane
and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane
watch area by Saturday.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend:

Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and
Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts around 6 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-19 22:19

WTPN33 PHNC 192200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 21.4N 106.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 106.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.4N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.8N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.5N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.4N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.0N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 29.0N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
192200Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 107.2W.
19SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 876
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-19 20:40

WTPZ45 KNHC 192037 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
300 PM MDT THU SEP 19 2019

THE CENTER AND STRUCTURE OF LORENA WAS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE THIS MORNING AFTER THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTERACTED WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
THE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE LORENA HAD MECHANICAL
ISSUES AND WAS UNABLE TO COMPLETE ITS MISSION. THANKFULLY, A
FORTUITOUS GMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS AROUND 1800 UTC AND MORE RECENT
ASCAT DATA HAS PROVIDED SOME CLARITY ON THE LOCATION AND STRUCTURE
OF THE CYCLONE. ACCORDING TO THAT DATA, THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAS MARIAS, AND THE ASCAT REVEALED PEAK WINDS OF
45-50 KT. GIVEN THE TYPICAL UNDERSAMPLING OF THE ASCAT FOR IN
SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT,
WHICH IS BETWEEN THE PEAK SCATTEROMETER WINDS AND THE HIGHER
SATELLITE ESTIMATES. SINCE THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE
INNER CORE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT INTACT, SOME STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WARM WATER AND REMAINS
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AS A
RESULT, LORENA IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. AFTER THAT TIME, INTERACTION
WITH LAND IS LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME DECREASE IN WIND SPEED.

LORENA HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER THAN EXPECTED, AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 315/11 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST AND
TROPICAL STORM MARIO TO THE SOUTHWEST. IF LORENA REMAINS SEPARATED

>

2019-09-19 20:39

WTPZ45 KNHC 192037
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

The center and structure of Lorena was extremely difficult to
determine this morning after the core of the tropical cyclone
interacted with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico.
The aircraft that was scheduled to investigate Lorena had mechanical
issues and was unable to complete its mission. Thankfully, a
fortuitous GMI microwave overpass around 1800 UTC and more recent
ASCAT data has provided some clarity on the location and structure
of the cyclone. According to that data, the center is located just
southwest of the Islas Marias, and the ASCAT revealed peak winds of
45-50 kt. Given the typical undersampling of the ASCAT for in
small tropical cyclones, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt,
which is between the peak scatterometer winds and the higher
satellite estimates. Since the microwave data suggests that the
inner core appears to be somewhat intact, some strengthening is
expected while the cyclone moves over warm water and remains
in a low shear environment during the next 24 hours or so. As a
result, Lorena is forecast to be a hurricane when it pass near or
over the southern Baja peninsula. After that time, interaction
with land is likely to cause some decrease in wind speed.

Lorena has been moving faster than expected, and the initial motion
estimate is 315/11 kt. The cyclone should turn west-northwestward
tonight as it moves between a mid-level ridge to its northeast and
Tropical Storm Mario to the southwest. If Lorena remains separated
from Mario (as shown by the latest ECMWF), a turn back toward the
northwest is expected as the storm moves around the southwestern
portion of the ridge. The new NHC track forecast lies between the
HFIP corrected consensus model and the latest ECMWF.

Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the
exact track and intensity of Lorena, the government of Mexico has
issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the southern Baja
California peninsula.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states
of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue along a
portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this evening.

3. Lorena is forecast to re-strengthen into a hurricane and bring
hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall to a portion of the
southern Baja California peninsula beginning on Friday. A Hurricane
Warning has been issued, and preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 21.6N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 22.4N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 22.8N 109.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 23.5N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 24.4N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 27.0N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 29.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-19 20:38

WTPZ35 KNHC 192036 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
300 PM MDT THU SEP 19 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ISLAS MARIAS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 107.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ
TO SAN EVARISTO, AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO CORTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA FE TO
PUERTO CORTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED

>

2019-09-19 20:38

WTPZ35 KNHC 192036
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ISLAS MARIAS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 107.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch along the
east coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of La Paz
to San Evaristo, and along the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula from north of Santa Fe to Puerto Cortes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Fe to
Puerto Cortes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 107.0 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion
at a slower forward speed should continue through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific
waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula tonight,
pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula on Friday, and move along the west coast of the peninsula
Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength as it approaches
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. A Mexican navy automated station on Isla Maria
Madre island recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (73 km/h)
and a wind gust of 65 mph (105 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico through this
evening. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula on Friday,
with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Hurricane
and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane
watch area by Saturday.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend:

Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and
Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts around 6 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-19 20:38

WTPZ25 KNHC 192035 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ
TO SAN EVARISTO...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO CORTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA FE TO
PUERTO CORTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE

>

2019-09-19 20:37

WTPZ25 KNHC 192035
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ
TO SAN EVARISTO...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO CORTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA FE TO
PUERTO CORTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 107.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 60SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 107.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.4N 108.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.8N 109.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.5N 111.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.4N 112.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.0N 114.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 107.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-19 17:49

WTPZ35 KNHC 191746 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
100 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

...CENTER OF LORENA MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 106.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

>

2019-09-19 17:48

WTPZ35 KNHC 191746
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
100 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...CENTER OF LORENA MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 106.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Punta Mita
* Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 106.5 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion
at a slower forward speed should continue on Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific
waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula today and
tonight, and then pass near or or just south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula late Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength within the next
day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico through this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on
Friday within the tropical storm warning area in Baja California
Sur. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southern Baja
California peninsula within the watch area as early as Friday night
or Saturday.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend:

Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and
Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts around 6 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-19 15:25

WTPN33 PHNC 191600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 009
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 15E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 105.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 105.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.2N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.7N 108.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.2N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.7N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.8N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.8N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.8N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
191600Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 105.9W.
19SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 974 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

>

2019-09-19 14:52

WTPZ45 KNHC 191450 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF LORENA
MOVED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING. MORE RECENT 1-MINUTE GOES-17 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER HAS NOW MOVED OFFSHORE JUST WEST OF CABO
CORRIENTES. ASSUMING THAT SOME WEAKENING OCCURRED WHILE THE CORE
INTERACTED WITH LAND, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO
60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF
THE SAB AND TAFB SATELLITE ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH THE INNER CORE HAS
LIKELY BEEN DISRUPTED, THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE SUGGESTS
LORENA REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH EXCELLENT BANDING AND VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS OVER THE CENTER. LORENA WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM
WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE.
THEREFORE, RE-STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THIS FOREAST COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE IF THE
INNER CORE HAS REMAINED MORE INTACT THAT CURRENTLY THOUGHT. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
LORENA THIS AFTERNOON, AND THIS DATA SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER
ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.

