Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for LORENA-19 in Mexico from 17 Sep 2019 15:00 UTC to 22 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-19

in Mexico

18 Sep 2019 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LORENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	4.7 m (18 Sep 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	72 km/h	4.7 m	372 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	4.7 m	432 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

Up to 10 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	12,849

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	17 Sep 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Sep 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	18 Sep 2019 00:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
750-1000 mm	United States	4,734
500-750 mm	United States, Mexico	67,845	+
	United States	65,337
	Mexico	2,508
250-500 mm	United States, Mexico	1,654,421	+
	United States	378,571
	Mexico	1,275,850
100-250 mm	United States, Mexico	8,641,149	+
	United States	7,237,732
	Mexico	1,403,417
50-100 mm	United States, Mexico	4,800,918	+
	United States	1,432,403
	Mexico	3,368,515

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	17 Sep 2019 00:00	356	70 thousand	-	-	-	-	Mexico
2	17 Sep 2019 12:00	496	20 thousand	-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico
3	18 Sep 2019 00:00	880	10.4 million				-	United States, Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

4.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 4.7m in Rancho Nuevo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 18 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Rancho Nuevo	Mexico	4.7
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Rancho de Piedra	Mexico	4.7
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Tecolutla	Mexico	4.5
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	La Guadalupe	Mexico	4.5
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Monte Gordo	Mexico	4.5
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Buen Pais	Mexico	4.1
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Alvarado	Mexico	4.1
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Conejo	Mexico	4.1
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Las Barrillas	Mexico	3.6
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Coatzacoalcos	Mexico	3.6
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Pueblo Viejo	Mexico	3.4
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Primero de Mayo	Mexico	3.4
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Tampico Alta	Mexico	3.4
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Tamiahua	Mexico	2.7
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	El Naranjal	Mexico	2.7
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Nautla	Mexico	2.6
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	El Laurel	Mexico	2.6
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	La Pesca	Mexico	2.3
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	San Cosme	Mexico	2.3
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Santa Marta	Mexico	2.3
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Tepeguahe	Mexico	1.7
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Los Pericos	Mexico	1.7
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Ursulo Galvan	Mexico	1.5
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon	Mexico	1.3
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Laja	Mexico	1.3
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Chiltepec	Mexico	0.9
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Laguna Heights	United States	0.9
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Port Isabel	United States	0.9
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Kopernik Shores	United States	0.9
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	South Padre Island	United States	0.9
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Boca Chica	United States	0.9
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	La Presita	Mexico	0.7
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Las Guayabas	Mexico	0.5
	18 Sep 2019 08:45	Johnson's Bayou	United States	0.3
	18 Sep 2019 08:45	Constance Beach	United States	0.3
	18 Sep 2019 08:45	Peveto Beach	United States	0.3
	18 Sep 2019 08:45	Holly Beach	United States	0.3
	18 Sep 2019 09:00	Sabine	United States	0.3
	18 Sep 2019 08:30	Cameron	United States	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 08:45	High Island	United States	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 08:00	Oak Grove	United States	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 01:15	Aguaje	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 01:15	Ojo de Liebre	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 07:45	Grand Chenier	United States	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 01:45	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 01:30	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 08:45	Gilchrist	United States	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 08:45	Bolivar Peninsula	United States	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 08:45	Caplen	United States	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 00:30	San Felipe	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 05:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2019 09:00	Crystal Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 09:00	Patton	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 07:45	Flake	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 07:45	Elmgrove	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 02:45	Orange Grove	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 02:45	Peary Place	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 02:45	Flour Bluff	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 04:15	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 04:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 04:15	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 07:30	Port Bolivar	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 07:30	Fort Travis	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 06:30	Cedros	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 04:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 04:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 11:45	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 11:45	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:15	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 11:45	Arista	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 02:00	Solo Dios	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 11:45	Huajapan	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 01:45	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:45	Rincon	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:45	Punta	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:45	Faria	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:45	Dulah	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:45	San Buenaventura	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:45	Ventura	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 06:15	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 02:00	Buenavista	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:30	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:15	Avalon	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 02:45	El Martillo	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 02:45	Yarborough	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:45	Serena Park	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:45	Franciscan Village	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:45	Carpinteria	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:45	Shepards	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 02:30	Boqueron	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 02:30	Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:45	Montecito	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:45	Summerland	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 11:15	Garrapateras	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 11:15	Majada Villalobos	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 03:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Molino	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 02:30	La Concepion	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 02:30	Barra de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:45	Hollywood By The Sea	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:45	Channel Islands Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 05:45	Oxnard	United States	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 07:30	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 00:30	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 00:30	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 07:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2019 02:15	La Majada	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.