Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 in Oman from 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 03 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21

in Oman

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	76 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (25 Sep 11:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	76 km/h	0.2 m	258 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	158 km/h	0.5 m	591 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

158 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	India	855,259
100-250 mm	India	7,946,726
50-100 mm	India	24,318,910

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	363	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	33	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	185	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	700	8.8 million				-	-	-	India

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Golbania, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 25 Sep 2021 11:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Golbania	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Char Bagala	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Debpur	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Bhaylabania	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Chalitabunia	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Char Hare	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Neta	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Chhota Baisdia	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Andar Char	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Burirchar	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Char Lakshmi	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Char Manika	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:30	Akri	India	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Ghuar Mota	India	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Kukuri Mukuri	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Aicha	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Paila	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Chapli	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Bara Baliatali	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Kalapara	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Kuakata	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Mahipur	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 10:45	Bada	Pakistan	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:45	Cheru	Pakistan	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:45	Sonmiani	Pakistan	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Jubayl Industrial City	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Jubayl	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Chudeswar	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Salaya	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Bambu Khan	Pakistan	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Goth Jumo	Pakistan	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Aramda	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Hormoz	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Arzeni	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Jhankhar	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Sika	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Jambura	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Jodiya	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Fanatir	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Jhol	Pakistan	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Gadanjo	Pakistan	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Bandar Abbas	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 09:15	Keti	Pakistan	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Mish ab	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	As Saffaniyah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Tuna	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:15	Suthri	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	New Kandla	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Mundra	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Dogerdan	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Gahira	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Dhurung	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Khankhanabad	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Lemsikhali	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Napura	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Ywathitke	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Sittwe	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Kangyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Aindin	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Pyaingdaung	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Kyaukpyinseik	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Supati	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Bara Patharghata	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Chhota Nishanbaria Chak	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Dhalua	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Bara Bagi	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Chhota Bagi	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Chandkhali	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Navinal	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Ali Akbardeil	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Magnama	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Dakhinpara	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Kanyinchaung	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Jaliapara	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Nyaunggyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Zawmadat	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Anauk Myinhlut	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Kyaukpandu	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:15	Bijavbati	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:30	Khargun	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Khawwari	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Manifah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Qeshm	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Dakhin Patenga	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Anowara	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Bandar-e Dargaham	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Bhadia	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 09:45	Khawr Kalba	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 09:45	Bu Baqarah	Oman	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 09:45	Shinas	Oman	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 09:45	Dawanij	Oman	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 09:45	Al Liwa	Oman	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 09:45	Suhar	Oman	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Jahajmara	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Maijchara	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Sagaria	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Ishwar Ray	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Ishwar	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Dublat	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Lakshia	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Kalapul	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:30	Kuhestak	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Hisn Diba	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Haffah	Oman	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Adgat	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Maroli	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Daman	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Udvada	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:30	Larak Kuhi	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Mandvi	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.