RECENT SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES SHOW THAT LORENA IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/9 KT. A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER TODAY WHILE LORENA MOVES BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE

>

2019-09-19 14:52

WTPZ35 KNHC 191449 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

...CENTER OF LORENA MOVES OFFSHORE JUST WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES...
...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 105.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

>

2019-09-19 14:51

WTPZ45 KNHC 191450
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Microwave and satellite imagery indicated that the center of Lorena
moved along the southwestern coast of Mexico overnight and this
morning. More recent 1-minute GOES-17 visible satellite imagery
suggests that the center has now moved offshore just west of Cabo
Corrientes. Assuming that some weakening occurred while the core
interacted with land, the initial intensity has been reduced to
60 kt for this advisory. This is in agreement with an average of
the SAB and TAFB satellite estimates. Although the inner core has
likely been disrupted, the overall satellite appearance suggests
Lorena remains well organized with excellent banding and very cold
cloud tops over the center. Lorena will be traversing very warm
water to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula and the
upper-level environment is expected to be quite favorable.
Therefore, re-strengthening is anticipated during the next day or
so, and the NHC intensity forecast is closest to the higher
statistical guidance. This foreast could be on the low side if the
inner core has remained more intact that currently thought. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Lorena this afternoon, and this data should provide a better
estimate of the current intensity and structure of the cyclone.

Recent satellite and microwave fixes show that Lorena is moving
northwestward or 320/9 kt. A west-northwesterly motion is expected
to begin later today while Lorena moves between a mid-level ridge
to the north and Tropical Storm Mario to its southwest. This
forecast assumes that Lorena will remain the dominant system if it
interacts with Mario, and will eventually turn northwestward around
the western portion of the ridge. This scenario is favored by most
of the ECMWF ensemble members, and is close the GFS ensemble mean.

Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the
exact track and intensity of Lorena, the government of Mexico has
issued a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for a portion
of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states
of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue along a
portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this afternoon.

3. Lorena is forecast re-strengthen into a hurricane and move very
close to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by
Friday afternoon, and could bring hurricane conditions to the area.
A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been issued,
and residents should heed the advice of local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 20.5N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 22.2N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 22.7N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 24.8N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 26.8N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 28.8N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-19 14:51

WTPZ35 KNHC 191449
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...CENTER OF LORENA MOVES OFFSHORE JUST WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES...
...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 105.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos.

The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning from
Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Punta Mita
* Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion
at a slow forward speed should continue Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the
southeast of the Baja California peninsula today and tonight, and
then pass near or or just south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula late Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength later today or
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico through this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on
Friday within the tropical storm warning area in Baja California
Sur. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southern Baja
California peninsula within the watch area as early as Friday night
or Saturday.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend:

Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and
Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts around 6 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-19 14:51

WTPZ25 KNHC 191449 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 105.9W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 40SE 70SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

>

2019-09-19 14:50

WTPZ25 KNHC 191449
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 105.9W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 40SE 70SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 105.9W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 10NE 20SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 70SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.2N 109.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.8N 112.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.8N 114.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.8N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 105.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-19 11:58

WTPZ35 KNHC 191155 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
700 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 105.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

>

2019-09-19 11:57

WTPZ35 KNHC 191155
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
700 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 105.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
southern Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 105.4 West. Lorena is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) but a gradual turn
to the northwest and west-northwest is expected today and Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Lorena will continue to move near
or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane
warning area this morning, and then move back over water this
afternoon. Lorena is then expected to move away from the west-
central coast of Mexico and approach southern Baja California Sur
Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is expected today while the circulation is
interacting with the high terrain. Once Lorena moves over water
again, re-strengthening is anticipated.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue within
portions of the warning area through this afternoon. Tropical
storm and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula beginning as early Friday night
or Saturday.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-19 09:38

WTPN33 PHNC 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 19.3N 104.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 104.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.5N 105.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.2N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.7N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.2N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 24.0N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.0N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 28.0N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
191000Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 105.1W.
19SEP19. HURRICANE 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1040 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

>

2019-09-19 08:45

WTPZ45 KNHC 190843 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
400 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF LORENA IS EITHER INLAND OR HUGGING THE COAST. A LARGE
PORTION OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH
TERRAIN. GIVEN THE MICROWAVE PRESENTATION SHOWING A SMALL MID-LEVEL
EYE A FEW HOURS AGO, AND THE FACT THAT DVORAK NUMBERS HAVE NOT
CHANGED MUCH, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN KEPT GENEROUSLY AT 65
KT IN THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER, LORENA IS A VERY SMALL CYCLONE AND
THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.

SINCE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CYCLONE IS OVER LAND, SOME WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, ONCE THE CENTER
REACHES THE WARMER WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED. AFTER 2 OR 3 DAYS, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE
AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE. BY THEN, LORENA SHOULD BE OVER WATER
OR VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ONE
COMPLICATING FACTOR WHICH MAKES THIS FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT LORENA INTERACTS WITH THE CIRCULATION OF
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WHICH IS LOCATED NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SOME GLOBAL MODELS COMBINED THE CIRCULATIONS OF THE TWO CYCLONES
INTO ONE. AT THIS TIME, THE NHC FORECAST ASSUMES THAT LORENA WILL
CONTINUE AS A SEPARATE SYSTEM THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS BEING

>

2019-09-19 08:45

WTPZ45 KNHC 190843
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Satellite imagery and surface observations from Mexico indicate that
the center of Lorena is either inland or hugging the coast. A large
portion of the eastern semicircle is interacting with the high
terrain. Given the microwave presentation showing a small mid-level
eye a few hours ago, and the fact that Dvorak numbers have not
changed much, the initial intensity has been kept generously at 65
kt in this advisory. However, Lorena is a very small cyclone and
these winds are limited to a very small area near the center.

Since a large portion of the cyclone is over land, some weakening is
anticipated during the next 12 hours. However, once the center
reaches the warmer waters between Cabo Corrientes and the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula, strengthening is
indicated. After 2 or 3 days, the environment will be less favorable
and weakening should commence. By then, Lorena should be over water
or very near the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. One
complicating factor which makes this forecast highly uncertain is
the possibility that Lorena interacts with the circulation of
Tropical Storm Mario which is located not too far to the southwest.
Some global models combined the circulations of the two cyclones
into one. At this time, the NHC forecast assumes that Lorena will
continue as a separate system through five days.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north-
northwest or 330 degrees at 7 knots. The cyclone is being
steered by a persistent subtropical high over Mexico, but the
easterly flow around Mario should force Lorena on a more
west-northwest track. Beyond 3 days, track models diverge
significantly, with some bringing the cyclone west of the peninsula
and others to the east. The NHC forecast follows the previous one,
and brings Lorena as a weakening cyclone along the west coast of the
peninsula. This forecast is highly uncertain at this time.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena will be moving over or close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico today. A hurricane warning is in effect, and preparations to
protect life in property should have been completed.

2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few
days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast
is highly uncertain due to the potential for the land interaction
currently occuring. Residents should ensure that their hurricane
plan is in place as watches may be required on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 19.6N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 20.5N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 21.2N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 22.2N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 26.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 28.0N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-19 08:44

WTPZ35 KNHC 190842 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
400 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 105.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FROM MANZANILLO SOUTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

>

2019-09-19 08:44

WTPZ25 KNHC 190841 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FROM MANZANILLO SOUTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 105.0W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 70SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 105.0W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 104.8W

>

2019-09-19 08:43

WTPZ35 KNHC 190842
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 105.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
from Manzanillo southward.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern
Baja California peninsula later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 105.0 West. Lorena is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) but a gradual turn
to the northwest and west-northwest is expected today and Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Lorena will continue moving near
or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane
warning area today and move back over water later today or
Friday. Lorena is then expected to move away from the west-central
coast of Mexico and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday
night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is expected today while the circulation is
interacting with the high terrain. Once Lorena moves over water
again in 12 to 24 hours, re-strengthening is anticipated.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within
portions of the warning area and will spread northwestward along the
coast on Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to occur
today within the hurricane warning area.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-19 08:43

WTPZ25 KNHC 190841
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FROM MANZANILLO SOUTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 105.0W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 70SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 105.0W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 104.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.5N 105.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 107.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 105.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



>

2019-09-19 05:44

WTPZ35 KNHC 190540 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
100 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

...LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 104.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
WITH THE HELP OF MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATIONS, AT 100 AM

>

2019-09-19 05:42

WTPZ35 KNHC 190540
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
100 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 104.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern
Baja California peninsula on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
With the help of Mexican Navy automatic weather stations, at 100 AM
CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near
latitude 19.3 North, longitude 104.9 West. Lorena is moving toward
the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and the forward speed is
expected to decrease a bit on Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Lorena will continue moving near or over the southwestern
coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area on Thursday.
Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the
west-central coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach
southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days. However, if the center deviates a little to the right and
interacts with the high terrain, weakening could then occur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km). A Mexican Navy automatic weather station located
near Manzanillo reported a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h) when the
center of Lorena moved nearby.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within
southern portion of the warning area and will spread northwestward
along the coast on Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to
occur on Thursday within the hurricane warning area.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-19 03:32

WTPN33 PHNC 190400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 104.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 104.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.7N 105.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 20.5N 106.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.0N 107.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.4N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.6N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.6N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.4N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190400Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 104.8W.
19SEP19. HURRICANE 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1102 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-19 02:46

WTPZ45 KNHC 190244 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT LORENA'S STRUCTURE HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL RING NOTED IN
THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SOMEWHAT RAGGED, ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT A WARM SPOT
MAY BE DEVELOPING NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. OBJECTIVE SATCON AND
ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 66 KT AND 75 KT, RESPECTIVELY, WHICH IS
HIGHER THAN THE 55-KT SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE IMPROVED MICROWAVE PATTERN, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HEDGES TOWARD THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS, MAKING LORENA A
65-KT HURRICANE.

BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST HINGE ON WHETHER LORENA
SURVIVES ITS FLY-BY OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IF THE CENTER STAYS
JUST OFFSHORE, WHICH SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SHOW, THEN A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
AFTER 24 HOURS, HEADING IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL
AT THE MOMENT THAT SHOWS LORENA'S CENTER MOVING INLAND, OR
INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN ENOUGH, TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

ALL THAT BEING SAID, THE NHC TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THAT LORENA
WILL SURVIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND IT HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWESTWARD
BEYOND 36 HOURS, CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE
HCCA MODEL. BASED ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

>

2019-09-19 02:46

WTPZ45 KNHC 190244
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Earlier microwave imagery showed that Lorena's structure has
continued to improve, with a well-defined low-level ring noted in
the 37-GHz channel. The convective signature in infrared satellite
imagery is somewhat ragged, although it appears that a warm spot
may be developing near the estimated center. Objective SATCON and
ADT intensity estimates are 66 kt and 75 kt, respectively, which is
higher than the 55-kt subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB.
However, given the improved microwave pattern, the initial
intensity hedges toward the objective numbers, making Lorena a
65-kt hurricane.

Both the track and intensity forecast hinge on whether Lorena
survives its fly-by of the coast of Mexico. If the center stays
just offshore, which several of the models show, then a
strengthening ridge over northern Mexico should steer the cyclone
northwestward and west-northwestward away from west-central Mexico
after 24 hours, heading in the general direction of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. The ECMWF is the only model
at the moment that shows Lorena's center moving inland, or
interacting with the high terrain enough, to dissipate within the
next 12-24 hours.

All that being said, the NHC track forecast assumes that Lorena
will survive the next 24 hours, and it has been nudged southwestward
beyond 36 hours, close to the multi-model consensus aids and the
HCCA model. Based on this track, environmental conditions appear
favorable for further strengthening during the next couple of days.
Weakening should commence by day 3 once the system encounters areas
of higher shear and significantly lower oceanic heat content values.

As already insinuated above, due the potential for land interaction
within the next 12-24 hours, there is greater than usual uncertainty
in both the track and intensity forecast for Lorena through day 5.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena will be dangerously close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico tonight and on Thursday. A hurricane warning is in effect,
and preparations to protect life in property should have been
completed.

2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few
days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast
is more uncertain due to the potential for land interaction tonight
and Thursday. Residents should ensure that their hurricane plan is
in place as watches may be required on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 18.7N 104.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 19.7N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 21.0N 107.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 21.4N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 22.6N 111.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 24.6N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 26.4N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-19 02:46

WTPZ35 KNHC 190243 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COLIMA...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 104.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

>

2019-09-19 02:45

WTPZ35 KNHC 190243
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COLIMA...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 104.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern
Baja California peninsula on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 104.7 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and the forward
speed is expected to decrease a bit on Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Lorena is expected to move near or over the
southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area
tonight and Thursday. Lorena is then expected to move
west-northwestward away from the west-central coast of Mexico late
Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday
night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within
southern portion of the warning area and will spread northwestward
along the coast on Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to
occur later tonight and on Thursday within the hurricane warning
area.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-19 02:45

WTPZ25 KNHC 190242 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.7W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 80SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.7W AT 19/0300Z

>

2019-09-19 02:44

WTPZ25 KNHC 190242
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.7W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 80SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.7W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 104.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.7N 105.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.0N 107.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.4N 109.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 111.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.6N 113.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.4N 115.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 104.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-18 23:54

WTPZ35 KNHC 182351 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
700 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

...LORENA'S CENTER OBLIQUELY APPROACHING THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND
SOUTHERN JALISCO...
...RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 104.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
. CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

>

2019-09-18 23:53

WTPZ35 KNHC 182351
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
700 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...LORENA'S CENTER OBLIQUELY APPROACHING THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND
SOUTHERN JALISCO...
...RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 104.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern
Baja California peninsula this evening or overnight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 104.3 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the
southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area
tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move
west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late
Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday
night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast tonight, and Lorena is forecast to
become a hurricane as it nears the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Additional strengthening is possible when Lorena moves west of the
coast of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely spreading onshore
within the warning area. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin
later tonight within the hurricane warning area and will spread
northwestward along the coast on Thursday.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-18 21:51

WTPN33 PHNC 182200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 104.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 104.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.2N 105.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.1N 106.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.7N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.2N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.5N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 24.5N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.6N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182200Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 104.4W.
18SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1150
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190400Z, 191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-18 20:51

WTPZ35 KNHC 182048 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
400 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

...CENTER OF LORENA TO PASS VERY CLOSE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY..
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 104.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
. CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

>

2019-09-18 20:50

WTPZ45 KNHC 182048 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
400 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT IN
BANDING AROUND THE CENTER OF LORENA THIS AFTERNOON. BANDS NOW WRAP
COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGES TO SEE IF AN EYE HAS DEVELOPED. THE INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION HAS LED TO HIGHER OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY FROM
UW/CIMSS, AND A BLEND OF THE SAB AND ADT ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY, AND LORENA
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT WHILE IT MOVES OVER WARM
WATER WITH LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE STORM IS PREDICTED TO MOVE VERY
CLOSE TO OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH LAND INTERACTION OCCURS AND THE EVENTUAL
STRUCTURE OF THE STORM AFTERWARD. IF LORENA MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS LIKELY AND THE
STORM WOULD STRUGGLE TO RE-STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE NEW
NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHTLY LESS INTERACTION OF THE CORE OF
THE CYCLONE WITH LAND, AND ASSUMES LORENA WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND IT MOVES OVER VERY
WARM WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

LORENA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/11 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE, WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE CENTER
INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT JUST OFFSHORE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST

>

2019-09-18 20:50

WTPZ45 KNHC 182048
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Visible satellite imagery has continued to show an improvement in
banding around the center of Lorena this afternoon. Bands now wrap
completely around the center, but there have been no recent
microwave images to see if an eye has developed. The increase in
organization has led to higher objective satellite intensity from
UW/CIMSS, and a blend of the SAB and ADT estimates yields an initial
intensity of 60 kt. Additional strengthening is likely, and Lorena
is forecast to become a hurricane tonight while it moves over warm
water with low shear conditions. The storm is predicted to move very
close to or over the southwestern coast of Mexico later tonight and
early Thursday, and the remainder of the intensity forecast will
depend on how much land interaction occurs and the eventual
structure of the storm afterward. If Lorena moves to the right of
the official forecast, more significant weakening is likely and the
storm would struggle to re-strengthen later in the period. The new
NHC track forecast shows slightly less interaction of the core of
the cyclone with land, and assumes Lorena will be able to continue
strengthening while the shear remains low and it moves over very
warm waters southeast of the Baja California peninsula.

Lorena is moving northwestward or 320/11 kt. The track guidance
remains about the same as before, with the ECMWF taking the center
inland over southwestern Mexico while most of the remainder of the
guidance keeps it just offshore. The NHC forecast is slightly west
of the previous advisory through 24 hours, but continues to show the
center passing very close to southwestern Mexico. After that time,
a narrow mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the north of
Lorena, and this should lead to a west-northwestward motion with
Lorena passing near or just south of the southern tip of the Baja
Peninsula. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the
HFIP corrected consensus.

Due the potential for land interaction within the next 12-24 hours,
there is greater than usual uncertainty in both the track and
intensity forecast for Lorena through day 5.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane and move dangerously
close to the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight and Thursday.
A hurricane warning is in effect and preparations to protect life in
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast
is more uncertain due to the potential for land interaction tonight
and Thursday. Residents should ensure that their hurricane plan is
in place as watches may be required tonight or Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 17.9N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 19.2N 105.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 20.1N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 20.7N 107.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 21.2N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 22.5N 110.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 24.5N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 26.6N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-18 20:49

WTPZ35 KNHC 182048
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...CENTER OF LORENA TO PASS VERY CLOSE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY..
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 104.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Baja California del Sur should monitor the progress
of Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern
Baja California peninsula this evening or overnight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 104.4 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the
southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area
tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move
west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late
Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Friday
night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast tonight, and Lorena is forecast to
become a hurricane as it nears the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Additional strengthening is possible when Lorena moves west of the
coast of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area as early as this evening, and then will spread
northwestward tonight and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions will
first reach the coast within the hurricane warning area within the
next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion
of the tropical storm warning area in the next few hours, and will
spread northward along the coast through Thursday night.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-18 20:48

WTPZ25 KNHC 182045 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
. CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.4W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 80SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.4W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.2N 105.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

>

2019-09-18 20:47

WTPZ25 KNHC 182045
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.4W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 80SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.4W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.2N 105.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.1N 106.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.7N 107.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.2N 108.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.5N 110.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.6N 115.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 104.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-18 17:48

WTPZ35 KNHC 181745 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
100 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 104.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
. CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LORENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST. LORENA IS

>

2019-09-18 17:46

WTPZ35 KNHC 181745
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
100 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 104.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Baja California del Sur should monitor the progress
of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 104.0 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the
southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area
tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move
west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late
Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Friday
night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours, and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane as it
nears the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area as early as this evening, and then will spread
northwestward tonight and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions will
first reach the coast within the hurricane warning area later today.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern
portion of the tropical storm warning area later today, and then
are expected to spread northward along the coast through
Thursday night.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-18 16:03

WTPN33 PHNC 181600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 103.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 103.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.6N 104.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.8N 105.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 20.5N 106.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.2N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.4N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.0N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.7N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181600Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 103.6W.
18SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1206
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-18 14:54

WTPZ45 KNHC 181452 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

LORENA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING, WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE, AND SEVERAL BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 55 KT, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES FROM SAB, AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS. LORENA
IS LOCATED WITHIN FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS, AND
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, LORENA'S INTENSITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
INTERACTION OCCURS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TAKES THE CENTER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND SHOWS SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING AS THIS OCCURS.
AFTER THAT TIME, RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS LORENA IS FORECAST
TO TRAVERSE WARM WATERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE
UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION.

LORENA HAS MOVED A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. RECENT
MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATED A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 325/11 KT.
LORENA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OVERALL TRACK ENVELOPE HAS NUDGED
EASTWARD, CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. IN FACT, THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE CENTER OF LORENA ONSHORE TONIGHT, AND THAT IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN
NUDGED EASTWARD, AND LIES BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ECMWF MODEL

>

2019-09-18 14:53

WTPZ45 KNHC 181452
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Lorena's cloud pattern has improved this morning, with the
development of a central dense overcast feature, and several bands
wrapping around the circulation. The initial intensity has been
increased to 55 kt, which is in agreement subjective satellite
estimates from SAB, and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS. Lorena
is located within favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions, and
additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24
hours. After that time, Lorena's intensity will depend on how much
interaction occurs with the mountainous terrain of southwestern
Mexico. The latest NHC forecast takes the center along the
immediate coast and shows some slight weakening as this occurs.
After that time, re-strengthening is possible as Lorena is forecast
to traverse warm waters to the southeast of the Baja California
peninsula. It should be noted that the intensity forecast is more
uncertain than normal due to the potential for land interaction.

Lorena has moved a little right of the previous track. Recent
microwave fixes indicated a northwestward motion of 325/11 kt.
Lorena is forecast to move northwestward around the southwestern
portion of mid-level ridge. The overall track envelope has nudged
eastward, closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico. In fact, the
ECMWF brings the center of Lorena onshore tonight, and that is a
distinct possibility. The early portion of the NHC track has been
nudged eastward, and lies between the aforementioned ECMWF model
track and the various consensus aids. After 24 hours, most of the
guidance turns Lorena west-northwestward as a narrow ridge builds to
the north of the cyclone. During this portion of the track
forecast, the guidance has shifted to the right, and the NHC
forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane and move dangerously
close to the coast of southwestern Mexico later today and tonight.
A hurricane warning has been issued for this area and preparations
to protect life in property should be rushed to completion.

2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 17.4N 103.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.6N 104.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 21.2N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 22.4N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 112.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 26.7N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-18 14:40

WTPZ35 KNHC 181437 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 103.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
. CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LORENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

>

2019-09-18 14:40

WTPZ25 KNHC 181437 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
. CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 80SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.2W

>

2019-09-18 14:39

WTPZ35 KNHC 181437
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 103.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
southwestern coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Cabo
Corrientes.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
southwestern coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Baja California del Sur should monitor the progress
of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 103.5 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the
southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area
tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move
west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late
Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Friday
night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 hours, and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane as
it nears the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area as early as this evening, and then will spread
northwestward tonight and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions will
first reach the coast within the hurricane warning area later today.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern
portion of the tropical storm warning area later today, and then
are expected to spread northward along the coast through
Thursday night.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-18 14:38

WTPZ25 KNHC 181437
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 80SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.6N 104.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N 107.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 112.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.7N 114.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 103.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

2019-09-18 11:59

WTPZ35 KNHC 181157 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
700 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 103.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES


A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A SLOWER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE

>

2019-09-18 11:58

WTPZ35 KNHC 181157
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
700 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 103.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
southwestern coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Cabo
Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes


A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 103.1 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the
southwestern coast of Mexico Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Lorena is expected to become a hurricane on Friday as it approaches
the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern
portion of the warning area later today or tonight, and then are
expected to spread northward along the coast through Thursday
night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-18 10:25

WTPZ45 KNHC 180858 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
400 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0352 UTC ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATE
THAT LORENA HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS
SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED A BIT DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE
IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GFS AND ECMWF DECAY SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS
BOTH INDICATE THAT THIS UPPER WIND PATTERN WILL LINGER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY, GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DSHPS AND THE
NOAA HFIP HCCA INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL, AND LORENA IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT PERIOD, WEAKENING SHOULD
COMMENCE AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES DECREASING OCEANIC SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOVES WITHIN INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.

AN ALTERNATIVE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR LORENA TO DISSIPATE IF
THE CENTER MOVES ONSHORE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WHICH THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 310/12 KT.
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER MEXICO FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO STEER LORENA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH DAY 5. THIS
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NHC FORECAST

>

2019-09-18 10:25

WTPZ45 KNHC 180858
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Satellite imagery and a 0352 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicate
that Lorena has strengthened this morning. Subjective and
objective intensity estimates as well as the scatterometer overpass
support increasing the initial intensity to 50 kt for this advisory.

Although the cloud pattern has improved a bit during the past
several hours, moderate northeasterly shear still appears to be
impinging on the northern portion of the cyclone. The
statistical-dynamical GFS and ECMWF Decay SHIPS intensity models
both indicate that this upper wind pattern will linger the
next couple of days. Consequently, gradual strengthening is
expected which is consistent with the aforementioned DSHPS and the
NOAA HFIP HCCA intensity consensus model, and Lorena is forecast to
become a hurricane in 48 hours. Beyond that period, weakening should
commence as the cyclone traverses decreasing oceanic sea surface
temperatures and moves within increasing westerly shear.

An alternative intensity forecast is for Lorena to dissipate if
the center moves onshore in southwestern Mexico which the ECMWF is
showing.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/12 kt.
A deep-layer ridge extending westward over Mexico from the western
Gulf of Mexico is forecast to steer Lorena toward the northwest
with a slight reduction in forward speed through day 5. This
persistent synoptic steering flow should bring the cyclone near the
southwestern coast of Mexico Thursday and Friday. The NHC forecast
is a little faster than the previous one and follows the NOAA HFIP
HCCA consensus which keeps the cyclone offshore.


Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 16.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 17.4N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 19.4N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 20.1N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 23.2N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-18 10:25

WTPZ35 KNHC 180857 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
400 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

...LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 103.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A SLOWER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LORENA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND LORENA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON

>

2019-09-18 10:25

WTPZ35 KNHC 180857
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 103.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 103.0 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days.
Lorena is forecast to move near or over the southwestern coast of
Mexico Thursday or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further slow strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane on
Friday as it approaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern
portion of the warning area by late Wednesday or early Thursday, and
then are expected to spread northward along the coast through late
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-18 10:17

WTPN33 PHNC 181000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 15.7N 102.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 102.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.4N 104.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.5N 104.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.4N 105.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.1N 106.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.5N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 23.2N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 25.6N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181000Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 103.1W.
18SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1289
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181600Z, 182200Z, 190400Z AND 191000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-18 08:59

WTPZ25 KNHC 180857 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.0W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 80SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.0W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.4N 104.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.4N 105.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W

>

2019-09-18 08:58

WTPZ25 KNHC 180857
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.0W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 80SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.0W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.4N 104.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.4N 105.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N 111.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.6N 112.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 103.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

2019-09-18 05:44

WTPZ35 KNHC 180541 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
100 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

...LORENA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 102.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A SLOWER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LORENA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LORENA APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)

>

2019-09-18 05:42

WTPZ35 KNHC 180541
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
100 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...LORENA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 102.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.6 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days.
Lorena is forecast to move near or over the southwestern coast of
Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern
portion of the warning area by late Wednesday or early Thursday, and
then are expected to spread northward along the coast through late
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-18 03:29

WTPN33 PHNC 180400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 14.7N 101.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 101.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.3N 103.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.7N 104.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.6N 104.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.3N 105.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.6N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.0N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.5N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180400Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 102.1W.
18SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1368
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181000Z, 181600Z, 182200Z AND 190400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-18 03:01

WTPZ45 KNHC 180258 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF LORENA SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY, WITH THE STORM HAVING A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE
FEATURE AND A RAGGED BAND IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A RECENTLY-
RECEIVED WINDSAT OVERPASS INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SUBJECTIVE
SATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/13. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO SHOULD STEER LORENA GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE
CENTER LIKELY TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK KEEPS
THE CENTER OF LORENA A LITTLE FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK
WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND CAUSE
RAPID DISSIPATION. IF THE CENTER STAYS OFFSHORE, LORENA IS FORECAST
TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING AS LORENA
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. BASED ON THE FORECAST
TRACK NOW STAYING OFFSHORE, THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A
STRONGER STORM BY 48-72 H, WITH LORENA NOW FORECAST TO BE JUST UNDER
HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS PEAK WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING

>

2019-09-18 03:00

WTPZ35 KNHC 180257 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019

...LORENA CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WHILE CONTINUING
NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 102.1W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A SLOWER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LORENA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
LORENA APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)

>

2019-09-18 03:00

WTPZ25 KNHC 180257 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.1W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.1W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.3N 103.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.7N 104.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.6N 104.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.3N 105.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 107.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

>

2019-09-18 02:59

WTPZ45 KNHC 180258
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

There has been little change in the cloud structure of Lorena since
the last advisory, with the storm having a central convective
feature and a ragged band in the western semicircle. A recently-
received WindSat overpass indicates the low-level center is located
near the northwestern edge of the central convection. The initial
intensity remains 45 kt in good agreement with a subjective
satellite estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 305/13. A mid- to upper-level ridge over
Mexico should steer Lorena generally northwestward with some
decrease in forward speed during the forecast period, with the
center likely to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico late
Wednesday through Thursday. The guidance has shifted a little to
the left since the last advisory, and the new forecast track keeps
the center of Lorena a little farther offshore than than the
previous forecast. However, any motion to the right of the track
would bring the center onshore in southwestern Mexico and cause
rapid dissipation. If the center stays offshore, Lorena is forecast
to be near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by
the end of the forecast period.

Conditions appear favorable for slow strengthening as Lorena
approaches the southwestern coast of Mexico. Based on the forecast
track now staying offshore, the new intensity forecast calls for a
stronger storm by 48-72 h, with Lorena now forecast to be just under
hurricane strength. This peak would be followed by a weakening
trend as Lorena gradually moves over cooler water. An alternative
intensity forecast is for Lorena to dissipate if the center moves
onshore in southwestern Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 15.1N 102.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 16.3N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 17.7N 104.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 18.6N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 19.3N 105.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 20.6N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 22.0N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-18 02:59

WTPZ35 KNHC 180257
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...LORENA CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WHILE CONTINUING
NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 102.1W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 102.1 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days.
Lorena is forecast to move near or over the southwestern coast
of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as
Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern
portion of the watch area by late Wednesday or early Thursday, and
then are expected to spread northward along the coast through late
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-18 02:58

WTPZ25 KNHC 180257
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.1W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.1W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.3N 103.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.7N 104.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.6N 104.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.3N 105.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 107.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 102.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-17 23:45

WTPZ35 KNHC 172342 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
700 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019

...LORENA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 101.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST. THE TROPICAL
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A SLOWER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LORENA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LORENA APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)

>

2019-09-17 23:44

WTPZ35 KNHC 172342
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...LORENA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 101.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 101.6 West. The tropical
storm is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days.
Lorena is forecast to move over or very near the southwestern coast
of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern
portion of the watch area by late Wednesday or early Thursday and
could then spread northward along the coast through late Thursday.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-17 21:55

WTPN33 PHNC 172200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 100.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 100.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.7N 102.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.3N 103.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.5N 104.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.2N 104.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.5N 106.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.0N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 23.5N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172200Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 101.3W.
17SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1428
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND 182200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-17 20:45

WTPZ45 KNHC 172041 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019

A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES SAMPLED THE CIRCULATION OF LORENA EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOWED MULTIPLE 40-45 KT WIND VECTORS. BASED ON
THAT DATA, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. LORENA'S CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH DVORAK-BASED WIND ESTIMATES ARE STILL
NOTABLY LOWER THAN THE ASCAT WINDS.

THE TRACK MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT, AND THERE HAS
BEEN A LARGE SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, SINCE
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS PREVIOUSLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT WAS MADE TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. LORENA IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND SHOULD MOVE OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY. IF THE CIRCULATION SURVIVES ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND, IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO HEAD NORTHWESTWARD, PERHAPS TOWARD THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THAT SAID, THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL, AND LORENA MAY END UP JUST DISSIPATING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO
TVCN AND HCCA, ESPECIALLY THROUGH 72 H, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST HAS INCREASED.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS STRENGTHENED, AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING. ONCE THE CIRCULATION APPROACHES
THE COAST OF MEXICO, ITS INTENSITY WILL BECOME CLOSELY TIED TO ITS
TRACK. IF LORENA MOVES INLAND, IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN QUICKLY AND

>

2019-09-17 20:43

WTPZ45 KNHC 172041
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

A pair of ASCAT passes sampled the circulation of Lorena earlier
this afternoon and showed multiple 40-45 kt wind vectors. Based on
that data, the initial wind speed has been increased to 45 kt for
this advisory. Lorena's cloud structure has improved somewhat
during the afternoon, though Dvorak-based wind estimates are still
notably lower than the ASCAT winds.

The track models have come into much better agreement, and there has
been a large shift eastward in the track guidance. However, since
the NHC track forecast was previously on the east side of the
guidance envelope, only a slight eastward shift was made to the
official forecast. Lorena is still expected to move generally
northwestward for the next day or two, and should move over or very
near the southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday or early
Thursday. If the circulation survives its interaction with land, it
should continue to head northwestward, perhaps toward the Baja
California peninsula. That said, this portion of the forecast is
highly conditional, and Lorena may end up just dissipating over the
high terrain of Mexico. The NHC track forecast is now very close to
TVCN and HCCA, especially through 72 h, and confidence in the track
forecast has increased.

The tropical storm has strengthened, and conditions appear favorable
for additional slow strengthening. Once the circulation approaches
the coast of Mexico, its intensity will become closely tied to its
track. If Lorena moves inland, it will likely weaken quickly and
could dissipate entirely shortly thereafter. If it stays offshore,
it could maintain its strength and even intensify further as it
moves away from the coast of Mexico later this week, as shown by the
HWRF, DSHP, and LGEM models. The NHC intensity forecast is
consistent with the track forecast, and therefore shows Lorena
weakening due to land interaction after 48 h, but is below the
intensity consensus since a number of those models keep the cyclone
farther from the coast.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 14.6N 101.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 15.7N 102.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 17.3N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 19.2N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 20/1800Z 20.5N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 23.5N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-17 20:43

WTPZ35 KNHC 172040 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019

...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 101.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST. THE
TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H).
A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. LORENA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH

>

2019-09-17 20:43

WTPZ25 KNHC 172040 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 100.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.7N 102.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.3N 103.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 104.8W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

>

2019-09-17 20:41

WTPZ35 KNHC 172040
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 101.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Watch from
Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 101.3 West. The
tropical storm is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).
A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. Lorena is forecast to move over or very near the southwestern
coast of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional gradual strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern
portion of the watch area by late Wednesday or early Thursday and
could then spread northward along the coast through late Thursday.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-17 20:41

WTPZ25 KNHC 172040
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 100.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.7N 102.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.3N 103.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 104.8W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 101.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-17 17:40

WTPZ35 KNHC 171738 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019

...TROPICAL STORM LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO BY
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 100.4W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST. THE
TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H).
A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY.

RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT LORENA'S MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE

>

2019-09-17 17:40

WTPZ35 KNHC 171738
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
100 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL STORM LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO BY
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 100.4W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. The
tropical storm is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).
A northwestward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected for
the next couple of days. Lorena is expected to move near the
southwest coast of Mexico by Thursday.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Lorena's maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued gradual strengthening is anticipated during the
next couple of days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the southern
portion of the watch area by late Wednesday or early Thursday and
could then spread northward along the coast through late Thursday.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-17 16:05

WTPN33 PHNC 171600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161552ZSEP2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 13.3N 99.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 99.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.8N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.3N 102.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.5N 103.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.5N 104.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 20.0N 106.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.0N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.0N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171600Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 100.1W.
17SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1508 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z. REFER
TO HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 161600).//
NNNN

>

2019-09-17 14:58

WTPZ45 KNHC 171456 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019

FIRST-LIGHT 1-MINUTE VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM GOES-W REVEALED THAT THE
DISTURBANCE JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AN EXTENSIVE
CONVECTIVE BAND STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES OVERNIGHT SHOWED
WINDS WERE ALREADY AT TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH, SO THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL STORM LORENA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 35 KT, THOUGH THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED WINDS COULD ACTUALLY
ALREADY BE HIGHER THAN THAT, SO THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.

LORENA IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, OR 305/13 KT. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD KEEP IT
MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AT A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO, HOWEVER SOME OF THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE TRACK MODELS,
INCLUDING THE GFS, SEEM TO HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SMALL
CYCLONE, AND SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS
SMALL DIFFERENCE IS IMPORTANT AND COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
LORENA DIRECTLY IMPACTING MEXICO OR PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE FAR RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE,
FAVORING THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS, WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A MORE
REALISTIC CURRENT DEPICTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NHC
FORECAST IS ON THE FAR RIGHT SIDE OF THE STANDARD GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, BUT IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THIS BRINGS

>

2019-09-17 14:58

WTPZ35 KNHC 171456 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019

...TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORMS JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 100.0W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO BY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

>

2019-09-17 14:57

WTPZ45 KNHC 171456
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

First-light 1-minute visible imagery from GOES-W revealed that the
disturbance just south of Mexico has developed a well-defined
surface center. The system has also developed an extensive
convective band stretching from the southwest to the northeast
quadrant of the cyclone. A pair of ASCAT passes overnight showed
winds were already at tropical-storm strength, so the system has
been designated as Tropical Storm Lorena. The initial intensity is
set at 35 kt, though the ASCAT data showed winds could actually
already be higher than that, so that may be conservative.

Lorena is moving quickly toward the northwest, or 305/13 kt. A
mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico should keep it
moving generally northwestward for the next few days, at a slightly
slower speed. Most of the dynamical models show this general
scenario, however some of the typically reliable track models,
including the GFS, seem to have trouble resolving the small
cyclone, and show the cyclone moving more west-northwestward. This
small difference is important and could be the difference between
Lorena directly impacting Mexico or passing just to the southwest.
The NHC forecast is on the far right side of the guidance envelope,
favoring the ECMWF and UKMET solutions, which seem to have a more
realistic current depiction of the tropical cyclone. The NHC
forecast is on the far right side of the standard guidance
envelope, but is near the middle of the ECMWF ensemble. This brings
Lorena very near the Mexico coast in about 2 days and it is possible
that the storm could make landfall. At longer ranges the GFS depicts
the beginning of a binary interaction between Lorena and the
newly-formed depression to the west, however at the moment this does
not seem particularly likely, and the NHC forecast favors the ECMWF
through day 5 which shows no such interaction.

Moderate easterly shear appears to be affecting the tropical storm
for now, and this will likely be the primary moderating factor for
Lorena's intensity. SSTs are very warm and there is ample moisture,
but only slow intensification is likely as long as the shear
persists. The NHC forecast therefore shows slow strengthening for
the next couple of days. Beyond that time, if the cyclone moves
inland, it should quickly weaken or possibly dissipate, but if it
stays farther offshore it may have an opportunity to strengthen
further. The NHC forecast holds the cyclone nearly steady-state, but
it is well below the consensus at day 4 and 5, since most of the
intensity models are based on tracks that stay well offshore of
Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 13.7N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 14.8N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 16.3N 102.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 17.5N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 18.5N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 20.0N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 21.0N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-17 14:57

WTPZ35 KNHC 171456
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORMS JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 100.0W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 100.0 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward
motion at a slightly slower speed is expected for the next couple
of days. Lorena is expected to move near the southwest coast of
Mexico by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next couple of days
as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Wednesday or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-17 14:57

WTPZ25 KNHC 171455 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 100.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 100.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 99.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.8N 101.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.3N 102.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 103.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 104.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N 106.3W

>

2019-09-17 14:57

WTPZ25 KNHC 171455
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 100.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 100.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 99.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.8N 101.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.3N 102.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 103.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 104.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N 106.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 100.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>